The Chicago Business Barometer fell 5.4 points to 60.8 in November, driven by a significant drop in new orders, which decreased to 61.9. Despite the decline, overall orders remain firm, indicating continued growth in the US economy, with expectations for stronger results in Q4. Employment indicators also declined for the first time in three months, reflecting a cautious hiring approach by companies.

1. Embargoed until 9:45 A.M. E.T., 26 November 2014
Media Release
Chicago Business Barometer Falls 5.4 Points to 60.8 in November
New Orders and Production at the Lowest Since September
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 5.4 points to 60.8 in November from a one year high of 66.2 in October driven by a double digit drop in New Orders.
The Barometer‘s decline reversed nearly all of October’s sharp increase, leaving it back close to the September level. All five components which contribute to the Barometer fell between October and November.
In spite of the slowdown, orders and output continued to expand at a healthy pace. Production, New Orders and the Barometer itself have been running above 60 for four months in a row, suggesting continued firm growth in the US economy.
New Orders decreased by 11.7 points to 61.9 in November having increased sharply to a one year high in October. Overall orders remain firm and barring a sharp fall in December are likely to record firmer growth in Q4 than Q3. While some panellists said November was steady compared with a month ago, others reported a busy period in the run up to Christmas.
Production also expanded at a slower rate, but was the strongest component of the Barometer in November. It’s currently running above both its 10- year average and the average for the past 12 months.
In line with strong sales forecasts, companies built stocks at a slightly faster rate than in October but below September’s 41-year high. 66% of panellists reported that their current level of finished goods inventories was ‘about right‘ to keep up with demand.
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
For more information:
Naomi Pickens
Media Relations
Deutsche Börse
T+1-212-669-6459
naomi.pickens@deutsche-boerse.com
203040506070802005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Chicago Business BarometerTM
Sales enquiries: info@mni-indicators.com
Editorial content:
Philip Uglow,
Chief Economist, MNI Indicators
Following the quicker pace of jobs growth in October, companies were less keen to hire in November. The Employment Indicator declined for the first time in three months to the lowest level since March.
Commenting on the Chicago Report, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, “Following the sharp rise in the Barometer to a one year high in October it wasn’t too surprising to see activity ease somewhat in November. Overall the trend remains firm and activity looks set to pick up in Q4 from Q3.“

2. 2
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
About MNI Indicators
MNI Indicators specialises in producing business and consumer surveys designed to present an advance picture of the economic landscape and highlight changing trends in business and consumer activity. The timely reports explore attitudes, perspectives and sentiment across the globe, including China, India and Russia. Alongside MNI Indicators’ core focus on consumer and business surveys in emerging markets, MNI Indicators produces the renowned Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI), a key leading indicator of the US economy. MNI Indicators is part of MNI, a leading provider of news and intelligence, a wholly owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse AG, and one of the largest worldwide exchange organisations.
About ISM-Chicago
ISM-Chicago is a non-profit association dedicated to strengthening the community of purchasing and supply management professionals in the Chicagoland area. As an affiliate of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the organization is committed to the ongoing professional development of its members and the purchasing and supply management profession through education, research and communication. For more information on becoming a part of ISM-Chicago, call (847) 298-1940.
Notes to Editors
Please source all information to MNI Indicators.
The MNI Chicago Report is published by MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, in partnership with the ISM-Chicago.
The MNI Chicago Report is published monthly and contains the Chicago Business BarometerTM and a number of other Business Activity and Buying Policy indicators. The data is seasonally adjusted.
The Chicago Business BarometerTM is a closely watched leading indicator of U.S. economic activity and is based on a survey panel of purchasing/supply- chain professionals, primarily drawn from membership of the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago (ISM-Chicago). The survey panel contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms, many with global operations.
The Chicago Business BarometerTM is a composite diffusion indicator made up of the Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indicators and is designed to predict future changes in gross domestic product (GDP).
An indicator reading above 50 indicates expansion compared with a month earlier while below 50 indicates contraction. A result of 50 is neutral. The farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.