Svetlana

1. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
EAST EUROPE AR6 REGION (EEU)
From Figure Atlas.2: (a) AR5 and (b) AR6 WGI
reference regions (Iturbide et al., 2020).

2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis

3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ABOVE 35 DEGREE CELSIUS (TX35)
GWL 1.5 2 3 4
Change
North
+0.5 +1 +3 +6
Change
South
+15 +20 +36 +55

4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
• Strong declines in glaciers, permafrost, snow
cover extent, and snow seasonal duration at
high latitudes/altitudes are observed and will
continue in a warming world (high confidence)
{Regional FS Europe}.
Seasonal snow
Figure Atlas.18: Linear trends for the 1980–2015 period
based on station data from the World Data Centre of the
Russian Institute for Hydrometeorological Information
(RIHMI-WDC) (Bulygina et al., 2014).
Snow cover duration has very likely reduced
over Siberia and Eastern and Northern
Europe {Atlas.5.2.2}

5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
SNOWFALL CHANGE (DJF)
• Projected low confidence in
direction of change in EEU
{Regional FS Europe}
GWL 1.5 2 3 4
Change
North
+0.1
mm/day
+0.1
mm/day
+0.2
mm/day
+0.3
mm/day
Change
South
-0.1
mm/day
-0.1
mm/day
-0.2
mm/day
-0.3
mm/day

6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
MAXIMUM 5-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNT CHANGE (DJF)
• Projected increase in pluvial
flooding at global warming of
1.5°C (medium confidence) and
2°C and above (high confidence).
GWL 1.5 2 3 4
Change
North
+10% +13% +21% +35%
Change
South
+7% +9% +17% +27%

7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis