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Conditional Probability


    Math Studies
    Diploma Programme
Conditional Probability

   Conditional Probability contains a condition
    that may limit the sample space for an event.
   You can write a conditional probability using
    the notation
                     P ( B A)
- This reads “the probability of event B, given
  event A”
Conditional Probability
 The table shows the results of a class survey.
 Find P(own a pet | female)

   Do you own a pet?
            yes          no
   female    8            6          14 females;
   male      5            7          13 males

   The condition female limits the sample space to 14 possible outcomes.


   Of the 14 females, 8 own a pet.


   Therefore, P(own a pet | female) equals 8 .
                                            14
Conditional Probability
 The table shows the results of a class survey.
 Find P(wash the dishes | male)

   Did you wash the dishes last night?
             yes        no
   female     7          6           13 females;
   male       7          8           15 males

   The condition male limits the sample space to 15 possible outcomes.


   Of the 15 males, 7 did the dishes.


   Therefore, P(wash the dishes | male)      7
                                            15
Let’s Try One

Using the data in the table, find the probability that a sample of not
recycled waste was plastic. P(plastic | non-recycled)

    The given condition limits the           Material Recycled      Not Recycled
    sample space to non-recycled             Paper      34.9            48.9
    waste.                                   Metal      6.5             10.1
                                             Glass      2.9              9.1
   A favorable outcome is
                                             Plastic    1.1             20.4
   non-recycled plastic.
                                             Other      15.3            67.8

                                             20.4
    P(plastic | non-recycled) =
                                48.9 + 10.1 + 9.1 + 20.4 + 67.8
                                 20.4
                              =
                                156.3
                                0.13
    The probability that the non-recycled waste was plastic is about 13%.
Conditional Probability Formula

   The conditional probability that A occurs given
    that B has occurred is written as P(A B)
    and is defined as:


                         P(A ∩ B)
                P(A B) =
                          P(B)
Problem Solving with Venn Diagram
In a class of 29 students, 20 students study French, 15
students study Malay, and 8 students study both
languages. A student is chosen at random from the class.
Find the probability that the students:
a.Studies French

b.Studies neither language

c.Studies at least one language

d.Studies both languages

e.Studies Malay given that they study French

f.Studies French given that they study Malay

g.Studies both language given that they study at least one
of the languages
Venn Diagram


     F                 M


         12        7
               8




                           2
Find the probability that a person chosen at random:
a.is in A

b.is not in either A or B

c.is not in A and not in B

d.is in A, given that they are not in B

e.is in B, given that they are in A

f.is in both A and B, given that they are in A


                    A                  B

                        15   8    12


                                           5
Find the probability that a person chosen at random:
a.is in A

b.is not in either A or B

c.is not in A and not in B

d.is in A, given that they are not in B

e.is in B, given that they are in A

f.is in both A and B, given that they are in A


                    A                  B

                        15   8    12


                                           5

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Math Studies conditional probability

  • 1. Conditional Probability Math Studies Diploma Programme
  • 2. Conditional Probability  Conditional Probability contains a condition that may limit the sample space for an event.  You can write a conditional probability using the notation P ( B A) - This reads “the probability of event B, given event A”
  • 3. Conditional Probability The table shows the results of a class survey. Find P(own a pet | female) Do you own a pet? yes no female 8 6 14 females; male 5 7 13 males The condition female limits the sample space to 14 possible outcomes. Of the 14 females, 8 own a pet. Therefore, P(own a pet | female) equals 8 . 14
  • 4. Conditional Probability The table shows the results of a class survey. Find P(wash the dishes | male) Did you wash the dishes last night? yes no female 7 6 13 females; male 7 8 15 males The condition male limits the sample space to 15 possible outcomes. Of the 15 males, 7 did the dishes. Therefore, P(wash the dishes | male) 7 15
  • 5. Let’s Try One Using the data in the table, find the probability that a sample of not recycled waste was plastic. P(plastic | non-recycled) The given condition limits the Material Recycled Not Recycled sample space to non-recycled Paper 34.9 48.9 waste. Metal 6.5 10.1 Glass 2.9 9.1 A favorable outcome is Plastic 1.1 20.4 non-recycled plastic. Other 15.3 67.8 20.4 P(plastic | non-recycled) = 48.9 + 10.1 + 9.1 + 20.4 + 67.8 20.4 = 156.3 0.13 The probability that the non-recycled waste was plastic is about 13%.
  • 6. Conditional Probability Formula  The conditional probability that A occurs given that B has occurred is written as P(A B) and is defined as: P(A ∩ B) P(A B) = P(B)
  • 7. Problem Solving with Venn Diagram In a class of 29 students, 20 students study French, 15 students study Malay, and 8 students study both languages. A student is chosen at random from the class. Find the probability that the students: a.Studies French b.Studies neither language c.Studies at least one language d.Studies both languages e.Studies Malay given that they study French f.Studies French given that they study Malay g.Studies both language given that they study at least one of the languages
  • 8. Venn Diagram F M 12 7 8 2
  • 9. Find the probability that a person chosen at random: a.is in A b.is not in either A or B c.is not in A and not in B d.is in A, given that they are not in B e.is in B, given that they are in A f.is in both A and B, given that they are in A A B 15 8 12 5
  • 10. Find the probability that a person chosen at random: a.is in A b.is not in either A or B c.is not in A and not in B d.is in A, given that they are not in B e.is in B, given that they are in A f.is in both A and B, given that they are in A A B 15 8 12 5