Measuring policy influence:
   like measuring thin air?
             John Young: j.young@odi.org.uk
       Arnaldo Pellini: a.pellini.ra@odi.org.uk
RAPID



 Power, Politics and evidence use




Knowledge intermediaries
and interactions                    Evidence production and
                                    communication
Policy processes are...

                                                                          Cabinet	
  
     Donors	
                                         Policy	
  
                                                   Formula/on	
  

                                 Agenda	
  	
                                          Parliament	
  
                                 Se3ng	
  
                                                                        Decision	
  
                                                                        Making	
  
Civil	
  Society	
  


                                 Monitoring	
  and	
                              Ministries	
  
                                  Evalua/on	
                      Policy	
  
                                                              Implementa/on	
  
               Private	
  	
  
               Sector	
  
The Cynefn Framework




4
Policy change

    •  Discursive: Client-
       focused services
    •  Attitudinal: Farmers
       have good ideas
    •  Procedural: Participatory
       approaches to service development
    •  Content: UU20, UU25. New guidelines
    •  Behavioural: Approach being applied in
       practice

5
Focus on behaviour change


Project
Team




Other
Actors
     Inputs   Activities   Outputs   Outcomes
                                      Outcome
                                      Outcomes    Impact
                                                 Impact
                                                 Impact




                                     Behaviour
 6                                    Change
RAPID Outcome Mapping Approach




          Define your
            policy
          objectives
RAPID Outcome Mapping Approach

                  Media strategy

                  Online
                  communications

                  Develop a network
                  or partnership

                  Academic research
                  communications

                  Policy advocacy
                  coalition


                  More research
Why do M&E?

•  To learn about what works
•  To manage better
•  To account:
    –  to donors
    –  to recipients




9
Methods

•  Classical case studies (IDRC, IFPRI)
•  Episode studies (ODI/RAPID)
•  Stories of Change (Denning)
•  Micro-Narratives (Snowden)
•  Impact matrices (Davies)
•  Peer evaluations (CHSRF)
•  Systematic reviews?
•  RCTs?


10
Outcome Mapping

                          OUTCOME
                          MAPPING:
                          Building
                          Learning and
                          Reflection into
                          Development
                          Programs
                          Sarah Earl, Fred
                          Carden, and Terry
                          Smutylo
     http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-9330-201-1-
     DO_TOPIC.html



11
Social Network Analysis




12   www.odi.org.uk/RAPID/Tools/Toolkits/KM/Social_network_analysi
RAPID Outcome Assessment




13   www.odi.org.uk/RAPID/Publications/RAPID_WP_266.htm
A systematic approach
1.  Strategy and direction –are you
    doing the right thing?
2.  Management –are you doing what
    you planned to do?
3.  Outputs – are the outputs
    appropriate for the audience?
4.  Uptake – are people aware of your
    work?
5.  Outcomes and impacts –are you
    having any impact?



14
Conclusions

Research to influence:      Measuring impact
•  Clear objectives         •    Clear objectives
                            •    Theory of change
•  Understand the context
                            •    5-levels
•  Theory of change
                            •    Multiple methods
•  Iterative / learning     •    Triangulation
   approach
                            •    Expect the unexpected




15
Recommendations

•  Strategy: theory of change, impact
     pathways, peer review, log frame
•  Management: process records, appreciative
     inquiry, AARs, PRINCE2
•  Output: logs, peer-review,
•  Uptake: logs, webstats, surveys
•  Impact: outcome mapping, stories of
     change, episode studies, peer review


16
VDR 2010




VDR 2010: assessing policy
influence
VDR 2010

VDR 2010: Modern Institutions

•  Research output of a large governance
   programme (DfID)
•  12 months of research and consultations
•  Presented by WB + 13 donors in 12/2009
•  Policy influence assessment in 03/2011
Confirm the policy change


Attitudinal change

Procedural change

Policy content

Behaviour change
Policy influencing approaches
                               Evidence / science
                                     based


                 Advising                           Advocacy


                            VDR 2010
Inside track /                                                     Outside track /
 cooperation                                                          pressure




                 Lobbying                           Activism


                                Interest / values
                                     based
                                                           Start and Hovland
                                                           (2004)
Areas of M&E


Strategy and direction       Logframes, ToC

                           Project Governance,
Management processes
                          Research Management
                           Peer reviews, After
Outputs
                             Action Reviews
                         Citation Analysis, Uptake
Uptake
                          logs, User Surveys, …
                            Stories of Change,
Outcomes and impacts
                            Episode Studies, …


                                       Hovland 2007
Areas of M&E

  Areas of evaluation          Planned


Strategy and direction


Management processes


Outputs

                         Data on uptake of
Uptake                   VDR 2010

Outcomes and impacts     Stories of Change
What we did

•  Collaborate with a local research/advocacy
   organization

•  Citation analysis Google search

•  Interviews with donors representatives

•  Interviews with GoV advisers involved in the
   VDR 2010 process

•  Interviews with GoV officials
What we did/learned

•  Cultural norms influence the process
•  Citation, Google search, and time
•  Uptake and www traffic data
•  Management of the process emerged as an
   important theme
•  Perception of the quality of the report
•  Too early to speak of impact
What we did/learned

 Areas of evaluation         Planned       What we did/learned

Strategy and                               Perception about the
direction                                  timing of the VDR 2010

Management                                 Perception of the
processes                                  process

                                           Perception of the
Outputs
                                           quality of the VDR 2010

                       Data on uptake of   Data on uptake of the
Uptake                 VDR 2010            VDR 2010

Outcomes and           Story of Change /
impacts                Episode Study
What we did/learned


Assessing the policy influence of research: a
case study of governance research in Viet
Nam

ODI Background Notes, May 2012
(http://bit.ly/LNLHE0)


Assessment of the delivery of the
Vietnam development report 2010 (Full
report)
(http://bit.ly/LNOJZ1)
M&E in ODI

•  ODI has 12 core research programs

•  145 publications / 74 blogs / 13 issues
   Development Policy Review and Disasters
   (2009-2010)

•  20 public events / 4500 participants
   (2009-2010)

•  Advisory work
M&E in ODI

Strategy and     ODI Strategy / Program Strategy / Reviews by
  direction                       SMT / ToCs




                 Institute-wide management processes / staff
Management        surveys / project completion reports / after
 processes           action reviews / internal peer review



               Peer reviews / quality assurance / communication
  Outputs      team input / user surveys / end of project report
                             + after action reviews
M&E in ODI


         Note by communication team /
Uptake   CommStat / regular updates on
              uptake / uptake log
M&E in ODI




CommStat ODI RAPID July – September 2011
M&E in ODI
M&E in ODI


Outcome /   Stories of Change page / Review by TT
 Impact      heads (2008) / Program evaluations
M&E in ODI




http://www.odi.org.uk/work/stories-change/
Thank you

Measuring policy influence: like measuring thin air?

  • 1.
    Measuring policy influence: like measuring thin air? John Young: j.young@odi.org.uk Arnaldo Pellini: a.pellini.ra@odi.org.uk
  • 2.
    RAPID Power, Politicsand evidence use Knowledge intermediaries and interactions Evidence production and communication
  • 3.
    Policy processes are... Cabinet   Donors   Policy   Formula/on   Agenda     Parliament   Se3ng   Decision   Making   Civil  Society   Monitoring  and   Ministries   Evalua/on   Policy   Implementa/on   Private     Sector  
  • 4.
  • 5.
    Policy change •  Discursive: Client- focused services •  Attitudinal: Farmers have good ideas •  Procedural: Participatory approaches to service development •  Content: UU20, UU25. New guidelines •  Behavioural: Approach being applied in practice 5
  • 6.
    Focus on behaviourchange Project Team Other Actors Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Outcome Outcomes Impact Impact Impact Behaviour 6 Change
  • 7.
    RAPID Outcome MappingApproach Define your policy objectives
  • 8.
    RAPID Outcome MappingApproach Media strategy Online communications Develop a network or partnership Academic research communications Policy advocacy coalition More research
  • 9.
    Why do M&E? • To learn about what works •  To manage better •  To account: –  to donors –  to recipients 9
  • 10.
    Methods •  Classical casestudies (IDRC, IFPRI) •  Episode studies (ODI/RAPID) •  Stories of Change (Denning) •  Micro-Narratives (Snowden) •  Impact matrices (Davies) •  Peer evaluations (CHSRF) •  Systematic reviews? •  RCTs? 10
  • 11.
    Outcome Mapping OUTCOME MAPPING: Building Learning and Reflection into Development Programs Sarah Earl, Fred Carden, and Terry Smutylo http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-9330-201-1- DO_TOPIC.html 11
  • 12.
    Social Network Analysis 12 www.odi.org.uk/RAPID/Tools/Toolkits/KM/Social_network_analysi
  • 13.
    RAPID Outcome Assessment 13 www.odi.org.uk/RAPID/Publications/RAPID_WP_266.htm
  • 14.
    A systematic approach 1. Strategy and direction –are you doing the right thing? 2.  Management –are you doing what you planned to do? 3.  Outputs – are the outputs appropriate for the audience? 4.  Uptake – are people aware of your work? 5.  Outcomes and impacts –are you having any impact? 14
  • 15.
    Conclusions Research to influence: Measuring impact •  Clear objectives •  Clear objectives •  Theory of change •  Understand the context •  5-levels •  Theory of change •  Multiple methods •  Iterative / learning •  Triangulation approach •  Expect the unexpected 15
  • 16.
    Recommendations •  Strategy: theoryof change, impact pathways, peer review, log frame •  Management: process records, appreciative inquiry, AARs, PRINCE2 •  Output: logs, peer-review, •  Uptake: logs, webstats, surveys •  Impact: outcome mapping, stories of change, episode studies, peer review 16
  • 17.
    VDR 2010 VDR 2010:assessing policy influence
  • 18.
    VDR 2010 VDR 2010:Modern Institutions •  Research output of a large governance programme (DfID) •  12 months of research and consultations •  Presented by WB + 13 donors in 12/2009 •  Policy influence assessment in 03/2011
  • 19.
    Confirm the policychange Attitudinal change Procedural change Policy content Behaviour change
  • 20.
    Policy influencing approaches Evidence / science based Advising Advocacy VDR 2010 Inside track / Outside track / cooperation pressure Lobbying Activism Interest / values based Start and Hovland (2004)
  • 21.
    Areas of M&E Strategyand direction Logframes, ToC Project Governance, Management processes Research Management Peer reviews, After Outputs Action Reviews Citation Analysis, Uptake Uptake logs, User Surveys, … Stories of Change, Outcomes and impacts Episode Studies, … Hovland 2007
  • 22.
    Areas of M&E Areas of evaluation Planned Strategy and direction Management processes Outputs Data on uptake of Uptake VDR 2010 Outcomes and impacts Stories of Change
  • 23.
    What we did • Collaborate with a local research/advocacy organization •  Citation analysis Google search •  Interviews with donors representatives •  Interviews with GoV advisers involved in the VDR 2010 process •  Interviews with GoV officials
  • 24.
    What we did/learned • Cultural norms influence the process •  Citation, Google search, and time •  Uptake and www traffic data •  Management of the process emerged as an important theme •  Perception of the quality of the report •  Too early to speak of impact
  • 25.
    What we did/learned Areas of evaluation Planned What we did/learned Strategy and Perception about the direction timing of the VDR 2010 Management Perception of the processes process Perception of the Outputs quality of the VDR 2010 Data on uptake of Data on uptake of the Uptake VDR 2010 VDR 2010 Outcomes and Story of Change / impacts Episode Study
  • 26.
    What we did/learned Assessingthe policy influence of research: a case study of governance research in Viet Nam ODI Background Notes, May 2012 (http://bit.ly/LNLHE0) Assessment of the delivery of the Vietnam development report 2010 (Full report) (http://bit.ly/LNOJZ1)
  • 27.
    M&E in ODI • ODI has 12 core research programs •  145 publications / 74 blogs / 13 issues Development Policy Review and Disasters (2009-2010) •  20 public events / 4500 participants (2009-2010) •  Advisory work
  • 28.
    M&E in ODI Strategyand ODI Strategy / Program Strategy / Reviews by direction SMT / ToCs Institute-wide management processes / staff Management surveys / project completion reports / after processes action reviews / internal peer review Peer reviews / quality assurance / communication Outputs team input / user surveys / end of project report + after action reviews
  • 29.
    M&E in ODI Note by communication team / Uptake CommStat / regular updates on uptake / uptake log
  • 30.
    M&E in ODI CommStatODI RAPID July – September 2011
  • 31.
  • 32.
    M&E in ODI Outcome/ Stories of Change page / Review by TT Impact heads (2008) / Program evaluations
  • 33.
  • 34.