The document provides an overview of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and evidence related to it.
The EMH states that security prices fully reflect all available information. Empirical evidence is mixed but generally supports the idea. Studies show investment analysts and funds cannot consistently beat the market. Stock prices also reflect publicly available information.
However, some evidence contradicts the EMH. Small firms have abnormally high returns, and returns are higher in January. Market prices also sometimes overreact or are excessively volatile. New information is also not always immediately reflected in stock prices.
Overall, the EMH is a reasonable starting point but does not tell the whole story about financial markets. Behavioral factors and market
Chapter 06_ Are Financial Markets Efficient?Rusman Mukhlis
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) which states that financial markets are efficient and security prices reflect all available information. It provides an overview of the basic reasoning behind the EMH and examines empirical evidence that both supports and challenges the hypothesis. The evidence is mixed but generally supports the idea that markets are efficient.
Discuss the differences between weak form, semi-strong form and strong form capital market efficiency, and critically evaluate the significance of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the financial manager, using examples or cases in real-life.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which states that stock prices already reflect all available public information, making it impossible for investors to outperform the market through strategies based on historical prices, economic news, or other public data. There are three forms of the EMH - weak, semi-strong, and strong - differing in the type of information believed to be reflected in prices. While several studies have found evidence supporting the EMH, others have found anomalies like value and small firm effects that appear to allow above-market returns. The validity of the EMH remains controversial.
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and Insider TradingPrashant Shrestha
The document discusses the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and different forms of market efficiency as it relates to insider trading. It provides an overview of the EMH, including its historical development and Fama's definitions of weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of market efficiency. Weak-form refers to efficiency based on past prices or returns. Semi-strong incorporates all public information. Strong-form suggests all private information is also reflected in prices. Evidence against full market efficiency is also presented.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) which argues that stock prices reflect all available information. It defines three forms of market efficiency - weak, semi-strong, and strong - based on the types of information reflected in stock prices. The weak form states that prices reflect all historical price data, while the semi-strong form argues that prices immediately incorporate publicly available information. Empirical tests provide mixed support for the different forms of the EMH. The document also discusses potential market inefficiencies and anomalies that appear to contradict the EMH, such as the size effect and January effect.
- Market forces of supply and demand determine an equilibrium price where the two curves intersect. At this price, the market is in a balanced state.
- Changes in non-price factors can shift the supply or demand curves, disrupting the equilibrium. However, market forces will bring supply and demand back into balance at a new equilibrium price.
- The interaction of supply, demand, and price is a fundamental concept for investors and traders to understand, as it underlies identifying profitable trades and investments. Price movements reflect changes in supply and demand.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis which states that financial markets are efficient and security prices reflect all available information. It provides evidence that markets are at least semi-strong form efficient in that publicly available information does not allow consistently beating the market. The hypothesis implies that no investments are better than others and security prices accurately reflect risk and return. While markets quickly react to new information, predicting short-term movements is very difficult. Overall, the evidence supports some level of market efficiency.
Chapter 06_ Are Financial Markets Efficient?Rusman Mukhlis
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) which states that financial markets are efficient and security prices reflect all available information. It provides an overview of the basic reasoning behind the EMH and examines empirical evidence that both supports and challenges the hypothesis. The evidence is mixed but generally supports the idea that markets are efficient.
Discuss the differences between weak form, semi-strong form and strong form capital market efficiency, and critically evaluate the significance of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the financial manager, using examples or cases in real-life.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which states that stock prices already reflect all available public information, making it impossible for investors to outperform the market through strategies based on historical prices, economic news, or other public data. There are three forms of the EMH - weak, semi-strong, and strong - differing in the type of information believed to be reflected in prices. While several studies have found evidence supporting the EMH, others have found anomalies like value and small firm effects that appear to allow above-market returns. The validity of the EMH remains controversial.
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and Insider TradingPrashant Shrestha
The document discusses the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and different forms of market efficiency as it relates to insider trading. It provides an overview of the EMH, including its historical development and Fama's definitions of weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of market efficiency. Weak-form refers to efficiency based on past prices or returns. Semi-strong incorporates all public information. Strong-form suggests all private information is also reflected in prices. Evidence against full market efficiency is also presented.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) which argues that stock prices reflect all available information. It defines three forms of market efficiency - weak, semi-strong, and strong - based on the types of information reflected in stock prices. The weak form states that prices reflect all historical price data, while the semi-strong form argues that prices immediately incorporate publicly available information. Empirical tests provide mixed support for the different forms of the EMH. The document also discusses potential market inefficiencies and anomalies that appear to contradict the EMH, such as the size effect and January effect.
- Market forces of supply and demand determine an equilibrium price where the two curves intersect. At this price, the market is in a balanced state.
- Changes in non-price factors can shift the supply or demand curves, disrupting the equilibrium. However, market forces will bring supply and demand back into balance at a new equilibrium price.
- The interaction of supply, demand, and price is a fundamental concept for investors and traders to understand, as it underlies identifying profitable trades and investments. Price movements reflect changes in supply and demand.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis which states that financial markets are efficient and security prices reflect all available information. It provides evidence that markets are at least semi-strong form efficient in that publicly available information does not allow consistently beating the market. The hypothesis implies that no investments are better than others and security prices accurately reflect risk and return. While markets quickly react to new information, predicting short-term movements is very difficult. Overall, the evidence supports some level of market efficiency.
111 PART III ONE OF THE early applications of .docxtarifarmarie
111
PA
R
T III
ONE OF THE early applications of comput-
ers in economics in the 1950s was to analyze
economic time series. Business cycle theo-
rists felt that tracing the evolution of several
economic variables over time would clarify
and predict the progress of the economy
through boom and bust periods. A natural
candidate for analysis was the behavior of
stock market prices over time. Assuming that
stock prices reflect the prospects of the firm,
recurrent patterns of peaks and troughs in
economic performance ought to show up in
those prices.
Maurice Kendall examined this proposi-
tion in 1953. 1 He found to his great surprise
that he could identify no predictable pat-
terns in stock prices. Prices seemed to evolve
randomly. They were as likely to go up as
they were to go down on any particular day,
regardless of past performance. The data pro-
vided no way to predict price movements.
At first blush, Kendall’s results were dis-
turbing to some financial economists. They
seemed to imply that the stock market is
dominated by erratic market psychology, or
“animal spirits”—that it follows no logical
rules. In short, the results appeared to con-
firm the irrationality of the market. On fur-
ther reflection, however, economists came to
reverse their interpretation of Kendall’s study.
It soon became apparent that random
price movements indicated a well-functioning
or efficient market, not an irrational one.
In this chapter we explore the reasoning
behind what may seem a surprising conclu-
sion. We show how competition among ana-
lysts leads naturally to market efficiency, and
we examine the implications of the efficient
market hypothesis for investment policy. We
also consider empirical evidence that sup-
ports and contradicts the notion of market
efficiency.
The Efficient Market
Hypothesis
CHAPTER ELEVEN
1 Maurice Kendall, “The Analysis of Economic Time Series, Part I: Prices,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 96 (1953).
bod61671_ch11_349-387.indd 349bod61671_ch11_349-387.indd 349 7/17/13 3:41 PM7/17/13 3:41 PM
Final PDF to printer
02/27/2019 - RS0000000000000000000001583532 - Investments
350 P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets
11.1 Random Walks and the Efficient Market
Hypothesis
Suppose Kendall had discovered that stock price changes are predictable. What a gold mine
this would have been. If they could use Kendall’s equations to predict stock prices, inves-
tors would reap unending profits simply by purchasing stocks that the computer model
implied were about to increase in price and by selling those stocks about to fall in price.
A moment’s reflection should be enough to convince yourself that this situation could
not persist for long. For example, suppose that the model predicts with great confidence
that XYZ stock price, currently at $100 per share, will rise dramatically in 3 days to $110.
What would all investors with access to th.
The document discusses different forms of market efficiency according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficiency based on what information is reflected in market prices. Weak-form tests whether past prices predict future prices, semi-strong tests whether public information is reflected, and strong tests whether insider information provides advantages. The document also discusses methods for testing each form of efficiency through analyses like event studies and anomalies. Overall, evidence supports weak and semi-strong forms but not strong form efficiency.
The document discusses different forms of market efficiency according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficiency based on what information is reflected in market prices. Weak-form efficiency means prices reflect all historical price information, semi-strong means they reflect all public information, and strong form means they reflect all public and private information. The document summarizes various studies and evidence related to testing each form of efficiency through analyses of market anomalies, event studies, and performance of professional investors.
The document discusses different forms of market efficiency according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficiency based on what information is reflected in market prices. Weak-form tests whether past prices predict the future, semi-strong tests if public information is reflected, and strong tests if insider information provides advantages. The document also summarizes various empirical studies that have tested different forms of market efficiency through approaches like event studies and analyzing returns.
The document discusses market efficiency and the efficient market hypothesis. It defines market efficiency as prices reflecting all relevant financial information, so there are equal opportunities for buyers and sellers. The efficient market hypothesis states that stock prices instantly change to reflect new public information, making it impossible for investors to consistently earn above-average returns. The hypothesis is criticized for not explaining market bubbles that have occurred. The document also explains the weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of market efficiency and provides examples to illustrate market efficiency.
Efficient market Hypothesis that explains the Capital asset pricing modelDr Yogita Wagh
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that stock prices already reflect all known information and that it is impossible for investors to outperform the market over time. There are three forms of the EMH - weak, semi-strong, and strong - with each incorporating more types of information. Most evidence supports the weak and semi-strong forms, indicating that technical and fundamental analysis do not reliably beat the market. If markets are efficient, the optimal investment strategy is a passive, diversified approach rather than trying to pick individual stocks.
There are three main forms of market efficiency:
1) Weak form - Prices reflect all past price information. Technical analysis is not useful.
2) Semi-strong form - Prices reflect all public information. Fundamental analysis is not useful.
3) Strong form - Prices reflect all public and private information. No analysis is useful.
The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is a multi-factor model that does not rely on a market portfolio like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The APT allows for multiple factors that influence returns while the CAPM only considers systematic risk relative to the market.
Technical indicators like moving averages and oscillators
Chapter 6 Financial markets and institutions.pdfasde13
This document provides an overview of the efficient market hypothesis. It discusses key concepts like expectations being reflected in asset prices and the rationale that all unexploited profit opportunities are eliminated in an efficient market. Evidence for and against the hypothesis is presented, such as investment analysts not consistently beating the market or anomalies like the small firm effect. The implications of the efficient market hypothesis for investors are explored, such as being skeptical of hot tips and pursuing a buy-and-hold strategy.
10.Efficient Markets Hypothesis Clarke The Efficient Markets HypothesisNicole Heredia
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which proposes that stock prices instantly reflect all available information and that it is impossible for investors to consistently outperform the overall market. It describes three versions of the EMH based on the type of information reflected in prices: weak form reflects past prices; semi-strong form reflects all public information; strong form reflects all public and private information. The key implication is that market prices should be trusted as they incorporate all known information, so securities are fairly priced on average. While prices are rational, changes are expected to be random and unpredictable.
: Security and Portfolio Analysis :Efficient market theoryRahulKaushik108
Key Concepts of Efficient market theory: Very Lucid presentation , very Useful for MBA student to understand the Concepts of Efficient Market theory( Random walk hypotheses ) .The key idea of the hypotheses is" no one can efficiently out predict the market" or in other terms, technical analysis or fundamental analysis can not beat "the naive buy and hold strategy".
Fundamental and Technical Analysis with The Global Financial Crisi.docxbudbarber38650
Fundamental and Technical Analysis with The Global Financial Crisis
The Global Financial Crisis has been discussed more than any other economic event. This affair has been one of the most negative episodes in history due to its impact on the world’s economies and on such a very large population of its people. The causes of the Global Financial Crisis have been attributed to a variety of factors. Fundamental and technical analyses, in parallel importance, are two of those contributing factors. In this analyses, each analysis participator attempts to prove the usefulness of his or her principle, especially after the Global Financial Crisis because people want to be clarified what leaded them to that crisis. Both fundamental and technical analyses seek to identify future prices of stocks on the stock market and which one was responsible for the Global Financial Crisis. This essay will provide the overview of the Global Financial Crisis and mainly focusing on the reasons why fundamental analysis is not literally responsible for the Global Financial Crisis.
Fundamental analysis is the investigation of obvious and unobservable economic factors that may have an impact on the operations of a company. Like other types of analysis, it aims to predict the future prices of stocks. It also identifies the expansion of an economy and estimates which stocks are undervalued and which are expected to grow (Sharma and Preeti 2009). Kothari (2001) explains that according to fundamental analysis, a firm’s value calculated from engaging financial reports for individual companies with economic factors that may influence that company. Fundamental analysis generates this result by looking at companies’ financial statements, announcements and other available resources. Fundamentally analyzing the company’s information and examining its economic data leads often to the right prediction about stocks in the future (Abarbanell and Bushee 1997). However, Waldron and Seng (2005) believe that the purpose of fundamental analysis is a “reduction of risk in decision making”. They disprove of the idea that abnormal returns cannot be continuously gained.
It is argued that fundamental analysis is a means of gaining money from a sinuous channel rather than from a straightforward channel, as stated by Penman (cited in Waldron and Seng 2005). Although, there is no single method of fundamental analysis, according to (Sharma and Preeti 2009), fundamental analysis is made up of two processes: distinguishing between mature and young firms and studying shares that are expected to grow. There are two common methods for conducting fundamental analysis: a "top down" strategy and a "bottom up" strategy. A “top down” strategy is a methodology of analyzing company’s operations and its expected future activities then moving to an analysis of the entire macroeconomic of the country in which that company operates. Conversely, a “bottom down” strategy starts from the opposite end, narrowly analyzi.
According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and that the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.
This document summarizes a statistical arbitrage strategy that evaluates mean reversion in stock prices over time. It describes the strategy's assumptions that stock prices temporarily diverge from their equilibrium relative to the market before reverting. The experiment uses S&P 500 stock data to calculate daily returns, correlations, betas and residuals over rolling 60-day windows. When residuals exceed +/-2 standard deviations, positions are taken assuming reversion will occur. While backtested returns are appealing, live trading realities like transaction costs and limited share availability would likely reduce profits versus this theoretical analysis.
Arbitrage pricing theory & Efficient market hypothesisHari Ram
Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a multi-factor asset pricing model based on the idea that an asset's returns can be predicted using the linear relationship between the asset's expected return and a number of macroeconomic variables that capture systematic risk.
This document presents a model of market momentum. The model shows that:
[1] Momentum is more pronounced in a confident market where investors incorporate new information into prices more slowly.
[2] Only idiosyncratic shocks, not systematic shocks, can produce momentum, as systematic shocks do not affect cross-sectional stock returns.
[3] Empirical evidence supports the predictions, finding momentum is greater when volatility (and uncertainty) is lower, and when stocks experience larger idiosyncratic shocks.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that current stock prices fully reflect all available information and it is difficult to outperform the market consistently. It describes the three forms of market efficiency - weak, semi-strong, and strong - based on the types of information reflected in prices. The document also addresses some common misconceptions about the EMH, such as claims that successful investors disprove it or that analysis is pointless. Overall, the EMH asserts that markets are generally efficient but not perfectly so, and some investors can outperform by chance.
This document summarizes a study that examines the stock price reaction to dividend announcements in the Nepalese stock market. The study analyzes 139 dividend announcements between 2000-2011, categorizing them as dividend initiations, increases, decreases, or no changes. The study tests the hypotheses that dividend changes will be associated with subsequent stock price movements in the same direction, and that firm-specific factors may influence the stock price reaction. Event study methodology is used to analyze abnormal stock returns around the announcement dates. Preliminary results found higher positive abnormal returns for dividend initiations and increases, and higher negative returns for decreases. The study aims to test the semi-strong form of market efficiency and the dividend signaling hypothesis in the Nepalese market
My investment planning lecture at Griffiths Universityklublok
The document discusses different types of market efficiencies as defined by the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). EMH suggests that share prices reflect all available public information and that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market. There are varying degrees of market efficiency including weak form, semi-strong form, and strong form. Weak form suggests historical prices cannot predict future performance, semi-strong form suggests prices adjust rapidly to new public information, and strong form suggests prices reflect all public and private information. Evidence both supports and contradicts EMH. Behavioral finance also examines how investor psychology can cause market inefficiencies.
According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and that the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.
[2 Session] TA controversis, Indicator, divergence, 9 rule for Divergence [29...Md. Ahsan Ullah Raju
The document discusses several concepts related to financial markets and analysis, including:
1. The efficient market hypothesis asserts that markets are informationally efficient such that one cannot consistently achieve above-market returns given publicly available information. There are weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of this hypothesis.
2. Other concepts discussed include the random walk hypothesis, general equilibrium theory, Nash equilibrium, reflexivity theory, and the boom-bust model of market cycles.
3. Technical analysis indicators like Bollinger bands, MACD, RSI, ADX, and divergence patterns are explained in the context of identifying market trends and overbought/oversold conditions.
At Techbox Square, in Singapore, we're not just creative web designers and developers, we're the driving force behind your brand identity. Contact us today.
111 PART III ONE OF THE early applications of .docxtarifarmarie
111
PA
R
T III
ONE OF THE early applications of comput-
ers in economics in the 1950s was to analyze
economic time series. Business cycle theo-
rists felt that tracing the evolution of several
economic variables over time would clarify
and predict the progress of the economy
through boom and bust periods. A natural
candidate for analysis was the behavior of
stock market prices over time. Assuming that
stock prices reflect the prospects of the firm,
recurrent patterns of peaks and troughs in
economic performance ought to show up in
those prices.
Maurice Kendall examined this proposi-
tion in 1953. 1 He found to his great surprise
that he could identify no predictable pat-
terns in stock prices. Prices seemed to evolve
randomly. They were as likely to go up as
they were to go down on any particular day,
regardless of past performance. The data pro-
vided no way to predict price movements.
At first blush, Kendall’s results were dis-
turbing to some financial economists. They
seemed to imply that the stock market is
dominated by erratic market psychology, or
“animal spirits”—that it follows no logical
rules. In short, the results appeared to con-
firm the irrationality of the market. On fur-
ther reflection, however, economists came to
reverse their interpretation of Kendall’s study.
It soon became apparent that random
price movements indicated a well-functioning
or efficient market, not an irrational one.
In this chapter we explore the reasoning
behind what may seem a surprising conclu-
sion. We show how competition among ana-
lysts leads naturally to market efficiency, and
we examine the implications of the efficient
market hypothesis for investment policy. We
also consider empirical evidence that sup-
ports and contradicts the notion of market
efficiency.
The Efficient Market
Hypothesis
CHAPTER ELEVEN
1 Maurice Kendall, “The Analysis of Economic Time Series, Part I: Prices,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 96 (1953).
bod61671_ch11_349-387.indd 349bod61671_ch11_349-387.indd 349 7/17/13 3:41 PM7/17/13 3:41 PM
Final PDF to printer
02/27/2019 - RS0000000000000000000001583532 - Investments
350 P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets
11.1 Random Walks and the Efficient Market
Hypothesis
Suppose Kendall had discovered that stock price changes are predictable. What a gold mine
this would have been. If they could use Kendall’s equations to predict stock prices, inves-
tors would reap unending profits simply by purchasing stocks that the computer model
implied were about to increase in price and by selling those stocks about to fall in price.
A moment’s reflection should be enough to convince yourself that this situation could
not persist for long. For example, suppose that the model predicts with great confidence
that XYZ stock price, currently at $100 per share, will rise dramatically in 3 days to $110.
What would all investors with access to th.
The document discusses different forms of market efficiency according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficiency based on what information is reflected in market prices. Weak-form tests whether past prices predict future prices, semi-strong tests whether public information is reflected, and strong tests whether insider information provides advantages. The document also discusses methods for testing each form of efficiency through analyses like event studies and anomalies. Overall, evidence supports weak and semi-strong forms but not strong form efficiency.
The document discusses different forms of market efficiency according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficiency based on what information is reflected in market prices. Weak-form efficiency means prices reflect all historical price information, semi-strong means they reflect all public information, and strong form means they reflect all public and private information. The document summarizes various studies and evidence related to testing each form of efficiency through analyses of market anomalies, event studies, and performance of professional investors.
The document discusses different forms of market efficiency according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It defines weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of efficiency based on what information is reflected in market prices. Weak-form tests whether past prices predict the future, semi-strong tests if public information is reflected, and strong tests if insider information provides advantages. The document also summarizes various empirical studies that have tested different forms of market efficiency through approaches like event studies and analyzing returns.
The document discusses market efficiency and the efficient market hypothesis. It defines market efficiency as prices reflecting all relevant financial information, so there are equal opportunities for buyers and sellers. The efficient market hypothesis states that stock prices instantly change to reflect new public information, making it impossible for investors to consistently earn above-average returns. The hypothesis is criticized for not explaining market bubbles that have occurred. The document also explains the weak, semi-strong, and strong forms of market efficiency and provides examples to illustrate market efficiency.
Efficient market Hypothesis that explains the Capital asset pricing modelDr Yogita Wagh
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that stock prices already reflect all known information and that it is impossible for investors to outperform the market over time. There are three forms of the EMH - weak, semi-strong, and strong - with each incorporating more types of information. Most evidence supports the weak and semi-strong forms, indicating that technical and fundamental analysis do not reliably beat the market. If markets are efficient, the optimal investment strategy is a passive, diversified approach rather than trying to pick individual stocks.
There are three main forms of market efficiency:
1) Weak form - Prices reflect all past price information. Technical analysis is not useful.
2) Semi-strong form - Prices reflect all public information. Fundamental analysis is not useful.
3) Strong form - Prices reflect all public and private information. No analysis is useful.
The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is a multi-factor model that does not rely on a market portfolio like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The APT allows for multiple factors that influence returns while the CAPM only considers systematic risk relative to the market.
Technical indicators like moving averages and oscillators
Chapter 6 Financial markets and institutions.pdfasde13
This document provides an overview of the efficient market hypothesis. It discusses key concepts like expectations being reflected in asset prices and the rationale that all unexploited profit opportunities are eliminated in an efficient market. Evidence for and against the hypothesis is presented, such as investment analysts not consistently beating the market or anomalies like the small firm effect. The implications of the efficient market hypothesis for investors are explored, such as being skeptical of hot tips and pursuing a buy-and-hold strategy.
10.Efficient Markets Hypothesis Clarke The Efficient Markets HypothesisNicole Heredia
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which proposes that stock prices instantly reflect all available information and that it is impossible for investors to consistently outperform the overall market. It describes three versions of the EMH based on the type of information reflected in prices: weak form reflects past prices; semi-strong form reflects all public information; strong form reflects all public and private information. The key implication is that market prices should be trusted as they incorporate all known information, so securities are fairly priced on average. While prices are rational, changes are expected to be random and unpredictable.
: Security and Portfolio Analysis :Efficient market theoryRahulKaushik108
Key Concepts of Efficient market theory: Very Lucid presentation , very Useful for MBA student to understand the Concepts of Efficient Market theory( Random walk hypotheses ) .The key idea of the hypotheses is" no one can efficiently out predict the market" or in other terms, technical analysis or fundamental analysis can not beat "the naive buy and hold strategy".
Fundamental and Technical Analysis with The Global Financial Crisi.docxbudbarber38650
Fundamental and Technical Analysis with The Global Financial Crisis
The Global Financial Crisis has been discussed more than any other economic event. This affair has been one of the most negative episodes in history due to its impact on the world’s economies and on such a very large population of its people. The causes of the Global Financial Crisis have been attributed to a variety of factors. Fundamental and technical analyses, in parallel importance, are two of those contributing factors. In this analyses, each analysis participator attempts to prove the usefulness of his or her principle, especially after the Global Financial Crisis because people want to be clarified what leaded them to that crisis. Both fundamental and technical analyses seek to identify future prices of stocks on the stock market and which one was responsible for the Global Financial Crisis. This essay will provide the overview of the Global Financial Crisis and mainly focusing on the reasons why fundamental analysis is not literally responsible for the Global Financial Crisis.
Fundamental analysis is the investigation of obvious and unobservable economic factors that may have an impact on the operations of a company. Like other types of analysis, it aims to predict the future prices of stocks. It also identifies the expansion of an economy and estimates which stocks are undervalued and which are expected to grow (Sharma and Preeti 2009). Kothari (2001) explains that according to fundamental analysis, a firm’s value calculated from engaging financial reports for individual companies with economic factors that may influence that company. Fundamental analysis generates this result by looking at companies’ financial statements, announcements and other available resources. Fundamentally analyzing the company’s information and examining its economic data leads often to the right prediction about stocks in the future (Abarbanell and Bushee 1997). However, Waldron and Seng (2005) believe that the purpose of fundamental analysis is a “reduction of risk in decision making”. They disprove of the idea that abnormal returns cannot be continuously gained.
It is argued that fundamental analysis is a means of gaining money from a sinuous channel rather than from a straightforward channel, as stated by Penman (cited in Waldron and Seng 2005). Although, there is no single method of fundamental analysis, according to (Sharma and Preeti 2009), fundamental analysis is made up of two processes: distinguishing between mature and young firms and studying shares that are expected to grow. There are two common methods for conducting fundamental analysis: a "top down" strategy and a "bottom up" strategy. A “top down” strategy is a methodology of analyzing company’s operations and its expected future activities then moving to an analysis of the entire macroeconomic of the country in which that company operates. Conversely, a “bottom down” strategy starts from the opposite end, narrowly analyzi.
According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and that the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.
This document summarizes a statistical arbitrage strategy that evaluates mean reversion in stock prices over time. It describes the strategy's assumptions that stock prices temporarily diverge from their equilibrium relative to the market before reverting. The experiment uses S&P 500 stock data to calculate daily returns, correlations, betas and residuals over rolling 60-day windows. When residuals exceed +/-2 standard deviations, positions are taken assuming reversion will occur. While backtested returns are appealing, live trading realities like transaction costs and limited share availability would likely reduce profits versus this theoretical analysis.
Arbitrage pricing theory & Efficient market hypothesisHari Ram
Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a multi-factor asset pricing model based on the idea that an asset's returns can be predicted using the linear relationship between the asset's expected return and a number of macroeconomic variables that capture systematic risk.
This document presents a model of market momentum. The model shows that:
[1] Momentum is more pronounced in a confident market where investors incorporate new information into prices more slowly.
[2] Only idiosyncratic shocks, not systematic shocks, can produce momentum, as systematic shocks do not affect cross-sectional stock returns.
[3] Empirical evidence supports the predictions, finding momentum is greater when volatility (and uncertainty) is lower, and when stocks experience larger idiosyncratic shocks.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that current stock prices fully reflect all available information and it is difficult to outperform the market consistently. It describes the three forms of market efficiency - weak, semi-strong, and strong - based on the types of information reflected in prices. The document also addresses some common misconceptions about the EMH, such as claims that successful investors disprove it or that analysis is pointless. Overall, the EMH asserts that markets are generally efficient but not perfectly so, and some investors can outperform by chance.
This document summarizes a study that examines the stock price reaction to dividend announcements in the Nepalese stock market. The study analyzes 139 dividend announcements between 2000-2011, categorizing them as dividend initiations, increases, decreases, or no changes. The study tests the hypotheses that dividend changes will be associated with subsequent stock price movements in the same direction, and that firm-specific factors may influence the stock price reaction. Event study methodology is used to analyze abnormal stock returns around the announcement dates. Preliminary results found higher positive abnormal returns for dividend initiations and increases, and higher negative returns for decreases. The study aims to test the semi-strong form of market efficiency and the dividend signaling hypothesis in the Nepalese market
My investment planning lecture at Griffiths Universityklublok
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2. Chapter Preview
Expectations are very important in our financial
system.
Expectations of returns, risk, and liquidity impact
asset demand
Inflationary expectations impact bond prices
Expectations not only affect our understanding of
markets, but also how financial institutions operate.
3. Chapter Preview
To better understand expectations, we examine
the efficient markets hypothesis.
Framework for understanding what information is
useful and what is not
However, we need to validate the hypothesis with
real market data. The results are mixed, but
generally supportive of the idea.
4. Chapter Preview
In sum, we will look at the basic reasoning behind
the efficient market hypothesis. We also examine
empirical evidence examining this idea. Topics
include:
The Efficient Market Hypothesis
Evidence on the Efficient Market Hypothesis
Behavioral Finance
5. Momemtum
Bhavioural Finance Chapter 10
5
The identification of “drift” or slow dissipation of earnings
“news” through the market, occurred many years ago by Ball
and Brown (1968 ) and as I will show, has been confirmed by
more recent work. Even Eugene Fama, the father of the
efficient market hypothesis, has confessed to finding the
post-earning-announcement drift (henceforth PEAD)
research evidence as “an anomaly above suspicion” (Fama
(1998 )).
“Perhaps the most severe challenge to financial theorists
posed on recent work to earnings announcements is the
finding by Bernard and Thomas (1989, 1990) that market
reaction to the current quarters’ earnings can be predicted
on the basis of information contained in the previous
quarter’s announcement” Brennan (1991)
6. Objectives
Bhavioural Finance Chapter 10
6
After reading this chapter the reader should
Be able to integrate stock price momentum in response to
earnings news into a prospect theory model of asset pricing.
Understand the evidence that it is indeed earnings news
that drives observed continuation in short-run stock price
trends, or stock prive momentum.
7. Evidence Jegadeesh and Titman
(1993)
Bhavioural Finance Chapter 10
7
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
Test period of 3 month Test period of 6 month Test period of 9 month Test period of 1 year
Figure 10.1 Returns to Momentum trading strategy based on 3
month holding period
Sell (hold 3 months) Buy (hold 3 months) Difference
8. What drives stock market
momentum?
Bhavioural Finance Chapter 10
8
Following Ball and Brown’s initial reporting of the fact that
stocks receiving “good news” about their earnings saw their
share price rise (and vice-versa for “bad-news” stock) there
subsequently developed a cottage industry of similar follow
up studies
But even though the presence of drift upwards in share
returns following an earnings announcement following good
“news” about earnings and drift downwards following bad
news is widely accepted its cause is still very much in
contention.,
9. Explaining away PEAD
Bhavioural Finance Chapter 10
9
Transaction costs (Bhushan, 1994) PEAD stronger in less
liquid stocks,
Induced by over-differencing quarterly earnings Jacob, Lys
Sabino (2000).
There is more to observed price momentum anyway than
just earnings news. But maybe not a lot more.
10. Bhavioural Finance Chapter 10
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Return%
Axis Title
Figure 10.13: Winners & Losers in the "No
news" portfolio 1980-2000 (Chan, 2003)
Losers (lowest third of returns) Winners (highest 3rd of returns)
11. Efficient Market Hypothesis
Expectations equal to optimal forecasts implies
R
Pt 1 Pt C
Pt
(7)
P
t1
e
P
t1
of
Re
Rof
Market equilibrium
(8)
Put (8) and (9) together: efficient market hypothesis
R
e
P
t1
e
P
t C
P
t
Re
R*
(9)
Rof
R*
(10)
12. Efficient Market Hypothesis
Rof
R*
This equation tells us that current prices in a financial
market will be set so that the optimal forecast of a
security’s return using all available information
equals the security’s equilibrium return.
Financial economists state it more simply: A security’s
price fully reflects all available information in an
efficient market.
13. Efficient Market Hypothesis
Why efficient market hypothesis makes sense
All unexploited profit opportunities eliminated
Efficient market condition holds even if there are
uninformed, irrational participants in market
If Rof
R*
P
t Rof
If Rof
R*
P
t Rof
until Rof
R*
14. Rationale Behind the Hypothesis
When an unexploited profit opportunity arises
on a security (so-called because, on average,
people would be earning more than they should,
given the characteristics of that security),
investors will rush to buy until the price rises to
the point that the returns are normal again.
15. Rationale Behind
the Hypothesis (cont.)
In an efficient market, all unexploited profit
opportunities will be eliminated.
Not every investor need be aware of every
security and situation, as long as a few keep their
eyes open for unexploited profit opportunities,
they will eliminate the profit opportunities that
appear because in so doing, they make a profit.
16. Stronger Version of the Efficient
Market Hypothesis
Many financial economists take the EMH one
step further in their analysis of financial
markets. Not only do they define an efficient
market as one in which expectations are
optimal forecasts using all available
information, but they also add the condition
that an efficient market is one in which prices
are always correct and reflect market
fundamentals (items that have a direct
impact on future income streams of the
securities)
17. Stronger Version of the Efficient Market
Hypothesis (2)
This stronger view of market efficiency has
several important implications in the
academic field of finance:
1. It implies that in an efficient capital market,
one investment is as good as any other
because the securities’ prices are correct.
2. It implies that a security’s price reflects all
available information about the intrinsic
value of the security.
18. Stronger Version of the Efficient Market
Hypothesis (2)
3. It implies that security prices can be used
by managers of both financial and
nonfinancial firms to assess their cost of
capital (cost of financing their investments)
accurately and hence that security prices
can be used to help them make the correct
decisions about whether a specific
investment is worth making or not.
19. Evidence on Efficient
Market Hypothesis
Favorable Evidence
1. Investment analysts and mutual funds don't beat
the market
2. Stock prices reflect publicly available info:
anticipated announcements don't affect stock
price
3. Stock prices and exchange rates close to
random walk; if predictions of ∆P big, Rof > R*
predictions
of ∆P small
4. Technical analysis does not outperform market
20. Evidence in Favor
of Market Efficiency
Performance of Investment Analysts and
Mutual Funds should not be able to
consistently beat the market
The “Investment Dartboard” often beats
investment managers.
Mutual funds not only do not outperform the market
on average, but when they are separated into
groups according to whether they had the highest or
lowest profits in a chosen period, the mutual funds
that did well in the first period do not beat the
market in the second period.
21. Evidence in Favor
of Market Efficiency
Performance of Investment Analysts and
Mutual Funds should not be able to
consistently beat the market
Investment strategies using inside information is the
only “proven method” to beat the market. In the
U.S., it is illegal to trade on such information, but
that is not true in all countries.
22. Evidence in Favor
of Market Efficiency
Do Stock Prices Reflect Publicly Available
Information as the EMH predicts they will?
Thus if information is already publicly available, a
positive announcement about a company will not,
on average, raise the price of its stock because this
information is already reflected in the stock price.
23. Evidence in Favor
of Market Efficiency
Do Stock Prices Reflect Publicly Available
Information as the EMH predicts they will?
Early empirical evidence confirms: favorable
earnings announcements or announcements of
stock splits (a division of a share of stock into
multiple shares, which is usually followed by higher
earnings) do not, on average, cause stock prices to
rise.
24. Evidence in Favor
of Market Efficiency
Random-Walk Behavior of Stock Prices that
is, future changes in stock prices should, for
all practical purposes, be unpredictable
If stock is predicted to rise, people will buy to equilibrium
level; if stock is predicted to fall, people will sell to
equilibrium level (both in concert with EMH)
Thus, if stock prices were predictable, thereby causing
the above behavior, price changes would be near zero,
which has not been the case historically
25. Evidence in Favor
of Market Efficiency
Technical Analysis means to study past stock
price data and search for patterns such as
trends and regular cycles, suggesting rules
for when to buy and sell stocks
The EMH suggests that technical analysis is a waste
of time
The simplest way to understand why is to use the
random-walk result that holds that past stock price data
cannot help predict changes
Therefore, technical analysis, which relies on such data
to produce its forecasts, cannot successfully predict
changes in stock prices
26. Case: Foreign Exchange Rates
Could you make a bundle if you could predict FX
rates? Of course.
EMH predicts, then, that FX rates should be
unpredictable.
Oddly enough, that is exactly what empirical tests
show – FX rates are not very predictable.
27. Evidence on Efficient
Market Hypothesis
Unfavorable Evidence
1. Small-firm effect: small firms have abnormally
high returns
2. January effect: high returns in January
3. Market overreaction
4. Excessive volatility
5. Mean reversion
6. New information is not always immediately
incorporated into stock prices
Overview
1. Reasonable starting point but not whole story
28. Evidence Against Market Efficiency
The Small-Firm Effect is an anomaly. Many
empirical studies have shown that small firms
have earned abnormally high returns over long
periods of time, even when the greater risk for
these firms has been considered.
The small-firm effect seems to have diminished in recent years
but is still a challenge to the theory of efficient markets
Various theories have been developed to explain the small-
firm effect, suggesting that it may be due to rebalancing of
portfolios by institutional investors, tax issues, low liquidity of
small-firm stocks, large information costs in evaluating small
firms, or an inappropriate measurement of risk for small-firm
stocks
29. Evidence Against Market Efficiency
The January Effect is the tendency of stock
prices to experience an abnormal positive
return in the month of January that is
predictable and, hence, inconsistent with
random-walk behavior
30. Evidence Against Market Efficiency
Investors have an incentive to sell stocks before the
end of the year in December because they can then
take capital losses on their tax return and reduce their
tax liability. Then when the new year starts in January,
they can repurchase the stocks, driving up their prices
and producing abnormally high returns.
Although this explanation seems sensible, it does not
explain why institutional investors such as private
pension funds, which are not subject to income taxes,
do not take advantage of the abnormal returns in
January and buy stocks in December, thus bidding up
their price and eliminating the abnormal returns.
31. Evidence Against Market Efficiency
Market Overreaction: recent research suggests
that stock prices may overreact to news
announcements and that the pricing errors are
corrected only slowly
When corporations announce a major change in earnings, say,
a large decline, the stock price may overshoot, and after an
initial large decline, it may rise back to more normal levels
over a period of several weeks.
This violates the EMH because an investor could earn
abnormally high returns, on average, by buying a stock
immediately after a poor earnings announcement and then
selling it after a couple of weeks when it has risen back to
normal levels.
32. Evidence Against Market Efficiency
Excessive Volatility: the stock market appears to
display excessive volatility; that is, fluctuations in
stock prices may be much greater than is warranted
by fluctuations in their fundamental value.
Researchers have found that fluctuations in the S&P 500 stock
index could not be justified by the subsequent fluctuations in
the dividends of the stocks making up this index.
Other research finds that there are smaller fluctuations in
stock prices when stock markets are closed, which has
produced a consensus that stock market prices appear to be
driven by factors other than fundamentals.
33. Evidence Against Market Efficiency
Mean Reversion: Some researchers have
found that stocks with low returns today
tend to have high returns in the future, and
vice versa.
Hence stocks that have done poorly in the past are
more likely to do well in the future because mean
reversion indicates that there will be a predictable
positive change in the future price, suggesting that
stock prices are not a random walk.
Newer data is less conclusive; nevertheless, mean
reversion remains controversial.
34. Evidence Against Market Efficiency
New Information Is Not Always
Immediately Incorporated into Stock
Prices
Although generally true, recent evidence suggests
that, inconsistent with the efficient market
hypothesis, stock prices do not instantaneously
adjust to profit announcements.
Instead, on average stock prices continue to rise for
some time after the announcement of unexpectedly
high profits, and they continue to fall after
surprisingly low profit announcements.
35. Mini-Case: Ivan Boesky
In the 1980s, Mr. Boesky made millions of dollars for
himself and his investors by investing in take-over
targets. Did he disprove the efficient market
hypothesis by predicting who would be take-over
targets in the coming months?
36. Mini-Case: Ivan Boesky
Hardly. In 1986, Mr. Boesky was charged with
insider trading. This does show that you can make
money on information others don’t have…
37. THE PRACTICING MANAGER:
Implications for Investing
1. How valuable are published reports by
investment advisors?
2. Should you be skeptical of hot tips?
3. Do stock prices always rise when there is good
news?
4. Efficient Markets prescription for investor
39. Implications for Investing
1. Should you be skeptical of hot tips?
YES. The EMH indicates that you should be
skeptical of hot tips since, if the stock market is
efficient, it has already priced the hot tip stock so
that its expected return will equal the equilibrium
return.
Thus, the hot tip is not particularly valuable and
will not enable you to earn an abnormally high
return.
40. Implications for Investing
1. Should you be skeptical of hot tips?
As soon as the information hits the street, the
unexploited profit opportunity it creates will be
quickly eliminated.
The stock’s price will already reflect the
information, and you should expect to realize
only the equilibrium return.
41. Implications for Investing
Do stock prices always rise when there is
good news?
NO. In an efficient market, stock prices will respond
to announcements only when the information being
announced is new and unexpected.
So, if good news was expected (or as good as
expected), there will be no stock price response.
And, if good news was unexpected (or not as good
as expected), there will be a stock price response.
42. Implications for Investing
Efficient Markets prescription
for investor
Investors should not try to outguess the market by
constantly buying and selling securities. This
process does nothing but incur commissions costs
on each trade.
43. Implications for Investing
Efficient Markets prescription
for investor
Instead, the investor should pursue a “buy and hold”
strategy—purchase stocks and hold them for long
periods of time. This will lead to the same returns,
on average, but the investor’s net profits will be
higher because fewer brokerage commissions will
have to be paid.
44. Implications for Investing
Efficient Markets prescription for investor
It is frequently a sensible strategy for a small
investor, whose costs of managing a portfolio may
be high relative to its size, to buy into a mutual fund
rather than individual stocks. Because the EMH
indicates that no mutual fund can consistently
outperform the market, an investor should not buy
into one that has high management fees or that
pays sales commissions to brokers but rather
should purchase a no-load (commission-free)
mutual fund that has low management fees.
45. Behavioral Finance
Dissatisfaction with using the EMH to explain events
like 1987’s Black Monday gave rise to the new field of
behavioral finance, in which concepts from
psychology, sociology, and other social sciences are
applied to understand the behavior of securities prices
EMH suggests that “smart money” would engage in
short sales to combat overpriced securities, yet short
sale volume is low, leading to behavior theories about
“loss aversion”
Other behavior analysis points to investor
overconfidence as perpetuating stock price bubbles