The domestic Indian markets witnessed declines of around 1.8-1.9% on October 4th, mirroring negative global market cues. The markets opened lower but recovered slightly from the lows, though lack of buying support led to further losses by the end of the day. Most sectoral indices ended in the red. Technically, indicators suggest further downside pressure for the markets. The Nifty is expected to test support at 4,757 unless it moves back above resistance at 4,987. Global cues and upcoming earnings will continue guiding the markets.

1. Daily Technical Outlook
4th October 2011
Indices Close % Chg. Mirroring the negative set of global market cues, the domestic
BSE SENSEX 16151.45 -1.84 markets witnessed a gap down opening. However, the
S&P CNX NIFTY 4849.50 -1.90 markets managed to pull back from the lows. But lack of
NIFTY OCT. FUT. 4857.75 -1.55 follow up buying support and sustained selling pressure saw
India VIX 35.07 9.79
the markets drift lower. The markets see-sawed through the
day amidst listless trade and lackluster volumes. The markets
S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels ended the day with moderate losses to close near the lows
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
for the day. The top losers for the day were DLF, Jindal Steel,
Sail, Hindalco, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Sterlite, JP
Support 4757 4563 4387
Associates, Tata Power and Wipro.
Resistance 4987 5161 5211
Technically, the market breadth remained negative
Volume (Lacs Shares) amidst lower volumes. The global market set of cues are
03/10/11 30/09/11 % Chg. largely negative. The domestic markets are likely to
BSE 2083 2225 -6.38 witness a negative opening. The prevailing technical
NSE 4583 5851 -21.67 negatives and weak global market cues continue to
Total 6666 8076 -17.46 weigh on the market sentiment. Nifty has continues to
Source – BSE & NSE trade below the crucial 4987 level, which would lead to
further selling pressure. Moreover, the Stochastic, RSI,
Turnover ( ` Crores)
MACD and KST are placed below their respective
03/10/11 30/09/11 % Chg.
averages, which would lead to further selling pressure.
BSE 2150.24 2489.43 -13.63 The KST and MACD continue to remain placed in the
NSE 8677.89 11264.55 -22.96 negative territory. The Nifty continues to trade below its
NSE F&O 81146.33 93879.20 -13.56 200-day SMA. Moreso, the 50-day SMA remains placed
Total 91974.46 107633.18 -14.55 below the 100-day SMA. Though, the ADX, +DI line and –
Source – BSE & NSE DI line are moving sideways the –DI line is placed above
Market Breadth (NSE)
the 30 level indicating sellers have an upper hand. The
market sentiment remains negative. The markets are
Advances 343
likely to drift lower and the Nifty is likely to test the 4757
Declines 1123
level unless we move and sustain above the 4987 level.
Same 48 In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from the
Total 1514 global markets and forthcoming earnings quarter. The
A/D Ratio 0.31 : 1 support levels for Nifty are placed at 4757, 4563 and 4387.
Source – NSE The Nifty faces resistance at the 4987, 5161, 5211 and 5325
Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY levels.
50 Day SMA 5114.71
◄Negative
100 Day SMA 5310.70
200 Day SMA 5491.10 ◄Negative
Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support
Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
BSE SENSEX 16151 16155 16253 16354 16554 16053 15955 15755
S&P CNX NIFTY 4850 4851 4878 4906 4961 4823 4796 4740
NIFTY OCT. FUT. 4858 4850 4887 4916 4982 4821 4784 4718
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)
Stop
Initiation Stop Loss Target
Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks
Apollo Tyre 53.05 Sell Below 52 55.75 7.73 44 14.98
Hind. Zinc 112.45 Sell Below 111 113.25 2.03 106 4.50
Jindal Steel 471.65 Sell Below 464 477.50 2.91 434 6.47
* Stop Losses are to be considered on Closing basis only.
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com

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