LECTURE L11
THE BROADCAST CENTURY
Why does this exist?
100 million hours / year
Few people do much, many do little
200 million minutes / day
Where do people find the time?
EARLY ENTERTAINMENT
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value.
Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
-- David Sarnoff's associates in response to
his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
Music was performed live
Story telling
People got together to sing the
songs of the day
Live culture - experiences
Participation: everyone was
an entertainer
Early Entertainment
Read-Write Culture
Edison’s Phonograph 1877
„The Talking Machine“

First machine to record speech 

and music
Emile Berliner’s
Gramophone 1889
Famous artists were recorded, to be
played by everyone again and again

Entertainment becomes a profession
or the few

Everyone else becomes a consumer
First radio
broadcasts 1906
Commercial radio broadcasting starts
in 1920s
Public’s need for information and
entertainment
Equipment manufactures
http://www.tuberadioland.com/westinghouseWR-30_main.html
Westinghouse Model WR-30 Gothic
Style Tombstone Radio (1933)
Amateur operators - hobbyists
ENTER THE TV
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value.
Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
-- David Sarnoff's associates in response to
his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
First steps
John Logie Baird

Scottish inventor

Experimented with wireless

transmission of images

All enabling technologies were
becoming available 

First public television broadcast
was 27. January 1926 in
London
TV broadcast start in the 1930s

BBC starts broadcasts in 1936

Slow increase in consoles

Lack of standard
Early TV
Color in the 50s

RCA begins production of its 

first color TV set for consumers

Low quality



Very expensive
Color TV
In 1950 a market has emerged

US data:

1946 there are 20.000 TVs, 

18 stations

1953 there are over 20

million TVs – 44% of 

households, 300 stations

TV in Iceland in 1966
Rise of a TV Market
Golden Age of TV
Linear TV provided by national channels
Media in the 20th Century
Print Radio TV CD/DVDs
1900 2000
Analog, Broadcast, One-2-many, copies to sell
You need help, here is a product for you
Media in the 20th Century
Why is TV so powerful?
TV Watching
On average, individuals in the industrialised world 

devote three hours a day to watching TV
TV Watching
On average, individuals in the industrialised world 

devote three hours a day to watching TV
Gallup poll on TV Watching

Two out of five adult respondents and seven out of 10 teenagers 

said they spent too much time watching TV

Usually people are embarrassed to admit to watching much TV
TV Watching
A Formula for Addiction
TV is passive and relaxing

Reduces alertness

Effect is fast

Trigger - Behaviour - Reward - Repeat

Problem: TV addiction
A Formula for Addiction
23% of UK teenagers claim to watch less TV and
15% admit they read fewer books now that they
have smartphones
A Formula for Addiction
1900 2000
Edison’s 

Phonograph
1877
Emile Berliner’s
Gramophone
1889
Radio
Broadcasts
1920s
TV
Broadcasts
1940s
The Record
Industry - LPs
1950s
CDs
1980s
DVDs
1990s
The Broadcast Century
One 2 Many, broadcasting by professionals

Read-only culture, consumers and producers

Established business models
1900 2000
Edison’s 

Phonograph
1877
Emile Berliner’s
Gramophone
1889
Radio
Broadcasts
1920s
TV
Broadcasts
1940s
The Record
Industry - LPs
1950s
CDs
1980s
DVDs
1990s
Ad revenue from broadcasting

Subscription to a closed network like cable, set-top boxes

Sell a product
Business Models
Lawrence Lessig
Laws that choke creativity
Read-Only Culture
TV Goes Digital
Analog Standards
NTSC, PAL, SECAM

TVs supported different standards

	 

Broadcast: 

	 VHF (54-88 MHz, 174-216 MHz)

	 UHF (470 to 890 MHz)

	 Cable
Most countries switched off analogue transmission 2007-2009
Source:	HowStuffWorks.com
Source:	HowStuffWorks.com
Digital TV
DVB, ATSC, ISDB, DTMB, DBM

H.262/MPEG …

Transmitted 

	 Radio, satellites, cables, fiber, ADSL or Web

	 

Benefits

	 Better picture and better sound – more resolution

	 Better use of bandwidth using compression

TV becomes a software problem - who cares about standards anymore
Source:	HowStuffWorks.com
Normal TV has the ratio 4:3 (1,34:1) 

HDTV has the aspect ratio 16:9 (1,78:1)
Digital TV
The Internet
DIGITAL

FORMAT
1900 2000
Edison’s 

Phonograph
1877
Emile Berliner’s
Gramophone
1889
Radio
Broadcasts
1920s
TV
Broadcasts
1940s
The Record
Industry - LPs
1950s
CDs
1980s
DVDs
1990s
The Internet Revolution Starts
INTERNET
Disruptive changes to established business models
Electronic Programming Guide
Additional Information
Digital video recorders (DVRs) 

	 Recording television transmissions for later viewing

Examples 

	 TiVo, ReplayTV, DirectTV
Time shift
Watch your TV everywhere in the world

Technology that allows you to watch your TV over the Internet

Slingbox

Place Shift
Pictures from
www.oscar.com
VoD - Video-on-demand

Goodbye to of the Video Store

Change in distribution of content

Delivered over the Internet, ADSL

or cable, including fibre
Video On Demand
THE 

DIGITAL DECADE

THE CONTENT

ESCAPES

THE FORM

INTERNET 

DISRUPTION

BEGINS
DIGITAL

FORMAT
1900 2000
Edison’s 

Phonograph
1877
Emile Berliner’s
Gramophone
1889
Radio
Broadcasts
1920s
TV
Broadcasts
1940s
The Record
Industry - LPs
1950s
CDs
1980s
DVDs
1990s
The Digital Decade
Analogue formats become digital

The content escapes the form
The Digital Decade
As bandwidth
increases so does the
possibilities

Sharing MP3, shows,
then movies and finally
streaming
Source:	DataMonitor
The Digital Age of TV
Over The Top (OTT) streaming
The Digital Age of TV
New players enter the market
Netflix will spend between $7 billion and $8 billion on content in 2018
From Hollywood to Internet
companies
From cable or broadcasting to 

Over The Top (OTT)
The distributor does not have any
control of the content
Netflix accounts for 35%
of Internet traffic
People spend 1
billion hours / month
watching Netflix
Streaming Videos
500 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube alone every minute

It would take an individual over 5 million years to watch the amount of
video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2019

Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the
network by 2019

Globally, consumer internet video traffic will be 80 percent of all
consumer Internet traffic in 2019, up from 64 percent in 2014
Internet Video - “Over the Top”
Realse, Cisco
Source:	Economist		-	Coming	soon
End of an Era
Digital Content is causing disruptions in the
conventional value chain

DVD sales are slowing

Distribution of content is going to digital
mediums
Traditional Broadcast TV Declines
Television consumption by 16 to
24-year-olds fell for the third year
in a row

On average they watched 148
minutes per day last year,
compared with 169 minutes in
2010 (UK data)
End of Broadcasting
Where do people find the time?
TV
200 billion hours / year
Watching TV
100 million hours / year
2000 wikipedias / year
Clay Shirky
On Cognitive Surplus
Since the 1940s people have been passively consuming TV

Now people are learning how to use free time more constructively for
creative acts rather than consumptive ones, particularly with the advent
of online tools that allow new forms of collaboration

Cognitive Surplus is about the management of free time



With all the access to online activity that the Internet, the web and
smartphone brought people are now turning their free time from
consumption of media to more engaging activities
Cognitive Surplus
Read-only Culture
f(x) = axk + o(xk)
MOVIE
STARS
Chris Anderson
On the Long Tail, 2006
Bottlenecks in the Distribution channels
The Power Law
Pareto Principle
For many events, roughly
80% of the effects come
from 20% of the causes
Economy of
SCARCITY
Economy of
ABUNDANCE
Established Business Models are Crushed
LONG TAIL
What percentage of the top 10,000 titles
in any online media store (Netflix, iTunes,
Amazon, or any other) will rent or sell at
least once a month?
99%
USER
GENERTATED
CONTENT
Youtube counter broke
EVERYBODY
IS A
PRODUCER
Felix Arvid Ulf Kjellberg
PewDiePie
Swedish video game commentator
Annual Earnings: $7 million

Subscribers: 42,102,216

Views: 11,187,386,766
MANY 2 MANY: 

PEER INTERACTION
ESTABLISHED
BUSINESS MODELS
GET DISRUPTED
READ WRITE CULTURE
ONE 2 MANY: 

BROADCASTING
BUSINESS
MODELS GET
ESTABLISHED
READ ONLY CULTURE
BEFORE NOW
CONTROLLED BY
GATEKEEPERS
CONTROLLED BY
CONSUMERS/PRODUCERS
THE 

DIGITAL DECADE

THE CONTENT

ESCAPES

THE FORM

INTERNET 

DISRUPTION

BEGINS
DIGITAL

FORMAT
1900 2000
Edison’s 

Phonograph
1877
Emile Berliner’s
Gramophone
1889
Radio
Broadcasts
1920s
TV
Broadcasts
1940s
The Record
Industry - LPs
1950s
CDs
1980s
DVDs
1990s
The Digital Decade
Analogue formats become digital

The content escapes the form
THE 

DIGITAL DECADE

THE CONTENT

ESCAPES

THE FORM

INTERNET 

DISRUPTION

BEGINS
DIGITAL

FORMAT
1900 2000
CDs
1980s
DVDs
1990s
THE 

TRANSFORMATION
DECADE

BUSINESS MODELS
CHANGE

SMARTPHONES

REAL TIME SOFTWARE

CLOUD AND AI
2010
The Digital Decade
Analogue formats become digital

The content escapes the form
THE 

DIGITAL DECADE

THE CONTENT

ESCAPES

THE FORM

INTERNET 

DISRUPTION

BEGINS
DIGITAL

FORMAT
1900 2000
CDs
1980s
DVDs
1990s
THE 

TRANSFORMATION
DECADE

BUSINESS MODELS
CHANGE

SMARTPHONES

REAL TIME SOFTWARE

CLOUD AND AI
2010
The Transformation Decade
Business models change, those ready will win

Your gatekeeper is now an AI
Why Snapchat Is the New TV
Future of TV
NEXT
Digital Transformation

L11 The Broadcast Century

  • 1.
  • 3.
  • 6.
  • 7.
    Few people domuch, many do little
  • 8.
  • 9.
    Where do peoplefind the time?
  • 10.
    EARLY ENTERTAINMENT "The wirelessmusic box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" -- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
  • 11.
    Music was performedlive Story telling People got together to sing the songs of the day Live culture - experiences Participation: everyone was an entertainer Early Entertainment
  • 12.
  • 13.
    Edison’s Phonograph 1877 „TheTalking Machine“ First machine to record speech 
 and music
  • 14.
    Emile Berliner’s Gramophone 1889 Famousartists were recorded, to be played by everyone again and again Entertainment becomes a profession or the few Everyone else becomes a consumer
  • 15.
    First radio broadcasts 1906 Commercialradio broadcasting starts in 1920s Public’s need for information and entertainment Equipment manufactures http://www.tuberadioland.com/westinghouseWR-30_main.html Westinghouse Model WR-30 Gothic Style Tombstone Radio (1933) Amateur operators - hobbyists
  • 16.
    ENTER THE TV "Thewireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" -- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
  • 17.
    First steps John LogieBaird Scottish inventor Experimented with wireless
 transmission of images All enabling technologies were becoming available First public television broadcast was 27. January 1926 in London
  • 19.
    TV broadcast startin the 1930s BBC starts broadcasts in 1936 Slow increase in consoles Lack of standard Early TV
  • 20.
    Color in the50s RCA begins production of its 
 first color TV set for consumers Low quality 
 Very expensive Color TV
  • 21.
    In 1950 amarket has emerged US data: 1946 there are 20.000 TVs, 
 18 stations 1953 there are over 20
 million TVs – 44% of 
 households, 300 stations TV in Iceland in 1966 Rise of a TV Market
  • 22.
    Golden Age ofTV Linear TV provided by national channels
  • 25.
    Media in the20th Century Print Radio TV CD/DVDs 1900 2000 Analog, Broadcast, One-2-many, copies to sell
  • 26.
    You need help,here is a product for you Media in the 20th Century
  • 27.
    Why is TVso powerful?
  • 29.
    TV Watching On average,individuals in the industrialised world devote three hours a day to watching TV
  • 30.
    TV Watching On average,individuals in the industrialised world devote three hours a day to watching TV
  • 31.
    Gallup poll onTV Watching Two out of five adult respondents and seven out of 10 teenagers said they spent too much time watching TV Usually people are embarrassed to admit to watching much TV TV Watching
  • 32.
    A Formula forAddiction TV is passive and relaxing Reduces alertness Effect is fast Trigger - Behaviour - Reward - Repeat Problem: TV addiction
  • 34.
    A Formula forAddiction
  • 35.
    23% of UKteenagers claim to watch less TV and 15% admit they read fewer books now that they have smartphones A Formula for Addiction
  • 36.
    1900 2000 Edison’s 
 Phonograph 1877 EmileBerliner’s Gramophone 1889 Radio Broadcasts 1920s TV Broadcasts 1940s The Record Industry - LPs 1950s CDs 1980s DVDs 1990s The Broadcast Century One 2 Many, broadcasting by professionals Read-only culture, consumers and producers Established business models
  • 37.
    1900 2000 Edison’s 
 Phonograph 1877 EmileBerliner’s Gramophone 1889 Radio Broadcasts 1920s TV Broadcasts 1940s The Record Industry - LPs 1950s CDs 1980s DVDs 1990s Ad revenue from broadcasting Subscription to a closed network like cable, set-top boxes Sell a product Business Models
  • 38.
    Lawrence Lessig Laws thatchoke creativity
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
    Analog Standards NTSC, PAL,SECAM TVs supported different standards Broadcast: VHF (54-88 MHz, 174-216 MHz) UHF (470 to 890 MHz) Cable Most countries switched off analogue transmission 2007-2009 Source: HowStuffWorks.com
  • 43.
    Source: HowStuffWorks.com Digital TV DVB, ATSC,ISDB, DTMB, DBM H.262/MPEG … Transmitted Radio, satellites, cables, fiber, ADSL or Web Benefits Better picture and better sound – more resolution Better use of bandwidth using compression TV becomes a software problem - who cares about standards anymore
  • 44.
    Source: HowStuffWorks.com Normal TV hasthe ratio 4:3 (1,34:1) HDTV has the aspect ratio 16:9 (1,78:1) Digital TV
  • 45.
  • 46.
    DIGITAL
 FORMAT 1900 2000 Edison’s 
 Phonograph 1877 EmileBerliner’s Gramophone 1889 Radio Broadcasts 1920s TV Broadcasts 1940s The Record Industry - LPs 1950s CDs 1980s DVDs 1990s The Internet Revolution Starts INTERNET Disruptive changes to established business models
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
    Digital video recorders(DVRs) Recording television transmissions for later viewing Examples TiVo, ReplayTV, DirectTV Time shift
  • 50.
    Watch your TVeverywhere in the world Technology that allows you to watch your TV over the Internet Slingbox Place Shift
  • 52.
    Pictures from www.oscar.com VoD -Video-on-demand Goodbye to of the Video Store Change in distribution of content Delivered over the Internet, ADSL
 or cable, including fibre Video On Demand
  • 53.
    THE 
 DIGITAL DECADE THECONTENT ESCAPES THE FORM INTERNET DISRUPTION BEGINS DIGITAL
 FORMAT 1900 2000 Edison’s 
 Phonograph 1877 Emile Berliner’s Gramophone 1889 Radio Broadcasts 1920s TV Broadcasts 1940s The Record Industry - LPs 1950s CDs 1980s DVDs 1990s The Digital Decade Analogue formats become digital The content escapes the form
  • 54.
    The Digital Decade Asbandwidth increases so does the possibilities Sharing MP3, shows, then movies and finally streaming
  • 56.
    Source: DataMonitor The Digital Ageof TV Over The Top (OTT) streaming
  • 57.
    The Digital Ageof TV New players enter the market Netflix will spend between $7 billion and $8 billion on content in 2018
  • 58.
    From Hollywood toInternet companies From cable or broadcasting to 
 Over The Top (OTT) The distributor does not have any control of the content
  • 59.
    Netflix accounts for35% of Internet traffic People spend 1 billion hours / month watching Netflix Streaming Videos
  • 60.
    500 hours ofvideo are uploaded to YouTube alone every minute It would take an individual over 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2019 Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network by 2019 Globally, consumer internet video traffic will be 80 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2019, up from 64 percent in 2014 Internet Video - “Over the Top” Realse, Cisco
  • 62.
    Source: Economist - Coming soon End of anEra Digital Content is causing disruptions in the conventional value chain DVD sales are slowing Distribution of content is going to digital mediums
  • 63.
    Traditional Broadcast TVDeclines Television consumption by 16 to 24-year-olds fell for the third year in a row On average they watched 148 minutes per day last year, compared with 169 minutes in 2010 (UK data)
  • 64.
  • 65.
    Where do peoplefind the time?
  • 67.
  • 68.
    200 billion hours/ year Watching TV
  • 70.
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 74.
    Since the 1940speople have been passively consuming TV Now people are learning how to use free time more constructively for creative acts rather than consumptive ones, particularly with the advent of online tools that allow new forms of collaboration Cognitive Surplus is about the management of free time
 
 With all the access to online activity that the Internet, the web and smartphone brought people are now turning their free time from consumption of media to more engaging activities Cognitive Surplus
  • 75.
  • 76.
    f(x) = axk+ o(xk)
  • 78.
  • 79.
    Chris Anderson On theLong Tail, 2006
  • 81.
    Bottlenecks in theDistribution channels
  • 82.
  • 83.
    Pareto Principle For manyevents, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes
  • 84.
  • 87.
  • 88.
  • 90.
  • 93.
    What percentage ofthe top 10,000 titles in any online media store (Netflix, iTunes, Amazon, or any other) will rent or sell at least once a month? 99%
  • 96.
  • 101.
  • 103.
  • 106.
    Felix Arvid UlfKjellberg PewDiePie Swedish video game commentator Annual Earnings: $7 million Subscribers: 42,102,216 Views: 11,187,386,766
  • 111.
    MANY 2 MANY:
 PEER INTERACTION ESTABLISHED BUSINESS MODELS GET DISRUPTED READ WRITE CULTURE ONE 2 MANY: 
 BROADCASTING BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHED READ ONLY CULTURE BEFORE NOW CONTROLLED BY GATEKEEPERS CONTROLLED BY CONSUMERS/PRODUCERS
  • 112.
    THE 
 DIGITAL DECADE THECONTENT ESCAPES THE FORM INTERNET DISRUPTION BEGINS DIGITAL
 FORMAT 1900 2000 Edison’s 
 Phonograph 1877 Emile Berliner’s Gramophone 1889 Radio Broadcasts 1920s TV Broadcasts 1940s The Record Industry - LPs 1950s CDs 1980s DVDs 1990s The Digital Decade Analogue formats become digital The content escapes the form
  • 113.
    THE 
 DIGITAL DECADE THECONTENT ESCAPES THE FORM INTERNET DISRUPTION BEGINS DIGITAL
 FORMAT 1900 2000 CDs 1980s DVDs 1990s THE 
 TRANSFORMATION DECADE BUSINESS MODELS CHANGE SMARTPHONES
 REAL TIME SOFTWARE CLOUD AND AI 2010 The Digital Decade Analogue formats become digital The content escapes the form
  • 114.
    THE 
 DIGITAL DECADE THECONTENT ESCAPES THE FORM INTERNET DISRUPTION BEGINS DIGITAL
 FORMAT 1900 2000 CDs 1980s DVDs 1990s THE 
 TRANSFORMATION DECADE BUSINESS MODELS CHANGE SMARTPHONES
 REAL TIME SOFTWARE CLOUD AND AI 2010 The Transformation Decade Business models change, those ready will win
 Your gatekeeper is now an AI
  • 115.
    Why Snapchat Isthe New TV
  • 116.
  • 118.