The MNI India Business Indicator increased to 63.4 in January from 57.8 in December, pushing sentiment 4.6% above the level seen a year earlier.

1. MNI India Business Report
January 2014
Insight and data for better decisions

2. 2
MNI India Business Report - January 2014
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Shaily Mittal, Economist
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3. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Contents
4
Editorial
32
What the Panel Said
6
Executive Summary
34
Data Tables
10
Economic Landscape
38
Methodology
14
Indicators
15
MNI India Business Indicator
16
Production
17
New Orders
18
Export Orders
19
Productive Capacity
21
Order Backlogs
22
Employment
23
Inventories
24
Input Prices
25
Prices Received
26
Financial Position
27
Interest Rates Paid
29
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
30
Supplier Delivery Times
31
Availability of Credit
3

4. 4
Spitzzeile Titel
Aiming for a target
Mr Raghuram, like Fed Governor Ben Bernanke or
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, is seen as
a new breed of rock-star central banker. Any selfrespecting central banker these days needs an
inflation target – something that India has not had.

5. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
When the Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram
Rajan took up office in September last year, he
immediately commissioned his Deputy Governor to
report within three months on what needs to be done
to strengthen the monetary policy framework. Mr
Raghuram, like Fed Governor Ben Bernanke or Bank
of England Governor Mark Carney is seen as a new
breed of rock-star central banker. And any selfrespecting central banker these days needs an
inflation target – something that India to date has not
explicitly had.
The report’s findings were published in January and
recommend a number of changes to the current rather
archaic set-up, most importantly the adoption of an
explicit inflation target and the creation of a monetary
policy committee which would vote on policy moves,
in contrast to the current set-up where the governor
himself decides.
The actual recommendations, which seem likely to be
introduced at some point, suggest that the central
bank should target consumer price inflation at 4%
within a range of 2% above or below at all times.
Given that inflation on this measure is currently close
to 10%, the report recommends that a rate of 8%
should be aimed for in 12 months and 6% in 24
months, before the 4% target is finally adopted.
Inflation targeting is popular, but not without its
critics. One key issue the central bank would face
should it move to the new targeting framework is just
how to ensure CPI inflation falls towards the target
amid a backdrop of weak growth. Not wanting to miss
their new target could mean the new Monetary Policy
Committee could err on the side of caution, and keep
monetary policy relatively tight.
India will face other problems should it adopt an
inflation targeting regime. First, the economy is
vulnerable to supply shocks especially from food and
oil. Food price inflation leapt to 19% over the summer
of 2013, with a well publicised rise in onion price
inflation to 336%! Supply shocks can both reduce
growth and raise inflation and tightening policy in
response can make things worse and lead to increased
variability in output. Unlike a developed country
which might target core inflation, food makes up
around 50% of the CPI basket in India making it
difficult to ignore. In the case of India, to make
inflation targeting more effective, government efforts
to increase food security would help.
A second issue faced by India is the monetary
transmission mechanism and whether the central
bank has the necessary tool in the form of short term
interest rates to ensure the target is met. As noted in
the report itself, India requires various financial sector
reforms and deregulation to improve the transmission
mechanism.
Inflation has been a large problem for India and
something which has an adversely large impact on
poorer households. Anchoring inflation at a target rate
could bring long-term rewards for the country,
although the central bank should be careful not to
constrain output too much on the journey to 4%.
Philip Uglow
Chief Economist
MNI Indicators
5

6. 6
Spitzzeile Titel
Executive Summary
The MNI India Business Indicator increased to 63.4
in January from 57.8 in December. Business
conditions
improved
considerably
among
manufacturing companies, while they improved by
less for service and construction sector companies.

7. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
The MNI India Business Indicator increased to 63.4
in January from 57.8 in December, pushing sentiment
4.6% above the level seen a year earlier.
Business conditions improved considerably among
manufacturing companies, while they improved by
less for both service and construction sector
companies.
Future expectations have increased significantly since
April, although the improvement has eased in recent
months. Expectations for business conditions in three
months’ time increased to 72.0 in January from 71.1
in December, pushing the three-month average up to
70.9.
Twelve out of the 15 current conditions indicators
included in the report increased in January. Input
Prices, Interest Rates Paid and Order Backlogs
declined, with the latter hitting a series low. For
Business Expectations in the next three months, 11
indicators rose compared with the previous month.
Production made a broad-based pick-up in January,
following a decline in December, to stand 8.4% above
the level seen in January 2013.
The New Orders Indicator increased 5.5% on the
month to 63.6 in January from 60.3 in December,
boosted by increased orders at manufacturing and
construction companies.
Order Backlogs continued their long-term downward
decline in January, falling to their lowest level since
the series started in April 2013. The indicator fell
from 41.7 in December to 35.6 in January, a drop of
14.6% on the month and pushing backlogs further
into contraction.
The Employment Indicator increased for the second
consecutive month in January to 51.8 from 50.0 in
December, having fallen into contraction in November
for the first time last year.
The Input Price indicator eased for the second
consecutive month, declining 2.8% from 71.8 in
December to 69.8 in January. In spite of the latest
decline it remains at an elevated level. Most companies
surveyed still complained that high inflation was a
serious problem and that rising input prices were
adding to their costs.
The cost of credit faced by companies eased further in
January, with the Interest Rates Paid Indicator
declining to 60.5 from 69.2 in December, the lowest
since October.
The Effect of the Rupee Exchange Rate Indicator
increased to 44.3 in January from 39.4 in December,
a rise of 12.4% on the month. More companies
reported that the exchange rate was helping their
business, although the majority said it did not affect
them.
The Financial Position Indicator rose to 68.2 in
January, back close to the level seen in November,
following a decline to 65.2 in December.
Both service and construction sector companies
reported better financial conditions at the start of the
year compared with the end of last year.
7

8. 8
MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Overview
Nov -13
Dec -13
Jan-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Current Conditions
64.6
57.8
63.4
Nov-13
-
61.9
5.6
9.7%
Future Expectations
69.5
71.1
72.0
Sep-13
-
70.9
0.9
1.3%
Current Conditions
65.3
59.7
64.4
Nov-13
-
63.1
4.7
7.9%
Future Expectations
68.8
66.2
71.6
Sep-13
-
68.9
5.4
8.2%
Current Conditions
62.9
60.3
63.6
Sep-13
-
62.3
3.3
5.5%
Future Expectations
68.5
65.4
65.5
Nov-13
-
66.5
0.1
0.2%
Current Conditions
58.8
60.5
61.4
Sep-13
-
60.2
0.9
1.5%
Future Expectations
60.8
67.9
62.9
-
Nov-13
63.9
-5.0
-7.4%
Current Conditions
61.3
51.3
58.0
Nov-13
-
56.9
6.7
13.1%
Future Expectations
65.2
57.5
64.3
Nov-13
-
62.3
6.8
11.8%
Current Conditions
45.3
41.7
35.6
-
series low
40.9
-6.1
-14.6%
Future Expectations
48.8
43.7
35.2
-
Jun-13
42.6
-8.5
-19.5%
Current Conditions
48.9
50.0
51.8
Sep-13
-
50.2
1.8
3.6%
Future Expectations
49.5
52.2
53.4
Sep-13
-
51.7
1.2
2.3%
Current Conditions
50.0
53.1
62.1
series high
-
55.1
9.0
16.9%
Future Expectations
53.3
54.6
59.5
series high
-
55.8
4.9
9.0%
Current Conditions
73.0
71.8
69.8
-
Oct-13
71.5
-2.0
-2.8%
Future Expectations
72.5
66.4
69.9
Nov-13
-
69.6
3.5
5.3%
Current Conditions
60.8
58.0
60.6
Nov-13
-
59.8
2.6
4.5%
Future Expectations
63.8
56.0
60.9
Nov-13
-
60.2
4.9
8.8%
Current Conditions
69.9
65.2
68.2
Nov-13
-
67.8
3.0
4.6%
Future Expectations
74.2
71.3
71.5
Nov-13
-
72.3
0.2
0.3%
Current Conditions
73.2
69.2
60.5
-
Oct-13
67.6
-8.7
-12.6%
Future Expectations
69.6
56.8
57.9
Nov-13
-
61.4
1.1
1.9%
Current Conditions
43.4
39.4
44.3
Jul-13
-
42.4
4.9
12.4%
Future Expectations
43.5
43.2
43.6
Aug-13
-
43.4
0.4
0.9%
Current Conditions
52.9
54.2
54.4
Sep-13
-
53.8
0.2
0.4%
Future Expectations
55.0
54.2
51.7
-
Aug-13
53.6
-2.5
-4.6%
Current Conditions
55.7
52.6
56.8
Sep-13
-
55.0
4.2
8.0%
Future Expectations
59.2
58.8
54.1
-
Jun-13
57.4
-4.7
-8.0%
MNI India Business Indicator
Production
New Orders
Export Orders
Productive Capacity
Order Backlogs
Employment
Inventories
Input Prices
Prices Received
Financial Position
Interest Rates Paid
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Supplier Delivery Times
Availability of Credit

9. w
India’s inflation rate
fell to 6.2% in
December from a
14-month high of
7.5% in November.
Onion prices were up 39.6% in December but this
was well down from the 190% increase seen in
November.

10. 10
Spitzzeile Titel
Economic Landscape
Latest official economic data has done little to lift
the current feeling of economic gloom.

11. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Latest official economic data has done little to lift the
current feeling of economic gloom. Following a 4.8%
rise in GDP in the July-September quarter, latest data
on industrial production for November showed output
was still below levels a year earlier. Manufacturing
output fared even worse contracting 3.5% on the
year. Export growth slowed causing a rise in the trade
deficit while the budget deficit remains high.
in the second half of this financial year on the back of
expansion in the agriculture sector, improved exports
and investment due to clearance of stalled projects.
The economy has to expand 5.4% in the second half
to achieve 5% growth in the full year, an ambitious
target given weak industrial growth and uncomfortably
high inflation.
One ray of light came from the inflation data which
showed wholesale price inflation falling for the first
time since May which should allow the Reserve Bank
of India to halt its monetary tightening. Analysts
expect that policy will remain unchanged at the
upcoming policy meeting at the end of January,
although news that the RBI could possibly target
consumer price inflation caused a sharp fall in bond
markets.
Economic Growth
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q1 2012
Q3 2011
Q1 2011
Q3 2010
Q1 2010
Q3 2009
0%
Q1 2009
GDP expands 4.8% in the quarter ending September
Economic growth increased by 4.8% on the year in
the three months to September, up from 4.4% in the
previous quarter, although below the 5.2% seen in
the same period a year ago.
12%
GDP y/y %
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
The acceleration in growth may have been partly due
to a good monsoon which helped boost agricultural
output, while manufacturing activity remained
anaemic. Agricultural output rose 4.6% on the year,
compared with 2.7% in the previous quarter.
Manufacturing posted a 1% increase, up from the
1.2% fall seen in the previous quarter, although only
0.1% above the same period a year earlier.
On an expenditure basis, higher exports and a surge in
investment were the main drivers of growth, expanding
by 16.3% and 2.6% respectively on the year, having
both fallen by 1.2% in the three months to June.
Private consumption, the largest component of GDP,
rose 2.2% in the three months to September compared
with a year earlier, up from 1.6% in the three months to
June, but down from 3.5% in the same quarter last year.
The Reserve Bank of India lowered its growth forecast
for the 2013-14 fiscal year to 5% from 5.7% in
October 2013. It expects economic growth to improve
Industrial output declines further
Industrial production contracted for the second
consecutive month, falling 2.1% on the year in
November, driven by a sharp decline in manufacturing
output.
Manufacturing output was down 3.5% in November
compared with a year earlier, down from the decline
of 1.8% seen in October. Overall, ten out of the 22
industry groups within the manufacturing sector
contracted in November, led by a 42.2% fall in Radio,
TV and communication equipment & apparatus,
followed by a 27.5% fall in Office, accounting &
computing machinery.
Output of consumer durables, a measure of consumer
demand, posted the twelfth consecutive decline,
falling 21.5% in November compared with a fall of
12.1% in October.
11

12. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Industrial Production
250
25%
20%
200
15%
10%
150
5%
0%
100
-5%
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-10%
2007
50
Industrial Production y/y %
Industrial Production
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
Capital goods output, a proxy for investment in the
economy, grew slightly by 0.3% in November, down
from a 2.4% growth in October.
Following a 3.5% contraction on the year in October,
mining output grew 1% in November, helping to boost
the wider measure of industrial production.
Some relief from high prices
India’s rate of inflation, measured by the Wholesale
Price Index, fell to 6.2% in December from a 14-month
high of 7.5% in November, the first monthly decline
since May.
Food price inflation eased to 13.7% after accelerating
to 19.9% in November. Onion prices were still up
39.6% in December, but this was well down from the
190% increase seen in November. Fuel prices
remained broadly stable and rose by 11% on the year.
Consumer price inflation also eased in December to a
three-month low of 9.9% compared with 11.2% in
November. Food price inflation, which has a weight of
45.7% in the index, eased to 12.2% from 14.7% in
November. The moderation was driven by a cooling of
vegetable prices that rose by 38.8% compared with a
year earlier, down from 61.6% in November.
Consumer Price Inflation
12.0%
11.5%
11.0%
10.5%
10.0%
9.5%
9.0%
Wholesale Price Inflation
8.5%
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
8%
Jun-12
8.0%
9%
Source: MOSPI
7%
6%
5%
4%
Source: Office of the Economic Advisor, India
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
3%
Apr-12
12
Eyes on next monetary policy decision
The Reserve Bank of India kept the policy rate
unchanged at 7.75% at its December meeting, citing
high uncertainty about the short-term path of inflation,
the weakness of the economy and the lagged impact
of monetary policy on the economy.
The bank said that there were indications that
vegetable prices may be decreasing. However, the

13. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
bank warned that it would hike interest rates if
inflation does not fall in line with the expected trend.
The next monetary policy meeting is on January 28
and analysts expect rates to be left on hold given that
inflation remains at a high level. Even though
wholesale price inflation dropped slightly, core
consumer price inflation (food and fuel prices
excluded) in December was as high as 8%.
Budget Deficit Rises
The government budget deficit stood at Rs.5.1 trillion
($82 billion) in the April-November period, about
94% of the target for the year ending March 2014.
Total revenue from taxes fell 52% short of target in
the same period. The gap in the public finances has
put the nation’s debt rating at risk, with most credit
rating agencies keeping India on a special watch with
a high probability of a downgrade.
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has pledged to cut
the budget gap to a six-year low of 4.8% of GDP this
fiscal year, from 4.9% in the previous 12 months.
The banks, in which the government holds at least
55%, are paying dividends after the government
announced a Rs.14,000 crore infusion to boost
capital so as to meet the budget deficit goal.
Rise in foreign reserves
Foreign exchange reserves rose to $293.3 billion in
the week ending January 10. According to the RBI’s
weekly statistical supplement, foreign currency
assets, the biggest component of forex reserves, grew
by $190.3 million to $267.1 billion.
Forex reserves surged 7% in the October-December
quarter to $295.7 billion, the biggest quarterly
increase since January-March 2008. Moves by the
RBI have greatly strengthened India’s foreign exchange
reserve position, leaving it less vulnerable to another
run on the currency. The value of India’s gold reserves
remained at $19.7 billion.
Trade deficit widens
India’s trade deficit widened to $10.1 billion in
December as export growth slowed, compared with a
shortfall of $9.2 billion in November. The trade gap,
though, is much improved from the $18 billion deficit
posted in December 2012.
Exports rose for the sixth straight month, but at a
slower pace, up 3.5% from a year earlier to $26.4
billion, down from the 5.9% pace witnessed in
November. Imports fell 15.3% to $36.5 billion. Oil
imports rose to $13.8 billion, higher than the $12.9
billion seen a month earlier and 1.1% above last year.
Gold imports were down almost 70% on the year this
December to $1.8 billion.
The government attributed slow export growth to the
drop in petroleum exports led by an unplanned
maintenance shutdown at Reliance Industries in
December, one of the country’s largest exporters.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan expects India’s current
account deficit to narrow to less than 3% of GDP in
the year through March 2014, from a record high of
4.8% in the previous year.
Car sales decline
The car Industry faced an annual decline in sales for
the first time in 11 years in 2013, with passenger car
sales down 10%, following a rise of 3% in 2012.
Passenger car sales declined for the third consecutive
month in December, to 132,561 units, 4.5% down
from the same period a year earlier. Sales of
commercial vehicles fell 28% in December compared
with the same period a year earlier.
High inflation, rising fuel prices and interest rates
have resulted in a higher cost of ownership, which
has impacted the demand for cars.
13

14. 14
Spitzzeile Titel
Indicators
The MNI India Business Indicator increased to 63.4
in January from 57.8 in December, pushing
sentiment 4.6% above the same month a year
earlier. Twelve out of the 15 current conditions
indicators increased in January.

15. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
63.4
MNI India Business Indicator
Business Confidence Surges
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
40
Feb-13
Confidence tumbled in the first half of 2013 as India
faced a potential financial and economic meltdown
following fears the US Federal Reserve would taper its
bond purchasing operations which caused widespread
panic in emerging markets. The Business Indicator
has trended higher since the summer of 2013 as
financial conditions began to stabilise.
80
Dec-12
Business conditions improved considerably among
manufacturing companies, while they improved by less
for both service and construction sector companies.
MNI India Business Indicator
Nov-12
The MNI India Business Indicator increased to 63.4
in January from 57.8 in December, pushing sentiment
4.6% above the level seen a year earlier.
Current Conditions
Future expectations have also increased significantly
since April, although the improvement has eased in
recent months. Expectations for business conditions
in three months’ time increased to 72.0 in January
from 71.1 in December, pushing the three month
average up to 70.9.
Future Expectations
“Business conditions are better compared
with a month ago because of increased new
orders.”
Consumer Goods company
Manufacturing sector companies were the most
optimistic about the future, while construction and
service firms’ expectations fell compared with the
previous month. All three sectors, though, remained
well above the breakeven level.
Twelve out of the 15 current conditions indicators
included in the report increased in January. Input
Prices, Interest Rates Paid and Order Backlogs
declined, with the latter hitting a series low. For
Business Expectations in the next three months, 11
indicators rose compared with the previous month.
MNI India Business Indicator
Jan-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
60.6
64.0
59.4
59.8
64.6
57.8
63.4
-
75.5
77.1
68.8
69.5
71.1
72.0
15

16. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
64.4
Production
Picks Up in January
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
30
Feb-13
Latest official data on industrial production showed
output fell 2.1% on the year in November. The
narrower measure of manufacturing output fell 3.5%
compared with a year earlier following a decline of
1.8% in October.
80
Dec-12
The Production Indicator increased to 64.4 in January
from 59.7 in December. Production bottomed at 41.0
in April 2013, and since then has risen significantly.
The three month trend over the past five months has
remained broadly flat at a little above 60.
Production
Nov-12
Production made a broad-based pick-up in January
following a decline in December to stand 8.4% above
the level seen in January 2013.
Current Conditions
The Production Indicator rose in all three sectors
(manufacturing, services and construction) in January,
remaining well above the 50 breakeven level.
Companies were optimistic that production would
improve further over the next three months. Future
expectations for Production ramped up to 71.6 in
January, up from 66.2 in December, the highest since
September. The construction sector was less optimistic
about the future, with the indicator falling slightly.
Future Expectations
Industrial Production to Catch Up
70
4%
65
3%
60
2%
55
1%
50
0%
45
-1%
40
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
-3%
May-13
30
Mar-13
-2%
Feb-13
35
Jan-13
16
Industrial Production y/y % (RHS)
MNI Production Indicator
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
Production
Jan-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
59.4
59.9
67.3
57.5
65.3
59.7
64.4
-
71.8
76.8
64.8
68.8
66.2
71.6

17. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
63.6
New Orders
Expand at the Start of 2014
The New Orders Indicator increased 5.5% on the
month to 63.6 in January from 60.3 in December,
boosted by increased orders among manufacturing
and construction companies.
New Orders
90
80
Expectations for New Orders in three months remained
almost flat after December’s decline. The indicator
stood at 65.5 in January compared with 65.4 in
December 2013. After peaking in September, the
indicator has trended lower.
60
50
40
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
30
Dec-12
The New Orders Indicator increased for manufacturing
and construction companies, back to the levels seen
in November last year, following a blip in December.
Orders among service sector firms remained broadly
stable compared with December. All sectors remained
well above the breakeven 50 mark.
70
Nov-12
New Orders hit a record low in April and subsequently
rose to a record high in September, in part due to
seasonal factors as output picked up ahead of the
festival season. The recent three month trend in New
Orders has been reasonably stable over the past six
months, with the indicator hovering around 60. It
picked up to 62.3 in January from 60.9 in December.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Our company expects an increase in new
orders in the next quarter. We may also raise
the price of our product if raw material prices
go up.”
Chemicals Manufacturing company
New Orders
Jan-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
50.8
64.0
69.1
59.5
62.9
60.3
63.6
-
75.0
78.5
69.5
68.5
65.4
65.5
17

18. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
61.4
Export Orders
Highest Since September
The Export Orders Indicator increased slightly to 61.4
in January from 60.5 in December, the highest level
since September and continuing the broad upward
trend seen since April.
Export Orders
80
75
70
Expectations for three months’ time fell sharply to
62.9 in January from 67.9 in December. Service
companies’ expectations remained almost flat, though
they declined for manufacturing and construction
companies, the latter falling into contraction where it
was last seen in August.
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
30
May-13
The depreciation of Rupee helped to increase the
competitiveness of Indian exports in 2013, although
rising input costs offset much of this gain for many
companies.
65
Apr-13
The Export Orders Indicator rose for service sector
companies following a decline in December. There
was a fall for construction and manufacturing
companies.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Export Orders Movement
30
10
20
5
10
0
0
May-13
Dec-13
15
Nov-13
40
Oct-13
20
Sep-13
50
Aug-13
25
Jul-13
60
Jun-13
30
Apr-13
70
Mar-13
35
Feb-13
18
MNI Export Orders (RHS)
Exports,FOB, USD B *
*Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Export Orders
Jan-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Current Conditions
-
55.0
63.2
55.6
58.8
60.5
61.4
Future Expectations
-
62.6
75.5
57.7
60.8
67.9
62.9

19. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
58.0
Productive Capacity
Picks up after December Fall
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
30
Feb-13
Companies’ expectations about capacity in the future
increased as well. Expectations for Productive
Capacity in three months’ time increased to 64.3 in
January from 57.5 in December.
75
Dec-12
The rise in Productive Capacity was driven by an
improvement in the service and manufacturing
sectors, pushing it back into expansion above the 50
breakeven mark. There were also gains in the
construction sector.
Productive Capacity
Nov-12
After dropping in December close to the breakeven
mark, the Productive Capacity Indicator increased to
58.0 in January from 51.3 in December.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Due to rise in new orders, the company
needs to increase its production capacity.”
Containers and packaging company
Productive Capacity
Jan-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
54.0
61.7
64.0
58.1
61.3
51.3
58.0
-
67.4
70.3
65.1
65.2
57.5
64.3
19

20. 20
Spitzzeile Titel
w
Order Backlogs
continued their
long-term downward
decline in January,
falling to their lowest
level since April.
Order Backlogs in the manufacturing sector have
been in contraction for the past four months, and in
the construction and services sectors for three and
two months respectively.

21. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
35.6
Order Backlogs
Falls to Series Low
Order Backlogs continued their long-term downward
decline in January, falling to their lowest level since
the series started in April 2013.
The Order Backlogs Indicator fell from 41.7 in
December to 35.6 in January, a drop of 14.6% on the
month and pushing backlogs further into contraction.
Order Backlogs tend to fall when there is either
reduced demand for goods and services or the
productive capacity of the company is enough to meet
current demand with little delay in production.
Order Backlogs
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
The downturn in the economy seen in recent years
has increased the output gap leaving it with a greater
amount of spare capacity with many companies able
to quickly turnaround incoming orders.
Apr-13
0
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Order Backlogs in the manufacturing sector have
been in contraction for the past four months, and in
the construction and services sectors for three and
two months respectively.
The Future Expectations Indicator saw a much larger
decline, with the indicator falling 19.5% from 43.7 in
December to 35.2 in January.
Order Backlogs
Jan-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Current Conditions
-
47.0
52.9
42.9
45.3
41.7
35.6
Future Expectations
-
39.4
57.5
43.4
48.8
43.7
35.2
21

22. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
51.8
Employment
Second Consecutive Rise
Companies expected that, compared with a month
ago, they will have a greater need to take on new
employees over the next three months. The
Expectations Indicator increased by 2.3% to 53.4 in
January, up from 52.2 in the previous month.
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“We may raise the number of employees in
the coming months.”
Technology company
Employment
Jan-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Current Conditions
-
54.1
53.3
51.3
48.9
50.0
51.8
Future Expectations
-
52.0
53.4
51.1
49.5
52.2
53.4
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
40
Jul-13
Construction and service sector companies’ saw the
indicator move back into expansion in January, while
manufacturing sector companies’ hiring intentions
remained broadly stable.
56
Jun-13
The rise between December and January was
relatively small with the majority of respondents in the
survey reporting that the number of employees they
had was “just right”.
Employment
May-13
The Employment Indicator increased for the second
consecutive month in January to 51.8 from 50.0 in
December, having fallen into contraction in November
for the first time last year.
Apr-13
22

23. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
62.1
Inventories
Record High
The Inventory level of Finished Goods Indicator
accelerated by almost 17% from 53.1 in December to
62.1 in January to mark a new series high.
The Inventory Indicator for manufacturing increased
sharply, while that for construction also rose, with the
latter remaining in expansion territory for the second
consecutive month.
Inventories
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
25
Apr-13
Future Expectations for the next three months
increased to 59.5 in January, gaining 4.9 points from
December’s 54.6 outturn. Expectations for inventories
have risen after bottoming in June, and have remained
above the breakeven level since August.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Inventories
Jan-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Current Conditions
-
51.6
60.1
50.0
50.0
53.1
62.1
Future Expectations
-
52.9
53.7
50.7
53.3
54.6
59.5
23

24. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
69.8
Input Prices
Small Easing in Price Pressures
The depreciation in the rupee exchange rate seen in
2013 has led to increased costs for a number of
imported inputs. Around 30% of India’s energy
demand is met by petroleum and around 80% of the
crude oil it requires is imported.
Expectations for three months’ time accelerated to
69.9 in January from 66.4 in December, driven by a
rise in expectations among construction and service
companies.
The
expectations
indicator
for
manufacturing companies fell to the lowest since
August.
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
45
Jun-13
From December to January, the Input Prices Indicator
declined significantly for manufacturing companies,
as the percentage of companies who reported higher
input costs fell compared with the previous month.
The Input Price Indicator for services and construction
increased, following a decline in December.
Input Prices
May-13
The Input Prices indicator eased for the second
consecutive month, declining 2.8% from 71.8 in
December to 69.8 in January. In spite of the latest
decline it remains at an elevated level. Most companies
surveyed continued to complain that high inflation
was a serious problem and that rising input prices
were adding to their costs.
Apr-13
24
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“We hope that input prices will stabilise in
the coming months.”
Financial services company
Input Prices
Jan-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Current Conditions
-
Future Expectations
-
Dec-13
Jan-14
66.7
74.1
63.3
62.1
72.9
65.3
73.0
71.8
69.8
72.5
66.4
69.9

25. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
60.6
Prices Received
Rises Again
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
30
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Prices Received and Wholesale Price Inflation
80
10%
9%
70
8%
60
7%
50
6%
40
5%
Jan-14
Jul-13
Nov-13
4%
Sep-13
30
May-13
In the last monetary policy meeting in December,
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan kept
interest rates unchanged, saying that he expected
food prices to ease in the coming months.
70
Mar-13
Firms also expect to see a pick-up over the next three
months with the Future Expectations Indicator rising
to 60.9 in January from 56.0 in December.
Manufacturing and service sector companies expected
prices to rise further in the coming months, following
a decline last month while the indicator dropped
slightly for construction sector companies.
75
Dec-12
Prices Received have risen sharply over the past year
and this trend has been closely matched by the official
Wholesale Price Index data. After troughing in the
summer of 2013, wholesale price inflation has
trended upwards, although dipped slightly in
December to 6.2% in hand with the Prices Received
Indicator. The latest rise in Prices Received suggests
that inflation could remain elevated for the time being.
80
Nov-12
Construction and service sectors reported a rise in the
Prices Received Indicator, while the manufacturing
sector witnessed a fall, pushing the indicator to the
lowest since October.
Prices Received
Jan-13
The Prices Received Indicator, which measures how
much companies charge for their goods and services,
increased to 60.6 in January from 58.0 in December.
MNI Prices Received
Wholesale Price Inflation y/y % (RHS)*
*Source: Office of the Economic Advisor, India
Prices Received
Jan-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
55.4
56.6
61.8
54.9
60.8
58.0
60.6
-
57.0
67.0
57.3
63.8
56.0
60.9
25

26. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
68.2
Financial Position
Strong Start to the year
The Financial Position Indicator rose to 68.2 in
January, back close to the level seen in November,
following a decline to 65.2 in December.
Both service and construction sector companies
reported better financial conditions at the start of the
year compared with end of last year.
Expectations for three months’ time remained almost
flat but at a high level, with the indicator gaining just
0.2 points from 71.3 in December to 71.5 in January.
Financial Position
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
In spite of the economic downturn the BSE benchmark
Sensex hit a record high in December and has come
close to scaling this in recent days. Latest results from
Tata Consultancy Services, a major IT service
company in India, showed profits were 50% higher in
the quarter ending December compared with a year
earlier.
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Both construction and service sector companies’
expectations about their future financial position were
the same as compared with last month. Optimism
among manufacturing companies fell slightly on the
month, though remained at a high level.
Dec-12
45
Nov-12
26
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Financial condition of company is good due
to rise in sales.”
Electrical components manufacturing
company
Financial Position
Jan-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
62.6
-
68.1
72.3
58.6
69.9
65.2
68.2
78.0
83.3
71.1
74.2
71.3
71.5

27. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
60.5
Interest Rates Paid
Second Consecutive Decline
The latest fall was led by a sharp decline in the Interest
Rates Paid Indicator for manufacturing companies.
Construction and service sector companies also
showed a decline but of a lesser magnitude.
Expectations for Interest Rates paid in three months’
dropped significantly at the end of last year. The
Expectations Indicator was up slightly to 57.9 in
January from 56.8 in December.
75
70
65
60
55
50
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
45
Mar-13
More companies reported that they faced the same
level of interest rates rather than higher when
compared with the previous month. While in
December, 41% of companies surveyed reported
higher credit costs, in January this fell to just 27.5%.
In contrast, the percentage of companies who reported
interest rates were the same increased from 56.4% in
December to 66% in January.
Interest Rates Paid
Feb-13
The cost of credit faced by companies eased further in
January with the Interest Rates Paid Indicator
declining to 60.5 from 69.2 in December, the lowest
since October.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
7.75% in the last policy meet in December.
Manufacturing companies reported a significant drop
in their expectations for credit costs for the next three
months as most companies expect interest rates to
remain the same. The indicator for manufacturing fell
below the breakeven level, where it was last seen in
August. Construction and service sector companies
expected interest paid to rise in the coming months.
The Reserve Bank of India has raised its policy rate
twice since October 2013 in order to combat
stubbornly high inflation. It left rates unchanged at
Interest Rates Paid
Jan-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Current Conditions
-
64.8
68.4
Future Expectations
-
70.2
65.2
60.3
73.2
69.2
60.5
65.9
69.6
56.8
57.9
27

28. 28
Spitzzeile Titel
w
The cost of credit
faced by companies
eased further.
The Interest Rates Paid Indicator fell to 60.5 in
January from 69.2 in December.

29. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
More Companies say Exchange
Rate is Beneficial
The gain in the Effect of the Rupee Exchange Indicator
in January more than compensated for the decline in
the previous month, although it remained below the
breakeven 50 level indicating that the current level of
the exchange rate is hurting business.
44.3
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
The trend of the Effect of the Rupee Exchange
Indicator has closely matched the path of the exchange
rate. The indicator plunged into contraction in July
and has subsequently recovered in line with the
rupee.
Expectations for three months’ time remained broadly
stable compared with December. The Future
Expectations Indicator stood at 43.6 in January
compared with 43.2 in December.
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
The depreciation in the rupee over the summer of
2013 hit companies hard by immediately pushing up
the costs of their inputs – in particular energy costs
due to higher crude oil prices.
Dec-12
20
Nov-12
The Effect of the Rupee Exchange Rate Indicator
increased to 44.3 in January from 39.4 in December,
a rise of 12.4% on the month. More companies
reported that the exchange rate was helping their
business, although the majority said it did not affect
them.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Exchange Rate
90
0.019
80
0.018
70
60
0.017
50
40
0.016
30
20
0.015
10
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
May-13
0.014
Mar-13
0
MNI Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
US Dollar versus Indian Rupee
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Jan-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
68.5
-
39.6
31.6
30.9
43.4
39.4
44.3
43.8
32.7
30.1
43.5
43.2
43.6
29

30. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
54.4
Supplier Delivery Times
Remains Broadly Stable
Supplier Delivery Times were broadly stable in
January, remaining a little above the three month
average of 53.8. The indicator increased slightly from
54.2 in December to 54.4 in January.
Companies expected to see a shortening in supplier
delivery times over the next three months, with the
indicator falling to 51.7 in January from 54.2 in
December, the lowest since August. The decline was
led by manufacturing and service sector companies,
with the latter falling to the breakeven level of 50.
Supplier Delivery Times
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Manufacturing companies expected supplier delivery
times to shorten to the lowest since November, while
construction companies expected longer delivery
times in the next three months.
May-13
30
Apr-13
30
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Supplier Delivery Times
Jan-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Current Conditions
-
52.5
58.4
52.7
52.9
54.2
54.4
Future Expectations
-
49.6
56.1
54.6
55.0
54.2
51.7

31. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Availability of Credit
Access to Credit Improves
Expectations for three months’ time fell by 8% to 54.1
in January compared with 58.8 at the end of last
year. Construction companies reported a large fall in
their expectations, while service and manufacturing
sector companies posted smaller declines.
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
30
Feb-13
The Availability of Credit Indicator increased to 56.8
in January from 52.6 in December. Both manufacturing
and service sector firms showed an improvement in
credit availability, while construction companies
reported that credit conditions worsened in January to
the lowest since July 2013.
70
Dec-12
The indicator measuring the Availability of Credit has
trended upwards since April and reached a series
high in September.
Availability of Credit
Nov-12
Firms’ access to credit improved to a four month high
in January, although companies don’t expect the
better conditions to continue over the coming months.
56.8
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
RBI Domestic Credit
8,000
100%
7,000
80%
6,000
5,000
60%
4,000
40%
3,000
2,000
20%
1,000
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
May-12
0%
Jan-12
0
RBI Domestic Credit y/y % (RHS)
RBI Domestic Credit (INR B)
Source: Reserve Bank of India
Availability of Credit
Jan-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
41.5
56.3
-
59.0
61.9
51.3
55.7
52.6
56.8
65.3
56.6
59.2
58.8
54.1
31

32. 32
Spitzzeile Titel
What the Panel Said
A selection of comments from the panel of
businesses surveyed over the past month.

33. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
“Due to rise in new orders, the company needs to
increase its production capacity.” Containers and
packaging company
“Our company has increased the prices of its products
because costs of raw material have been increased by
our suppliers.” Industrial Machinery company
“Market is too competitive for us to change prices of
our products.” Financial Services company
“The weak rupee exchange rate helps a lot due to NRI
customers and investors.” Financial services company
“There is 7.5% hike in salaries of employees due to
inflation.” Financial services company
“We will be increasing 10% of employees in next three
months.” Software company
“Rupee exchange rate is definitely hurting us because we
are net importers.” Automobile manufacturing company
“Our company expects an increase in new orders in
the next quarter. We may also raise the price of our
product if raw material prices go up.” Chemicals
Manufacturing company
“Availability of credit fund is in surplus, but no one is
ready to use due to uncertain business conditions.”
Consumer Services company
“Business conditions are better compared with a
month ago because of increased new orders.”
Consumer Goods company
“1-2% price of our services have been raised as compared
with last month, it shall remain the same until the quarter
end.” Real Estate Holding & Development company
“Business conditions are good because of holiday and
tourist season.” Entertainment Services company
“We expect good business conditions in next three
months.” Telecommunications company
“The prices charged for final products have increased
a little bit.” Marina Transportation company
“Order backlog is at lower level.” Investment Services
company
“US and European market is improving, so we expect
good business conditions in the next quarter.”
Consumer Services company
“We manufacture winter wear so business condition in
coming months will be good.” Clothing company
“We may raise the number of employees in coming
months.” Technology company
“Prices of raw materials have increased so our
company has increased the price of the end product.”
Industrial Machinery company
“We hope that input prices will stabilise in the coming
months.” Financial services company
“There is no demand within the domestic market, so
business condition is not good.” Forestry company
“This is a peak season so business condition is better
compared with last month.” Hotels company
“Financial condition of company is good due to rise in
sales.” Electrical components manufacturing company
33

34. 34
Spitzzeile Titel
Data Tables
35
Historical Summary
36
Historical Records
37 Historical Records - Quarterly

35. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Historical Summary
2013
2014
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
60.6
53.6
56.1
47.5
50.5
60.6
51.8
64.0
59.4
59.8
64.6
57.8
63.4
53.8
55.4
49.7
52.0
60.6
67.6
75.5
77.1
68.8
69.5
71.1
72.0
55.6
53.8
41.0
45.6
54.8
56.9
59.9
67.3
57.5
65.3
59.7
64.4
49.7
55.0
41.3
51.6
59.4
76.3
71.8
76.8
64.8
68.8
66.2
71.6
55.8
53.4
39.7
44.9
58.7
61.9
64.0
69.1
59.5
62.9
60.3
63.6
53.2
54.9
40.4
46.4
58.4
76.8
75.0
78.5
69.5
68.5
65.4
65.5
Current Conditions
53.7
49.5
41.3
43.7
52.9
57.7
55.0
63.2
55.6
58.8
60.5
61.4
Future Expectations
56.0
54.1
45.2
50.9
62.6
68.9
62.6
75.5
57.7
60.8
67.9
62.9
56.5
52.3
41.0
45.6
50.6
55.4
61.7
64.0
58.1
61.3
51.3
58.0
56.1
54.8
40.7
50.9
56.7
68.8
67.4
70.3
65.1
65.2
57.5
64.3
57.8
59.3
48.5
49.4
47.0
52.9
42.9
45.3
41.7
35.6
59.6
32.8
43.6
39.4
57.5
43.4
48.8
43.7
35.2
51.8
52.3
51.3
54.1
53.3
51.3
48.9
50.0
51.8
51.8
52.3
53.6
52.0
53.4
51.1
49.5
52.2
53.4
MNI India Business
Indicator
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Production
Current Conditions
59.4
Future Expectations
New Orders
Current Conditions
50.8
Future Expectations
Export Orders
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions
54.0
Future Expectations
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Employment
Current Conditions
53.2
Future Expectations
Inventories
Current Conditions
59.9
47.8
48.9
55.9
51.6
60.1
50.0
50.0
53.1
62.1
48.6
31.0
35.5
52.9
53.7
50.7
53.3
54.6
59.5
64.4
78.6
79.6
66.7
74.1
63.3
73.0
71.8
69.8
66.9
Future Expectations
74.9
74.0
62.1
72.9
65.3
72.5
66.4
69.9
Input Prices
Current Conditions
67.9
Future Expectations
Prices Received
Current Conditions
55.4
59.8
53.1
42.2
41.5
50.8
67.1
56.6
61.8
54.9
60.8
58.0
60.6
55.8
57.8
45.1
47.3
49.2
73.7
57.0
67.0
57.3
63.8
56.0
60.9
56.3
55.1
53.4
56.1
63.0
57.6
68.1
72.3
58.6
69.9
65.2
68.2
51.6
56.2
56.0
53.5
63.1
73.3
78.0
83.3
71.1
74.2
71.3
71.5
69.2
65.5
52.9
52.8
67.2
68.6
64.8
68.4
60.3
73.2
69.2
60.5
63.7
Future Expectations
52.9
50.0
71.7
65.9
70.2
65.2
65.9
69.6
56.8
57.9
Financial Position
Current Conditions
62.6
Future Expectations
Interest Rates Paid
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Effect of Rupee
Exchange Rate
Current Conditions
68.5
77.8
69.1
47.8
53.3
66.6
45.1
39.6
31.6
30.9
43.4
39.4
44.3
75.5
66.6
54.2
49.4
73.1
55.8
43.8
32.7
30.1
43.5
43.2
43.6
51.9
53.1
59.6
57.1
52.5
58.4
52.7
52.9
54.2
54.4
59.0
Future Expectations
39.5
50.9
49.6
56.1
54.6
55.0
54.2
51.7
Supplier Delivery Time
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Availability of Credit
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
41.5
57.1
53.6
41.1
44.8
51.3
57.1
56.3
61.9
51.3
55.7
52.6
56.8
57.6
53.8
40.9
47.9
52.2
60.9
59.0
65.3
56.6
59.2
58.8
54.1
35

36. 36
MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Historical Records
2012-2013
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Median
Current Conditions
47.5
64.6
58.0
59.4
Future Expectations
49.7
77.1
64.4
68.2
Production
82.3
144.1
120.5
123.6
Current Conditions
41.0
67.3
57.7
58.1
Future Expectations
41.3
76.8
62.8
65.5
New Orders
80.1
147.6
118.5
124.2
Current Conditions
39.7
69.1
55.8
58.7
Future Expectations
40.4
78.5
62.7
65.5
Export Orders
86.5
138.7
114.9
117.0
Current Conditions
41.3
63.2
54.4
55.3
Future Expectations
45.2
75.5
60.4
61.7
Productive Capacity
81.7
134.3
114.0
116.3
MNI India Business Indicator
Current Conditions
41.0
64.0
54.2
55.4
Future Expectations
40.7
70.3
59.8
60.9
Order Backlogs
68.4
118.9
92.9
91.4
Current Conditions
35.6
59.3
48.0
47.8
Future Expectations
32.8
59.6
44.9
43.6
Employment
98.4
107.7
103.9
104.0
Current Conditions
48.9
54.1
51.8
51.8
Future Expectations
49.5
53.6
52.1
52.2
Inventories
78.8
121.6
102.8
105.3
Current Conditions
47.8
62.1
53.9
52.4
Future Expectations
31.0
59.5
48.9
52.9
Input Prices
125.4
154.5
140.4
140.7
Current Conditions
63.3
79.6
70.9
70.8
Future Expectations
62.1
74.9
69.4
69.9
Prices Received
86.6
140.8
112.4
112.6
Current Conditions
41.5
67.1
54.8
55.4
Future Expectations
45.1
73.7
57.6
57.2
Financial Position
105.0
155.6
128.3
131.8
Current Conditions
53.4
72.3
61.4
60.6
Future Expectations
51.6
83.3
66.9
71.2
Interest Rates Paid
102.8
144.9
127.1
131.6
Current Conditions
52.8
73.2
64.4
66.4
Future Expectations
50.0
71.7
62.7
65.2
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
61.0
153.3
102.5
94.4
Current Conditions
30.9
77.8
51.5
47.8
Future Expectations
30.1
75.5
51.0
46.6
Supplier Delivery Time
91.4
118.6
107.0
107.9
Current Conditions
51.9
59.6
54.7
53.7
Future Expectations
39.5
59.0
52.3
54.2
Availability of Credit
82.0
127.2
107.8
109.9
Current Conditions
41.1
61.9
52.3
52.8
Future Expectations
40.9
65.3
55.5
57.1

37. MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Historical Records - Quarterly
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Quarterly Change
Quarterly % Change
Current Conditions
52.9
58.4
60.7
2.3
3.9%
Future Expectations
54.1
73.4
69.8
-3.6
-4.9%
Current Conditions
47.1
61.4
60.8
-0.6
-1.0%
Future Expectations
50.8
75.0
66.6
-8.4
-11.2%
Current Conditions
47.8
65.0
60.9
-4.1
-6.3%
Future Expectations
48.4
76.8
67.8
-9.0
-11.7%
Current Conditions
46.0
58.6
58.3
-0.3
-0.5%
Future Expectations
52.9
69.0
62.1
-6.9
-10.0%
Current Conditions
45.7
60.4
56.9
-3.5
-5.8%
Future Expectations
49.4
68.8
62.6
-6.2
-9.0%
55.2
49.8
43.3
-6.5
-13.1%
-
46.8
45.3
-1.5
-3.2%
52.4
52.9
50.1
-2.8
-5.3%
-
53.0
50.9
-2.1
-4.0%
52.2
55.9
51.0
-4.9
-8.8%
-
47.4
52.9
5.5
11.6%
70.3
73.5
69.4
-4.1
-5.6%
-
69.7
68.1
-1.6
-2.3%
Current Conditions
44.8
61.8
57.9
-3.9
-6.3%
Future Expectations
47.2
65.9
59.0
-6.9
-10.5%
Current Conditions
57.5
66.0
64.6
-1.4
-2.1%
Future Expectations
57.5
78.2
72.2
-6.0
-7.7%
Current Conditions
57.6
67.3
67.6
0.3
0.4%
Future Expectations
58.2
67.1
64.1
-3.0
-4.5%
Current Conditions
55.9
38.8
37.9
-0.9
-2.3%
Future Expectations
58.9
44.1
38.9
-5.2
-11.8%
54.9
56.0
53.3
-2.7
-4.8%
-
52.2
54.6
2.4
4.6%
Current Conditions
45.7
58.4
53.2
-5.2
-8.9%
Future Expectations
47.0
61.7
58.2
-3.5
-5.7%
MNI India Business Indicator
Production
New Orders
Export Orders
Productive Capacity
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Employment
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Inventories
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Input Prices
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Prices Received
Financial Position
Interest Rates Paid
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Supplier Delivery Time
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Availability of Credit
37

38. 38
MNI India Business Report - January 2014
Methodology
MNI India Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of
Indian business executives at companies listed on
BSE (formerly known as the Bombay Stock Exchange).
Companies are a mix of manufacturing, service,
construction and agricultural firms.
Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a
particular business activity has increased, decreased
or remained the same compared with the previous
month as well as their expectations for three months
ahead, e.g. Is Production Higher/Same/Lower
compared with a month ago?
A diffusion indicator is then calculated by adding the
percentage share of positive responses to half the
percentage of those respondents reporting no change.
An indicator reading above 50 shows expansion,
below 50 indicates contraction and a result of 50
means no change.
Data is collected via telephone interviews. Around
200 companies are surveyed each month.

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Our indicators allow investors, economists, analysts, and companies to identify
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Insight and data for better decisions

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