Market behavior research @ bec doms
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The document discusses different forms of market efficiency according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficiency based on what information is reflected in market prices. Weak-form tests whether past prices predict the future, semi-strong tests if public information is reflected, and strong tests if insider information provides advantages. The document also summarizes various empirical studies that have tested different forms of market efficiency through approaches like event studies and analyzing returns.
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Efficient capital markets
The document discusses the concept of efficient capital markets. It defines the different forms of market efficiency - weak, semi-strong, and strong - and examines the empirical evidence regarding whether markets exhibit these forms of efficiency. While some evidence supports semi-strong efficiency, behavioral challenges and limits to arbitrage suggest markets may not fully reflect all private information as required for strong form efficiency. The implications are that firms should expect to receive fair value for securities and cannot profit from fooling investors, while investors should only expect normal returns based on publicly available information.
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The document discusses the random walk theory and efficient market hypothesis. It defines the random walk theory as the idea that stock prices follow unpredictable and random paths, making it impossible to consistently outperform the market. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices instantly change to reflect all available public information, such that no investors can use information to earn above-average returns once transaction costs are considered. The document outlines different forms of the efficient market hypothesis based on the type of information reflected in stock prices and provides mixed evidence from empirical tests of the hypotheses.
Market behavior research @ bec doms
The document discusses different forms of market efficiency according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficiency based on what information is reflected in market prices. Weak-form tests whether past prices predict future prices, semi-strong tests whether public information is reflected, and strong tests whether insider information provides advantages. The document also discusses methods for testing each form of efficiency through analyses like event studies and anomalies. Overall, evidence supports weak and semi-strong forms but not strong form efficiency.
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The beta coefficient is a form of measurement for volatile movement in an individual stock, as well as systematic risk in comparison to comparable stocks or the wider market.
Beta is a representation of the trajectory output of the slop calculated through regression analysis of a particular stock vs sector vs wider market. http://blugm.com
Can Individual Investors Beat the Market?
We document strong persistence in the performance of trades of individual investors. The correlation of the risk-adjusted performance of an individual across sample periods is about 10 percent. Investors classified in the top performance decile in the first half of our sample subsequently outperform those in the bottom decile by about 8 percent per year. Strategies long in firms purchased by previously successful investors and short in firms purchased by previously unsuccessful investors earn abnormal returns of 5 basis points per day. These returns are not confined to small stocks nor to stocks in which the investors are likely to have inside information. Our results suggest that skillful individual investors exploit market inefficiencies to earn abnormal profits, above and beyond any profits available from well-known strategies based upon size, value, or momentum.
The paper is available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=364000
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The document discusses the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Some key points:
- EMH proposes that market prices fully reflect all available information and investors cannot consistently earn abnormal returns. It originated from the Random Walk Hypothesis.
- There are three forms of EMH (weak, semi-strong, strong) based on the information reflected in prices. Research initially supported weak and semi-strong forms but questioned strong form.
- Over time research identified anomalies like momentum and mean reversion that appear to allow abnormal returns, bringing EMH into question. Behavioral finance emerged examining psychological factors.
- While still debated, EMH is no longer considered the sole determinant of market behavior.
Multi factor models in asset pricing
This document summarizes critiques of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and presents alternative models. It discusses empirical studies from the 1980s and 1990s that found variables other than beta help explain stock returns, contradicting CAPM. Fama and French's 1992 study found firm size and book-to-market ratio better predict returns than beta. Their three-factor model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory were proposed as alternatives to CAPM. Overall, the document outlines major empirical challenges to CAPM and influential models that improved on its ability to explain stock returns.
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The document discusses the random walk theory and efficient market hypothesis. It defines the random walk theory as the idea that stock prices follow unpredictable and random paths, making it impossible to consistently outperform the market. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices instantly change to reflect all available public information, such that no investors can use information to earn above-average returns once transaction costs are considered. The document outlines different forms of the efficient market hypothesis based on the type of information reflected in stock prices and provides mixed evidence from empirical tests of the hypotheses.
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The document discusses different forms of market efficiency according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficiency based on what information is reflected in market prices. Weak-form tests whether past prices predict future prices, semi-strong tests whether public information is reflected, and strong tests whether insider information provides advantages. The document also discusses methods for testing each form of efficiency through analyses like event studies and anomalies. Overall, evidence supports weak and semi-strong forms but not strong form efficiency.
The beta coefficient - blugm.com
The beta coefficient is a form of measurement for volatile movement in an individual stock, as well as systematic risk in comparison to comparable stocks or the wider market.
Beta is a representation of the trajectory output of the slop calculated through regression analysis of a particular stock vs sector vs wider market. http://blugm.com
Can Individual Investors Beat the Market?
We document strong persistence in the performance of trades of individual investors. The correlation of the risk-adjusted performance of an individual across sample periods is about 10 percent. Investors classified in the top performance decile in the first half of our sample subsequently outperform those in the bottom decile by about 8 percent per year. Strategies long in firms purchased by previously successful investors and short in firms purchased by previously unsuccessful investors earn abnormal returns of 5 basis points per day. These returns are not confined to small stocks nor to stocks in which the investors are likely to have inside information. Our results suggest that skillful individual investors exploit market inefficiencies to earn abnormal profits, above and beyond any profits available from well-known strategies based upon size, value, or momentum.
The paper is available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=364000
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The document discusses the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Some key points:
- EMH proposes that market prices fully reflect all available information and investors cannot consistently earn abnormal returns. It originated from the Random Walk Hypothesis.
- There are three forms of EMH (weak, semi-strong, strong) based on the information reflected in prices. Research initially supported weak and semi-strong forms but questioned strong form.
- Over time research identified anomalies like momentum and mean reversion that appear to allow abnormal returns, bringing EMH into question. Behavioral finance emerged examining psychological factors.
- While still debated, EMH is no longer considered the sole determinant of market behavior.
Multi factor models in asset pricing
This document summarizes critiques of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and presents alternative models. It discusses empirical studies from the 1980s and 1990s that found variables other than beta help explain stock returns, contradicting CAPM. Fama and French's 1992 study found firm size and book-to-market ratio better predict returns than beta. Their three-factor model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory were proposed as alternatives to CAPM. Overall, the document outlines major empirical challenges to CAPM and influential models that improved on its ability to explain stock returns.
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The document discusses different types of risks that can be associated with holding securities in a portfolio. It defines systematic and unsystematic risks, with unsystematic risks being unique to a specific firm or industry and systematic risks affecting the entire market. It also discusses beta and how it is a measure of the volatility or systematic risk of a security compared to the market as a whole. Beta is used in the capital asset pricing model to calculate expected returns based on risk.
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- The Fama-French three-factor model as another improvement over the single-factor CAPM
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3) A strategy relying on price shocks is inappropriate for equity pairs but can profitably trade index pairs if risks are managed.
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The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis and different levels of market efficiency. It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficient markets and summarizes various studies that tested these forms. Specifically, about half of studies support the weak form, while several reject the semi-strong and strong forms. This implies markets may not fully reflect all private and public information. The document also discusses anomalies, behavioral finance explanations for market inefficiencies, and critics of the behavioral perspective.
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FellowBuddy.com is an innovative platform that brings students together to share notes, exam papers, study guides, project reports and presentation for upcoming exams.
We connect Students who have an understanding of course material with Students who need help.
Benefits:-
# Students can catch up on notes they missed because of an absence.
# Underachievers can find peer developed notes that break down lecture and study material in a way that they can understand
# Students can earn better grades, save time and study effectively
Our Vision & Mission – Simplifying Students Life
Our Belief – “The great breakthrough in your life comes when you realize it, that you can learn anything you need to learn; to accomplish any goal that you have set for yourself. This means there are no limits on what you can be, have or do.”
Like Us - https://www.facebook.com/FellowBuddycom
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- Portfolio theory concepts such as the efficient frontier and capital market line
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[1] Momentum is more pronounced in a confident market where investors incorporate new information into prices more slowly.
[2] Only idiosyncratic shocks, not systematic shocks, can produce momentum, as systematic shocks do not affect cross-sectional stock returns.
[3] Empirical evidence supports the predictions, finding momentum is greater when volatility (and uncertainty) is lower, and when stocks experience larger idiosyncratic shocks.
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The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) was developed by William Sharpe in 1970 to calculate the expected return of an asset based on its risk. It distinguishes between systematic risk that cannot be diversified away, such as market risk, and unsystematic risk that can be reduced through diversification. The CAPM formula states that the expected return of an asset is equal to the risk-free rate plus a risk premium that is proportional to the asset's systematic risk or beta. Beta measures how volatile an asset's returns are relative to the overall market. The CAPM makes simplifying assumptions about investors and markets. While widely used, some argue it may not perfectly predict returns in practice.
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The document discusses pair trading strategies using equities, ETFs, and stock indices. It finds that:
1) A mean-reversion strategy that recalibrates hedge ratios and means over rolling windows outperforms a static strategy for equity pairs.
2) Pair trading performance is more consistent for ETFs and indices than for individual equities.
3) A strategy relying on price shocks is inappropriate for equity pairs but can profitably trade index pairs if risks are managed.
Daniel LUI
Lui Ho Yin from Lancaster University ranked 5th in the trading competition with a portfolio return of 34.29% (HKD 171.4K). His portfolio had the lowest maximum drawdown of -5.05% and a high Sharpe ratio of 4.81, ranking 4th. He employed a strategy of swing trading and news trading highly volatile US stocks and ETFs across different sectors like healthcare, technology, and cryptocurrencies. Risk management techniques included taking profits at resistance levels and using strict stop-losses.
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The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis and different levels of market efficiency. It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficient markets and summarizes various studies that tested these forms. Specifically, about half of studies support the weak form, while several reject the semi-strong and strong forms. This implies markets may not fully reflect all private and public information. The document also discusses anomalies, behavioral finance explanations for market inefficiencies, and critics of the behavioral perspective.
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Presentation at the FAC/IDS food price workshop, February 2012 http://www.future-agricultures.org/events/food-price-volatility
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We examine how investor preferences and beliefs affect trading in relation to past gains and losses. The probability of selling as a function of profit is V-shaped; at short holding periods, investors are more likely to sell big losers than small ones. There is little evidence of an upward jump in selling at zero profits. These findings provide no clear indication that realization preference explains trading. Furthermore, the disposition effect is not driven by a simple direct preference for selling a stock by virtue of having a gain versus loss. Trading based on belief revisions can potentially explain these findings.
Paper available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1876594
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This document provides an overview of Chapter 6 from the textbook "Financial Markets and Institutions". It discusses the efficient market hypothesis which proposes that financial markets are informationally efficient and security prices fully reflect all available information. The chapter preview outlines topics to be covered including expectations in financial markets, the EMH framework, and empirical evidence evaluating market efficiency. Several sections then provide details on the rationale for the EMH, examples of how it indicates pricing should occur, and evidence both supporting and contradicting the hypothesis. In particular, it notes mixed findings from studies on whether security prices quickly incorporate new public information.
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The document summarizes a presentation on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). It includes an introduction to CAPM, objectives to understand the relationship between risk and return and validate the CAPM model through literature review. Research questions on whether risk and return are related and if CAPM is valid. The methodology section describes using Markowitz's model, the three-factor model, and regression analysis. While some studies have found issues, the conclusion is that CAPM remains the best option for measuring expected returns though could be improved. Recommendations include using daily data for betas and carefully selecting risk-free rates and market returns.
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Michael Porter's Five Forces Model
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Porter’s five forces
The document discusses Porter's five forces model as it applies to the apparel industry. It analyzes the competitive intensity and profitability of the industry by looking at the barriers to entry, power of suppliers and buyers, threat of substitutes, and rivalry among existing competitors. The summary is:
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The reason why should undergo into the arbitrage trading is very simple and its because its risk free investment option. Though it contains certain risk if one fails to follow the protocol define for Arbitrage Trading. Usually Arbitrage is risk free until and unless there is no financial crises.
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