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MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 49.2 in May
from 55.6 in April
Business Sentiment Falls Below 50 Amid Ukraine Crisis
Insight and data for better decisions
Russian business sentiment contracted sharply in
May to the lowest level since December 2013, as
businesses felt the heat of the standoff with the west
over Russia’s military intervention in Crimea.
The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell to 49.2 in
May from 55.6 in April, to stand 11.5% below the
level seen in May 2013. The decline in the indicator
below the 50 expansion/contraction level suggests a
considerable dent has been made in Russian business
confidence from what have only been limited
sanctions imposed by the US and the EU.
New Orders and Production fell further, although
Export Orders managed to recover somewhat but still
remained in contraction. Stock levels continued to
contract but at a slower pace than in April.
While companies were still optimistic about their
future financial position, the indicator measuring the
financial health of our survey firms has trended down
over three months and it hit a series low in May.
Commenting on the latest survey, Philip Uglow, Chief
Economist of MNI Indicators said, “We had already
seen some impact on the companies in our panel
from the fallout in Ukraine, but this month’s fall into
contraction shows it even more clearly.”
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group.
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
MNI Russia Business Indicator
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Russia’s agreement to supply natural gas to China
helps to diversify its trading partners. But while
President Putin enjoyed his moment in the spotlight
with President Xi of China, the vast majority of
Russia’s trade lies with Europe and he’d be wise not
to rattle their cage too much more.”
40
45
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55
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Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
MNI Indicators - 27 May 2014 2
Overview
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Business
Indicator
Current Conditions 52.5 55.6 49.2 - Dec-13 52.4 -6.4 -11.5%
Future Expectations 53.3 54.3 52.5 - Dec-13 53.4 -1.8 -3.3%
Production
Current Conditions 52.5 57.3 55.3 - Mar-14 55.0 -2.0 -3.5%
Future Expectations 50.8 52.0 51.7 - Mar-14 51.5 -0.3 -0.6%
New Orders
Current Conditions 57.5 58.8 54.8 - Dec-13 57.0 -4.0 -6.8%
Future Expectations 51.8 52.2 52.7 Sep-13 - 52.2 0.5 1.0%
Export Orders
Current Conditions 48.3 44.4 46.9 Mar-14 - 46.5 2.5 5.6%
Future Expectations 43.0 43.5 43.0 - Dec-13 43.2 -0.5 -1.1%
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions 50.3 50.0 51.5 Oct-13 - 50.6 1.5 3.0%
Future Expectations 49.7 49.7 50.3 Aug-13 - 49.9 0.6 1.2%
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions 47.4 39.5 42.3 Mar-14 - 43.1 2.8 7.1%
Future Expectations 43.0 42.5 43.3 Feb-14 - 42.9 0.8 1.9%
Employment
Current Conditions 50.0 50.8 52.8 Jun-13 - 51.2 2.0 3.9%
Future Expectations 50.5 50.0 50.5 Mar-14 - 50.3 0.5 1.0%
Inventories
Current Conditions 40.4 32.2 39.2 Mar-14 - 37.3 7.0 21.7%
Future Expectations 40.2 41.2 43.4 Feb-14 - 41.6 2.2 5.3%
Input Prices
Current Conditions 52.1 51.8 51.0 - Aug-13 51.6 -0.8 -1.5%
Future Expectations 52.1 50.3 50.0 - series low 50.8 -0.3 -0.6%
Prices Received
Current Conditions 53.1 50.5 50.0 - Mar-13 51.2 -0.5 -1.0%
Future Expectations 51.3 51.3 51.0 - Feb-14 51.2 -0.3 -0.6%
Financial Position
Current Conditions 60.1 59.8 56.3 - Aug-13 58.7 -3.5 -5.9%
Future Expectations 55.6 54.4 53.6 - series low 54.5 -0.8 -1.5%
Interest Rates Paid
Current Conditions 50.0 49.7 49.7 Apr-14 - 49.8 0.0 0.0%
Future Expectations 49.4 49.4 49.7 Feb-14 - 49.5 0.3 0.6%
Effect of Rouble Exchange
Rate
Current Conditions 53.7 50.9 53.3 Mar-14 - 52.6 2.4 4.7%
Future Expectations 50.0 50.0 50.0 Apr-14 - 50.0 0.0 0.0%
Supplier Delivery Times
Current Conditions 50.0 49.5 51.8 series high - 50.4 2.3 4.6%
Future Expectations 49.7 49.7 49.7 Apr-14 - 49.7 0.0 0.0%
Availability of Credit
Current Conditions 53.0 53.9 59.9 series high - 55.6 6.0 11.1%
Future Expectations 50.0 51.5 50.6 - Mar-14 50.7 -0.9 -1.7%

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Mni russia business_overview_2014-05

  • 1. For more information, please contact: info@mni-indicators.com +44 (0)20 7862 7444 MNI Russia Business Indicator Falls to 49.2 in May from 55.6 in April Business Sentiment Falls Below 50 Amid Ukraine Crisis Insight and data for better decisions Russian business sentiment contracted sharply in May to the lowest level since December 2013, as businesses felt the heat of the standoff with the west over Russia’s military intervention in Crimea. The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell to 49.2 in May from 55.6 in April, to stand 11.5% below the level seen in May 2013. The decline in the indicator below the 50 expansion/contraction level suggests a considerable dent has been made in Russian business confidence from what have only been limited sanctions imposed by the US and the EU. New Orders and Production fell further, although Export Orders managed to recover somewhat but still remained in contraction. Stock levels continued to contract but at a slower pace than in April. While companies were still optimistic about their future financial position, the indicator measuring the financial health of our survey firms has trended down over three months and it hit a series low in May. Commenting on the latest survey, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, “We had already seen some impact on the companies in our panel from the fallout in Ukraine, but this month’s fall into contraction shows it even more clearly.” Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. MNI Russia Business Indicator Current Conditions Future Expectations “Russia’s agreement to supply natural gas to China helps to diversify its trading partners. But while President Putin enjoyed his moment in the spotlight with President Xi of China, the vast majority of Russia’s trade lies with Europe and he’d be wise not to rattle their cage too much more.” 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
  • 2. MNI Indicators - 27 May 2014 2 Overview Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change MNI Russia Business Indicator Current Conditions 52.5 55.6 49.2 - Dec-13 52.4 -6.4 -11.5% Future Expectations 53.3 54.3 52.5 - Dec-13 53.4 -1.8 -3.3% Production Current Conditions 52.5 57.3 55.3 - Mar-14 55.0 -2.0 -3.5% Future Expectations 50.8 52.0 51.7 - Mar-14 51.5 -0.3 -0.6% New Orders Current Conditions 57.5 58.8 54.8 - Dec-13 57.0 -4.0 -6.8% Future Expectations 51.8 52.2 52.7 Sep-13 - 52.2 0.5 1.0% Export Orders Current Conditions 48.3 44.4 46.9 Mar-14 - 46.5 2.5 5.6% Future Expectations 43.0 43.5 43.0 - Dec-13 43.2 -0.5 -1.1% Productive Capacity Current Conditions 50.3 50.0 51.5 Oct-13 - 50.6 1.5 3.0% Future Expectations 49.7 49.7 50.3 Aug-13 - 49.9 0.6 1.2% Order Backlogs Current Conditions 47.4 39.5 42.3 Mar-14 - 43.1 2.8 7.1% Future Expectations 43.0 42.5 43.3 Feb-14 - 42.9 0.8 1.9% Employment Current Conditions 50.0 50.8 52.8 Jun-13 - 51.2 2.0 3.9% Future Expectations 50.5 50.0 50.5 Mar-14 - 50.3 0.5 1.0% Inventories Current Conditions 40.4 32.2 39.2 Mar-14 - 37.3 7.0 21.7% Future Expectations 40.2 41.2 43.4 Feb-14 - 41.6 2.2 5.3% Input Prices Current Conditions 52.1 51.8 51.0 - Aug-13 51.6 -0.8 -1.5% Future Expectations 52.1 50.3 50.0 - series low 50.8 -0.3 -0.6% Prices Received Current Conditions 53.1 50.5 50.0 - Mar-13 51.2 -0.5 -1.0% Future Expectations 51.3 51.3 51.0 - Feb-14 51.2 -0.3 -0.6% Financial Position Current Conditions 60.1 59.8 56.3 - Aug-13 58.7 -3.5 -5.9% Future Expectations 55.6 54.4 53.6 - series low 54.5 -0.8 -1.5% Interest Rates Paid Current Conditions 50.0 49.7 49.7 Apr-14 - 49.8 0.0 0.0% Future Expectations 49.4 49.4 49.7 Feb-14 - 49.5 0.3 0.6% Effect of Rouble Exchange Rate Current Conditions 53.7 50.9 53.3 Mar-14 - 52.6 2.4 4.7% Future Expectations 50.0 50.0 50.0 Apr-14 - 50.0 0.0 0.0% Supplier Delivery Times Current Conditions 50.0 49.5 51.8 series high - 50.4 2.3 4.6% Future Expectations 49.7 49.7 49.7 Apr-14 - 49.7 0.0 0.0% Availability of Credit Current Conditions 53.0 53.9 59.9 series high - 55.6 6.0 11.1% Future Expectations 50.0 51.5 50.6 - Mar-14 50.7 -0.9 -1.7%