International bw and data market

International BW and Data Market :
Compilation and Summary
Dr.Ir.Joko Suryana
Lab of RadioTelecommunications and Microwave
School of Electrical Engineering and Informatics
INSTITUTTEKNOLOGI BANDUNG

OUTLINE
• Introduction
• Market Drivers of New Cable
• Market Opportunities
• Global IPTraffic Growth
• RegionalTraffic Demand
• International Internet Bandwidth Growth,
2009–2013
• International InternetTraffic Growth by
Region, 2008–2012 (CAGR &Tbps)
• DemandTraffic &Traffic Direction
• Asia Pacific
• Europe
• US & Canada
• Middle East
• Regional Inbound/OutboundTraffic
Forecast 2014 – 2023
• Asia
• US
• Europe
• Traffic of Fixed, Mobile & Managed IP
• Regional Submarine Infrastructure
• TotalActivatedCapacity 2007-2012
• Capacity (Time MY)
• Proposed Routes
• Transpacific Cables
• SouthAsia & Middle East/Europe-
Asia
• Intra Asia
• China
• Australia, NZ, Hawaii & Guam

OUTLINE
• South East Asian Countries ICT Profiles
• International BW Demand
• Asia BW Usage
• ICT Profiles
• Cambodia
• Indonesia
• Laos
• Malaysia
• Myanmar
• Philippines
• Singapore
• Thailand
• Vietnam
• Summary
• International BW
• Bandwidth Pricing
• Fixed and Mobile Broadband
• Summary of Middle East Contries Profiles
• Demographical Status
• Telecom Revenues Contributions & Growth
• Telecom Penetration Rate
• InternationalConnectivity and BW
• TrafficGrowth in MENA Region
• InternationalVoiceTraffic
• Inbound – outbound
• Top International Voice Route 2012
• CurrentTrend
• Telecom Subscriber Profiling in Middle East
• Submarine Cables and International
Bandwidth in Middle East
• ICT Maturity Level of Each Country in
Middle East

OUTLINE
• Global Internet Consumption and
Content, Fixed & Mobile
• Monthly Consumption
• Traffic Composition & Changes
• Asia Pacific
• Europe
• US & Canada
• Resilience and Diversity
• Hazards to Submarine Cable
• Vulnerable Choke Points
• Resilience and Diversity in Asia
Pacific Countries
• Resilience and Diversity ofTata
Communications, NTT
Communications &Telstra
• Market Analysis
• Market Size 2011-2012
• Traffic Demand
• Trans Atlantic
• Intra Asia
• Middle East-Europe
• Middle East-Asia
• India-West
• India-East
• Asia-US & Canada
• Capacity Demand Growth vs Price
Decline
• Active SubmarineCable Systems
• Differing Motivations of Key
Competitors

OUTLINE
• New Route for Better New Services
• International IPXVoiceTraffic by Region
• Global HSPA-LTE Growth
• Global Growth of LTE
• World IDD vsVoIP International Traffic
• CDN Revenue vsTraffic
in Asia Pacific

Introduction
International BW and Data Market

Introduction
Market Drivers of New Cable
• Usage growth : fixed, mobile and broadband users growth
• New applications : more valuable content
• Demand vs. Supply : there is a capacity gap between submarine cable providers
and traffic demand
• Emerging markets : developing countries di Asia and Africa
• Route diversity : latency, resilence and disaster recovery plan
• Cost-effectiveness : USD/Mbps
• Technology : more reliable and more speed

Introduction
Market Opportunities
• Asia Pacific - strong demand, low penetration
• Australasia - strong demand but limited population
• Caribbean - regional in-fill
• IndianOcean - intra-regional connectivity
• Latin America - bubbling up
• Mediterranean Africa - connectivity to Europe
• Oceania - development funds available
• Persian Gulf - oil-rich, underserved especially Iraq
• Sub-Saharan Africa - lots of talk, few results
• Transatlantic - supply tightening

Introduction
Global IPTraffic Growth
Source : CISCO,VNI

International Internet Bandwidth Growth, 2009–2013

DemandTraffic
Asia Pacific
Year
Traffic
(Gbps)
2008 2.248
2009 3.737
2010 6.138
2011 9.571
2012 14.348
Source :Telegeography

Traffic Direction
Asia Pacific
Region
Traffic
Proportion
US & Canada 42 %
Europe 30 %
Africa 1 %
Intra Asia 27 %

Traffic Direction
Asia Pacific

DemandTraffic
Europe
Year
Traffic
(Gbps)
2008 10.857
2009 18.021
2010 27.526
2011 40.648
2012 78.357

Traffic Direction
Europe
Region
Traffic
Proportion
US & Canada 15 %
Asia 7 %
Africa 1 %
Intra Europe 77 %

Traffic Direction
Europe

DemandTraffic
US & Canada
Year
Traffic
(Gbps)
2008 5.071
2009 7.851
2010 11.882
2011 16.646
2012 25.171

Traffic Direction
US & Canada
Region
Traffic
Proportion
Europe 35 %
LATA 25 %
Asia 25 %
Intra USC 15 %

Traffic Direction
US & Canada

DemandTraffic
Middle East
Year
Traffic
(Gbps)
2008 348
2009 729
2010 1.303
2011 2.294
2012 3.448

Traffic Direction
Middle East
Region
Traffic
Proportion
Europe 20 %
US 35 %
Asia 25 %
Intra ME 20 %

Regional
Inbound/OutboundTraffic
Forecast 2014 – 2023

Inbound – Outbound
Asia
• New data fromTeleGeography’sGlobal Internet Geography research reveal that
international Internet capacity growth fell to the lowest pace in five years, decreasing
from 68% in 2008 to 40% in 2012.
• 2012 to 2017: as perVNI (Transpacific andAsia-Europe bandwidth growth at a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent)
• Slowing growth after 2017, assuming 2018-2022:CAGR 20%, 2023-2027:CAGR 15%,
and 2028-2031:CAGR 5%
• Source: 2007 - 2011,Telegeography Global Internet Map

US
from 68% in 2008 to 40% in 2012.
and 2028-2031:CAGR 5%

Europe
from 68% in 2008 to 40% in 2012.
and 2028-2031:CAGR 5%

Traffic of Fixed, Mobile & Managed IP
• In Asia Pacific, mobile data traffic will grow 9-fold from 2012 to 2017, a compound annual growth
rate of 56%.
• In North America, mobile data traffic will grow 17-fold from 2012 to 2017, a compound annual
growth rate of 76%.
• InWestern Europe, mobile data traffic will grow 13-fold from 2012 to 2017, a compound annual
growth rate of 67%
• In Central and Eastern Europe, mobile data traffic will grow 13-fold from 2012 to 2017, a
compound annual growth rate of 66%.

Regional Submarine
Infrastructure

Total Activated
Transpacific Capacity 2007-2012
Source :Terabit Consulting 2013

Time MY
Trans Pacific Cable Capacity

South Asia & Middle East /
Europe-Asia

Time MY
South Asia & Middle East/Europe-Asia Cable Capacity

Proposed South Asia & Middle East/Europe-
Asia

Intra Asia, 2007-2012

Time MY
Intra Asia Cable Capacity

China

Australia, NZ, Hawaii & Guam

South East Asian Countries
ICT Profiles

Growing Demand
in South East Asia

Cambodian
Source :Terabit Consulting 2013Source :Telegeography

Cambodia
1. Delayed development of international connectivity due to historical dependence on satellite.
2. Cambodia is one of the few coastal countries in the world without direct access to a submarine fibre optic
cable; construction and maintenance agreement for Asia‐America Gateway trans‐Pacific cable (2010) did not
provide for a Cambodian landing point, but a new Malaysia‐Cambodia‐Thailand cable is under consideration.
3. Telcotech joined AAG consortium in 2007 but was left to negotiate for bandwidth on the cable through
“reasonably‐priced backhaul agreements” with the cable’s landing parties inThailand andViet Nam;Telcotech
was purchased by Ezecom in 2011 and its terrestrial connectivity to AAG throughThailand and Viet Nam was
expected to be increased from 10 Gbps to 100 Gbps.
4. The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Information Highway Project provides terrestrial connectivity to Lao
PDR,Thailand, andViet Nam, operated byTelecom Cambodia.
5. Viettel Cambodia (MilitaryTelecommunications Company) operates dual terrestrial fibre optic paths from
Cambodia toViet Nam.
6. The Cambodia‐Viet Nam High‐SpeedTransmission Line was launched byTelecom Cambodia and VNPT group
in April 2012.
7. TheThailand‐Cambodia‐Viet Nam‐Hong Kong Fibre Highway initiative was announced in March 2012, with
NeocomISP as the Cambodian partner, allowing access to international submarine cables in Hong Kong.
8. As of 2012,Thai operatorTOT and ChinaTelecom were reportedly exploring a partnership to build terrestrial
fibre links between Cambodia, China, Lao PDR, Russia,Thailand, and Viet Nam.
9. The governments of Cambodia and Lao PDR signed a memorandum of understanding in 2013 to improve fibre
optic connectivity between the two countries.
10. The proposed Cambodian submarine cable project (2008) did not move forward.

Indonesia

Indonesia
1. Not well‐served by interregional submarine cable systems: Indonesia’s only
intercontinental/interregional link is SEA‐ME‐WE‐3, which is 14 years old and
connects 33 countries in Europe,Africa, Asia, and Australia.
2. Between 2003 and 2010, six submarine cable systems were constructed between
Indonesia and Singapore, and further submarine connectivity was constructed to
Malaysia andThailand.
3. As a result of the half‐dozen Indonesia‐Singapore links constructed within the last
decade, the majority of Indonesia’s international Internet bandwidth now transits
throughSingapore.
4. Industry observers in Indonesia have pointed to its comparative shortage of direct
interregional bandwidth as potentially placing the country at a competitive
disadvantage versus Malaysia and Singapore in capturing foreign IT investment.
5. The Asia‐America Gateway (AAG) submarine cable entered service in January of
2010, and although it does not land in Indonesia, PTTelekomunikasi Indonesia is a
member of the consortium and accesses the cable via the 55‐kilometre
Batam‐Singapore Cable System (BSCS), constructed in 2009.
6. Limited Interregional connectivity and strong dependence on Singapore for transit
capacity

LaoPDR

Lao PDR
1. Lao PDR‐China terrestrial cable crosses the border at Boten (linking to China
Telecom at 2 Gbps)
2. Lao PDR‐Thailand terrestrial cable via Friendship Bridge I (linking to CATTelecom
at 5 Gbps)
3. Lao PDR‐Thailand terrestrial cable via Friendship Bridge II (linking to CATTelecom
at 2 Gbps)
4. Lao PDR‐Viet Nam terrestrial cable (Dansavanh‐Lao Bao) (linking toVNPT
subsidiary Viet Nam Data Communication (VDC) at 5 Gbps)
5. Lao PDR‐Viet Nam terrestrial cable (Namphao‐CauTreo) (linking toVDC at 5
Gbps)
6. Lao PDR‐Cambodia terrestrial cable atVeun Kham (linking to Cambodia Telecom
at 2.5 Gbps)
7. Trans‐border links form part of China‐Southeast Asia Cable and Greater Mekong
Subregion Information Highway Project, thereby providing onward connectivity
to Malaysia and Singapore.
8. No direct Interregional connectivity; terrestrial trans‐border links operate at low

Malaysia

Malaysia
1. Benefited from Europe‐Asia submarine cables (FLAG Europe‐Asia and SEA‐ME‐WE‐3) in late 1990s,
SAFE cable to SouthAfrica in 2002, and SEA‐ME‐WE‐4 in 2005.
2. Pan‐EastAsian regional connectivity provided by APCN‐2 (2002) andAsia Submarine‐cable Express
(2012);Telekom Malaysia retained two fibre pairs in the latter, which comprise “Cahaya Malaysia”.
3. TheAsia‐America Gateway (AAG) entered service in 2010 and provides direct connectivity from
Malaysia and Southeast Asia to the United States.
4. Malaysian operatorTime dotCom is a 10% shareholder in the trans‐Pacific Unity system between Japan
and the United States.
5. Konsortium Renkaian Serantau (KRS) (Regional Network Consortium) was formed by 24 Malaysian
operators in 2011 with the goal of driving down the price of international bandwidth; KRS also
considered the construction of a trans‐Pacific submarine cable to the United States.
6. Regional submarine cables serving Malaysia include Malaysia‐Thailand, Malaysia‐Thailand East and
West, the East‐West SubmarineCable System, the Dumai‐MelakaCable System (DMCS), the
Batam‐RengitCable System (BRCS), and the Batam‐Duamai‐MalaccaCable System (BDM).
7. Terrestrial links to bothThailand and Singapore are operated byTelekom Malaysia, and theTime
dotCom Cross‐Peninsular Cable System (CPCS) also links to those two countries.
8. Malaysia benefits from strong links to its regional neighbours, as well as good connectivity to Europe,
Africa, and North America.

Myanmar

Myanmar
1. Myanmar’s primary international link is the SEA‐ME‐WE‐3 submarine cable, on which two
10‐Gbps wavelengths are reportedly lit.
2. Terrestrial links provide trans‐border connectivity to China,Thailand, and India.
3. Myanmar Posts andTelecommunications (MPT) and Bangladesh SubmarineCable Company
Limited (BSCCL) are implementing a terrestrial link between Myanmar and the SEA‐ME‐WE‐4
cable station in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh in order for both countries to take advantage of each
other’s submarine cable connections.
4. A $40 million branch to Myanmar on the proposed SEA‐ME‐WE‐5 submarine cable has
reportedly been financed by China Unicom, leading to speculation that Chinese operators may
use the branch as a redundant path for westbound Chinese demand, or as a platform for future
Chinese investment in Myanmar’s newly liberalized telecommunications market, or will sell
transit capacity to South Asian markets such as India and Bangladesh.
5. CATTelecom ofThailand is reportedly exploring the construction of a $41‐million, 800‐kilometre
link between Satun,Thailand and Dawei, Myanmar, the planned site of a deepwater port and
special economic zone.
6. Current International connectivity is primarily through the SEA‐MEWE‐3 cable, which was
constructed in 1999; however, a link to SEAME‐WE‐4 via Bangladesh and the construction of a
branch on the proposed SEA ME‐WE‐5 cable would improve connectivity.

Philliphines

Philippines
1. PLDT operates three international submarine cable landing stations: Batangas City (for the
APCN‐2 and SEA‐ME‐WE‐3 cables); Buang, La Union (for the trans‐Pacific Asia‐America
Gateway cable); and Daet, Camarines Norte (for Asia Submarine‐cable Express).
2. GlobeTelecom operates two international submarine cable landing stations: Ballesteros,
Cagayan (forTGN Intra‐Asia) and Nasugbu, Batangas (for the Southeast Asia‐Japan Cable).
3. Pacnet’s pan‐Asian EAC‐C2C cable network has dual landings in the Philippines, in Capepisa,
Cavite and in Nasugbu, Batangas.
4. The country benefits from multiple submarine cable landing stations in different parts of the
northern Philippines, offering single‐system connectivity to Asia, Europe, Australia, Africa,
and North America.

Singapore

Singapore
1. Singapore is currently served by nine interregional submarine cable systems, with an
additional cable under construction and scheduled for activation in 2013.
2. An additional six submarine cable systems connect Singapore to its closest neighbours:
Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore.
3. Fibre links via Singapore’s causeway and bridge connect the country to Malaysian
terrestrial networks.
4. Singapore is a regional bandwidth hub and benefits from abundant, first‐class
intercontinental and regional connectivity; however, from an International perspective,
its concentration of undersea cables is viewed by some as a global “choke point”.

Thailand

Thailand
1. Thailand is served by the major Europe‐Asia submarine cables
(FLAG Europe‐Asia, SEA‐ME‐WE‐3, and SEAME‐WE‐4), as well
as the Asia‐America Gateway (AAG) trans‐Pacific system.
2. To date,Thailand has not participated in any of the major
pan‐EastAsian submarine cable projects, althoughCAT has
invested in the proposedAsia‐PacificGateway project, which
would enter service in 2014.
3. Trans‐border fibre optic links connectThailand to each of its
neighbours; its links to Malaysia, which provide onward
connectivity to Singapore, are particularly popular among
operators seeking to avoid the high IP transit costs charged by
CAT for the country’s submarine cable infrastructure.
4. CAT’s reported control over the country’s somewhat limited
intercontinental submarine infrastructure has led many operators
to utilize terrestrial links to Singapore.

Vietnam

Vietnam
1. Until recently,Viet Nam’s primary international connection was the SEA‐ME‐WE‐3 cable,
although the activation of theTGN Intra‐Asia submarine cable in 2009 and the
trans‐PacificAsia‐America Gateway cable the following year resulted in a dramatic
increase in international capacity.
2. Viet Nam has not participated in most regional pan‐Asian systems, but a new project, the
Asia‐PacificGateway, would feature the participation of threeVietnamese investors and
enter service in 2014.
3. Viet Nam has terrestrial fibre optic links to each of its three neighbours (Cambodia, Lao
PDR, and China), including connectivity via the Greater Mekong Subregion Information
Highway Project and the China‐SoutheastAsia Cable.
4. Viet Nam’s submarine cable connectivity is significantly less than other Asian nations.

Summary
International BW
Country International Bandwidth CAGR BW/capita

Summary
Fixed and Mobile Broadband

Summary of Middle East
Contries Profiles

Demographical Status of Middle East Countries

Telecom Revenue Growth 2008-2012

Telecom Penetration Rate
in MENA

Telecom Penetration Rate in MENA

International Connectivity and BW in MENA

Traffic Growth in MENA Region

International VoiceTraffic
Inbound and Outbond

Top InternationalVoice Route
2012

Middle East :
telecom subscriber profiling

Internet User Penetration Rates
in Middle East

Mobile Phone Penetration Rates
in Middle East

Mobile Subscribers
in Middle East

Fixed Line Penetration Rates
in Middle East

Fixed Line Subscribers
in Middle East

Fixed Broadband Penetration Rates
in Middle East

Fixed Broadband Subscribers
in Middle East

Wireless Broadband Penetration Rates
in Middle East

Mobile Broadband Subscribers in Middle
East

Middle east :
submarine cable and bandwith

Submarine Cable with Landing Points in Middle
East

Number of Connected Submarine Cable
per Country

International Internet Bandwidth in
Middle East

CAGR of International Internet BW in Middle East

Internet Exchange in Middle East Country

Internet Hosts per 10000 inhabitant di Middle East

Middle east :
ict maturity level

ICT Maturity Level : #1
• Maturity level 1: Iraq, Libya, the Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, and
Yemen
• This lowest level of maturity is characterized by the following:
• (a) low ICT penetration rates and unattractive telecom market conditions
that discourage personal and business usage;
• (b) scarce international connectivity to the Internet backbone;
• (c) poor Internet infrastructure and low dissemination, especially for
broadband, inadequate national backbone and limited number of
Internet players in the market.
• As compared to 2011, the Syrian Arab Republic was downgraded to
this level due to the negative effects of the ongoing armed conflict
on its infrastructure. Libya was rated in this level as well due to its
damaged ICT infrastructure as a result of the 2011 revolution.

• Maturity level 2: Egypt, Morocco, Palestine, andTunisia
• This level of maturity is characterized by the following:
• (a) average ICT penetration rates and increasingly attractive telecom market conditions for
personal and business usage;
• (b) developing international connectivity to the Internet backbone;
• (c) improving Internet infrastructure and fair dissemination of broadband services, adequate
national backbone and active Internet players market.
• Member countries classified in this level retained their status from 2011 while the
new member countries Morocco andTunisia attained this level in 2013.

• Maturity level 3: Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Oman
• (a) above-average ICT penetration rates and attractive telecom market conditions
promoting personal and business usage;
• (b) solid international connectivity to the Internet backbone;
• (c) comparatively good Internet infrastructure and strong broadband Internet
dissemination, good national backbone and active Internet players market.
• Lebanon stepped forward to this level since 2011 owing to notable growth in its
mobile phone services, elevated Internet penetration growth rates, especially for
fixed and mobile broadband, introduction of mobile broadband services, and
massive growth in international Internet bandwidth.

• 4. Maturity level 4: Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates
• (a) world-class ICT penetration rates and very attractive telecom market conditions
promoting personal and business usage;
• (b) highly developed international connectivity to the Internet backbone;
• (c) very strong Internet infrastructure and elevated broadband Internet dissemination,
world-class national backbone and recognized Internet players.
• Saudi Arabia attained this level in 2013 owing to its elevated penetration rates and
usage level, especially for broadband Internet services and a favourable and
competitive telecom sector.

ICT Maturity Ranking in Middle East
Country

Global Internet
Consumption & Content

Global Internet Consumption and Content 2013
• Asia-Pacific mobile networks crossed a significant threshold, with average monthly mobile
usage now exceeding 1 gigabyte.This consumption is driven by streaming audio and video,
which accounts for 50% of peak downstream traffic.
• In US&Canada, the dominance of Real-Time Entertainment is due in large part to the
continued market leadership of Netflix andYouTube, which when combined now account
for over half of the downstream traffic during peak period.
• In other regions such as Europe and Asia,YouTube continues to be the largest single source
of Real-Time Entertainment traffic on both fixed and mobile access networks, which makes
it the leading source of Internet traffic in the entire world.
• In Europe, Netflix, less than two years since launch, now accounts for over 20% of
downstream traffic on certain fixed networks in the British Isles. It took almost four years
for Netflix to achieve 20% of data traffic in the United States.

Internet Consumption &
Contents
ASIA Pacific 2013

Monthly Consumption 2013
Asia Pacific, Fixed

Traffic Composition 2013
Asia Pacific, Fixed

Asia Pacific, Mobile

Contents
Europe 2013

Europe, Fixed

Europe, Mobile

Contents
US & Canada 2013

US & Canada, Fixed

US & Canada, Mobile

Hazards to Submarine Cable
• Submarine cables are susceptible to damage. Cable systems may be
disrupted for a number of reasons, each of which has a different profile in
terms of the likelihood that their occurrence could damage the overall
network performance of an economy.
• The hazards to submarine cable-bound communication can be categorized
into three groups:
• natural hazards to the cables themselves
• man-made hazards to the cables themselves
• hazards to the remaining infrastructure, especially landing stations and IT network
management systems.

Natural Hazards
to Submarine Cables
• Natural causes for cable disruptions are quite unusual.They include
current abrasions and earthquakes which cause around 12% of all faults.
• Only in water depths of more than 1000 m are they the major cause of
damage to submarine cables. However, when they happen they usually
cause devastating damage, often to a large number of cables.
• This makes them much more hazardous to the overall network
performance than those hazards which affect only single cables.
• Typical events in this category are:
• Submarine earthquakes, fault lines and related landslides break or bury cables
• Density currents break or bury cables
• Currents and waves cause abrasion, stress and fatigue of material
• Tsunami, storm surge and sea level rise cause damage to coastal installations
• Extreme weather (e.g. hurricanes) breaks or buries cables
• Rarely icebergs or volcanic activities cause damage to cables

Man-made Hazards
to Submarine Cables
• In comparison to natural hazards, man-made causes for submarine cable disruption
count for the far larger number of events and are more likely to occur.
• Around 70% of all cable faults are caused by fishing and anchoring in depths of less
than 200 m.
• In water depths of less than 1000 m human activity is the main hazard to submarine
cables, natural impacts cause less than 10% of cable damage in this area.
• Globally, 100-150 cables are broken per year by fishing or anchoring.
• Man-made hazards typically only affect those parts of the cables which are close to
land and where they are in relatively shallow water and therefore in the range of
ships’ nets and anchors.

Hazards to Landing Stations,
Maintenance Ships and the IT
Environment
• Interestingly, most debates and publications about dangers to submarine
cable systems only focus on the cables themselves.
• However, since the cable infrastructure constitutes just one component of
the overall communications system, other parts of the network have to be
taken into account as well.

Vulnerable Choke Points
• Three especially vulnerable choke points that require special attention were
identified:
• The Strait of Malacca between Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia;
• The Strait of Luzon between ChineseTaipei and the Philippines
• The South China Sea.

Geographic Diversity by New Cable Routes
Between Europe and Asia through the Arctic
Sea
• These new cable systems in particular will considerably improve overall network
stability and resilience:
• Their route through the Arctic region avoids areas which are infamous for being failure-
prone "choke points" such as the Luzon Strait near ChineseTaipei, the Strait of Malacca
between Indonesia and Malaysia, and the South China Sea as well as the Suez Canal.
• The cables create an entirely new redundant route as a geographic alternative to the
existing cables.
• These new cables will improve the network stability by following routes that are much less
likely to be struck by the most common disruptions, man-made hazards, as they are far
away from traditional shipping and fishing routes.
• A second major benefit in addition to increased overall network resilience will be a
reduced latency for connections between Europe and Asia.

Easing geographic congestion for
Australia and New Zealand by adding new
routes
• Another group of cable systems will create additional and, more importantly,
geographically diverse connections for Australia and to some extent indirectly for New
Zealand.As both economies are islands, they are entirely dependent on submarine cables
for their participation in the global data network.
• The Australian continent is currently mainly connected at the east coast with all cables
landing in one regional beacon, the area around Sydney.This includes Southern Cross,
Australia-JapanCable,Telstra Endeavour and PIPE PPC-1.
• There is just one cable on the west coast, SeaMeWe-3, landing in Perth, but this is a
relatively old cable built in 1999 with only a very limited capacity of 90 Gbps.
• Only two cables have a direct connection to the main sources of internet traffic: SeaMeWe-
3 directly connectsAustralia and Europe and Southern Cross is the only direct connection to
the US mainland.

Reducing risks at the Luzon Strait for Chinese
Taipei using new direct cable links to China
• The Luzon Strait between ChineseTaipei Island and Luzon Island
(Philippines) is an area of high cable density but also of frequent disruptions
as it is very prone to earthquakes.
• Virtually all important cables linking ChineseTaipei to the world go through
this choke point.
• The high geographic concentration of cables and a lack of alternative cables
and routes imply a certain risk of loss of traffic and decline in connection
speed and quality, as events such as earthquakes or storms may harm
several cables at once.

Resilience and Diversity
ASPAC Countries
• Australia will potentially have improved geographic diversity in the coming
years due to a number of proposed additional submarine cables.
• This will reduce both the effects of submarine cable faults and possibly also the price
level domestic users have to pay for bandwidth.
• Brunei is well connected given its size with two landing stations, three
submarine cable systems and the possibility of overland connectivity to
Malaysia.

ASPAC Countries
• China has reduced its reliance on submarine cables by the establishment of a direct
overland connection to Europe via Russia.
• Furthermore, it is linked via an overland connection to Hong Kong, China and its multitude
of submarine cable systems and has its own access to seven submarine cable systems, with
three further ones planned to land at ten landing stations.
• It is thus well covered even accounting for its exploding bandwidth growth.
• Hong Kong, China: As a major internet (and trade) hub, submarine cable
connectivity is of special economic importance.
• However, this means traffic outages are likely to have a severe impact on other South-East
Asian economies as well. Overall connectivity is thus very large and important not only to
Hong Kong, China itself but also to the region in general.

ASPAC Countries
• Indonesia: Due to its geographic position and the routing of international
traffic and most submarine cables, Indonesia heavily relies on Singapore as
a hub for international connectivity.
• Otherwise, Indonesia should build new submarine route which for providing alternate
diversity and also picking up internet traffic at East Region of Indonesia
• Japan:The earthquake in March 2011 has shown that Japan’s submarine
cable infrastructure is vulnerable to such events but sufficiently protected
by various measures to control major effects on traffic.
• However, withTokyo as a major international traffic hub, Japan’s international
connectivity is also important to other economies in the region.

ASPAC Countries
• Korea: Even though not an island, Korea’s reliance on submarine cables is island-
like due to the lack of availability of an overland route through North Korea.
• It is one of the largest bandwidth users in the region but has access to a geographically
diverse network.
• It has access to five submarine cables with four additional ones being planned landing at a
total of three locations.
• Malaysia can easily establish overland connectivity to Singapore, one of the main
internet hubs in the region.
• Malaysia has access to nine submarine cable systems with two more planned for landing at
four geographically different points.
• In addition landing points in Brunei Darussalam can be utilized.

ASPAC Countries
• New Zealand has only access to one submarine cable in scope today (also to a
smaller one linking it to Australia), which however is built in such a way that it
provides redundancy as if it were two separate cables (ring structure). In addition,
two more submarine cable systems are planned.These cables land at three
different landing points.
• Papua New Guinea relies on submarine cables like an island.The deployment of
connectivity to Guam - where various submarine cable systems land - provides an
alternative route to the one to Australia.
• With two landing stations and two submarine cable systems, connectivity is redundant
especially when taking into account Papua New Guinea’s very low demand for bandwidth.

ASPAC Countries
• The Philippines: Due to many submarine cables landing on the Philippines
while passing by, international capacity far exceeds domestic demand.
• There are six different landing points for submarine cables, all but one on the western
coast.This also prevents the Philippines from being able to offer a fully redundant
overland alternative to cables passing through the Strait of Luzon, one of the
bottlenecks in the region.
• Singapore, the other significant data hub in South East Asia besides Hong
Kong, China is connected by a multitude of submarine cables.
• Thus, capacity is not only serving domestic needs. No threat or area needing
improvement is identified by the model, although the situation in the Strait of Malacca
should be closely monitored.

ASPAC Countries
• ChineseTaipei is another of the few economies in scope where further submarine
cables could decrease the effects of large submarine cable outages.The reliance on
cables passing through the Strait of Luzon is high today but alternative cables
towards China are being planned.
• However, an additional cable on this side may be helpful to establish full redundancy and to
avoid loss of any traffic towards the end of the decade after outages in the Strait of Luzon.
• Thailand has access to submarine cables both on its western as well as on its
eastern coast, even though some are of limited capacity. In addition, overland
capacity to Singapore is an option.
• Thailand thus has sufficient redundant cables.Thailand could be able to offer an overland
alternative to cables passing through the Strait of Malacca, one of the bottlenecks in the
region.

Tata Communications

NTT Communications

Telstra

Market Size 2011-2012
Route
Market Size
2011 (Gbps)
Market Size
2012 (Gbps)
Trans Atlantic 13000 18600
IntraAsia 9500 13360
Middle East-West 600 880
Middle East-East 220 330
India-West 700 1060
India-East 570 880
Asia-US&Canada 8500 11760

Traffic Demand :
Trans Atlantic
Europe US & Canada

Traffic Demand :
Intra Asia
Asia X AsiaY

Traffic Demand :
Middle East-Europe
Middle East Europe

Traffic Demand :
Middle East-Asia
Middle East Asia

Traffic Demand :
India-West
South Asia Europe/ME

Traffic Demand :
India-East
South Asia East Asia

Traffic Demand :
Asia – US & Canada
Asia – US & Canada (Tbps )
Asia US&Canada

Capacity Demand Growth vs Price
Decline

Active Submarine Cable Systems

Differing Motivations of Key Competitors
Each route has
different key
players and
different
demand and
price dynamics

New Route for Better New
Services

International IPXVoiceTraffic by Region
Source: HotTelecoms, LAPI ITB
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Asia 44 66 91 128 172 196 233 269 302 335 371 405 439 473 508
Europe 44 66 95 119 157 180 210 239 269 296 326 355 384 413 442
North America 22 29 44 62 71 85 99 112 125 139 152 165 178 192 205
Latin America 1 4 7 11 20 22 27 33 38 42 48 53 57 62 68
MEA 1 4 7 11 22 24 30 36 42 46 53 58 64 69 75
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Billion Minutes

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Asia 4.990 6.710 7.622 9.065 10.496 11.787 13.044 14.472 15.782 17.093 18.441 19.791
Europe 4.645 6.108 7.003 8.183 9.325 10.483 11.542 12.721 13.839 14.961 16.085 17.228
North America 2.409 2.753 3.295 3.875 4.369 4.852 5.411 5.923 6.427 6.953 7.478 7.988
Latin America 430 774 852 1.060 1.282 1.477 1.640 1.860 2.051 2.238 2.433 2.634
MEA 430 860 920 1.158 1.412 1.635 1.810 2.064 2.278 2.488 2.707 2.935
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Gbps
International IPXVoiceTraffic by Region
Source: HotTelecoms, LAPI ITB
Assumed:
• LTETraffic
• HD and SD voice ratio = 30:70
• Voice activity : 15 hours per day

World IDD vsVoIP InternationalTraffic
Sumber: HotTelecoms

CDN Revenue vsTraffic
in Asia Pacific
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue 314 417 583 806 1.08 1.36 1.60 1.77 2.00 2.22 2.45 2.67 2.89 3.12 3.34
Traffic 9 14 22 34 52 72 99 102 117 132 147 162 176 191 206
-
50
100
150
200
250
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
Traffic(1000xPB)
Revenue(MillionUSD)
Source: InformaTelecoms & Media, LAPI ITB.

International bw and data market

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