Keynote Speech II: “A Look at International Network Capacity and Traffic Trends in Africa over the last 5 years”

Let’s Start with the Global Picture
Inter-Regional Internet Bandwidth, 2015

Shift Away from the U.S.
Regional Capacity Connected to the U.S. & Canada, 2006-2015

Growth Has Slowed
International Internet Bandwidth Global Growth

Private Networks Have Grown
International Internet, Private Network, and Switched Voice Capacity

IP Transit Prices Still Dropping
Median 10 GigE IP Transit Prices in Major Global Cities

Submarine Capacity Growth
2002 - 2015

2002

2010

2015

The Future

Lots of New Capacity in Africa
International Internet Bandwidth Growth - Africa

Even Faster Growth in SSA
Int’l Internet Bandwidth Growth – Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa is the Fastest Growing Region
International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region, 2011-2015

What Has Changed?
• Sub capacity reaches 33 countries vs just 10
before 2009 (60 landing points vs 12)
• Seven countries have access to 3 or more
cables
• Africa is world’s fastest growing region for
Internet bandwidth growth over last five years
• Int’l Internet capacity increased more that
400% since 2011 (500% in SSA)

(Still) Mostly Connected to Europe
Major International Internet Routes in Africa, 2015

Where in Europe? France & UK (Still)
Share of Int’l Internet Bandwidth Connected to Africa

Europe Has Become the Hub Not
Just for Africa…
Changes in Subregional Capacity Connected to Europe

Intra-Africa Connectivity Growth
Share of Africa Int’l Internet Bandwidth by Region, 2011 vs 2015

Growth of Small Routes
Country-to-Country Routes to Europe vs Within Africa 2015

Transit and Transport Pricing

IP Transit Port Prices Q2 2015
Median STM-1 IP Transit Prices in Africa, Q2 2015

Transport Prices Rapidly Decreasing
Median STM-1 Monthly Lease Prices in Africa, 2012-2015

African Routes in Line with Other Major
(High Cost) Routes
Median STM-1 IPL Price Trends on Major London Routes

Some Prices Have Not Dropped…
Nigeria
Kenya
South
Africa
Retail Residential Fixed Broadband Prices (1 & 2 Mbps Plans)

3G Mobile Subs Growing
3G & 4G Mobile Subscribers in Africa, 2010-2014

What Hasn’t Changed for Africa?
• African Internet capacity is still a small
fraction of total global capacity
– Int’l capacity connected to Africa only accounts for
1-2% global bandwidth
• Int’l bandwidth remains primarily on the
coast and connected to Europe
– Little cross-border capacity, terrestrial networks
• IP transit prices in Africa remain very high
– Lowest median price $75 per Mbps for an STM-1
vs where 10 Gbps increments are available, prices
rarely exceed $25 per Mbps and are below $1 in
Europe & the U.S.

Sum Up of Changes…
• Int’l Internet bandwidth within Africa has a
larger share
– Intra-Africa capacity 10% vs 2% in 2011
• Growth in number of routes between African
countries (under 1Gbps)
– Account for 2/3 small routes
• Wholesale IPT & IPL prices have dropped
– IPT prices reflect the cost of transport to a hub
country, so as transport prices fall so will IPT;
however, cross connect and backhaul fees remain
expensive

Outlook
• The surge of sub cable construction is largely
over and has infused the region with a
significant amount of lit and potential
capacity
• Terrestrial regional network construction has
started to take off, already see increase in
intra-African capacity

Outlook continued - Some Numbers
• Global int’l Internet bandwidth CAGR is
forecast to be 29% between 2014-2021
• Africa will be the fastest growing region
during this period with demand growing at a
pace of 44% per year
• Demand driven by 3G & 4G mobile
subscription growth - 200m (2015) to 573m
(2019) from 23% of total subs to 42%
• Anticipate Africa IP transit prices to decline at
a compounded annual rate of 29% slightly
higher than the global average of 25%

Patrick Christian
Senior Analyst
pchristian@telegeography.com

Keynote Speech II: “A Look at International Network Capacity and Traffic Trends in Africa over the last 5 years”

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Keynote Speech II: “A Look at International Network Capacity and Traffic Trends in Africa over the last 5 years”

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