A white paper on how to overcome the challenges of project risk exposure reporting. Introducing a new, more meaningful risk metric, Risk Range Certainty (RRC).
How Traditional Risk Reporting Has Let Us DownAcumen
This white paper discusses risk reporting techniques and ways of interpreting risk analysis results that actually enable the project team to make pro-active changes in reducing their risk exposure.
Risk management is essential for any significant project. Certain information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes are often unknown until the project is underway.
Embedding risk management as an integral part of the project framework is an essential and fundamental part of any project, programme or portfolio as a way of keeping costs down, benefits high, and increasing the probability of successful delivery.
How Traditional Risk Reporting Has Let Us DownAcumen
This white paper discusses risk reporting techniques and ways of interpreting risk analysis results that actually enable the project team to make pro-active changes in reducing their risk exposure.
Risk management is essential for any significant project. Certain information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes are often unknown until the project is underway.
Embedding risk management as an integral part of the project framework is an essential and fundamental part of any project, programme or portfolio as a way of keeping costs down, benefits high, and increasing the probability of successful delivery.
Probabilistic Cost, Schedule, and Risk managementGlen Alleman
All variables on projects are random variables. Cost, Schedule, and Technical performance interact with each other is statistical ways to produce probabilistic outcomes for their values.
Managing a project to a successful outcomes requires not only understanding the underlying statistics, but forecasting outcomes from these interactions in enough time to take corrective actions.
Risk analysis for project decision-making
Presented by Keith Gray
Monday 10th October 2016
APM North West branch and Risk SIG conference
Alderley Park, Macclesfield
Using Risk Analysis and Simulation in Project ManagementMike Tulkoff
An overview of risk management techniques that can be incorporated into project plans and schedules. Learn how to use tools such as @RISK for Excel and Microsoft project to run Monte Carlo simulations on project plans. Model uncertain inputs under several scenarios to view the effect on project outputs like duration, dates, and cost.
When contractually required, DOD acquisition contractors are obligated to submit IPMR's electronically IAW DID 81861. This data is necessary but not sufficient for successfully managing a program. This presentation is the overview of the Essential Views needed for that success
Learn about NetRisk™, a supplementary module for NetPoint® that allows you to perform qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. Plan, schedule, and perform risk analysis all in one seamless and intuitive application.
Liberty university busi 313 quiz 3 complete solutions correct answers slideshareSong Love
Liberty University BUSI 313 quiz 3 complete solutions correct answers slideshare
Four different versions
https://www.coursemerit.com/solution-details/20164/Liberty-University-BUSI-313-quiz-3-complete-solutions-correct-answers-A-work
Increasing the Probability of Project SuccessGlen Alleman
Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Information about key cost, performance and schedule attributes are often uncertain or unknown until late in the program.
Risk issues that can be identified early in the program, which may potentially impact the program, termed Known Unknowns, can be alleviated with good risk management. -- Effective Risk Management 2nd Edition, Page 1, Edmund Conrow, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2003
The role of Risk Assessment and Risk Management is to continuously Identify, Analyze, Plan, Track, Control, and Communicate the risks associated with a project.
The Webster’s definition of risk is the possibility of suffering a loss. Risk in itself is not bad. Risk is essential to progress and failure is often a key part of learning. Managing risk is a key part of success.
This document describes the foundations for conducting a risk assessment of a large-scale system development project. Such a project will likely include the procurement of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) products as well as their integration with legacy systems.
Increasing the Probability of Success with Continuous Risk ManagementGlen Alleman
Cost and schedule growth is created when unrealistic technical performance expectations, unrealistic cost and schedule estimates, unanticipated technical issues, and poorly performed and ineffective risk management contribute to program technical and programmatic shortfalls
The APM Risk SIG presented a Quantitative Risk Analysis event on 11th February 2016 that provided perspectives across the project stakeholder spectrum, from client decision-makers to risk analysts and consultants. Dr David Hillson, The Risk Doctor, spoke about assessing overall project risk with quantitative risk analysis.
The Art and Science Behind Successful Risk WorkshopsAcumen
This paper discusses how a well-structured balance of risk process combined with sound workshop facilitation can provide more value to a project’s bottom line than most typically ever realize. Imagine a silver bullet that enables you to objectively determine accurate project costs; contingency; strategic insight into which projects should be considered portfolio inclusion; and how realistic a project plan is. Sound too good to be true? Read on…
Adopting the Quadratic Mean Process to Quantify the Qualitative Risk AnalysisRicardo Viana Vargas
The objective of this paper is to propose a mathematical process to turn the results of a qualitative risk analysis into numeric indicators to support better decisions regarding risk response strategies.
Using a five-level scale for probability and a set of scales to measure different aspects of the impact and time horizon, a simple mathematical process is developed using the quadratic mean (also known as root mean square) to calculate the numerical exposition of the risk and consequently, the numerical exposition of the project risks.
This paper also supports the reduction of intuitive thinking when evaluating risks, often subject to illusions, which can cause perception errors. These predictable mental errors, such as overconfidence, confirmation traps, optimism bias, zero-risk bias, sunk-cost effect, and others often lead to the underestimation of costs and effort, poor resource planning, and other low-quality decisions (VIRINE, 2010).
Probabilistic Cost, Schedule, and Risk managementGlen Alleman
All variables on projects are random variables. Cost, Schedule, and Technical performance interact with each other is statistical ways to produce probabilistic outcomes for their values.
Managing a project to a successful outcomes requires not only understanding the underlying statistics, but forecasting outcomes from these interactions in enough time to take corrective actions.
Risk analysis for project decision-making
Presented by Keith Gray
Monday 10th October 2016
APM North West branch and Risk SIG conference
Alderley Park, Macclesfield
Using Risk Analysis and Simulation in Project ManagementMike Tulkoff
An overview of risk management techniques that can be incorporated into project plans and schedules. Learn how to use tools such as @RISK for Excel and Microsoft project to run Monte Carlo simulations on project plans. Model uncertain inputs under several scenarios to view the effect on project outputs like duration, dates, and cost.
When contractually required, DOD acquisition contractors are obligated to submit IPMR's electronically IAW DID 81861. This data is necessary but not sufficient for successfully managing a program. This presentation is the overview of the Essential Views needed for that success
Learn about NetRisk™, a supplementary module for NetPoint® that allows you to perform qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. Plan, schedule, and perform risk analysis all in one seamless and intuitive application.
Liberty university busi 313 quiz 3 complete solutions correct answers slideshareSong Love
Liberty University BUSI 313 quiz 3 complete solutions correct answers slideshare
Four different versions
https://www.coursemerit.com/solution-details/20164/Liberty-University-BUSI-313-quiz-3-complete-solutions-correct-answers-A-work
Increasing the Probability of Project SuccessGlen Alleman
Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Information about key cost, performance and schedule attributes are often uncertain or unknown until late in the program.
Risk issues that can be identified early in the program, which may potentially impact the program, termed Known Unknowns, can be alleviated with good risk management. -- Effective Risk Management 2nd Edition, Page 1, Edmund Conrow, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2003
The role of Risk Assessment and Risk Management is to continuously Identify, Analyze, Plan, Track, Control, and Communicate the risks associated with a project.
The Webster’s definition of risk is the possibility of suffering a loss. Risk in itself is not bad. Risk is essential to progress and failure is often a key part of learning. Managing risk is a key part of success.
This document describes the foundations for conducting a risk assessment of a large-scale system development project. Such a project will likely include the procurement of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) products as well as their integration with legacy systems.
Increasing the Probability of Success with Continuous Risk ManagementGlen Alleman
Cost and schedule growth is created when unrealistic technical performance expectations, unrealistic cost and schedule estimates, unanticipated technical issues, and poorly performed and ineffective risk management contribute to program technical and programmatic shortfalls
The APM Risk SIG presented a Quantitative Risk Analysis event on 11th February 2016 that provided perspectives across the project stakeholder spectrum, from client decision-makers to risk analysts and consultants. Dr David Hillson, The Risk Doctor, spoke about assessing overall project risk with quantitative risk analysis.
The Art and Science Behind Successful Risk WorkshopsAcumen
This paper discusses how a well-structured balance of risk process combined with sound workshop facilitation can provide more value to a project’s bottom line than most typically ever realize. Imagine a silver bullet that enables you to objectively determine accurate project costs; contingency; strategic insight into which projects should be considered portfolio inclusion; and how realistic a project plan is. Sound too good to be true? Read on…
Adopting the Quadratic Mean Process to Quantify the Qualitative Risk AnalysisRicardo Viana Vargas
The objective of this paper is to propose a mathematical process to turn the results of a qualitative risk analysis into numeric indicators to support better decisions regarding risk response strategies.
Using a five-level scale for probability and a set of scales to measure different aspects of the impact and time horizon, a simple mathematical process is developed using the quadratic mean (also known as root mean square) to calculate the numerical exposition of the risk and consequently, the numerical exposition of the project risks.
This paper also supports the reduction of intuitive thinking when evaluating risks, often subject to illusions, which can cause perception errors. These predictable mental errors, such as overconfidence, confirmation traps, optimism bias, zero-risk bias, sunk-cost effect, and others often lead to the underestimation of costs and effort, poor resource planning, and other low-quality decisions (VIRINE, 2010).
Risk based cost estimating for water infrastructure projectsAdvisian
Advisian studied the performance of risk-based cost estimating based on data obtained from 23 water infrastructure projects delivered by several water authorities in NSW over the period 2002 - 2012
Risk Management is essential for the success of any significant project. Information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes is often unknown until the project is underway.
This presentation talks about how risks in a project are analyzed and quantified. The presentation also discusses benefits of quantification of risks and the various tools at our disposal to manage risks effectively through quantification.
Event and Non-Event Risk - PMP/CAPM from PMIMudassir Iqbal
https://www.mudassiriqbal.net/project-management-terms-and-concepts
There are many concepts and definitions which require special attention by all PMP Aspirants as the terminologies are largely used interchangeably in the real world.
Risk and Procurement ManagementDr Paul BaguleyClass Slides.docxlillie234567
Risk and Procurement Management
Dr Paul Baguley
Class Slides
Contents
Definition of Risk
Context of Projects
Risk Management Process
Risk Id
Risk Assessment
Risk Evaluation
Cost Risk
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Management Reserve and Contingency
Risk Management by Procurement
Examples of Contracts to Manage Risk
Learning Objectives
Define Project Risk and identify stages of project risk management
Understand Risk Response Strategy Selection process using risk matrix
Identify characteristics of procurement routes and map risk allocation amongst project stakeholders
Appreciate a more risk informed procurement route selection
What makes project management a risky business
Organisations take risks to compete through projects making projects risky
Indeed risk appetite is the term used to describe the amount of risk an organisation is willing to take
And risk tolerance is the amount of risk an organisation can absorb
Risk is an important subject in APM BoK7 and PMBoK Guide (Chapter 11)
Institute of risk management; the Orange Book from the UK Gov
Communication between stakeholders in the project, suppliers and customer
VUCA (Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity) environment
Risks in Projects
https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/top-50-projects-sydney-opera-house-11757
Lack of process and
Large budget over run
Safety regulations
O Ring
Safety disaster
Case: impact of culture on risk
The Nimrod Accident
Case: the conspiracy of optimism
Optimism bias is a known phenomenon which has been described as a psychological factor in estimators. In the defence industry it is recognised there is political pressure for projects to deliver more and cost less.
Activity: What projects do you know failed?
What projects do you know from your own experience which failed in some way and how did they fail? For example “Potters Bar safety disaster”
Definition of Risk and Uncertainty
Before ISO 31000 a working definition of risk was an event that may or may not happen
Uncertainty is variation in something that has happened
For example a machine breakdown may or may not happen
Schedule delay is variation in the delay schedule in terms of time
Risk is defined as an uncertain event or set of circumstances, that should it occur, will have an effect on achievement of one or more objectives, by APM Body of Knowledge 2012
ISO 31000 (2018) definition of risk
ISO 31000 defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on project objectives
Note 1 to entry: an effect is a deviation from the expected. It can be positive, negative or both, and can address, create or result in opportunities and threats
Note 2 to entry: Objectives can have different aspects and categories, and can be applied at different levels
Note 3 to entry: Risk is usually expressed in terms of risk sources, potential events, their consequences and their likelihood
Project objectives are influenced by the iron triangle and trade-off space between cost, quality and time
This means that cost ris.
As per PMBOK - "The whole point of undertaking a project is to achieve or establish something new, to venture, to take chances, to risk. Risk may have positive effects or negative effects on the project “Schedule” and/or “Cost”. Positive risks are Opportunities and negative risks are losses or threats; remember both risks are uncertain “percentage of occurrence less than 80%”. Risk Management purpose is to manage (Plan and implement) these uncertainties.
Cost Risk Analysis (CRA) by Pedram Daneshmand 19-Jan-2011Pedram Danesh-Mand
As a quantitative risk analysis tool, Cost Risk Analysis enables stakeholders to identify and quantify the project risks and opportunities and, through comparative analysis of possible scenarios, to develop project programmes and budgets with a more level of confidence.
Building a risk tolerant integrated master scheduleGlen Alleman
Traditional approaches to planning, scheduling, and managing technical performance are not adequate to defend against these disruptions. This paper outlines the six steps for building a risk-tolerant schedule, using a field-proven approach.
Developing Standards for Enterprise Schedule QualityAcumen
This white papers addresses the need to implement a standard for schedule quality and explains how ensuring quality in the IMS (Integrated Master Schedule) can be achieved through a three-step process.
Simplifiying cost and schedule risk analysis with acumen riskAcumen
Schedule risk analysis doesn’t have to be complicated. In this webinar learn how Acumen Risk™ uses a more intuitive approach to evaluating risk to achieve truly integrated cost and schedule risk analysis.
Benchmarking Execution Performance and Earned ValueAcumen
Determining historic PV, BAC, EAC and other EVM measures in order to benchmark for future projects is a valuable technique for ensuring realistic and achievable forecasts. Determining historic EV performance using prior similar projects validates those forecasts. Additionally, the value of benchmarking increases exponentially as the benchmark basis improves. From previous iterations of the schedule to a database of thousands of projects, EVM indicators have a strong correlation with execution performance over time.
Fuse Customer Perspectives: Oil & Gas / EnergyAcumen
A webinar presentation with clients from the industries with some of the costliest, most complex projects on earth: Oil & Gas and Energy. Learn how these project teams manage the complexities of engineering, procurement, construction, and regulation using Acumen Fuse. Panelists include Marathon Oil, Florida Power & Light, and other major energy companies.
Acumen has completed the first leg of the World Tour. This presentation is an in-depth overview of Acumen's solutions, as well as several Fuse use cases from Fuse clients
Does Better Scheduling Drive Execution Success?Acumen
Delivered at PMI SCoP's 9th Annual Scheduling Conference, this presentation discusses the results from a recently conducted research project showing the correlation between the quality of a plan and overall project success, as well as a means of assessing schedule quality and forecasting accuracy using metric analysis.
Meet or Exceed Schedule Expectations through Intelligent AccelerationAcumen
Delivered at PMI SCoP's 9th Annual Scheduling Conference, this presentation is an introduction of a new approach which enables a project to undergo iterative "what if" scenarios until a balance between successful acceleration and achievability.
Dr. McNatty Webinar: An Introduction to Acumen 360Acumen
Dr. Dan Patterson delivered a sneak peek presentation of the soon-to-be-released Acumen 360. The presentation was first look at how Acumen 360 is capable of optimizing projects with its revolutionary scenario generating, criteria building and project integrating capabilities.
PMICOS Webinar: Building a Sound Schedule in an Enterprise EnvironmentAcumen
Dr. Dan Patterson presented a one-hour webinar on effective scheduling using metrics analysis. He reviewed some of the common problems found in schedules and the research that backs the claim that, in the end, the schedule drives project success.
Smarter Project Analysis and Improved Project PerformanceAcumen
A seminar presentation on the importance of baseline compliance and how the faster, easier metric, logic and forensic analyzers and informative visualization options of Fuse 2.1 support project performance and success.
Acumen teamed up with PT&C for this seminar presentation which covered the standards and best practices for project scheduling and using the proper framework to analyze schedules.
This presentation was given by Acumen CEO, Dr. Dan Patterson, and Kurt Voytell, Acumen customer and project manager at Constellation Energy. Created for the Oracle Primavera Special Interest Group webinar, it includes a comprehensive overview and a case study of the use of Fuse at Constellation Energy.
Acumen & ARES delivered this presentation on the need to properly build, analyze and cost-load a schedule. Acumen gave a special sneak peek of Fuse 3.0 and 360.
Intelligent Project Acceleration: An Introduction to Acumen 360Acumen
A one-hour webinar introducing Acumen 360. Acumen 360 gives you the ability to accelerate time frames effortlessly in seconds. It provides pinpointed focus, intelligent optimization and selects the most efficient means of achieving your schedule goals.
Advanced Project Analysis: An Introduction to Fuse 3.0Acumen
An overview of Fuse 3.0. This one-hour webinar presentation focused on providing insight into the advanced project planning quality and execution performance assessment provided by Fuse.
Presented at the 2012 Construction CPM Conference, this presentation walks through the challenges of owner/contractor and JV disputes and reviews solutions and prevention techniques using Fuse.
Achieving the Unachievable: Aligning a Project with Stakeholder ExpectationsAcumen
This webinar presentation walks through a case study on a major capital expenditure project that was able to achieve a faster, risk-adjusted, and still achievable schedule using a combination of schedule and risk analytics based on Acumen's S1>S5 schedule maturity framework.
Advanced Project Analysis and Project Benchmarking with Acumen Cloud™Acumen
A presentation on project analysis, visualization and resolution including tips, tools and techniques for improved project intelligence through advanced analytics. Project benchmarking with Acumen Cloud was also introduced.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network #pi coins #legit #passive income
#US
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
Measuring Risk Exposure through Risk Range Certainty
1. // Measuring Risk Exposure through
Risk Range Certainty (RRC)
Overcoming the Shortcomings of Schedule Confidence Levels
Dr. Dan Patterson, PMP
CEO & President, Acumen
October 2009
+1 512 291 6261 // info@projectacumen.com
www.projectacumen.com
2. Table of Contents
Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3
Traditional Risk Metrics ................................................................................................... 3
Confidence Level .......................................................................................................... 3
Figure 1 – Low Schedule Confidence Level............................................................ 4
Risk Contingency ......................................................................................................... 4
Joint Confidence Level .................................................................................................. 5
Figure 2 – Reporting JCL ....................................................................................... 5
Why is a high JCL Target Almost Impossible to Achieve? .............................................. 5
An Alternate Solution: Risk Range Certainty (RRC) .......................................................... 6
Figure 3 – Risk Range Certainty (RRC) Reporting ................................................. 6
Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 7
Additional Information ..................................................................................................... 7
+1 512 291 6261 // info@projectacumen.com
www.projectacumen.com 2
3. Introduction
This paper discusses the use of an alternate risk exposure metric called Risk Range
Certainty (RRC). This metric has been developed due to risk reporting biases resulting
from focus on risk confidence level and Joint Confidence Level (JCL).
Schedule confidence level is often used as a risk indicator and recently, Joint
Confidence Level (JCL) has evolved from this to tie both cost and schedule risk
exposure together. However, in practice, schedule confidence level and JCL suffer from
a schedule risk characteristic known as merge bias that causes these metrics to be
heavily skewed towards the pessimistic. As such, when using a JCL as a target, we are
potentially setting ourselves up for failure by targeting a goal that is extremely difficult to
achieve. This paper discusses how Risk Range Certainty (RRC) can be used to
overcome this issue and provide a more realistic and true picture of project risk
exposure.
Traditional Risk Metrics
First, consider three risk metrics: confidence level, contingency and Joint Confidence
Level.
Confidence Level
Confidence level is the probability of achieving a given target (typically a given finish
date or target budget cost). In isolation of each other, confidence levels have some
value in determining risk exposure, yet all too often can give misleading results.
Schedule confidence level has a major flaw: CPM schedules inherently carry low
confidence levels somewhat irrespective of the project’s risk level. The reason is this:
A sound CPM schedule will contain a single start milestone, a single finish milestone
and potentially multiple paths in between with at least one (longest) path known as the
critical path. Each and every one of the various paths through the CPM network
ultimately has to converge through to the completion milestone. As a result, when risk
analysis is conducted on a CPM schedule, the probability of all of the various paths
leading to the completion milestone coming in on time is small – this is known as
merge bias. It is analogous to a coin toss. Consider an experiment where we are
tasked with tossing a coin five times and asked the probability of landing five
consecutive heads. The result is not 50% but instead 50%*50%*50%*50*50% or
3.125%. Likewise, if our schedule has only five parallel paths in it, even with, say a
symmetrical +/- 10%, range of uncertainty, the chance of all these paths not impacting
the finish milestone is again well down in the single digits. Reporting a 3% confidence
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4. on a project whose activities have been risk loaded with an equal chance of being early
or late is hard to defend. As such, schedule confidence level should be used with
caution. Experience with tens and tens of major CAPEX projects each containing
several thousand activities has shown that a schedule confidence level of between 10
and 20% is quiet reasonable yet this percentage would normally (yet perhaps falsely)
ring alarm bells with a project manager or company board room.
4% confidence
Figure 1 – Low Schedule Confidence Level
Figure 1 shows risk results for an example project with a very tight risk range applied to
it (-10/+20%) with a resultant confidence level of 4%. This low confidence level is
largely driven by the high number of parallel paths in the schedule and not the risk
inputs.
Risk Contingency
Risk Contingency is also a commonly used metric to determine risk exposure.
Contingency is always represented within the context of a given confidence level. The
amount of required contingency needed on a project at say a very aggressive 20%
confidence is going to be less than the required contingency on the same project at a
much less risky P80 level. Risk-appetite for the project drives the confidence level
against which contingency is reported.
While contingency is a powerful risk metric, is does little for addressing the root cause
of risk but instead acts as a buffer against risk – it is more risk acceptance than risk
reduction. Conversely, risk mitigation is a pro-active risk response technique that truly
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5. attempts to reduce risk exposure and thus reducing the amount of additional required
contingency.
Joint Confidence Level
JCL is a risk metric that gives a probability of achieving a combined target schedule
confidence and target cost confidence. Based on the combination of cost and schedule
confidence (described above), it can be used as a target risk level for which a project to
achieve. In theory, this is an excellent approach as it ensures we don’t focus risk
reduction efforts solely in one dimension (cost or schedule) at the expense or neglect of
the other. In practice, it is an extremely difficult target to achieve.
Figure 2 – Reporting JCL
Figure 2 shows an example JCL report in the form of a scatter diagram where the target
cost and schedule confidence levels have been set to 70%. As a result, the combined
probability of achieving a 70% JCL in this example is 62%. It should be understood that
a target JCL of 70% does NOT mean a target schedule confidence level of 70% and a
respective target cost confidence level of 70%. Instead, the JCL is calculated by
determining the percentage of risk simulation iterations that achieve both a given
cost/schedule confidence level. In short: cost/schedule P70 confidence does not
equate to a P70 JCL.
Why is a high JCL Target Almost Impossible to Achieve?
As described above, JCL is dependent on two factors: cost and schedule confidence
level. As we’ve already seen, schedule confidence suffers heavily from merge bias and
so basing JCL so heavily around schedule confidence level results in very skewed
results.
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6. Even if we consider a project with a very high cost confidence (say 90%) with activities
that have an equal chance of being early or late, when we calculate the JCL, we are left
with a very low percentage JCL. Thus tasking a project with a JCL of say 70% is
extremely aggressive and depending on the complexity of the project, close to
impossible to truly achieve.
An Alternate Solution: Risk Range Certainty (RRC)
Traditional risk range is defined as the difference between the best and worse case
scenarios from a risk analysis (otherwise known as the difference between the P100
and P0 results). Risk range is an extremely valuable risk metric as it gives a true
indication to the degree of risk exposure.
Taking this a step further, if we represent the range as a percentage of the remaining
work left in the project, we give context against the remaining scope of work. A three-
month risk range represents a very different risk exposure on a six-month project to
that of the same range on say a ten year project. Representing range as a percentage,
therefore, overcomes this.
To introduce Risk Range Certainty (RRC), consider the example two-year project in
figure 3 whose schedule risk range is calculated as 138 days. 138 days on a remaining
two years worth of work equates to 19% risk range on the remaining duration – that is
to say, the remaining duration on the project may vary by up to 19%. With 19% range
uncertainty, we may also view this as having 81% schedule risk range certainty (RRC).
With only a 19% range of risk, reporting this as 81% schedule certainty gives a truer
indication of the risk exposure for schedule. What is more useful? Reporting 4%
confidence or having insight into the fact that we have 81% range certainty in our
project.
138 days range,
81% Risk Range
Confidence
4% confidence
Figure 3 – Risk Range Certainty (RRC) Reporting
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7. Conclusion
Reporting risk exposure through the likes of confidence levels and statistical analysis
can be challenging especially to a project audience that is focused on finite and
deterministic goals. Add to this the fact that schedule confidence is driven not only by
risk but more significantly by the structure of the schedule (parallel paths) and the task
of successful risk reporting quickly becomes a major problem.
Understanding both cost and schedule risk exposure is without doubt a necessity but
tying these together through the product of these percentages is highly questionable as
explained above.
These issues can be largely overcome by reporting risk in a manner that gives true
meaning and context. As a result, the Risk Range Certainty (RRC) factor is experiencing
a highly favorable response within project teams and executives alike.
Additional Information
Acumen specializes in project analytics and is the author of Acumen Fuse™, a project
assessment tool. More information on project assessment through metric analysis, risk
assessment and Fuse™ can be found at www.projectacumen.com or by calling +1 512
291 6261.
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