The domestic stock markets declined on negative global cues. The markets opened lower and saw selling pressure in the morning, but recovered slightly from lower levels due to short covering and selective buying. However, weak European market cues caused the markets to drift lower again. Technically, market breadth was negative with lower volumes, and indicators like RSI, MACD and KST were in negative territory, suggesting further downside. The Nifty closed below the key 4987 support level. Global cues remain largely negative and the domestic markets are likely to see a gap down opening.

1. Daily Technical Outlook
3rd October 2011
Indices Close % Chg. Mirroring the negative set of global market cues, the domestic
BSE SENSEX 16453.76 -1.46 markets witnessed a negative opening. Selling pressure was
S&P CNX NIFTY 4943.25 -1.44 witnessed in the morning sessions. However, the markets
NIFTY OCT. FUT. 4934.30 -1.91 managed to bounce back from lower levels due to short
India VIX 31.94 2.80
covering and selective buying support. The overall trend
remained range bound and lackluster. Lack of follow up
S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels buying support and weak European market cues saw the
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
markets drift lower. Selling pressure gained momentum in the
afternoon trade as Nifty breached the 4987 support level. The
Support 4757 4563 4387
markets ended the day with moderate losses to close near
Resistance 4987 5161 5211
the lows for the day. The top losers for the day were Rel.
Capital, Rel. infra, Rel. Comm., Axis bank, SAIL, Tata Steel,
Volume (Lacs Shares)
Rel. Power, Sterlite, GAIL and Kotak Bank.
30/09/11 29/09/11 % Chg.
BSE 2225 1845 20.60 Technically, the market breadth remained negative
NSE 5851 6854 -14.62 amidst lower volumes. The global market set of cues are
Total 8076 8699 -7.15 largely negative. The domestic markets are likely to
Source – BSE & NSE witness a gap down to negative opening. The Nifty has
once again closed below the crucial 4987 level, which
Turnover ( ` Crores)
would lead to further selling pressure Moreover, the RSI,
30/09/11 29/09/11 % Chg.
MACD and KST are placed in the negative territory and
BSE 2489.43 2272.12 9.56 would lead to selling pressure. Further, the KST and
NSE 11264.55 13121.62 -14.15 MACD are placed in the negative territory. The Nifty
NSE F&O 93879.20 227880.21 -58.80 continues to trade below its 200-day SMA. Moreso, the
Total 107633.18 243273.95 -55.76 50-day SMA remains placed below the 100-day SMA. The
Source – BSE & NSE only silver lining for the market remains the KST and
Market Breadth (NSE)
Stochastic are placed above their respective averages,
which is a positive sign and would lead to buying
Advances 494
support at lower levels. The ADX, +DI line and –DI line
Declines 950
care moving sideways and indicates a range bound
Same 81 trend. The market sentiment has turned negative. Now, it
Total 1525 is important that the Nifty moves and sustains above the
A/D Ratio 0.52 : 1 4987 level for it to test the 5161-5211 resistance zone. If it
Source – NSE fails then we are likely to drift lower to once again test he
Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY 4757 support level. In the meanwhile the markets would
50 Day SMA 5129.06
take cues from the global markets. The support levels for
◄Negative Nifty are placed at 4757, 4563 and 4387. The Nifty faces
100 Day SMA 5317.86
resistance at the 4987, 5161, 5211 and 5325 levels.
200 Day SMA 5496.57 ◄Negative
Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support
Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
BSE SENSEX 16454 16535 16664 16875 17215 16324 16194 15854
S&P CNX NIFTY 4943 4964 5004 5066 5167 4903 4863 4762
NIFTY OCT. FUT. 4934 4962 5004 5073 5184 4893 4851 4740
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)
Stop
Initiation Stop Loss Target
Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks
Axis Bank 1018.90 Sell Below 1013 1035.00 2.17 965 4.74
TGT of 680
Achieved
given @ 707
Bajaj Holdings 719.40 Sell Below 711 725.50 2.04 679 4.50 on 30/09/11
Escorts 70.75 Sell Below 70 73.25 4.64 63 10.00
* Stop Losses are to be considered on Closing basis only.
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com

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