1. .
Market Outlook
India Research
August 10, 2010
Dealer’s Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
The key benchmark indices opened on a tentative note, given the mixed signals
BSE Sensex 0.8% 143.5 18,288
from the Asian markets in opening trades, but indices extended gains during
Nifty 0.9% 46.9 5,486
mid-morning trade. The market held firm in early afternoon trade. Momentum
MID CAP 1.2% 87.6 7,622
picked up with the positive opening of Europe. Finally in the afternoon session,
SMALL CAP 1.4% 136.2 9,720
markets extended gains in late trade due to a positive set of cues from the
global front, with the Sensex and Nifty closing up by 0.8% and 0.9%, BSE HC 0.0% (0.6) 5,592
respectively. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices performed better, closing up by BSE PSU 0.8% 73.1 9,647
1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Among the front liners, DLF, ICICI, Tata Motors, BANKEX 1.3% 151.4 11,944
RCOM and ACC gained between 2-4%, while HDFC Bank, RIL and Cipla AUTO 1.1% 97.7 8,631
declined 0-1%. Among mid caps, Jubiliant FoodWorks, Essar Shipping, Anant METAL 1.5% 235.8 15,706
Raj, Shobha Developers and Onmobile Global grew 9-12%, while KGN OIL & GAS -0.4% (41.9) 10,075
Industries, Britannia, Shree Global Traders, Atlas Copco and Jagran Prakashan BSE IT 0.6% 33.1 5,672
lost 2-16% Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones 0.4% 45.2 10,699
Markets Today
NASDAQ 0.8% 17.2 2,306
The trend deciding level for the day is 18246/5471 levels. If NIFTY trades FTSE 1.5% 78.1 5,411
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a
Nikkei -0.7% (69.6) 9,572
further rally up to 18351–18415/5508–5530 levels. However, if NIFTY trades
below 18246/5471 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct Hang Seng 0.6% 122.8 21,802
up to 18182–18076/5449–5412 levels. Straits Times - - 2,995
Indices S2 S1 R1 R2 Shanghai Com 0.5% 14.1 2,673
SENSEX 18,076 18,182 18,351 18,415
NIFTY 5,412 5,449 5,508 5,530 Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Infosys 0.8% 0.5 $62.4
News Analysis Wipro 0.4% 0.0 $13.9
Satyam -1.6% (0.1) $4.9
Result Reviews: Electrosteel Castings, Finolex, Jain Irrigation, Monnet Ispat
ICICI Bank 2.4% 1.0 $42.4
Result Previews: IVRCL, Motherson Sumi, Nagarjuna Const, Piramal
HDFC Bank 0.1% 0.1 $161.7
Healthcare, Tata Motors
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page.
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Net Inflows (August 06, 2010) Advances 1,974 953
Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD Declines 1,008 392
FII 2,676 1,847 829 3,280 51,220 Unchanged 95 39
MFs 516 839 (323) (630) (13,253)
Volumes (Rs cr)
FII Derivatives (August 09, 2010) BSE 4,921
Open NSE 12,787
Rs cr Purch Sales Net
Interest
Index Futures 854 644 210 16,688
Stock Futures 1,033 926 107 35,645
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Price Price
Company chg (%) Company chg (%)
(Rs) (Rs)
Essar Shipping 128 10.5 Engineers India 324 (4.7)
Anant Raj 126 9.2 Reliance Cap 768 (1.7)
Tata Comm 293 6.7 Financial Tech 1,211 (1.5)
Educomp 655 6.5 Jai Corp 287 (1.3)
Unitech 90 6.3 Cairn India 339 (1.1)
1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

2. Market Outlook | India Research
Result Review-1QFY2011
Electrosteel Castings
Electrosteel Castings’ (ECL) 1QFY2011 net revenue came in at Rs360cr and net profit
stood at Rs30cr. We like the company’s move in venturing into steel making through its
subsidiary Electrosteel Integrated, which is setting up a 2.2mn tonne steel plant that is
expected to be commissioned by FY2012E. ECL is also awaiting final environmental
clearance for its iron ore mine, which will further lower costs; however, we have not
factored it in our estimates.
ECL’s net revenue declined by 3.5% yoy to Rs360cr; however, it was higher 14.2%
sequentially. On the operating front, ECL’s margin declined by 982bp yoy to 18.5% mainly
on account of a) increased power cost (which as a % of sales increased to 8.0% from 6.3%
in 1QFY2010) and b) higher other expenses (which as a % of sales increased to 22.5%
from 18.5% in 1QFY2010). Consequently, EBITDA declined by 37% yoy to Rs67cr.
However, on a sequential basis, EBITDA margin improved by 365bp because of lower staff
cost and other expenses. The increase in other income (76% yoy to Rs6cr) was negated by
higher interest expense, which grew by 43% yoy to Rs17cr. As a result, net profit declined
by 48.2% yoy to Rs30cr but increased by 44.8% on a sequential basis.
At the CMP of Rs53, the stock is trading at 8.2x FY2011E and 7.9x FY2012E earnings. On
a P/BV basis, it is trading at 0.9x FY2011E and FY2012E estimates. We maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with an SOTP-based Target Price of Rs72. We have valued ECL’s parent
business at 8x FY2012E earnings and its investment in the steel business at 1x P/BV.
Finolex Cables
Finolex Cables reported strong top-line growth of 50.4% yoy in 1QFY2011 to Rs493.1cr
(Rs320.6cr), which was well above our expectations. The company's sales growth was
backed by sales growth of 41.0% yoy in the electrical cables segment and 68.2% in the
copper rods segment. However, operating profit margin declined by 720bp yoy to 8.0%
(15.2%) on the back of higher raw-material prices. On a qoq basis, operating margins
improved by 97bp. The company reported forex losses of Rs3.6cr, which was again a
positive surprise. Strong top-line growth overshadowed the decline in OPM; and
consequently, EPS increased to Rs1.5 (Rs1.4). Currently, the stock is under review and we
will be revising our numbers post the management call.
Jain Irrigation
Jain Irrigation declared its 1QFY2011 results. The company’s revenue grew by 27% to
Rs725.7cr, which was slightly ahead of our estimates. The company reported higher
EBITDA margin at 22.8%, which was against our estimates of 22.1% but was another
positive for the company. PAT came in at Rs52.7cr; however, adjusting for forex loss, it
stood at Rs63.8cr (Rs42cr in 1QFY2010), below our estimate of Rs69.9. Overall, the
company’s results were in line with our estimates. We currently have an Accumulate rating
on the stock; however, the Target Price is under review.
August 10, 2010 2

3. Market Outlook | India Research
Monnet Ispat & Energy
For 1QFY2011, Monnet Ispat & Energy’s (MIEL) net revenue increased by 18.0% yoy to
Rs420cr on the back of higher realisations in the steel division. The steel division
contributed 71.8% to the top line as compared to 64.9% in 1QFY2010. While sponge iron
sales volume increased by 34.5% yoy to 169,597 tonnes, billets and structural steel sales
volume decreased by 97.6% and 22.6% yoy to 218 tonnes and 18,796 tonnes,
respectively. Average realisation for sponge iron, billet and structural steel were higher by
20.4%, 31.5% and 12.7% yoy, respectively. Reduced production of steel led to power sales
volume increasing by 12.5% yoy to 221mn tonnes, although realisations decreased by
16.2% yoy to Rs4.9/unit.
Despite a healthy increase in realisations, EBITDA margin dipped slightly by 138bp yoy to
28.8% on account of increased raw material costs. Iron ore cost increased by 33% yoy to
Rs4,449/tonne, leading to a 28.1% yoy increase in raw material costs to Rs232cr. This was
negated by the 11% yoy fall in other expenses to Rs36cr.
Despite margin pressure, the company’s bottom line grew by 18.7% yoy to Rs73cr, as
interest expense declined by 27.2% yoy to Rs14.4cr. Tax rate for the quarter stood at
19.9% v/s 16.7% in 1QFY2010.
We believe the timely execution of MIEL’s steel and power projects can provide a
significant upside from current levels. While the 80MW power capacity expansion will drive
earnings momentum in the near term, long-term stock performance will be determined by
the timely execution of the company’s 1.5mtpa steel plant expansion and unlocking of
value in Monnet Power, which is implementing the 1,050MW power project. We
recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with an SOTP Target Price of Rs534
(valuing the steel business at 6x FY2012E EV/EBITDA and investment in Monnet Power at
1.4xP/BV). Our best-case scenario indicates a Target Price of Rs687 (valuing the steel
business at 6x FY2012E EV/EBITDA and stake in Monnet Power at 1.8x P/BV), which
implies a potential upside of 38% from the current level.
Result Preview-1QFY2011
IVRCL Infrastructure
IVRCL Infrastructure (IVRCL) is expected to announce its 1QFY2011 results. We expect the
company to post top-line yoy growth of 23.9% to Rs1,368cr. The operating margin is
expected to stand at 8.6%, whereas the bottom line is expected to be flat at Rs35.6cr. We
maintain a Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of Rs216.
Motherson Sumi Systems
Motherson Sumi is slated to announce its 1QFY2011 results. The company is expected to
post robust 39.6% yoy growth in revenue to Rs1,960cr for the quarter. On the operating
front, the company is expected to post a 712bp yoy margin expansion to 13.1%. Hence,
net profit is expected to surge by substantial 950% yoy to Rs116cr. The stock rating is
under review
Nagarjuna Construction Company
Nagarjuna Construction Company is expected to announce its 1QFY2011 results. We
expect the company to post top-line yoy growth of 27.5% to Rs1,275cr. The operating
margin is expected to stand at 9.4%, whereas the bottom line is expected to be at
Rs48.8cr. We maintain a Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of Rs201.
August 10, 2010 3

4. Market Outlook | India Research
Piramal Healthcare
Piramal Healthcare is slated to announce its 1QFY2011 results. The company is estimated
to post top-line growth of 13.5% to Rs933cr for the quarter. The company is also expected
to post strong growth on the domestic formulation front. The CRAMS segment, however, is
expected to remain flat. OPM is estimated to expand by 150bp to 20.4% and net profit is
expected to come at Rs131cr. We maintain Neutral on the stock
Tata Motors
Tata Motors is slated to announce its 1QFY2011 results. We expect the company’s top line
to grow by 74.7% yoy to Rs11,092cr on account of 47.6% yoy growth in volumes. EBITDA
margin is expected to decline marginally by 19bp yoy to 9.1%. The bottom line is expected
to decline by 25.7% yoy to Rs381.7cr. The stock rating is under review
August 10, 2010 4

5. Market Outlook | India Research
Economic and Political News
Cost of 268 projects overshoots Rs50,000cr due to delay: Govt
FM not averse to more fiscal, monetary steps to ease inflation
Home Ministry asks DoT to stop all 3G services
Corporate News
Lupin sues Ranbaxy in US for patent infringement
BHEL secures Rs2,525cr order from Abhijeet Infra
Pride Hotels to invest Rs1,000cr for expansion
SAIL commissions Rs39cr unit at Salem
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Events for the day
Amtek Auto Results
Borosil Glass Results
DEN Networks Results
Educomp Results
Great Offshore Results
Hindustan Motors Results
IVRCL Infra Results
Jai Corp Results
Micro Tech Results
Motherson Sumi Results
Nagarjuna Construction Results
Pentamedia Graphics Results
Piramal Health Results
Rashtriya Chemicals Results
Rolta India Results
Tata Motors Results
August 10, 2010 5

6. Market Outlook | India Research
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