The IMF recently reported that Russia has entered a recession and warned that economic growth will further contract if Western sanctions are increased. The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell sharply in May due to the impact of sanctions over Russia's actions in Crimea. Industrial production growth increased in April but overall economic growth remains weak, forecast at just 0.5% for 2014 compared to original predictions of 2.5% growth. Russia signed a $400 billion gas deal with China aimed at boosting infrastructure investment.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Economic growth remains weak at 0.9% in Q1 2014, down from 1.3% in Q1 2013, due to sanctions and a weakening currency. Inflation rose in May to its highest since 2011. Industrial production grew 2.8% in May, led by a 4.4% rise in manufacturing. However, car sales declined 12.2% in May from a year ago as higher inflation and a weaker ruble hurt consumer spending. The economic outlook remains challenging amid geopolitical tensions.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills. Russia's economy faces issues like a weakening currency, high inflation, and stalled growth. GDP growth slowed to just 0.9% in Q1 2014, well below forecasts. Industrial production grew in May but car sales declined sharply. Sanctions and tensions continue to weigh on the economic outlook for Russia.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in May amid rising concerns about household finances, spending on big ticket items, and long-term business conditions. Consumer confidence declined across all income groups, though higher income households were less affected. Consumers expressed growing worries about current economic conditions and the future path of inflation, interest rates, and employment prospects. Spending indicators such as durable buying conditions and car purchases also fell as consumers grew more cautious.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013, its lowest since 2009, and that Russia's annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, forcing a rise in interest rates and downward revisions to growth forecasts.
The document summarizes the economic landscape in Russia in April 2014. It notes that Russian GDP contracted in Q1 2014 and full-year growth forecasts have been revised down to just 0.5% due to sanctions and turmoil in Ukraine. Industrial production growth slowed in March while car sales were stable. Inflation remains high and the central bank does not plan to ease monetary policy. The economic outlook is uncertain as tensions in Ukraine continue.
The sharp fall in Russian markets was an overreaction to protests in Moscow following parliamentary elections. While events in other countries sparked regime changes, Russia's political consequences will likely unfold gradually. The protests were also not unprecedented and should not have justified the large sell-off. More important short-term issues for Russian investors include the EU debt crisis, China's economic growth, and oil prices. While not dismissing the protests, Russia's stable macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from those in countries experiencing Arab Spring uprisings. Changes in Russia are expected slowly rather than dramatically as public frustration has grown with a new middle class and expectations of reform.
The document is a monthly business report from MNI Indicators on business sentiment in Russia. Some key points:
- The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose in July to the highest level in three months, though it remains below levels at the start of 2014 due to economic weakness and geopolitical tensions from Russia's actions in Ukraine.
- Production conditions for large Russian companies slumped to a seven-month low in July, while new orders and export orders improved for the second straight month.
- Companies have been reducing inventories but the pace of decline has slowed, with the inventories indicator just below neutral levels. Input prices declined for the fourth month in a row.
- Access to credit
London, 20 December 2013. Russian business confidence ended the year at a record low with the MNI Russia Business Indicator falling to 45.5 in December. Production and New Orders fell sharply. While companies were slightly less pessimistic about the next three months compared with November, the overall weakness of the survey points to a further weakening in growth.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine. Economic growth remains weak at 0.9% in Q1 2014, down from 1.3% in Q1 2013, due to sanctions and a weakening currency. Inflation rose in May to its highest since 2011. Industrial production grew 2.8% in May, led by a 4.4% rise in manufacturing. However, car sales declined 12.2% in May from a year ago as higher inflation and a weaker ruble hurt consumer spending. The economic outlook remains challenging amid geopolitical tensions.
The document summarizes the current economic landscape in Russia. Tensions with Western countries over Ukraine continue, as Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills. Russia's economy faces issues like a weakening currency, high inflation, and stalled growth. GDP growth slowed to just 0.9% in Q1 2014, well below forecasts. Industrial production grew in May but car sales declined sharply. Sanctions and tensions continue to weigh on the economic outlook for Russia.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in May amid rising concerns about household finances, spending on big ticket items, and long-term business conditions. Consumer confidence declined across all income groups, though higher income households were less affected. Consumers expressed growing worries about current economic conditions and the future path of inflation, interest rates, and employment prospects. Spending indicators such as durable buying conditions and car purchases also fell as consumers grew more cautious.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013, its lowest since 2009, and that Russia's annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, forcing a rise in interest rates and downward revisions to growth forecasts.
The document summarizes the economic landscape in Russia in April 2014. It notes that Russian GDP contracted in Q1 2014 and full-year growth forecasts have been revised down to just 0.5% due to sanctions and turmoil in Ukraine. Industrial production growth slowed in March while car sales were stable. Inflation remains high and the central bank does not plan to ease monetary policy. The economic outlook is uncertain as tensions in Ukraine continue.
The sharp fall in Russian markets was an overreaction to protests in Moscow following parliamentary elections. While events in other countries sparked regime changes, Russia's political consequences will likely unfold gradually. The protests were also not unprecedented and should not have justified the large sell-off. More important short-term issues for Russian investors include the EU debt crisis, China's economic growth, and oil prices. While not dismissing the protests, Russia's stable macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from those in countries experiencing Arab Spring uprisings. Changes in Russia are expected slowly rather than dramatically as public frustration has grown with a new middle class and expectations of reform.
The document is a monthly business report from MNI Indicators on business sentiment in Russia. Some key points:
- The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose in July to the highest level in three months, though it remains below levels at the start of 2014 due to economic weakness and geopolitical tensions from Russia's actions in Ukraine.
- Production conditions for large Russian companies slumped to a seven-month low in July, while new orders and export orders improved for the second straight month.
- Companies have been reducing inventories but the pace of decline has slowed, with the inventories indicator just below neutral levels. Input prices declined for the fourth month in a row.
- Access to credit
London, 20 December 2013. Russian business confidence ended the year at a record low with the MNI Russia Business Indicator falling to 45.5 in December. Production and New Orders fell sharply. While companies were slightly less pessimistic about the next three months compared with November, the overall weakness of the survey points to a further weakening in growth.
London, 22 November 2013 MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME. MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 51.5 In November from 56.3 in October. Future Expectations Hit A New Low. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined for the second consecutive month, while expectations for the future hit their lowest level since the series began in March.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the implications of Brexit for Britain and India, update on recent forecasts by World Bank, economic prospects of US economy and European Central Bank’s policy stance in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, Mr. Ajay Shriram, Past President, CII writes an article on the two years of Modi Government. Additionally, we also analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Trade and Balance of Payments. In Corporate Performance section we examine the corporate profitability trends for firms for the year FY16. From this issue, we have introduced a new section named as Policy Focus, in which we analyse the key policy documents released during the May-June 2016. In Focus of the Month, we cover the topic ‘India’s Trade & International Alliances’.
Highlights:
* Fastest GDP growth in 6 years
* Inflation slightly down
* Dynamic year for retail trade
In Focus.
Four years in the euro area – have the promises come true? author: Egils Kaužēns
RICS UK Economy and Property Market Chart Book - February 2016 (1)George Marcou
The document provides an economic commentary and analysis of the UK property market. It notes that global growth concerns continue to rattle financial markets and weigh on the outlook. While the UK economy expanded 2.2% in 2015, growth slowed in the second half of the year. The labor market added jobs recently but substantial slack remains. Commercial property demand is rising, particularly for industrial space, while housing transaction activity increased ahead of an upcoming tax change.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2017Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic developments in December 2017, including:
- External demand continued to grow, supported by robust global demand and growth among Latvia's main trade partners, though UK demand weakened due to Brexit uncertainties.
- The ECB maintained interest rates and asset purchase programs as inflation remained below target. Financial conditions remained accommodative globally.
- Latvia saw strong economic growth in 2017, driven by external demand, private consumption, and recovering investment inflows. Wage growth outpaced productivity, however, weakening competitiveness.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
Russian business sentiment recovered slightly in June from a five month low in May, though it remained considerably lower than at the start of 2014 due to sanctions and economic slowdown. The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose to 50.5 in June from 49.2 in May but was 12.6% below June 2013 levels. Both production and new orders rose marginally in June while export orders increased but remained below the breakeven level of 50. The chief economist commented that while tensions in Ukraine continued, calmer rhetoric and actions on sanctions eased business concerns.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
8 JANUARY 2014 . MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rises to 95.7 in December from 94.8 in November. Consumer Confidence Remains Low. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased slightly in December, having hit a series low in November. Confidence remained weak amid continued concerns over inflation, personal finances and a gloomy business outlook.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. April 2013Latvijas Banka
This document provides a macroeconomic developments report for April 2013. It summarizes economic conditions in Latvia and its major trade partners. While global growth is projected to be higher in 2013 than 2012, downside risks remain from a slower euro area recovery and issues in certain countries. Latvian exports reached peaks in late 2012, improving competitiveness, though investment activity declined. Domestic demand remains buoyed by private consumption while inflation is slowing.
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing growth supported by nearly all sectors
* Exports regain pace
* Inflation boosted by global food prices growth while oil prices decrease
"In Focus":
* Comparison of the Baltic States' exports, author Daina Pelēce
"Highlights":
* Healthy growth, but caution warranted
* Inflation growth decelerating
* Recovery of imports increased current account deficit
"In Focus":
* Does the financing from the EU structural funds improve the competitiveness of Latvian businesses?, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
The Lithuanian Economy - No 9, December 2, 2011Swedbank
Industrial production in Lithuania decreased by 1.3% in October compared to the previous year, indicating stagnation in the industry sector. However, retail trade growth remained resilient at 9.5% higher than the previous year. Unemployment has been decreasing while wages have grown only modestly. Deteriorating consumer confidence and expectations of weaker external demand signal that industrial production and domestic spending growth will slow in the coming months.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, June 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) December 2016Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dslidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Highlights:
- Current account reflects the recovering investment activity
- Annual inflation continues hovering around 3%
- GDP growth exceeds expectations and leads to revised forecasts
In Focus:
- Latvia 2017: Back to growth and structural reforms, by Mārtiņš Grāvītis
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2016, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
The document provides a quarterly market review and commentary on global economic and investment trends in Q1 2016. It summarizes that equities seesawed amid recession fears and dovish central bank policy shifts. Safe haven assets like US Treasuries and gold rallied. Central banks in Japan and Europe took further stimulus measures with negative interest rates, but their effectiveness is uncertain given still tepid growth and inflation. The outlook remains volatile given political and economic uncertainties.
This document provides a summary of the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers' Index for March 2016. It includes analysis of economic performance in global regions, Eurozone countries, the UK and its regions, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland. The PMI surveys track variables such as output, orders, employment and prices across sectors to provide an early indication of private sector economic trends. The document finds that global output growth improved in March, with most developed and emerging markets seeing PMI increases. Eurozone and UK manufacturing output increased while services slowed. Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland continued posting the fastest rates of service sector growth. Input costs and output price inflation eased across the regions.
Russian business sentiment fell sharply in May 2014 to its lowest level since December 2013, as the standoff with Western countries over Russia's intervention in Crimea negatively impacted businesses. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined from 55.6 in April to 49.2 in May, below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. New orders and production declined further, though export orders recovered slightly. While companies remained optimistic about their future financial position, that indicator has trended downward over the past three months.
Chinese consumer sentiment fell sharply in June according to the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped 7.1% to its lowest level in nearly a year. Expectations for future business conditions hit a record low as consumers reported concerns about their personal finances and the economic outlook. While sentiment remained above the breakeven level, the decline signals caution about becoming overly optimistic on China's economic growth despite signs of stabilization.
London, 22 November 2013 MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME. MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 51.5 In November from 56.3 in October. Future Expectations Hit A New Low. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined for the second consecutive month, while expectations for the future hit their lowest level since the series began in March.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the implications of Brexit for Britain and India, update on recent forecasts by World Bank, economic prospects of US economy and European Central Bank’s policy stance in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, Mr. Ajay Shriram, Past President, CII writes an article on the two years of Modi Government. Additionally, we also analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Trade and Balance of Payments. In Corporate Performance section we examine the corporate profitability trends for firms for the year FY16. From this issue, we have introduced a new section named as Policy Focus, in which we analyse the key policy documents released during the May-June 2016. In Focus of the Month, we cover the topic ‘India’s Trade & International Alliances’.
Highlights:
* Fastest GDP growth in 6 years
* Inflation slightly down
* Dynamic year for retail trade
In Focus.
Four years in the euro area – have the promises come true? author: Egils Kaužēns
RICS UK Economy and Property Market Chart Book - February 2016 (1)George Marcou
The document provides an economic commentary and analysis of the UK property market. It notes that global growth concerns continue to rattle financial markets and weigh on the outlook. While the UK economy expanded 2.2% in 2015, growth slowed in the second half of the year. The labor market added jobs recently but substantial slack remains. Commercial property demand is rising, particularly for industrial space, while housing transaction activity increased ahead of an upcoming tax change.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2017Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic developments in December 2017, including:
- External demand continued to grow, supported by robust global demand and growth among Latvia's main trade partners, though UK demand weakened due to Brexit uncertainties.
- The ECB maintained interest rates and asset purchase programs as inflation remained below target. Financial conditions remained accommodative globally.
- Latvia saw strong economic growth in 2017, driven by external demand, private consumption, and recovering investment inflows. Wage growth outpaced productivity, however, weakening competitiveness.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
Russian business sentiment recovered slightly in June from a five month low in May, though it remained considerably lower than at the start of 2014 due to sanctions and economic slowdown. The MNI Russia Business Indicator rose to 50.5 in June from 49.2 in May but was 12.6% below June 2013 levels. Both production and new orders rose marginally in June while export orders increased but remained below the breakeven level of 50. The chief economist commented that while tensions in Ukraine continued, calmer rhetoric and actions on sanctions eased business concerns.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
8 JANUARY 2014 . MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rises to 95.7 in December from 94.8 in November. Consumer Confidence Remains Low. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased slightly in December, having hit a series low in November. Confidence remained weak amid continued concerns over inflation, personal finances and a gloomy business outlook.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. April 2013Latvijas Banka
This document provides a macroeconomic developments report for April 2013. It summarizes economic conditions in Latvia and its major trade partners. While global growth is projected to be higher in 2013 than 2012, downside risks remain from a slower euro area recovery and issues in certain countries. Latvian exports reached peaks in late 2012, improving competitiveness, though investment activity declined. Domestic demand remains buoyed by private consumption while inflation is slowing.
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing growth supported by nearly all sectors
* Exports regain pace
* Inflation boosted by global food prices growth while oil prices decrease
"In Focus":
* Comparison of the Baltic States' exports, author Daina Pelēce
"Highlights":
* Healthy growth, but caution warranted
* Inflation growth decelerating
* Recovery of imports increased current account deficit
"In Focus":
* Does the financing from the EU structural funds improve the competitiveness of Latvian businesses?, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
The Lithuanian Economy - No 9, December 2, 2011Swedbank
Industrial production in Lithuania decreased by 1.3% in October compared to the previous year, indicating stagnation in the industry sector. However, retail trade growth remained resilient at 9.5% higher than the previous year. Unemployment has been decreasing while wages have grown only modestly. Deteriorating consumer confidence and expectations of weaker external demand signal that industrial production and domestic spending growth will slow in the coming months.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, June 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) December 2016Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dslidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Highlights:
- Current account reflects the recovering investment activity
- Annual inflation continues hovering around 3%
- GDP growth exceeds expectations and leads to revised forecasts
In Focus:
- Latvia 2017: Back to growth and structural reforms, by Mārtiņš Grāvītis
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2016, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
The document provides a quarterly market review and commentary on global economic and investment trends in Q1 2016. It summarizes that equities seesawed amid recession fears and dovish central bank policy shifts. Safe haven assets like US Treasuries and gold rallied. Central banks in Japan and Europe took further stimulus measures with negative interest rates, but their effectiveness is uncertain given still tepid growth and inflation. The outlook remains volatile given political and economic uncertainties.
This document provides a summary of the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers' Index for March 2016. It includes analysis of economic performance in global regions, Eurozone countries, the UK and its regions, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland. The PMI surveys track variables such as output, orders, employment and prices across sectors to provide an early indication of private sector economic trends. The document finds that global output growth improved in March, with most developed and emerging markets seeing PMI increases. Eurozone and UK manufacturing output increased while services slowed. Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland continued posting the fastest rates of service sector growth. Input costs and output price inflation eased across the regions.
Russian business sentiment fell sharply in May 2014 to its lowest level since December 2013, as the standoff with Western countries over Russia's intervention in Crimea negatively impacted businesses. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined from 55.6 in April to 49.2 in May, below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. New orders and production declined further, though export orders recovered slightly. While companies remained optimistic about their future financial position, that indicator has trended downward over the past three months.
Chinese consumer sentiment fell sharply in June according to the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped 7.1% to its lowest level in nearly a year. Expectations for future business conditions hit a record low as consumers reported concerns about their personal finances and the economic outlook. While sentiment remained above the breakeven level, the decline signals caution about becoming overly optimistic on China's economic growth despite signs of stabilization.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Falls to 94.1 in February from 99.3 in January.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator declined to the lowest level since the survey started in March 2013, led by a sharp fall in consumers’ views about the current state of their personal finances, with not even the winter games able to boost sentiment.
The document summarizes recent economic developments in India. Business confidence rose to its highest level since November 2012 due to optimism around the new Prime Minister's plans. Industrial production grew 3.4% in April, the highest in 13 months, led by manufacturing. However, growth remains subdued at 4.6% and below normal monsoon could push up food prices, challenging interest rate cuts. The new government aims to boost investment, manufacturing and foreign inflows to revive the economy.
9.evidencias, notas de clases y link genero y educacionnarvaez11
La Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco ofrece una asignatura sobre educación intercultural en México. El tema 9 cubre el género y la educación. La alumna Jaqueline Jimenez Narvaez presenta evidencias y notas de clase para el grupo 9A como parte de los requisitos de la asignatura impartida por el Dr. Ariel Gutiérrez Valencia dentro de la Licenciatura en Ciencias de la Educación.
London, 4 March 2013 MNI INDIA CONSUMER SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. NEW DELHI TIME The MNI India Consumer Indicator increased to the highest level since December 2012, driven by a rise in both current and future expectations.
The Chicago Business Barometer, a leading indicator of economic activity in the US, declined 3.9 points to 59.1 in December, representing the second consecutive monthly decline but still pointing to reasonably firm growth. While business activity softened in December, companies continued to report expansion in production and new orders albeit at a slower rate. Employment also fell significantly just above 50, indicating a contraction. Supplier deliveries were the only component that increased at a faster rate, seen as a potential signal for continued growth. The chief economist commented that while activity dipped in December, businesses still reported solid expansion in key areas.
Facebook allows for easy photo and video sharing from a phone or computer. Photobucket is the author's favorite online photo album, as it stores pictures without social media distractions and automatically uploads photos from their phone gallery. Bit Strips is a site the author's partner enjoys using to communicate feelings to friends through customizable animated comic strips and characters.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and up-to-date intelligence on the state of the Indian economy. It provides a monthly snapshot of market activities as perceived by local consumers.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment serves as the basis for its own dedicated report, the MNI India Consumer Report. This monthly report delivers in-depth analysis of consumers‘ attitudes, perspectives and confidence across the country.
Written by our in-house team of economists, the MNI India Consumer Report blends the analysis of consumer confidence with relevant commentaries. It allows users to develop a thorough understanding of the Indian market and get direct access to consumers‘ views on the economy and its future.
Consumer sentiment in China increased slightly in July according to the Westpac MNI China CSI. The index rose 1.9% due to a sharp recovery in long-term business expectations, though confidence remained subdued. Four of the five components rose between June and July, with the largest increase seen in expectations for business conditions over the next five years. Bank deposits remained the preferred savings vehicle among consumers, followed by wealth management products and real estate.
Shopping Today: Delivery in 2020 - PostNL - Carlos Mendes AguiarKam Jzi Wong
Welke trends beinvloeden Delivery in 2020? Carlos Mendes Aguiar, directeur PostNL Retail en E-commerce Services belicht trends, cases en gevolgen voor Delivery.
Shopping 2020: ‘Hoe shopt de consument in 2020 en welke acties moeten worden
ondernomen op nationaal, branche en bedrijfsniveau opdat B2C ondernemend
Nederland succesvol hier op in kan spelen, nationaal én internationaal?’
It is my study about Russian Business Culture.common working practices in Russia,Making Appointment,Business Dress Code
Conversation, Structure and hierarchy in Russian business culture
Working relation Ship in Russia, Business Practices in Russia, gender Aspects, Meals and Business Etiquettes
Finally we’ll discuss what are Do’s and Don’ts in Russian business.
India has great potential to be the food basket of the world due to its diverse agricultural resources and large workforce in agriculture. However, currently 20% of food produced in India is wasted due to an inefficient supply chain and lack of cold storage infrastructure and food processing industry. Building an efficient supply chain using modern techniques could help India serve its population with value-added food while ensuring good prices for farmers. The food processing industry has an important role to play in linking farmers to consumers in India and abroad. Developing a fully integrated cold chain logistics system including cold storage, transportation, packaging and information management could help reduce waste and make India a leading global food supplier.
Compensation is the process of providing adequate, equitable and fair remuneration to the employees. It is what employees receive in exchange for their contribution to the organization. It is a comprehensive term which includes pay, incentives and benefits offered to the employees.
PURPOSEOF COMPENSATION
THE PAY MODEL
STRATEGIC COMPENSATION PLANNING
COMPENSATION POLICY ISSUES
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, driven by concerns over the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined significantly in March compared to previous months. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013 and its annexation of Crimea has thrown the economy into turmoil, with the possibility of recession.
The document summarizes the March 2014 MNI Russia Business Report. It finds that Russian business sentiment declined sharply in March to its lowest level in three months, amid concerns about the economic impact of Russia's intervention in Crimea. Key points from the report are that production, new orders, export orders, and the financial position of companies all declined in March. The economic landscape section notes that Russia's GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013 and its annexation of Crimea has thrown the country into economic turmoil, with the stock market plunging and sanctions from Western nations.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose for the first time in five months in June, up 2.2% from May, though it remained below year-ago levels. Consumer sentiment increased across most regions except the Urals, where it declined to a record low. Confidence rose in lower income groups but fell slightly among high earners. Respondents were more optimistic about business conditions and purchasing durable goods in the near term, but inflation expectations also reached a new high.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in April as concerns over household finances, business conditions, and the spending climate increased due to the situation in Ukraine. The indicator declined for the third straight month and was almost 11% below early-2014 levels. Current personal finances improved slightly but future expectations fell, while both current and expected business conditions weakened. Inflation expectations rose to a record high.
The MNI Russia Business Sentiment provides insight into the Russian economy. Based on a monthly poll of business executives, it tracks and predicts Russian economic conditions.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.0 points in July to 91.1 after hitting a record low in May, but remains below year-ago levels. Consumers felt better about current finances but were downbeat on the future economy. High inflation remains a key concern despite a slight easing in expectations. Tighter monetary policy and new sanctions will likely weaken growth and sentiment going forward.
The Russian economy saw weak growth of 1.4% in 2013 and is expected to grow by only 2.5% in 2014, with inflation remaining high at 6.5% in December. Industrial production contracted by 0.2% over the full year 2013 but rose slightly in December, while retail sales and investment growth slowed. The Russian currency has come under pressure recently amid turmoil in emerging markets. The central bank is allowing the rouble to depreciate to boost growth.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell 5.4% in March to its lowest level since the survey began in 2013, as concerns over household finances, short-term business conditions, and spending declined sharply due to worries over Russia's actions in Ukraine. Current personal finances reached a series low while expectations for business conditions in one year also fell sharply. Overall consumer confidence in Russia has dropped more than 10% since the start of 2014.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, as current conditions improved sharply. Consumer sentiment rose in eight of the ten major cities surveyed, while concerns over inflation continued to worsen despite a slowdown in official inflation data. The Employment Outlook Indicator deteriorated considerably in January.
Russian business sentiment fell sharply in May 2014 to its lowest level since December 2013, as the country's military intervention in Crimea and the resulting sanctions from Western countries took a toll on businesses. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined to 49.2 in May, below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. New orders, production, and export orders all contracted further. While companies remained optimistic about their future financial positions, their overall financial health indicator reached a series low. The chief economist of MNI Indicators stated that the survey showed the impact of tensions in Ukraine was clearly affecting Russian companies.
Russian business sentiment improved in July according to a survey by MNI Indicators, with the MNI Russia Business Indicator rising to 54.6 from 50.5 in June. While the initial impact of sanctions has faded, sentiment remains below levels at the start of 2014. New orders and export orders increased in July but production slumped to a seven-month low amid a weak economic backdrop. The outlook remains gloomy as high inflation and interest rates suggest the economy will barely grow in 2014, and further meaningful sanctions could push growth into negative territory.
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and in-depth analysis of consumer behaviours within the rapidly changing Russian economy. We provide timely intelligence on the state of an important strategic market.
Russia's consumer sentiment hit a new low in May according to MNI's Russia Consumer Indicator, which fell to 87.2 from 88.5 in April, its lowest level since the series began in 2013. Consumers grew increasingly pessimistic about their personal finances, ability to purchase big ticket items, and long-term business conditions amid high inflation, increased loan costs, and expectations that Russia will fall into recession due to its tense situation with Ukraine. Most components of the indicator declined to new lows in May as consumers faced rising prices and interest rates and anticipated a weakening labor market and contracting economy.
London, 20 December 2013. MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME The MNI Russia Business Indicator falls to a record low of 45.5 in December. Production and New Orders fell sharply.
London, 22 November 2013 MNI RUSSIA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. MOSCOW TIME. Future Expectations Hit A New Low. The MNI Russia Business Indicator declined for the second consecutive month, while expectations for the future hit their lowest level since the series began in March.
Drawing on data sources such as the Grant Thornton IBR, the EIU and the IMF, this report considers the outlook for the economy, including the growth expectations of 400 businesses interviewed in Russia, and more than 12,500 globally.
Russian consumer sentiment recovered slightly in June after hitting a record low in May, though sentiment remained lower than the previous year due to weak economic growth and Russia's actions in Crimea. The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 2.2% in June, but was still 9.6% below the previous year's level. While purchasing intentions for household goods increased slightly, expectations for personal finances declined to a new low. Inflation expectations also rose to a new high, exacerbating consumers' concerns about high prices and interest rates on loans. The small recovery in sentiment in June was welcomed, but the economist noted that the economic backdrop remained gloomy.
Data Digest #9: Vietnam Stock Market: Embracing New Normal amidst COVID!FiinGroup JSC
COVID-related impacts on the Value could be somehow predictable. In this Report, we conduct an in-depth analysis on factors determining SUPPLY in correlation with DEMAND, instead of purely analyzing corporate fundamentals like before. Under the current circumstance, factors determining DEMAND or affecting money flow and investor sentiment, in our view, are the most important and need taking into serious consideration.
We are trying to make a plenty of data-driven comparisons on impacts of different COVID waves (the first in Q1-2020 and the fourth now) to support you in having assessments on your own. Accordingly, this Report aims to give in-depth analysis and data-driven findings on which sectors or companies could be beneficiaries from the pandemic, especially once the “Embracing the Covid-19” strategy is confirmed.
Download our full report: https://bit.ly/FiinPro-Digest-9-EN
China Q12014 Macro Update - tracking key economic statisticsElias Glenn
China in Numbers – Macro Update, 1Q14 Review
March Data vs. Consensus Estimates
Tertiary Industry Accounts for Nearly Half of GDP – Most in Over 20 Years
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Balmer Lawrie reported a 33% rise in Q1 net profit. It also appointed Manoj Lakhanpal as its new CFO. Several media articles covered Balmer Lawrie's positive Q1 results and new CFO appointment. BJP President Amit Shah said that India will achieve 10% growth by 2017 and urged the Congress to support the GST bill. India's exports declined for the 8th straight month, falling 10.3% in July due to lower petroleum product exports and global oil prices. Industrial output in June grew 3.8%, the highest in 4 months, led by manufacturing growth. Wholesale inflation in July touched a new low of -4.05% on lower vegetable, fuel,
Similar to MNI Russia Business Report May 2014 (20)
The Chicago Business Barometer fell slightly to 54.4 in August from 54.7 in July. While production and new orders softened, they remained above their 12-month averages and up from earlier in the year. Companies continued building inventories at the fastest pace since November 2014 in anticipation of stronger demand in the fourth quarter. Employment rose in August but remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month, and companies do not plan to expand their workforces in the near term.
The Chicago Business Barometer made a positive start to the third quarter, jumping above 50 after two
months in contraction, leaving economic activity expanding at the fastest pace since January.
- The Chicago Business Barometer remained below 50 in March, pointing to a slowdown in the US economy. The Barometer increased slightly to 46.3 but was still in contraction territory.
- Production increased in March but remained below 50, while new orders and order backlogs rose slightly but remained contracted. Employment also rose slightly.
- While some of the weakness may be due to weather and port strikes, the continued weakness in March suggests a wider slowdown. Purchasers expect orders to pick up in the next quarter but demand remained soft in the first quarter.
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 5.4 points to 60.8 in November from a one year high of 66.2 in October driven by a double digit drop in New Orders.
- The Chicago Business Barometer rose 5.7 points to 66.2 in October, the highest level in one year, fueled by a sharp gain in new orders, which increased to the highest since October 2013.
- Production and employment also strengthened, and order backlogs expanded faster, suggesting continued strong demand and solid economic growth.
- While inflationary pressures eased due to lower oil prices, the domestic economy is growing firmly according to the survey results.
Embargoed until 9:45 a.m. ET, 30 September 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.8 points to a still robust 60.5 in September, as Production and New Orders slowed while fims reported a record rise in stocks and a sharp increase in input prices.
Embargoed until 9:45 AM ET, 29 August 2014 The Chicago Business Barometer surged 11.7 points to 64.3 in August, regaining all the lost ground seen in July, and pointing to continued strength in the US economy.
Russian consumer sentiment increased slightly in July according to a consumer sentiment index. The index rose 2 points to 91.1 in July from 89.1 in June, though sentiment remains below levels from earlier in the year prior to Russia's annexation of Crimea. Consumers felt better about their current economic circumstances but were still downbeat about the future outlook. Pessimism is expected to continue as sanctions over Ukraine's crisis further impact Russia's already weakening economy.
The document is a monthly report by MNI Indicators on consumer sentiment in India for July 2014. Some key points:
- The MNI India Consumer Indicator fell slightly from June as consumers were less optimistic about current conditions and future expectations.
- Five of the six components that make up the indicator declined, with personal finances seeing the largest drop.
- Respondents were less confident about their current and future personal finances despite tax measures in the recent budget.
- Sentiment on real estate fell for the fifth straight month while the car purchase indicator rose after an extension of tax cuts.
The document summarizes India's economic landscape in July 2014. It discusses key points from the government's first budget, recent economic data, and the state of economic growth. The budget aimed to boost growth to 7-8% by promoting manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and reducing the fiscal deficit. However, it lacked details on subsidy reform and GST implementation. Recent data showed easing inflation but industrial growth remains subdued, with GDP at 4.6% in the last quarter. The government forecasts 5.4-5.9% growth this fiscal year but weaker external factors may limit growth to the lower end.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose 3.3% in June to 126.2, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and household incomes under the new government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Consumers were more optimistic about their personal finances, current and future business conditions, employment outlook, and inflation expectations. The interest rates expectations indicator and car purchase indicator also rose. However, confidence in the real estate market fell for the fourth straight month.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose to 126.2 in June, its highest level since February, as consumers were more confident about future economic growth and incomes under the new Modi-led government. All components of the indicator increased except durable buying conditions. Business conditions expectations for both the short-term and long-term hit record highs, with the government and its policies cited as reasons for optimism. Consumer inflation expectations fell to their lowest since December 2012. The chief economist commented that the rising sentiment is due to the recovery in the Indian economy and optimism around Prime Minister Modi's ability to revive growth.
The Chicago Business Barometer eased slightly in June but remained at a high level, pointing to a rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter following a sharp fall in the first quarter. While new orders fell from a seven-month high, production rose firmly above 70, close to its level in April. The strength in production and new orders underpinned the Barometer during the second quarter. Some respondents indicated they built inventories ahead of a possible strike by longshoremen at ports. The chief economist commented that while growth in the first half of the year will be slower than initially expected, upcoming data in the third quarter will be important in determining the timing of the first interest rate hike.
The MNI India Business Indicator rose to 69.2 in June from 67.0 in May, reflecting higher optimism among manufacturing companies who expect the new Prime Minister to boost growth. New orders and order backlogs increased to their highest levels in months, while companies planned to expand employment and saw lower inflation. The survey showed signs of a recovery in demand and business confidence in India.
The consumer sentiment indicator in India fell to 122.1 in May, its lowest level since January, as consumers were less optimistic about the future. Four of the five components of the indicator declined, with only durable buying conditions rising. The chief economist noted that confidence had fallen after gains in recent months and that they would have to see the June results to understand the impact of Modi's election as prime minister. However, stock investment indicators rose to a high as investors hoped Modi's reforms would boost economic growth.
The consumer sentiment indicator in India fell to its lowest level since January as consumers were less optimistic about the future. The report was conducted before the election results that showed a clear mandate for Narendra Modi, though polls had pointed to his win. While perceptions about current business conditions deteriorated, consumers were hopeful the new Modi-led government would implement business friendly policies and improve employment conditions and prices. The stock investment indicator reached a series high as stock prices continued rising.
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What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
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Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
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3. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 3
MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014
Contents
4 Editorial
6 Executive Summary
10 Economic Landscape
14 Indicators
15 MNI Russia Business Indicator
16 Production
17 New Orders
18 Export Orders
19 Productive Capacity
20 Order Backlogs
21 Employment
22 Inventories
23 Input Prices
24 Prices Received
25 Financial Position
26 Interest Rates Paid
27 Effect of Rouble Exchange Rate
28 Supplier Delivery Times
29 Availability of Credit
30 Data Tables
34 Methodology
4. Spitzzeile Titel4
Russia has long been looking to the East and this
month came up trumps, as President Vladimir Putin
signed a historic 30-year deal worth $400 billion
for the state-run gas producer Gazprom to supply
natural gas to China.
A New Friend
5. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 5
Last month, our editorial was titled “Going Alone” as
Russia faced increasing political and economic
isolation from the US and EU. Russia has long been
looking to the East and this month came up trumps,
as President Vladimir Putin signed a historic 30-year
deal worth $400 billion for the state-run gas producer
Gazprom to supply natural gas to China. One little
caveat is that it would appear that while the signing
ceremony took place there are quite a lot of details to
be ironed out on the pricing front.
Still if it all goes ahead according to plan then it’s a
win for both sides as China secures the natural gas its
economy needs, a helping hand to move away from
more polluting coal, while Russia gets to diversify.
Not, of course, from its age old dependence on the
energy sector (it really does need to do this though)
but away from its traditional European partners.
Not wanting to be pushed around by the US or
European neighbours it’s likely that Putin gave a fair
bit of ground to China on the deal in order to push it
through quickly. Sharing a platform with China’s
President Xi Jinping is certainly one way to show the
world you’re not isolated. But even if China has got a
good deal, diversifying its supply network is a boon for
Russia. It will also help not just China but possibly the
rest of Asia, as Russia will be able to ship gas from the
end of the pipeline in south-east Russia to other Asian
countries. According to the International Energy
Agency, Asia is the fastest growing region for natural
gas consumption in the world and by 2015 it will
become the second-largest market.
China will make as much as $25 billion in advance
payments to invest in the necessary infrastructure in
Russia. Gazprom will invest $55 billion developing
giant gas fields in eastern Siberia and building the new
pipeline. While this may be hailed as the much needed
investment Russia needs, it also needs to ensure
that the proceeds of this deal are fed into investment
in other areas of the economy as well. The danger is
that a deal like this reinforces Russia’s focus on the
energy sector and may hold back the often talked
about development of the high-tech manufacturing
sector.
While Russia’s eastern foray is strategically
important, most of its trade is still with the EU. Our
own business survey this month showed that the
Ukraine crisis has inflicted clear damage on the
confidence of Russian companies. For now,
economic recovery in Russia depends more on it’s
old friends in the west than new ones in the east.
Shaily Mittal
Philip Uglow
MNI Indicators
6. Spitzzeile Titel6
Russian business sentiment contracted sharply in
May to the lowest level since December 2013, as
businesses felt the heat of the standoff from the
West over Russia’s military intervention in Crimea.
Executive Summary
7. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 7
Russian business sentiment contracted sharply in
May to the lowest level since December 2013, as
businesses felt the heat of the standoff from the West
over Russia’s military intervention in Crimea.
The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell to 49.2 in
May from 55.6 in April, to stand 11.5% below the
level seen in May 2013. The decline in the indicator
below the 50 expansion/contraction level suggests a
considerable dent has been made in Russian business
confidence from what have only been limited
sanctions imposed by the US and the EU.
Fewer companies expected their overall business
conditions to improve in the following three months.
The Expectations Indicator fell to 52.5 in May from
54.3 in April, the lowest in five months.
Current conditions for Production declined to the
lowest in two months following a small rise in the
previous month. The Production Indicator fell to 55.3
in May from 57.3 in April and was significantly below
the 61.0 outturn seen in the same period a year ago.
The New Orders Indicator fell to the lowest since
December and was well below the level witnessed in
the same period a year earlier, highlighting the
slowdown in the economy over the past year.
Given the current weak demand backdrop, Order
Backlogs have remained in contraction for three
months. The Order Backlogs Indicator rose to 42.3
from the record low level of 39.5 in April and was
below the outturn seen in the same month a year ago.
Russian companies felt the pinch of the stand-off
with the West amid the threat of further sanctions
following Crimea’s annexation. The indicator
measuring the Financial Position of companies
declined for the third consecutive month in May to the
lowest since August 2013.
The Prices Received Indicator, which measures the
prices that companies charge for their goods and
services, declined to 50 in May from 50.5 in April.
The effect of the rate hike in late April has not yet
been passed onto businesses, as the majority of
companies reported no change in their interest costs.
The indicator for Interest Rates Paid remained flat at
49.7 in April, the second month below the 50
expansion/contraction mark.
More companies reported that they had better access
to credit in May, as the Availability of Credit Indicator
increased significantly by 11.1% to 59.9 from 53.9 in
the previous month, the highest on record.
The Effect of Rouble Exchange Rate Indicator, which
measures whether the exchange rate is helping or
hurting businesses, increased for the first time in
three months to 53.3 in May compared with 50.9 in
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
MNI Russia Business Indicator
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
8. MNI Russia Business Report - May 20148
Overview
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Business
Indicator
Current Conditions 52.5 55.6 49.2 - Dec-13 52.4 -6.4 -11.5%
Future Expectations 53.3 54.3 52.5 - Dec-13 53.4 -1.8 -3.3%
Production
Current Conditions 52.5 57.3 55.3 - Mar-14 55.0 -2.0 -3.5%
Future Expectations 50.8 52.0 51.7 - Mar-14 51.5 -0.3 -0.6%
New Orders
Current Conditions 57.5 58.8 54.8 - Dec-13 57.0 -4.0 -6.8%
Future Expectations 51.8 52.2 52.7 Sep-13 - 52.2 0.5 1.0%
Export Orders
Current Conditions 48.3 44.4 46.9 Mar-14 - 46.5 2.5 5.6%
Future Expectations 43.0 43.5 43.0 - Dec-13 43.2 -0.5 -1.1%
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions 50.3 50.0 51.5 Oct-13 - 50.6 1.5 3.0%
Future Expectations 49.7 49.7 50.3 Aug-13 - 49.9 0.6 1.2%
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions 47.4 39.5 42.3 Mar-14 - 43.1 2.8 7.1%
Future Expectations 43.0 42.5 43.3 Feb-14 - 42.9 0.8 1.9%
Employment
Current Conditions 50.0 50.8 52.8 Jun-13 - 51.2 2.0 3.9%
Future Expectations 50.5 50.0 50.5 Mar-14 - 50.3 0.5 1.0%
Inventories
Current Conditions 40.4 32.2 39.2 Mar-14 - 37.3 7.0 21.7%
Future Expectations 40.2 41.2 43.4 Feb-14 - 41.6 2.2 5.3%
Input Prices
Current Conditions 52.1 51.8 51.0 - Aug-13 51.6 -0.8 -1.5%
Future Expectations 52.1 50.3 50.0 - series low 50.8 -0.3 -0.6%
Prices Received
Current Conditions 53.1 50.5 50.0 - Mar-13 51.2 -0.5 -1.0%
Future Expectations 51.3 51.3 51.0 - Feb-14 51.2 -0.3 -0.6%
Financial Position
Current Conditions 60.1 59.8 56.3 - Aug-13 58.7 -3.5 -5.9%
Future Expectations 55.6 54.4 53.6 - series low 54.5 -0.8 -1.5%
Interest Rates Paid
Current Conditions 50.0 49.7 49.7 Apr-14 - 49.8 0.0 0.0%
Future Expectations 49.4 49.4 49.7 Feb-14 - 49.5 0.3 0.6%
Effect of Rouble Exchange
Rate
Current Conditions 53.7 50.9 53.3 Mar-14 - 52.6 2.4 4.7%
Future Expectations 50.0 50.0 50.0 Apr-14 - 50.0 0.0 0.0%
Supplier Delivery Times
Current Conditions 50.0 49.5 51.8 series high - 50.4 2.3 4.6%
Future Expectations 49.7 49.7 49.7 Apr-14 - 49.7 0.0 0.0%
Availability of Credit
Current Conditions 53.0 53.9 59.9 series high - 55.6 6.0 11.1%
Future Expectations 50.0 51.5 50.6 - Mar-14 50.7 -0.9 -1.7%
9. Russian business
sentiment contracted
sharply in May to
the lowest level
since December.
Decline in the indicator below the 50 level suggests
a considerable dent has been made in business
confidence from what have only been limited
sanctions imposed by the US and the EU.
10. Spitzzeile Titel10
The IMF recently reported that Russia was in
recession and warned that growth will further
contract if the West imposed any further sanctions.
Economic Landscape
11. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 11
The geo-political turmoil in Ukraine has thrown
Russian into economic crisis and growth for the full
year has been revised down to just 0.5%. The IMF
recently reported that Russia was in recession and
warned that growth will further contract if the West
imposed any further sanctions. Moreover the rise in
the key policy rate by the central bank, to address
inflationary issues and stem the slide in the rouble
and capital flow leakage, comes at the cost of much
needed growth.
On a more positive note, industrial production
expanded and manufacturing output posted the
highest growth in five months. The rouble has gained
slightly from the previous month, but is still 12%
below the level compared with the previous year.
Russia and China signed a gas deal worth $400
billion which will help to boost infrastructure
investment in Russia and comes at a time when
western economies threaten more sanctions against
it.
Low economic growth
Economic growth remained extremely weak at the
beginning of 2014, slowing to 0.9% in Q1 compared
with a year earlier, down from growth of 2% in Q4
2013 and 1.3% in Q1 2013. According to the
Economy Ministry, capital investment contracted by
4.8% in Q1 compared with a year earlier. Consumption
remained relatively firm, but it reflected a one-off
public sector pay increase and so is unlikely to be
sustained.
Russian ministers had predicted GDP growth of 2.5%
this year before the Ukrainian turmoil. However, this
has been dramatically reduced to just 0.5%, following
a paltry 1.3% growth in 2013. In April, Central Bank
governor Elvira Nabiullina also revised the growth rate
for 2014 to below 1% from 1.5-1.8% previously.
The International Monetary Fund thinks that Russia is
already in recession as U.S. and EU leaders warn that
they are ready to take further measures if the situation
in Ukraine is not de-escalated.
Industrial production expands in April
Industrial production accelerated by 2.4% on the
year in April, up from 1.4% in March due to a rise in
the output of mining and quarrying which expanded
by 1.1% compared with growth of just 0.6% in the
previous month. Manufacturing output growth added
to the expansion, increasing by 3.9% in April, the
highest in five months, and up from growth of 3.5%
in March. Utilities output continued to contract for
the sixth consecutive month, declining by 1.9%
compared with a fall of 6.6% in March.
In the first four months of 2014, industrial production
grew 1.4% on the year after contracting 0.6% in the
same period a year ago. The economy ministry
expects industrial output to increase by 1.3% this
year after it showed no growth in 2013.
Economic Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP Growth y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
12. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201412
Car sales fall in April
In April, 226,526 cars were sold, 7.7% below the
levels in the same month a year earlier, according to
the Association of European Businesses (AEB). Higher
inflation and a weaker rouble are having a negative
impact on consumer spending. The pace of the
decline in car sales had eased until March when sales
declined by just 0.4%, but the market is showing
signs of distress again. The four months to April saw
a decline of almost 4% in car sales compared with the
same period a year earlier.
A major blow to the Russian Automotive Industry
came when Ford Sollers, a joint venture between Ford
and Russian carmaker Sollers, announced it would
cut production and 950 jobs at two of its three
factories in Russia due to the country‘s deteriorating
economy and weaker rouble.
The AEB remains cautious about the outlook and has
forecast that car sales will decline by 1.6% in 2014
following a drop of 5.5% in the previous year.
Higher inflation in April
Consumer price inflation rose to 7.3% in April from
6.9% in March as food prices rose by 9% on the year,
compared with 8.4% in the previous month. A ban on
pork imports from the European Union has affected
the cost of meat products. Even after stripping out the
cost of food and fuel, core inflation accelerated to
6.5% from 6% in the previous month.
Russia imports a large amount of consumer goods
and food items, and the depreciation of the currency
has pushed up prices, forcing the central bank to
tighten its monetary policy.
The central bank governor now expects inflation to
stand between 5% and 6% in 2014, above the target
of 5%.
Inflation
CPI y/y%
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
Hike in key policy rate
On April 25, the Russian central bank raised its
benchmark interest rate to 7.5% from 7%, given
the rise in inflation. The increase followed a hike
on March 3 from 5.5% to 7% that the bank had
described as temporary.
Car Sales
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Car and Light Commercial Vehicles Sales y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
13. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 13
The surprise rate hike came despite stalling economic
growth. While the central bank’s stated concern was
inflation, the move was also a pre-emptive strike to
ward off further capital outflows and help support the
currency.
The Central Bank increased its inflation forecast to
6%, above the 5% target. However, it expects that the
additional policy tightening will help inflation to return
to a downward path from the second half of the year
and put it back on target in subsequent years.
Depreciation in the rouble
So far this year, the rouble has been one of the worst
performing emerging market currencies due to
alarming levels of capital flowing of the country
following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and fears of
further escalation in the situation. In May, the rouble
was 12.1% below the level seen in the same period a
year ago. However, as international tensions have
eased a bit, the rouble has strengthened over the past
two months and has gained 1.6% compared with
April.
the rouble was within 95 kopecks ($0.028) of the
upper edge of the top range of the corridor, or $200
million when it was trading in a range of one rouble
below that. These amounts will now be reduced to
$300 million and $100 million, respectively.
The bank aims to adopt inflation targeting from the
start of next year. It was forced to pause the shift
towards inflation targeting in early March in order to
halt the rouble’s decline after Russia annexed Crimea.
Trade surplus widens in March
Russia‘s trade surplus widened to $20 billion in
March, from $12.4 billion a month earlier and from
$15.7 billion in the same month a year ago, as
exports rose by the most since February 2012 due to
the sharp depreciation of the rouble.
After declining for the first time in four months,
exports recovered to $46.9 billion in March, 5.5%
below the same period a year ago. Imports declined
for the third consecutive month to $26.9 billion,
down by 6.6% on the year, although smaller than the
9.4% decline recorded in February.Russia had a healthy $482.7 billion in international
currency reserves in April, but that was down from
$493 billion in March and $522 billion in October
2013 as the country has tried to protect the rouble
from capital flight.
Capital outflows from Russia’s private sector stood at
$63.7 billion in Q1 2014 owing to the financial
instability. This compared with an outflow of $59.7
billion during the whole of 2013. Recently, the
Russian Economic Development Ministry increased
its estimate of capital flight to $150 billion, up from
an already revised estimate to $100 billion, post
Ukraine crisis, $25 billion being the original estimate.
The Central Bank has cut the size of the interventions
it carries out to support the rouble, a return to the
policy of allowing the rouble to float more freely.
Previously the bank spent $400 million a day when
14. Spitzzeile Titel14
The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell below the
50 expansion/contraction level suggesting a
considerable dent has been made in Russian
business confidence from what have only been
limited sanctions imposed by the US and the EU.
Indicators
15. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 15
Russian business sentiment contracted sharply in
May to the lowest level since December 2013, as
businesses felt the heat of the standoff from the West
over Russia’s military intervention in Crimea.
The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell to 49.2 in May
from 55.6 in April, to stand 11.5% below the level
seen in May 2013. The decline in the indicator below
the 50 expansion/contraction level suggests a
considerable dent has been made in Russian business
confidence from what have only been limited sanctions
imposed by the US and the EU.
Six out of the 15 current conditions indicators included
in the survey declined between April and May.
Business confidence was weak across the board and
it fell sharply among service and manufacturing
companies, with the Business Indicator sinking into
contraction. Construction companies were also less
optimistic about current business conditions, although
the majority reported that they remained broadly
stable compared with the previous month.
Fewer companies expected their overall business
conditions to improve in the following three months.
The Expectations Indicator fell to 52.5 in May from
54.3 in April, the lowest in five months. Expectations
among manufacturing companies contracted and fell
to the lowest in 10 months. The Expectations Indicator
for construction companies fell while it remained
broadly stable for service sector firms.
49.2
MNI Russia Business Indicator
Contracts Amid Uncertainty
MNI Russia Business Indicator
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 62.5 45.5 57.9 60.0 52.5 55.6 49.2
Future Expectations 59.5 49.5 53.0 55.3 53.3 54.3 52.5
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
MNI Russia Business Indicator
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
While asset freezes and travel bans have already been
imposed on members of Russian president Vladimir
Putin’s inner circle, who have been accused of
supporting the country’s efforts against Ukraine, the
EU and US have repeatedly warned that wide-ranging
sectoral sanctions would be imposed if the country
refuses to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine.
In May, seven out of the 15 future expectations
indicators fell while two remained unchanged from
April.
16. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201416
Current conditions for Production declined to the
lowest in two months following a small rise in the
previous month. The Production Indicator fell to 55.3
in May from 57.3 in April and was significantly below
the 61.0 outturn seen in the same period a year ago.
There have been some limited signs of a pick-up in
the economy with industrial production growing for
the third consecutive month in April, by 2.4% on the
year, following growth of 1.4% in March, although it
still remains weak.
The Production Indicator declined for manufacturing
and service companies and remained stable among
construction companies.
Companies were more optimistic about the next three
months, with the Future Expectations Indicator
broadly stable at 51.7 compared with 52.0 in April,
albeit 12% below the level in the same period a year
earlier.
Expectations about Production levels in the next three
months remained flat for service sector companies
while they declined for manufacturing and construction
sector companies.
Production
Declines in May
55.3
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Production
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Production
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 61.0 48.3 58.2 59.3 52.5 57.3 55.3
Future Expectations 58.8 47.5 50.5 52.0 50.8 52.0 51.7
17. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 17
The New Orders Indicator fell to the lowest since
December and was well below the level witnessed in
the same period a year earlier, highlighting the
slowdown in the economy over the past year.
The New Orders Indicator declined to 54.8 in May
from 58.8 in the previous month, a decline of 6.8%
on the month. The fall in New Orders was across all
three sectors (manufacturing, construction, and
service).
Under the growing threat of more widespread
sanctions, expectations of companies for New Orders
in three months‘ time remained low and were 11.1%
below the same period a year ago. The Expectations
Indicator rose marginally to 52.7 in May from 52.2 in
the previous month.
New Orders
Lowest Since December
54.8
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
New Orders
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
New Orders
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 73.8 48.8 57.6 62.5 57.5 58.8 54.8
Future Expectations 59.3 46.5 50.3 51.0 51.8 52.2 52.7
18. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201418
The Export Orders Indicator increased for the first
time in three months in May after falling to a record
low level in the previous month in the wake of rising
tensions with the EU and US over the situation in
Ukraine.
The Export Orders Indicator rose by 5.6% on the
month to 46.9 in May from 44.4 in the previous
month. Tensions in the region have led to a clear
reduction in overseas orders with the indicator down
by 23.2% from the same period a year ago.
All three sectors reported a rise in Export Orders,
although the indicator remained below the 50 mark
among services and manufacturing companies.
Companies were less optimistic about future Export
Orders and the indicator remained in contraction for
the ninth consecutive month, not least as there were
few signs of a resolution of the situation in Ukraine.
The Expectations Indicator declined to 43.0 in May
from 43.5 in the previous month.
Export Orders
Remain Below 50
46.9
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Export Orders
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Export Orders
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 61.1 49.2 50.8 57.2 48.3 44.4 46.9
Future Expectations 57.9 41.7 46.3 47.1 43.0 43.5 43.0
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trend in Exports
Exports FOB (billion USD)
Exports y/y % (RHS)
*Source: The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
19. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 19
The Productive Capacity Indicator increased to 51.5
in May from 50.0 in April, a rise of 3% on the month.
Productive Capacity has been broadly stable over the
past six months and May marked the first pick-up.
In spite of the latest gain, capacity was considerably
down from the outturn of 57.3 seen in May 2013.
The Expectations Indicator increased above the 50
expansion/contraction level for the first time in nine
months. It rose to 50.3 in May having remained flat at
49.7 for five consecutive months.
Productive Capacity
Highest Since October 2013
51.5
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Productive Capacity
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 57.3 50.5 50.3 50.3 50.3 50.0 51.5
Future Expectations 57.3 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 50.3
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Productive Capacity and Rate of Capacity Utilisation
MNI Productive Capacity
Rate of Capacity Utilisation*
*Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
20. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201420
Given the current weak demand backdrop, Order
Backlogs have remained in contraction for three
months. The Order Backlogs Indicator rose to 42.3
from the record low level of 39.5 in April and was
below the outturn seen in the same month a year ago.
The indicator for Order Backlogs increased to the
breakeven 50 level in May for construction companies
while manufacturing companies remained in
contraction. The slowdown in the economy has
resulted in a greater degree of excess capacity, which
means companies are better placed to meet any new
demand swiftly.
Future Expectations for backlogs remained firmly in
contraction and increased slightly to 43.3 from 42.5
in April. Except for May last year, when the Future
Expectations Indicator was exactly 50, expectations
for Order Backlogs have always been in contraction,
although have trended up gradually since October.
Order Backlogs
Remain in Contraction
42.3
30
35
40
45
50
55
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Order Backlogs
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 45.9 48.7 51.4 52.0 47.4 39.5 42.3
Future Expectations 50.0 41.5 42.7 43.3 43.0 42.5 43.3
21. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 21
The majority of companies continued to report that
the number of employees they had was just right,
although the Employment Indicator increased for the
second month in a row to 52.8 from 50.8 in the
previous month.
Firms are asked whether they have too few, too many
or just the right number of employees. A reading
below 50 indicates they have too many, above that
they have too few, while 50 is seen as neutral.
Over the past year, companies’ hiring has reduced
considerably with the Employment Indicator down by
6.2% in line with the downturn in the economy.
There was a sharp rise in the Employment Indicator
for construction companies in May as the proportion
of those who said their employment levels were not
enough rose sharply. Manufacturing firms reported a
smaller increase while the indicator for service
companies remained flat close to the 50 expansion/
contraction mark.
Companies in our panel were slightly more optimistic
about employment in the next three months as the
Expectations Indicator rose to 50.5 from 50.0 in
April, the highest since March.
Employment
Highest Since June 2013
52.8
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Employment
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Employment
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 56.3 49.0 48.3 50.0 50.0 50.8 52.8
Future Expectations 51.8 47.2 49.7 49.5 50.5 50.0 50.5
22. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201422
The Inventories Indicator rose sharply to 39.2
following a significant fall in the previous month to
32.2, although it was the ninth consecutive month it
has been in contraction, indicating a continued fall in
stock levels of finished goods.
The current weak economic environment, coupled
with the tensions in Ukraine, have created a highly
uncertain environment for many companies that have
chosen to run down stocks.
The rise in inventories was led by manufacturing and
construction companies, although both remained well
below the 50 expansion/contraction level.
Companies expected to raise their inventories slightly
in three months’ time with the Future Expectations
indicator increasing to 43.4 in May from 41.2 in the
previous month. Companies began destocking in
September last year and their expectations for the
future turned negative in November and have
remained in contraction since then.
Inventories
Rise Significantly
39.2
30
35
40
45
50
55
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Inventories
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Inventories
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 50.8 46.5 38.2 44.4 40.4 32.2 39.2
Future Expectations 47.7 45.7 43.8 43.8 40.2 41.2 43.4
23. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 23
The Input Prices Indicator declined slightly for the
second month in a row to 51.0 in May from 51.8 in
April, below the series average of 54.4. The decline
was mainly led by construction companies where the
proportion of those who reported higher input prices
declined sharply.
The three month trend in Input Prices has declined
significantly since the summer of 2013 and has been
flat in recent months.
Companies expected input prices in the next three
months to fall slightly. The Expectations Indicator
declined to a series low of 50.0 from 50.3 in the
previous month.
Input Prices
Lowest Since August 2013
51.0
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Input Prices
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Input Prices
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 68.8 51.5 54.5 51.3 52.1 51.8 51.0
Future Expectations 59.4 50.5 50.0 50.0 52.1 50.3 50.0
24. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201424
The Prices Received Indicator, which measures the
prices that companies charge for their goods and
services, declined to 50 in May from 50.5 in April.
There was a drop in the proportion of manufacturing
companies who charged higher prices compared with
the previous month. The Prices Received Indicator for
construction companies increased above the
breakeven level after remaining at the 50 mark for the
past six months in a row. There was a rise in the
proportion of service sector firms who reported a
decline in Prices Received compared with the previous
month.
The Future Expectations indicator remained broadly
stable at 51.0 in May compared with 51.3 in April, as
the majority of the companies reported that they
expected their prices would remain the same.
This was the second consecutive month that the
indicator for Prices Received was lower than their
future expectations indicating some future inflationary
pressure remains.
Consumer price inflation rose sharply to 7.3% in April,
from 6.9% in March, as food price inflation accelerated
to 9% from 8.4% in the previous month. The central
bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, now expects inflation
of 5-6% in 2014, missing the 5% target set for 2014.
The recent weakening of the rouble has fuelled
inflation, although planned lower hikes in administered
prices and tariffs should provide some relief.
Prices Received
Falls to 50
50.0
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Prices Received
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Prices Received
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 67.3 52.8 57.7 53.8 53.1 50.5 50.0
Future Expectations 54.5 49.2 49.4 48.7 51.3 51.3 51.0
25. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 25
Russian companies felt the pinch of the stand-off with
the West amid the threat of further sanctions following
Crimea’s annexation. The indicator measuring the
Financial Position of companies declined for the third
consecutive month in May to the lowest since August
2013.
The Financial Position Indicator declined by almost
6% to 56.3 in May from 59.8 in April. The decline put
the indicator significantly below the level seen in the
same period a year earlier. Since March 2013, when
the survey started, the financial position of Russian
companies has remained fairly healthy in spite of the
economic slowdown, with the indicator averaging
60.3.
On May 19, the MICEX traded above 1,400 points for
the first time since March 3 as President Putin ordered
troops to return to their bases.
Companies remained nervous about the future course
of events and the impact on their Financial Position.
The Indicator for Future Expectations fell to a record
low of 53.6 in May from 54.4 in the previous month,
mainly led by service sector companies.
Financial Position
Future Expectations Hit a
Record Low
56.3
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Financial Position
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Financial Position
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 68.0 59.1 62.6 63.8 60.1 59.8 56.3
Future Expectations 56.0 57.8 56.9 58.4 55.6 54.4 53.6
26. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201426
The indicator for Interest Rates Paid remained flat at
49.7 in April, the second month below the 50
expansion/contraction mark.
The effect of the rate hike in late April has not yet
been passed onto businesses, as the majority of
companies reported no change in their interest costs.
In a surprise move, the central bank raised its key rate
to 7.5% from 7% at the end of April and said that it
does not expect to cut rates in the coming months.
While the bank pointed to the continued high level of
inflation as the main reason for the tightening it’s
monetary policy, the rise came soon after S&P cut
Russia’s sovereign rating and looked like a move to
stem the negative impact, especially on the currency
The yield on the Russian 10-year government bond
increased significantly to 9.47% on May 21, up from
8.93% on April 16, while the three month interbank
rate increased to 9.1% from 9% in April.
The indicators for manufacturing and construction
sector companies were close to the expansion/
contraction line, while for services companies it
remained below 50, although the majority said they
paid the same interest rates as in the previous month.
Companies expected Interest Rates Paid over the
coming three months to remain in contraction territory
and broadly stable at 49.7 compared with 49.4 in
April.
Interest Rates Paid
Remains Flat
49.7
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Interest Rates Paid
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Interest Rates Paid
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 54.1 52.4 52.6 54.3 50.0 49.7 49.7
Future Expectations 52.2 50.6 50.0 50.0 49.4 49.4 49.7
27. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 27
The Effect of Rouble Exchange Rate Indicator, which
measures whether the exchange rate is helping or
hurting businesses, increased for the first time in
three months to 53.3 in May compared with 50.9 in
April.
A value above 50 shows more firms reported that the
exchange rate was helping, while a reading below 50
shows the exchange rate was hurting.
The indicator hit at a series high in February before
falling sharply as the rouble depreciated amid large
capital outflows following Russia’s annexation of
Crimea.
The rouble has fallen by around 12% against the US
dollar since a year ago and about 4% since the start
of the year and the speed of descent has raised fears
of economic instability among companies. There has
been a small recovery in the currency over the past
two months.
Only a few manufacturing companies reported that
the exchange rate was hurting business in May, in
contrast to none in April. Moreover, there was an
increase in the proportion of services companies who
reported that the exchange rate was benefiting their
business. The indicator for construction companies
was flat at 50 for the third time in a row.
Expectations for three months’ time remained at 50.0
for the seventh consecutive month, having stood
slightly above the breakeven level in September and
October 2013.
Effect of Rouble Exchange Rate
More Companies say Exchange
Rate is Helping
53.3
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Effect of Rouble Exchange Rate
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Effect of Rouble Exchange Rate
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 50.9 55.4 56.9 61.0 53.7 50.9 53.3
Future Expectations 49.7 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Depreciation in the Rouble
RUB against USD
Source: The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
28. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201428
The time taken to deliver supplies to companies
lengthened in May. The Indicator for Supplier Delivery
Times rose above the breakeven level to 51.8 from
49.5 in the previous month.
The rise in the indicator was led by manufacturing
companies as there was a sharp rise in the proportion
of companies who said supplier delivery times were
longer, although the majority still said they were the
same.
Expectations for three months’ time remained
unchanged in May at 49.7 for the fifth consecutive
month. Future expectations have remained broadly
stable since March last year, when the survey started,
with the series averaging 49.7, and only rising above
the breakeven level of 50 twice since then.
Supplier Delivery Times
Series High
51.8
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Supplier Delivery Times
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Supplier Delivery Times
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 51.5 49.5 51.7 50.5 50.0 49.5 51.8
Future Expectations 49.7 49.5 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7
29. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 29
More companies reported that they had better access
to credit in May, as the Availability of Credit Indicator
increased significantly by 11.1% to 59.9 from 53.9 in
the previous month, the highest on record.
Credit availability had risen gradually in 2013 and it
subsequently dipped towards the end of the year
before picking up again in March. The gain on the
month put it almost 16% above the level seen in May
a year earlier.
The improvement in credit availability was across all
sectors with the indicator for manufacturing and
construction companies hitting the highest in 10
months.
Businesses were less optimistic about credit
availability in the next three months time as the
Expectations Indicator declined slightly to 50.6 from
51.5 in the previous month.
International credit rating agency S&P cut Russia‘s
rating to one notch above junk status after repeated
warnings, as foreign investors continued to take
money out of the country amid tensions in Ukraine. It
warned that further downgrades were possible if the
West imposed tighter sanctions against Moscow as
wider financial sanctions could cut off Russia’s credit
lines, raising concerns that firms may not be able to
refinance debt without the state’s support.
Availability of Credit
Hits Series High
59.9
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Availability of Credit
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Availability of Credit
May-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Current Conditions 51.7 57.9 55.0 51.9 53.0 53.9 59.9
Future Expectations 52.5 51.1 50.9 50.9 50.0 51.5 50.6
32. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201432
Historical Records
2013- Current
Minimum Maximum Mean Median
MNI Russia Business Indicator
Current Conditions 45.5 62.9 55.5 56.3
Future Expectations 45.0 71.3 55.9 55.0
Production
Current Conditions 48.3 61.1 55.9 57.3
Future Expectations 45.5 58.8 53.5 52.0
New Orders
Current Conditions 48.8 73.8 58.7 58.8
Future Expectations 45.5 62.8 54.4 52.7
Export Orders
Current Conditions 44.4 61.1 52.0 50.8
Future Expectations 41.6 66.0 49.2 46.3
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions 50.0 57.7 52.1 51.0
Future Expectations 48.5 63.2 52.2 49.7
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions 39.5 52.0 46.5 47.1
Future Expectations 37.7 50.0 44.2 43.3
Employment
Current Conditions 47.7 56.5 51.7 51.0
Future Expectations 46.2 53.6 49.9 50.5
Inventories
Current Conditions 32.2 50.8 45.7 48.7
Future Expectations 37.5 51.9 45.2 45.7
Input Prices
Current Conditions 50.5 68.8 54.4 52.1
Future Expectations 50.0 67.9 54.5 52.1
Prices Received
Current Conditions 46.3 67.3 54.6 53.5
Future Expectations 48.7 55.8 52.1 51.3
Financial Position
Current Conditions 51.8 68.0 60.3 60.1
Future Expectations 53.6 68.5 58.7 57.7
Interest Rates Paid
Current Conditions 49.7 57.4 52.6 52.5
Future Expectations 49.4 54.5 51.0 50.3
Effect of Rouble Exchange Rate
Current Conditions 49.4 61.0 52.7 51.0
Future Expectations 48.2 50.7 49.8 50.0
Supplier Delivery Time
Current Conditions 45.9 51.8 49.5 50.0
Future Expectations 49.1 50.8 49.7 49.7
Availability of Credit
Current Conditions 48.1 59.9 53.7 53.9
Future Expectations 50.0 55.6 52.3 52.2
33. MNI Russia Business Report - May 2014 33
Historical Records - Quarterly
Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Quarterly
Change
Quarterly %
Change
Current Conditions 54.0 51.1 56.8 5.7 11.2%
Future Expectations 58.5 47.2 53.9 6.7 14.2%
Production
Current Conditions 52.9 53.4 56.7 3.3 6.2%
Future Expectations 57.7 47.1 51.1 4.0 8.5%
New Orders
Current Conditions 55.3 53.9 59.2 5.3 9.8%
Future Expectations 60.3 46.9 51.0 4.1 8.7%
Export Orders
Current Conditions 48.6 50.0 52.1 2.1 4.2%
Future Expectations 49.5 41.8 45.5 3.7 8.9%
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions 51.1 51.0 50.3 -0.7 -1.4%
Future Expectations 51.5 49.0 49.7 0.7 1.4%
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions 47.4 48.8 50.3 1.5 3.1%
Future Expectations 47.6 40.9 43.0 2.1 5.1%
Employment
Current Conditions 51.3 49.3 49.4 0.1 0.2%
Future Expectations 49.9 46.5 49.9 3.4 7.3%
Inventories
Current Conditions 49.8 47.0 41.0 -6.0 -12.8%
Future Expectations 48.9 46.5 42.6 -3.9 -8.4%
Input Prices
Current Conditions 53.8 53.0 52.6 -0.4 -0.8%
Future Expectations 55.8 50.9 50.7 -0.2 -0.4%
Prices Received
Current Conditions 54.4 54.9 54.9 0.0 0.0%
Future Expectations 55.0 49.8 49.8 0.0 0.0%
Financial Position
Current Conditions 55.6 59.9 62.2 2.3 3.8%
Future Expectations 63.7 57.9 57.0 -0.9 -1.6%
Interest Rates Paid
Current Conditions 52.0 51.2 52.3 1.1 2.1%
Future Expectations 50.8 50.4 49.8 -0.6 -1.2%
Effect of Rouble Exchange Rate
Current Conditions 50.0 54.3 57.2 2.9 5.3%
Future Expectations 49.7 50.2 50.0 -0.2 -0.4%
Supplier Delivery Time
Current Conditions 47.8 49.8 50.7 0.9 1.8%
Future Expectations 49.7 49.4 49.7 0.3 0.6%
Availability of Credit
Current Conditions 52.6 56.9 53.3 -3.6 -6.3%
Future Expectations 53.6 52.2 50.6 -1.6 -3.1%
34. MNI Russia Business Report - May 201434
Methodology
MNI Russia Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of
Russian business executives at companies listed on
the Moscow Exchange. Companies are a mix of
manufacturing, service, construction and agricultural
firms.
Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a
particular business activity has increased, decreased
or remained the same compared with the previous
month as well as their expectations for three months
ahead, e.g. Is Production Higher/Same/Lower
compared with a month ago?
A diffusion indicator is then calculated by adding the
percentage share of positive responses to half the
percentage of those respondents reporting no change.
An indicator reading above 50 shows expansion,
below 50 indicates contraction and a result of 50
means no change.
Data is collected through computer aided telephone
interviews and around 200 companies are surveyed
each month.
35. Insight and data for better decisions
Discovering trends in Emerging
Markets
MNI’s Emerging Markets Indicators explore attitudes, perspectives and confidence
in Russia, India and China. Our data and monthly reports present an advance
picture of the economic landscape as perceived by businesses and consumers.
Our indicators allow investors, economists, analysts, and companies to identify
economic trends and make informed investment and business decisions. Our data
moves markets.
www.mni-indicators.com