- The domestic Indian markets opened lower mirroring weak global cues but recovered slightly from the lows due to short covering and selective buying. However, markets remained volatile and ended the day with moderate losses near the lows.
- Technically, market breadth was negative with higher volumes, and indicators like MACD, RSI and KST were below their averages, suggesting further downside pressure. However, short-term supports exist at 4987, 4806 and 4757 levels.
- Going forward, markets will take cues from monsoon progress, crude prices and global trends, but the overall sentiment remains negative.
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Keynote technicals daily report 100811
1. Daily Technical Outlook
10th August 2011
Indices Close % Chg. Mirroring the weak set of global market cues, the domestic
BSE SENSEX 16857.91 -0.78 markets witnessed a gap down opening. However, short
S&P CNX NIFTY 5072.85 -0.89 covering and selective buying support helped the markets
NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5083.40 -0.84 come off the lows of the day to move higher. However, the
India VIX 34.88 21.19
markets faltered close to 5195 resistance level on back of
profit taking and weak European market cues. The markets
S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels remained volatile during the day. The markets ended the day
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
with moderate losses to close near the lows for the day. The
top losers for the day were Rel. Infra, Rel. Power, tata Steel,
Support 4987 4806 4757
Rel. Comm, Tata Motors, Ranbaxy, Infosys Tech., TCS,
Resistance 5195 5262 5364
Wipro and Rel. Capital.
Volume (Lacs Shares) Technically, the market breadth remained subdue amidst
09/08/11 08/08/11 % Chg. higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the markets.
BSE 2875 3212 -10.49 The global market set of cues are positive. The domestic
NSE 8476 7428 14.11 markets are likely to witness a gap up opening. The Nifty
Total 11351 10640 6.69 continues to trade below its 200-day SMA. Further the 50-
Source – BSE & NSE day SMA remains placed below the 100-day SMA. The
Nifty is trading below the February’11 ascending
Turnover ( ` Crores)
trendline. The MACD, RSI and KST are placed below their
09/08/11 08/08/11 % Chg.
respective averages. Moreso, the KST and MACD are
BSE 3398.30 2990.96 13.62 placed in the negative territory. These conditions would
NSE 15645.43 13420.86 16.58 result in selling pressure at regular intervals. The -DI line
NSE F&O 197832.06 168902.00 17.13 remains placed above the 43 level, indicating sellers
Total 216875.79 185313.82 17.03 have an upper hand. The ADX line is moving higher,
Source – BSE & NSE while the +DI line is moving down. The only silver lining
Market Breadth (NSE)
for the markets remains the Stochastic, RSI and KST are
placed in the over sold territory on the daily charts. The
Advances 344
Stochastic is also place above its average. These
Declines 1134
conditions would lead to regular bouts of short covering
Same 38 leading to relief rally. The market sentiment remains
Total 1516 negative. Further selling pressure is likely to be
A/D Ratio 0.30 : 1 witnessed amidst occasional bouts of relief rally and
Source – NSE volatility. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues
Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY from the news flow on the progress of monsoon, crude
50 Day SMA 5500.77
prices and the global markets. The support levels for Nifty
◄Negative are placed at 4987, 4806 and 4757. The Nifty faces
100 Day SMA 5568.25
resistance at the 5195, 5262, 5364 and 5500 levels.
200 Day SMA 5676.12 ◄Negative
Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support
Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
BSE SENSEX 16858 16808 17185 17511 18214 16482 16105 15402
S&P CNX NIFTY 5073 5062 5178 5283 5503 4957 4842 4621
NIFTY AUG. FUT. 5083 5069 5187 5290 5511 4966 4848 4627
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com
2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)
Stop
Initiation Stop Loss Target
Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks
ONGC 285.40 Buy Above 292 277 5.14 324 10.96
Hero Honda 1853.40 Buy Above 1860 1819 2.20 1950 4.84
Kotak Bank 448.05 Buy Above 451 440 2.44 475 5.32
PNB 1114.05 Buy Above 1120 1106 1.25 1150 2.68
* Stop Losses are to be considered on Closing basis only.
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com
3. Disclaimer
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.
This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report
is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or
solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal
recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its
accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability
arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own
professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide
for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment
grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying
charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not
match with a report on a company’s fundamentals.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a
reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us
from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be
subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy
or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities
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recommendation and related information and opinions.
The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the
subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly
related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent.
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com