The domestic Indian markets opened lower on weak global cues but recovered from the lows due to short covering and selective buying. However, lack of follow up buying pressure and continued selling due to weak European markets caused the indices to slip into the red. The markets ended the day with moderate losses near the lows, as selling pressure increased in the afternoon. Technically, the market breadth remained weak with lower volumes and various technical indicators signaling further downside.

1. Daily Technical Outlook
16th November 2011
Indices Close % Chg. Mirroring the negative set of global market cues, the domestic
BSE SENSEX 16882.67 -1.38 markets witnessed a weak opening. However, the markets
S&P CNX NIFTY 5068.50 -1.55 managed to bounce back from the lows on back of short
NIFTY NOV. FUT. 5078.20 -1.51 covering and selective buying support. However, lack of
India VIX 25.97 2.68
follow up buying support and sustained selling due to weak
European market opening saw markets slip in red. Selling
S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels pressure gained momentum in the afternoon session as
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
markets slipped sharply. The markets ended the day with
moderate losses to close near the lows for the day. The top
Support 5037 4987 4750
losers for the day were DLF, JP Associates, Rel. Comm.,
Resistance 5161 5230 5325
M&M, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Siemens, Ranbaxy, and SAIL.
Volume (Lacs Shares) Technically, the market breadth remained weak amidst
15/11/11 14/11/11 % Chg. lower volumes. The global market set of cues are mix.
BSE 2209 2522 -12.41 The domestic markets are likely to witness a flat opening.
NSE 6177 6117 0.99 The prevailing technical negatives continue to weigh on
Total 8386 8639 -2.92 market sentiment and further selling pressure is likely as
Source – BSE & NSE the Nifty trades below the 5161 support level. The Nifty
has slipped below its 50-day SMA, which is again a short
Turnover ( ` Crores)
term negative. The RSI, KST, Stochastic and MACD are
15/11/11 14/11/11 % Chg.
placed below their respective averages. The Nifty
BSE 2229.15 2356.53 -5.41 continues to trade below its 200-day SMA. Further the 50-
NSE 9499.25 9648.82 -1.55 day SMA remains placed below the 100-day SMA. All
NSE F&O 133749.49 102318.48 30.72 these conditions would lead to selling pressure. The
Total 145477.89 114323.83 27.25 ADX, +DI line and –DI line are moving sideways, but –DI
Source – BSE & NSE line has started moving higher. The only saving grace for
Market Breadth (NSE)
the market is that the Stochastic is placed in the over
sold territory, which would lead to intermediate bouts of
Advances 190
short covering. The market sentiment remains negative.
Declines 1315
Now, it is important that the Nifty moves and sustains
Same 39 above the 5161 level for it to test the upper end of this
Total 1544 resistance zone placed at the 5230 level. If it fails further
A/D Ratio 0.14 : 1 selling pressure is likely and Nifty is likely to breach the
Source – NSE psychologically important 5000 level. In the meanwhile
Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY the markets would take cues from the global markets and
50 Day SMA 5068.61
crude prices as Rupee trades above the 50 level against
◄Negative the dollar. The support levels for Nifty are placed at 5037,
100 Day SMA 5214.93
4987 and 4750. The Nifty faces resistance at the 5161, 5230,
200 Day SMA 5384.08 ◄Negative
5325, 5387 and 5517.
Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support
Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
BSE SENSEX 16883 16964 17091 17299 17633 16756 16630 16295
S&P CNX NIFTY 5069 5093 5134 5199 5305 5028 4987 4882
NIFTY NOV. FUT. 5078 5106 5148 5218 5330 5036 4994 4882
Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technicals), Email Id sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Chat Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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2. Short Term Trading Ideas Based On Technical Analysis (5 - 7 Days)
Stop
Initiation Stop Loss Target
Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks
Aban 403.05 Sell Below 397.50 405.40 1.99 380.00 4.40
DLF 207.35 Sell Below 205.50 219.00 6.57 176.00 14.36
IRB 149.70 Sell Below 146.00 136.00 -6.85 136.00 6.85
M&M 759.25 Sell Below 752.50 767.00 1.93 720.00 4.32
* Stop Losses are to be considered on Closing basis only.
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
www.keynotecapitals.com

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