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INTRODUCTION TO
  PROJECT RISK
  MANAGEMENT
        Şafak EBESEK
 Architect, Phd Candidate, ITU
      safak@hotmail.com
Management


          Strategic
         Management



                  Operational
Risk Management   Management
RISK
  Project Risk is an uncertain event or condition, that if it occurs,
  has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective
  such as time, cost, scope or quality. (PMBOK)

Processes include:
   1. risk management planning
   2. risk identification
   3. qualitative risk analysis
   4. quantitative risk analysis
   5. risk response planning
   6. risk monitoring and control
Sample Categories of Risk
Financial: Capital risk, currecy     Contractual: Associated
risk, liquidity risk, credit risk,   with the failure of
interest rate risk                   contractors to deliver devices
Market: Fundamental change           or products to the agreed
in supply and demand                 cost and specification.
functions or global prices for       Operational: Relating to
all sources                          existing operations – both
Economic: Ability to attract         current delivery and
and retain staff in the labour       building and maintaining.
and commodities market;               Political: Change of
effect of global economy on          government, cross cutting
national economy.                    policy decisions
Topics Addressed in a Risk
    Management Plan
Methodology

Roles and responsibilities

Budget and schedule

Risk categories

Risk probability and impact

Risk documentation
Project Risk Management
 Scope                   Time

  RISK                      RISK
          Stakeholder
          Needs and
          Expectations



  Cost                   Quality

   RISK                     RISK
Project Risk Management
What are the risks to the success of the project?
What's the plan to mitigate them?
Who's accountable for these mitigations?
How can we tell these mitigations are working?
How much will these mitigations cost and how long
will they take?
What resources will we need to perform these
mitigations?
Overlap of Process Groups in a Phase


                                                       Executing Processes
Level of Activity




                                  Planning Processes                         Closing
                     Initiating                                              Processes
                     Phase                      Controlling Processes


                                             Time
PM Knowledge Areas & Process Groups
PM Process        Initiating Process       Planning Process Group             Executing Process           Monitoring & Controlling      Closing
Groups /          Group                                                       Group                       Process Group                 Process
Knowledge Area                                                                                                                          Group
Processes
Project           Develop Project          Develop Project Management         Direct and Manage Project   Monitor and Control Project   Close Project
Management        Charter                  Plan                               Execution                   Work
Integration       Develop Prelim Project                                                                  Integrated Change Control
                  Scope Statement

Project Scope                              Scope Planning                                                 Scope Verification
Management                                 Scope Definition                                               Scope Control
                                           Create WBS

Project Time                               Activity Definition & Sequencing                               Schedule Control
Management                                 Resource Estimating
                                           Duration Estimating
                                           Schedule Development

Project Cost                               Cost Estimating                                                Cost Control
Management                                 Cost Budgeting

Project Quality                            Quality Planning                   Perform Quality Assurance   Perform Quality Control
Management
Project HR                                 Human Resources Planning           Acquire Project Team        Manage Project Team
Management                                                                    Develop Project Team

Project                                    Communications Planning            Information Distribution    Performance Reporting
Communications                                                                                            Manage Stakeholders
Management
Project Risk                               Risk Management Planning                                       Risk Monitoring and Control
Management                                 Risk Identification
                                           Qualitative / Quantitative Risk
                                           Analysis
                                           Risk Response Planning

Project                                    Plan Purchases and Acquisitions    Request Seller Responses    Contract Administration       Contract
Procurement                                Plan Contracting                   Select Sellers                                            Closure
Management
Risk Management Process
          Start



      Identify Risk

                      Monitor and
                      Control Risk
      Analyze Risk


       Respond
        to Risk



         Finish
Risk Response Planning
    Tools & Techniques
Avoidance : Identified risks are avoided
through a different course of action
Transference : Transfer of risk to another party
through the use of contracts
Mitigation : Steps are taken to reduce the
occurrence or impact of stated risks
Acceptance : Risks are accepted and
contingency strategies are planned
Contingency and Fallback Plans,
     Contingency Reserves
Contingency plans are predefined actions that the project
team will take if an identified risk event occurs.
Fallback plans are developed for risks that have a high
impact on meeting project objectives, and are put into effect
if attempts to reduce the risk are not effective.
Contingency reserves or allowances are provisions held
by the project sponsor or organization to reduce the risk of
cost or schedule overruns to an acceptable level.
Top Ten Risk Item Tracking
Top Ten Risk Item Tracking is a qualitative risk
analysis tool that helps to identify risks and maintain an
awareness of risks throughout the life of a project.
Establish a periodic review of the top ten project risk
items.
List the current ranking, previous ranking, number of
times the risk appears on the list over a period of time,
and a summary of progress made in resolving the risk
item.
Results of Good Project Risk
          Management
Unlike crisis management, good project risk
management often goes unnoticed
Well-run projects appear to be almost effortless, but
a lot of work goes into running a project well
Project managers should strive to make their jobs
look easy to reflect the results of well-run projects
INTRODUCTION TO
  PROJECT RISK
  MANAGEMENT
        Şafak EBESEK
 Architect, Phd Candidate, ITU
      safak@hotmail.com

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Project Risk Management Overview

  • 1. INTRODUCTION TO PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT Şafak EBESEK Architect, Phd Candidate, ITU safak@hotmail.com
  • 2. Management Strategic Management Operational Risk Management Management
  • 3. RISK Project Risk is an uncertain event or condition, that if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective such as time, cost, scope or quality. (PMBOK) Processes include: 1. risk management planning 2. risk identification 3. qualitative risk analysis 4. quantitative risk analysis 5. risk response planning 6. risk monitoring and control
  • 4. Sample Categories of Risk Financial: Capital risk, currecy Contractual: Associated risk, liquidity risk, credit risk, with the failure of interest rate risk contractors to deliver devices Market: Fundamental change or products to the agreed in supply and demand cost and specification. functions or global prices for Operational: Relating to all sources existing operations – both Economic: Ability to attract current delivery and and retain staff in the labour building and maintaining. and commodities market; Political: Change of effect of global economy on government, cross cutting national economy. policy decisions
  • 5. Topics Addressed in a Risk Management Plan Methodology Roles and responsibilities Budget and schedule Risk categories Risk probability and impact Risk documentation
  • 6. Project Risk Management Scope Time RISK RISK Stakeholder Needs and Expectations Cost Quality RISK RISK
  • 7. Project Risk Management What are the risks to the success of the project? What's the plan to mitigate them? Who's accountable for these mitigations? How can we tell these mitigations are working? How much will these mitigations cost and how long will they take? What resources will we need to perform these mitigations?
  • 8. Overlap of Process Groups in a Phase Executing Processes Level of Activity Planning Processes Closing Initiating Processes Phase Controlling Processes Time
  • 9. PM Knowledge Areas & Process Groups PM Process Initiating Process Planning Process Group Executing Process Monitoring & Controlling Closing Groups / Group Group Process Group Process Knowledge Area Group Processes Project Develop Project Develop Project Management Direct and Manage Project Monitor and Control Project Close Project Management Charter Plan Execution Work Integration Develop Prelim Project Integrated Change Control Scope Statement Project Scope Scope Planning Scope Verification Management Scope Definition Scope Control Create WBS Project Time Activity Definition & Sequencing Schedule Control Management Resource Estimating Duration Estimating Schedule Development Project Cost Cost Estimating Cost Control Management Cost Budgeting Project Quality Quality Planning Perform Quality Assurance Perform Quality Control Management Project HR Human Resources Planning Acquire Project Team Manage Project Team Management Develop Project Team Project Communications Planning Information Distribution Performance Reporting Communications Manage Stakeholders Management Project Risk Risk Management Planning Risk Monitoring and Control Management Risk Identification Qualitative / Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Response Planning Project Plan Purchases and Acquisitions Request Seller Responses Contract Administration Contract Procurement Plan Contracting Select Sellers Closure Management
  • 10. Risk Management Process Start Identify Risk Monitor and Control Risk Analyze Risk Respond to Risk Finish
  • 11. Risk Response Planning Tools & Techniques Avoidance : Identified risks are avoided through a different course of action Transference : Transfer of risk to another party through the use of contracts Mitigation : Steps are taken to reduce the occurrence or impact of stated risks Acceptance : Risks are accepted and contingency strategies are planned
  • 12. Contingency and Fallback Plans, Contingency Reserves Contingency plans are predefined actions that the project team will take if an identified risk event occurs. Fallback plans are developed for risks that have a high impact on meeting project objectives, and are put into effect if attempts to reduce the risk are not effective. Contingency reserves or allowances are provisions held by the project sponsor or organization to reduce the risk of cost or schedule overruns to an acceptable level.
  • 13. Top Ten Risk Item Tracking Top Ten Risk Item Tracking is a qualitative risk analysis tool that helps to identify risks and maintain an awareness of risks throughout the life of a project. Establish a periodic review of the top ten project risk items. List the current ranking, previous ranking, number of times the risk appears on the list over a period of time, and a summary of progress made in resolving the risk item.
  • 14. Results of Good Project Risk Management Unlike crisis management, good project risk management often goes unnoticed Well-run projects appear to be almost effortless, but a lot of work goes into running a project well Project managers should strive to make their jobs look easy to reflect the results of well-run projects
  • 15. INTRODUCTION TO PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT Şafak EBESEK Architect, Phd Candidate, ITU safak@hotmail.com