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Modern Portfolio Theory and Practice -or- Get Rich Slow -or- Why the Real Mutual Fund Scandal is Legal David Roodman Summer 2007
Lesson 1:  Do  save/invest ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Modern Portfolio Theory (Harry Markowitz, 1952) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MPT, cont’d ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Can diversification eliminate risk? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MPT, cont’d ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Efficient market hypothesis (Eugene Fama, 1965, Chicago dissertation) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
EMH, cont’d ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Daily % change in AT&T stock vs. previous % change, ~1998-2003
3 forms of EMH ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.investorhome.com/emh.htm
Implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Why should they tell you? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lesson 4: minimize turnover ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DALBAR survey of investors, 1984-2002 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.dalbarinc.com/content/printerfriendly.asp?page=2003071601
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],An indignant question
Capital Asset Pricing Model (Sharpe and others, ~1964) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Index mutual funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Interim conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Two things to ponder: 1. Risk vs. return ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
  Geometric   From Malkiel,  Random Walk Down Wall Street
Two things to ponder: 2. Herd behavior ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Definitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fama & French 1992 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
From Robert Haugen,  The New Finance: The Case against Efficient Markets,  based on Fama & French 1992
Here’s where it gets weird ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
From Robert Haugen,  The New Finance: The Case against Efficient Markets,  based on Fama & French 1992 Beta
100 Most-Cited Researchers in Economics SOURCE:  ISI Essential Science Indicators            Web based product from the September 1, 2002 update covering a ten year plus six month period, January 1992 - June 30, 2002.        RANK SCIENTIST PAPERS CITATIONS CITATIONS PER PAPER 1 SHLEIFER, A 50   1,717   34.34   2 FAMA , EF 20   1,242   62.10   3 LEVINE, R 22   1,205   54.77   4 KAHNEMAN, D 16   1,122   70.12   5 VISHNY, RW 23   1,043   45.35   6 MURPHY, KM 20   984   49.20   7 TVERSKY, A 13   901   69.31   8 SALAIMARTIN, X(*) 19 894 47.05 9 FRENCH , KR 14   881   62.93   10 ANDREWS, DWK 27   856   31.70
What’s going on? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
My conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lesson 9 :Vanguard is the best ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What I did ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Allocations
Data collection ,[object Object],[object Object]
Real returns, 8/19/99–10/24/07
 
 
 
 
 
Bottom line ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Total return on some funds in the portfolio Note: Not all funds held all 8 years.
“ Having spent nearly a decade writing about investment management for the little guy, I have come to the conclusion that I no longer believe in the basic premise of my public persona—a surreal cross between Harry Markowitz and Johnny Appleseed, as a friend put it.  “ A decade ago, I really did believe that the average investor could do it himself. After all, the flesh was willing, the vehicles were available, and the math wasn’t  that  hard.  “ I was wrong. Having emailed and spoken to thousands of investors over the years, I’ve come to the sad conclusion that only a tiny minority, at most one percent, are capable of pulling it off.” -- William J. Bernstein,  Efficient Frontier,  Winter 2003 http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/103/probable.htm
For more ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Modern Portfolio Theory and Practice

  • 1. Modern Portfolio Theory and Practice -or- Get Rich Slow -or- Why the Real Mutual Fund Scandal is Legal David Roodman Summer 2007
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  • 10. Daily % change in AT&T stock vs. previous % change, ~1998-2003
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  • 18.
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  • 21.
  • 22.   Geometric  From Malkiel, Random Walk Down Wall Street
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  • 26. From Robert Haugen, The New Finance: The Case against Efficient Markets, based on Fama & French 1992
  • 27.
  • 28. From Robert Haugen, The New Finance: The Case against Efficient Markets, based on Fama & French 1992 Beta
  • 29. 100 Most-Cited Researchers in Economics SOURCE: ISI Essential Science Indicators         Web based product from the September 1, 2002 update covering a ten year plus six month period, January 1992 - June 30, 2002.      RANK SCIENTIST PAPERS CITATIONS CITATIONS PER PAPER 1 SHLEIFER, A 50 1,717 34.34 2 FAMA , EF 20 1,242 62.10 3 LEVINE, R 22 1,205 54.77 4 KAHNEMAN, D 16 1,122 70.12 5 VISHNY, RW 23 1,043 45.35 6 MURPHY, KM 20 984 49.20 7 TVERSKY, A 13 901 69.31 8 SALAIMARTIN, X(*) 19 894 47.05 9 FRENCH , KR 14 881 62.93 10 ANDREWS, DWK 27 856 31.70
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  • 43. Total return on some funds in the portfolio Note: Not all funds held all 8 years.
  • 44. “ Having spent nearly a decade writing about investment management for the little guy, I have come to the conclusion that I no longer believe in the basic premise of my public persona—a surreal cross between Harry Markowitz and Johnny Appleseed, as a friend put it. “ A decade ago, I really did believe that the average investor could do it himself. After all, the flesh was willing, the vehicles were available, and the math wasn’t that hard. “ I was wrong. Having emailed and spoken to thousands of investors over the years, I’ve come to the sad conclusion that only a tiny minority, at most one percent, are capable of pulling it off.” -- William J. Bernstein, Efficient Frontier, Winter 2003 http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/103/probable.htm
  • 45.