As “enlightened” as such statement by what Stanford University calls “the most influential English speaking philosopher of the 19th century” is, one could easily make an argument that when it comes to commodity market analysis the statement seems to be as useful as a bicycle to a fish.
CONCERNS about the long-term impact of a weather-challenged autumn sowing campaign in the former Soviet ‘Black Sea’ countries have dominated market sentiment since our last review, keeping wheat prices off the rock-bottom levels that might have been demanded by this season’s huge surplus crop.
MORE good news this month for feed raw material consumers’ costs: The world supply outlook for maize seems to be getting looser by the month, pushing prices down to yet more historical (33-month) lows as we go to press. Not only has the US crop turned out even bigger than expected in our last review; the second largest consumer of maize, China, now appears to be using considerably less than estimated earlier. Top outlet for maize, the USA might also need less than expected as we move into 2014 after proposals to roll back targets for renewable fuel use.
FUNDAMENTALS have tipped further in favour of the grain and feed consumer since our April review as an ever loosening new crop supply outlook promises an extended period of cost restraint. Until recently, the popular view among analysts had been for an inevitable decline in crop yields from last year’s above normal levels and, in several key supplier countries, some cutback in sowings in response to this season’s grain surpluses and low prices. But it was also assumed the massive stocks carried over from the current season of plenty would cushion the forward market against the crop decline – so no reason for any drastic price increases.
Grain prices have steadied in recent weeks after their long drop amid further signs that 2015/16 supplies will be ‘less loose’ than this season’s - if not exactly ‘tight’ by historical comparison.
GLOBAL wheat markets have spent most of 2015 to date in retreat from a steep run-up in prices in the final weeks of last year. Many readers may be aware that the main element in that upturn was the decision by fourth largest exporter Russia to curb the too-rapid flow of its once-plentiful milling wheat onto world markets at a time when doubts were rising about the size of its next harvest. As the rouble nosedived with the collapse in value of Russia’s crude oil exports and Western sanctions – keeping Russian exports cheap - there did seem a real risk, as the year turned, that too much of its wheat would be snapped up by foreign buyers, leaving its domestic market short and at risk of escalating costs for that most basic staple, bread. Russia is also thought to need more wheat and other cereals for animal feed this seaso as it tries to boost domestic livestock output to replace embargoed meat imports from Europe and the USA.
CROP farmers anxiously watching prices fall to ever less remunerative levels have had further unwelcome news over the past couple of months from yet higher cereal and oilseed crop estimates across the Northern Hemisphere.
Grain & feed markets have been volatile in the past month, futures prices initially rising sharply on ‘outside’ buying, then dropping back again under the weight of more bearish supply news - with the notable exception of soya.
22nd january,2015 daily global rice e newsletter by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Daily Rice Global Rice e-Newsletter shared by Riceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news with us for Global readers.
Dear all guests/Commentators/Researchers/Experts ,You are humbly requested to share One/Two pages write up with Riceplus Magazine .
For more information visit (www.ricepluss.com + http://publishpk.net/index.php/riceplus).
Share /contribute your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine to riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
CONCERNS about the long-term impact of a weather-challenged autumn sowing campaign in the former Soviet ‘Black Sea’ countries have dominated market sentiment since our last review, keeping wheat prices off the rock-bottom levels that might have been demanded by this season’s huge surplus crop.
MORE good news this month for feed raw material consumers’ costs: The world supply outlook for maize seems to be getting looser by the month, pushing prices down to yet more historical (33-month) lows as we go to press. Not only has the US crop turned out even bigger than expected in our last review; the second largest consumer of maize, China, now appears to be using considerably less than estimated earlier. Top outlet for maize, the USA might also need less than expected as we move into 2014 after proposals to roll back targets for renewable fuel use.
FUNDAMENTALS have tipped further in favour of the grain and feed consumer since our April review as an ever loosening new crop supply outlook promises an extended period of cost restraint. Until recently, the popular view among analysts had been for an inevitable decline in crop yields from last year’s above normal levels and, in several key supplier countries, some cutback in sowings in response to this season’s grain surpluses and low prices. But it was also assumed the massive stocks carried over from the current season of plenty would cushion the forward market against the crop decline – so no reason for any drastic price increases.
Grain prices have steadied in recent weeks after their long drop amid further signs that 2015/16 supplies will be ‘less loose’ than this season’s - if not exactly ‘tight’ by historical comparison.
GLOBAL wheat markets have spent most of 2015 to date in retreat from a steep run-up in prices in the final weeks of last year. Many readers may be aware that the main element in that upturn was the decision by fourth largest exporter Russia to curb the too-rapid flow of its once-plentiful milling wheat onto world markets at a time when doubts were rising about the size of its next harvest. As the rouble nosedived with the collapse in value of Russia’s crude oil exports and Western sanctions – keeping Russian exports cheap - there did seem a real risk, as the year turned, that too much of its wheat would be snapped up by foreign buyers, leaving its domestic market short and at risk of escalating costs for that most basic staple, bread. Russia is also thought to need more wheat and other cereals for animal feed this seaso as it tries to boost domestic livestock output to replace embargoed meat imports from Europe and the USA.
CROP farmers anxiously watching prices fall to ever less remunerative levels have had further unwelcome news over the past couple of months from yet higher cereal and oilseed crop estimates across the Northern Hemisphere.
Grain & feed markets have been volatile in the past month, futures prices initially rising sharply on ‘outside’ buying, then dropping back again under the weight of more bearish supply news - with the notable exception of soya.
22nd january,2015 daily global rice e newsletter by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Daily Rice Global Rice e-Newsletter shared by Riceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news with us for Global readers.
Dear all guests/Commentators/Researchers/Experts ,You are humbly requested to share One/Two pages write up with Riceplus Magazine .
For more information visit (www.ricepluss.com + http://publishpk.net/index.php/riceplus).
Share /contribute your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine to riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
This report provides in depth review of the market activities of ag commodities in the month of April. It also gives the outlook of the commodities covered.
JUST two months on from our last review, the mood in cereal markets has shifted markedly from bear to bull – for the short term at least. The over-riding influence has been events in the former Soviet Union, where the risk of political upheaval turning to military conflict cast a shadow over grain exports from this important supplying region.
Shenggan Fan, Director General of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) outlines five strategic measures that will help prevent a rapid surge in agricultural commodity prices. [1 page]
Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (August 2012)Supreme Flour
A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of August 2012)
Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org
Dr. Steve Meyer - Profit Tracker 2015: Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Profit Tracker 2015: Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2015 Iowa Pork Congress, January 28-29, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-iowa-pork-congress
Grain Cash Markets Logistics & Freight Report.
Record-High non-commercial short position, corn price demand elasticity ( from ethanol, exports, feeds), On-Farm Storage and Ukraine have triggered a rally in Corn. What is next for our Grain Futures and Cash Markets
Economic Update - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc., from the 2015 Missouri Pork Expo, February 10 - 11, 2015, Columbia, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-missouri-pork-expo
A leading miller since the company was founded in 1919, over the years Grand Moulins in Paris has been able to diversify its activities and innovate to maximize customer satisfaction.
Family-owned Catalyst, formerly Pharm-Tech, custom formulates and manufactures feed and nutritional supplements for customers in the livestock, poultry, pet, wildlife and aquaculture industries. It operates five production plants, three in Idaho and two in Iowa. Its range of over 100 products includes digestive aids, mineral supplements and most recently Certified Organic blends and finished feeds.
This report provides in depth review of the market activities of ag commodities in the month of April. It also gives the outlook of the commodities covered.
JUST two months on from our last review, the mood in cereal markets has shifted markedly from bear to bull – for the short term at least. The over-riding influence has been events in the former Soviet Union, where the risk of political upheaval turning to military conflict cast a shadow over grain exports from this important supplying region.
Shenggan Fan, Director General of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) outlines five strategic measures that will help prevent a rapid surge in agricultural commodity prices. [1 page]
Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (August 2012)Supreme Flour
A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of August 2012)
Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org
Dr. Steve Meyer - Profit Tracker 2015: Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Profit Tracker 2015: Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2015 Iowa Pork Congress, January 28-29, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-iowa-pork-congress
Grain Cash Markets Logistics & Freight Report.
Record-High non-commercial short position, corn price demand elasticity ( from ethanol, exports, feeds), On-Farm Storage and Ukraine have triggered a rally in Corn. What is next for our Grain Futures and Cash Markets
Economic Update - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc., from the 2015 Missouri Pork Expo, February 10 - 11, 2015, Columbia, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-missouri-pork-expo
A leading miller since the company was founded in 1919, over the years Grand Moulins in Paris has been able to diversify its activities and innovate to maximize customer satisfaction.
Family-owned Catalyst, formerly Pharm-Tech, custom formulates and manufactures feed and nutritional supplements for customers in the livestock, poultry, pet, wildlife and aquaculture industries. It operates five production plants, three in Idaho and two in Iowa. Its range of over 100 products includes digestive aids, mineral supplements and most recently Certified Organic blends and finished feeds.
A consolidation of highly respected British brands E R & F Turner, Christy & Norris and Miracle Mills, Christy Turner Ltd is renowned for quality British engineering and innovation in the milling industry. With flaking mills operational around the globe, the leading UK engineering firm talks us through their top tips for increasing the longevity and performance of your flaking rolls.
When China discovered that they were losing a significant amount of harvested crop through poor storage, it was decided that something at a national level had to be done about it; that’s what is happening there today
Grain drying is an essential part of the grain management process that needs to be considered pre and post-harvest. Due to the steady drop in corn prices over the last few years, many farmers and handlers have held onto their grain in hopes to find a better profit in the future. Maintaining the moisture and the temperature of your grain as it is stored can heavily impact the length of time it can be stored; as well as its overall condition.
The long-awaited Panama Canal expansion opened earlier this Summer with a ceremonial ship passing through the waterway. Based on extensive research including more than 100 studies on the economic feasibility, market demand, environmental impact and other technical engineering aspects, the Panama Canal expansion involved the construction of a ‘Third Set of Locks’ that will now allow larger ships to pass through the famous canal.
Wholegrain Ingredient Producers EDME, based in England, has pioneered an innovative new category of ingredients. Michael Carr, Sales and Marketing Director of natural ingredient producer at EDME says, “We’ve identified a growing interest in sprouted foods and have developed a brand new product category to help bakers and food manufacturers meet that interest and demand.” Sprouted grains meet the demand for new wholegrain ingredients that are nutritious, soft and tender, as well as being more palatable and digestible.
With over a century of experience in the design, quality and installation of grain storage systems, Bentall Rowlands Storage Systems Limited is a leading UK manufacturer in complete storage and processing equipment for the agricultural and industrial markets.
Operating in 140 countries and boasting 90 service stations worldwide, Bühler has been at the vanguard of industrial process technologies and solutions for over 150 years. Contributing significantly to feeding the world’s ever-growing population, Bühler manufactures equipment for processing of maize, wheat, chocolate, rice, pasta and breakfast cereals globally. In fact, 65 percent of wheat milled around the globe is processed on Bühler grain mills and around 30 percent of global rice production is processed using Bühler equipment.
In 2015, an estimated 35,500 serious birth defects of the spine and brain were prevented because wheat and maize flours were fortified with folic acid, according to research published in July 2016.
As we know, Turkey is a developing country. What we might not know is that it accounts for over 20 percent of world’s flour trade in exports. Now supported by Konya Borsa, a new local market trading board, it is well positioned to accelerate both the means and ease of the county’s business operations for all customers, both domestic and international.
Last month, we outlined the new regulations that grain processors needed to be aware of. This included the new NFPA 652 and OSHA initiatives. This month we delve into the array of options available to control combustible dust. Grain processors need to be aware of the strengths and weaknesses of each before choosing the smartest approach.
Many in the milling and grain sector may be unaware that there is a significant new revenue stream available to progressive and forward-thinking mills. It focuses on the use of energy, and how by turning the power down for a relatively short period each year in line with National Grid’s and EirGrid’s requirements, companies can enjoy considerable and long-term financial rewards.
Joordens Zaden in Kessel, The Netherlands is an international specialist in the development and production of seed for green manure crops, forage crops and forage grasses. The seeds comply with the high quality requirements of ISTA and are strictly checked every week by external quality controllers from the Dutch General Inspection Service (NAK).
Calysta, the company developing and introducing a new protein source based on single-cell organisms - a bacterium called methylococcus – and destined for inclusion in fishfeeds, has built a ‘market introduction facility’ in Teesside, England, with production beginning in this last quarter of 2016.
For 2016/17 (July to June), Post/New total Mexican wheat production is forecast to increase to 3.9 million metric tons (MMT). This increase of approximately 3.7 percent assumes favourable weather conditions and normal yields in the key wheat areas of Northwest Mexico (Baja California and Sonora) for the 2015/16 autumn/winter crop cycle.
Prices on the benchmark grain and feed ingredient markets had been eroding further since our last review, several reaching new five and a to six-year lows. But the latest descent was much more gradual than in recent months and by mid-March, market leaders wheat, maize and soyabeans had all begun to show signs of bottoming out. The leading Chicago wheat futures
IT has been a mostly bearish period since our last review – thanks to some new record crop and stocks estimates for wheat and soyabeans and the chill economic wind blowing from China. The latter especially has unsettled global market sentiment, casting a shadow over the forward outlook for commodity demand – especially in the feed and bio-fuel sectors (depressing crude oil prices to new lows). It also seems to have outweighed, for now at least, the likelihood that US and CIS – possibly also South American maize supply has been over-rated – although, even if it is, there is probably still more than enough of the leading feed grain to meet all perceived demand, as discussed in more detail below. The overall impact of these events as we go to press has been to push prices to new five-year lows for US and EU wheat, 6½- year lows for soyabeans and to dampen ideas of a sustained recovery in the feed grain sector (maize prices have at least managed to stay above last September’s five-year lows but for how long?)
Forecasting prices even one year ahead can be a hazardous business. That applies especially to markets so dominated by that most unpredictable element of weather and, increasingly these days; the sometimes even more capricious influence of global economic trends – trade and GDP growth, currency volatility, the price of crude oil, etc.
Constantly rising wheat crop estimates, record large global stocks of cereals in total and mostly ‘yield-friendly’ weather in the Northern hemisphere have continued to erode grain prices over the past month, resulting in US wheat trading near 10-year lows.
In recent years, external factors such as poor weather have contributed to poor harvests, which have in turn resulted in an understandable level of crop uncertainty. However, the forecast figures for 2016-17 that were announced at the recent International Grain Conference have only previously been bettered once.
Soybean buyers worldwide are on a spending spree, restocking supplies and propping up prices. But that soon could come to an end. A Des Moines risk management consultant advises farmers to sell now because US$10-plus soybeans, while nothing to write home about, may look good in months to come.
On the 26 October this year, Milling and Grain magazine attended OCRIM’s 6th technical conference “Wheat, Flour and…” at its headquarters located in Cremona, home to violin extraordinaire Antonio Stradivari and arguably one of Northern Italy’s most picturesque historical cities. The annual event was aimed at clients, local residents, and friends in the worlds of industry, academia and politics.
Changes in flour quality are and will continue to be a problem for the bakery industry. Large amounts of grain are processed by the milling industry and many resources used to secure the flour produced have a consistent quality.
The Bakery Innovation Center (BIC) at the Bühler headquarters is now five years old. As a center for vocational training and further education for bakers and millers, it is very popular.
The issue of postharvest loss of grain in sub-Saharan Africa is extremely significant, both environmentally, economically, and in terms of the welfare of the farmers who grow it. Si-Low is a product designed to counteract this by providing an affordable way for smallholder farmers in the region to effectively store their crops for long periods of time. Si-Low aims to provide hermetic storage of grain for farmers close to the poverty line who currently cannot afford it.
Just on the outskirts of the Cotswold town of Chipping Campden, set amongst the Cotswold stone buildings, you will find the head offices of Campden BRI.
Binding, or adsorbing, specific mycotoxins to limit their negative effects in livestock is a well-established method for mycotoxin deactivation. While a large number of binder products containing clay minerals such as bentonites are commercially available, there is a certain amount of confusion in the market regarding claims authorised by the European Commission.
Recent studies have shown that at the current rate of growth, by 2050 the human population will have swelled to 9.5 billion. Recent FAO statistics have also shown that we do currently not have enough land set aside for cultivating crops to cope with this population surge.
NIR analysers are now available for use in all aspects of food production; right from ‘farm to factory.’ Australian company Next Instruments specialises in designing and manufacturing NIR analysers for use by farmers, grain traders, grain processors and food manufacturers. The challenge has been to design instrumentation that is powerful yet simple to operate and maintain.
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptxmy Pandit
Explore the world of the Taurus zodiac sign. Learn about their stability, determination, and appreciation for beauty. Discover how Taureans' grounded nature and hardworking mindset define their unique personality.
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfseoforlegalpillers
It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
As a business owner in Delaware, staying on top of your tax obligations is paramount, especially with the annual deadline for Delaware Franchise Tax looming on March 1. One such obligation is the annual Delaware Franchise Tax, which serves as a crucial requirement for maintaining your company’s legal standing within the state. While the prospect of handling tax matters may seem daunting, rest assured that the process can be straightforward with the right guidance. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll walk you through the steps of filing your Delaware Franchise Tax and provide insights to help you navigate the process effectively.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
HR recruiter services offer top talents to companies according to their specific needs. They handle all recruitment tasks from job posting to onboarding and help companies concentrate on their business growth. With their expertise and years of experience, they streamline the hiring process and save time and resources for the company.
Explore our most comprehensive guide on lookback analysis at SafePaaS, covering access governance and how it can transform modern ERP audits. Browse now!
1. 86 | September 2016 - Milling and Grain
With vast
speculation taking
over the commodities
sector since early
March giving
way to historical
vertical-like price
moves, there has
been a “race” to
try and matchup
“fundamental
reasons to justify” the
rally.
The other side of the story
“In all intellectual debates, both sides tend to be correct in what they affirm, and wrong in
what they deny.”
-John Stuart Mill
As “enlightened” as such statement by what Stanford University calls “the most influential
English speaking philosopher of the 19th century” is, one could easily make an argument that
when it comes to commodity market analysis the statement seems to be as useful as a bicycle to a
fish.
In the world of commodity analysis, there seems to be a constant attempt to “prove the
unprovable” on the part of the trade.
With vast speculation taking over the commodities sector since early March giving way to
historical vertical-like price moves, there has been a “race” to try and matchup “fundamental
reasons to justify” the rally. It seems as though even the best and brightest get caught in this game
of cat and mouse. Significant changes to South American soybean crop totals as well as intense
early year demand by the Chinese and now, more than ever, speculation over the potential for
drought-like weather conditions for the U.S. crop, have indeed provided some much-needed fuel to
the soybean market in Chicago.
These conditions have given way to heavy speculation about U.S. and South American balance
sheets, which has been exacerbated by the lack of significant data-points between late March and
early July, creating a true “free-for-all” in balance sheet estimates.
The dominant feature of this past month in many “insider” comments and analysis has been the
extrapolation of Chinese demand pace and of cuts to South American production with 15/16 and
16/17 U.S. soybean balance sheets. Two things are very interesting to note:
1: The trade seems ready to simply assume that U.S. yields will be, at best, trend. Many
analyses we have come across recently show yield scenarios going only down from 46-
46.5 bpa. Such is the power of the El Niño to La Niña effect in people’s psyches. Yes, the
weather has been drier than normal and hotter to much hotter than normal in parts of the U.S.
Midwest, however, it is indeed only June – and crop conditions in soybeans are at the highest
level ever for this time of the year.
2: The use of constant demand figures under different yield and total production scenarios. This
one is astounding as it completely throws out the basics of supply x demand law, assuming
demand for U.S. soybeans as completely inelastic.
Well… we beg to differ and as you can see by the attached table, doing our best to try to show
“both sides of the story.
Note that only yields nearly 10 percent below trend would seem sufficient to take soybean ending-
stocks in the United States near or below the 200 million bushel and 5 percent stock-to-use mark.
Such levels would still be around 2x the level of ending stocks in 2014/15, when soybean prices
peaked near $10.60. Yields near or above trend, even with unchanged soybean planted area,
would take stocks to much more comfortable and near historic levels of 400-500 million bushels
(translation: 400+ million bushel stocks do not inspire the need for rationing of supply through
higher prices).
“But you are using demand numbers that are too low given the cut in South American production
in 15/16 and the pace of Chinese demand!”
Ahhh, we were hoping you would make such comment.
We caution against extrapolating demand switches to the U.S. for the 16/17 crop year due to cuts
in 15/16 to the South American crop. One must keep in mind that by late February of 2016, Brazil
is locked and loaded to supply soybeans to the world. Furthermore, South American production
in 16/17 is likely to have a new record potential, even with the expected slight reduction in
By Pedro H Dejneka,
AGR Brasil, AgResource
MARKETS OUTLOOK
2. Argentinean area dedicated to soybeans.
AGR BRASIL currently sees the following for 16/17
production potential (in MMTs):
Brasil 100-110
Argentina 53-58
Paraguay 7-9
Others 6-8
Under such scenario, the ‘worst case’ figure (without
considering “black-swan” type weather events) would
be 166 – only 6 MMTs below last year’s all-time
record and in-line with this year`s expected production
of 165-169 MMTs.
The ‘best-case’ scenario would bring about production
of around 185 MMTs, surpassing last year’s record by
over 12 MMTs!
Even if Chinese demand next year swells to 87-90
MMTs, it is important to understand that South
America is here to stay when it comes to soybean
exports and that the U.S. and not Brazil or Argentina will be the
‘holder of stocks’ for the foreseeable future.
Although estimates of 1900 to 2000 million bushels of soybean
exports out of the U.S. for 16/17 are possible, they are only likely
under a scenario of serious stress to the 16/17 South American
crop. Otherwise, a range of 1700-1900 cannot be ruled out, which
in turn give way to the balance sheet scenarios here presented.
Bottom line: although it is important to consider the potential
effects of severely reduced yields and increased demand to U.S.
and world soybean balance sheets, it is also prudent to also
consider the other side of the story and the implications it too
could have on international prices. It is premature at this point to
assume “extreme” balance sheet scenarios for the 16/17 U.S. crop
year. U.S. stocks below 200 or above 500 million bushels are both
possible for next year, but both should be considered “outliers” at
the present time, until more is known about the 16/17 U.S. crop.
16.17 US SOY BALANCE SHEET
Under different weather/area scenarios
Soybeans Bad
Weather
Moderate
Weather
Favorable
Weather
Bad
Weather
Moderate
Weather
Favorable
Weather
AREA UNCHANGED INCREASED IN AREA
Planted 82.2 82.2 82.2 83 83.5 84.5
Harvested 81.4 81.4 81.4 82.2 82.7 83.7
Yield 43 46 48.5 43 46 48.5
Production 3,499 3,743 3,947 3,533 3,803 4,059
Carry -In 370 370 370 370 370 370
Imports 30 30 30 30 30 30
Total Supply 3,899 4,143 4,347 3,933 4,203 4,459
Crush 1,850 1,870 1,900 1,850 1,870 1,900
Exports 1,800 1,850 1,925 1,800 1,850 1,925
S+R 120 125 130 120 125 130
Total Use 3,770 3,845 3,955 3,770 3,845 3,955
Ending Stocks 129 298 392 163 358 504
Stock/Use Ratio 3.4% 7.8% 9.9% 4.3% 9.3% 12.7%
The future of feed mill technology is here today. Introducing the CU Dynamic pellet mill, facilitating an optimized
operation and production rate. The motor-operated roller adjustment represents more efficiency and real savings on
maintenance. The intelligent active roller slip control virtually eliminates downtime caused by roller slip: a major leap
forward in pellet mill technology. If you’re looking for an example of future-proof and state of the art technology from
Van Aarsen you need look no further than the CU Dynamic pellet mill. www.aarsen.com
Introducing a new generation of pellet mills,
with intelligent roller control.
The future today!
www.aarsen.com
2016-05-31, Grain & Feed Milling.indd 1 31-5-2016 10:55:13
Milling and Grain - September 2016 | 87