Uncertainty is the most significant source of both challenge and opportunity confronting About UCI Applied Innovation: UCI Applied Innovation is a dynamic, innovative central platform for the UCI campus, entrepreneurs, inventors, the business community and investors to collaborate and move UCI research from lab to market. About the Cove @ UCI: To accelerate collaboration by better connecting innovation partners in Orange County, UCI Applied Innovation created the Cove, a physical, state-of-the-art hub for entrepreneurs to gather and navigate the resources available both on and off campus. The Cove is headquarters for UCI Applied Innovation, as well as houses several ecosystem partners including incubators, accelerators, angel investors, venture capitalists, mentors and legal experts. Follow us on social media: Facebook: @UCICove Twitter: @UCICove Instagram: @UCICove LinkedIn: @UCIAppliedInnovation For more information: cove@uci.edu http://innovation.uci.edu/

1. Executive Next Practices Institute (ENP Forums)
10 Years, Over 450 Forums &
27,000 attendees
C-suite/Key Leader
Decision Makers
Examine emerging trends,
technologies and business
strategies- all industries

2. Wild Card Management:
Defining, Forecasting & Managing Uncertainty
Presented by
Jim McComb
Wild Card Strategy
JimMcComb@WildCardStrategy.com

3. Uncertainty . . . The Unknown
The greatest challenge (and opportunity)
facing every business today

4. Doesn’t
planning clarify
Uncertainty?
Strategic
Planning
SWOT
Analysis
Business
Continuity
Sustainability

5. What is the “missing link”
in business planning?

6. Wild Card
Management

7. Surprise, high impact event, circumstance or technology
Arrives without warning
Not a trend or by-product of other events
Characterized by wide-reaching scope
Characterized by rapid change
Challenges the outermost reaches of human capacity
Develops quickly and demand rapid, cohesive response
Radically changes our outlook – and our lives - overnight

8. HOW TO
Start a
Business
Inc. Magazine: 96% of businesses are gone within ten years

9. So . . .
if a Wild Card is truly
“wild,” how can it
possibly be forecasted?

10. Wild Card Management: Step One
Define Potential Wild Cards
Answer Three Key Questions:
1. Do you believe anything is possible?
2. What would have to happen to render
your business (or your industry)
obsolete in the next 3-5 years?
3. What would have to happen in order to increase your revenue,
profitability or customer base tenfold or twentyfold in the next
3-5 years?

11. External Sources of Wild Cards
 Changing Socio-Demographics
 Growing Competition
 Global Economic Unrest
 Political, Legal & Regulatory Uncertainty
 Continuous Technological Change
 Industry Reinvention
 Evolving Consumer Lifestyles, Opinions
and Preferences
 Medicine
 Transportation
 Energy
 Education
 Science
 Faith
 Housing
 Commerce
 Defense & Security
 Natural Phenomena
 Social Structure

12. Internal Sources of Wild Cards
 Distribution Channels
 Supply Chain
 Production Processes
 Marketing Strategy
 Reputation
 Business Model
 Policies & Procedures
 Financial Structure
 Pricing Strategy
 Profitability
 Revenue
 Customers
 Employees
 Competitors
 Market Position
 Value Proposition
 Mission
 Vision

13. Wild Card Management: Step One
Bringing It All Together
Reflecting on your list of possible Wild Cards, build two future scenarios:
Use the Threat Wild Cards you identified to construct an “Obsolete” scenario
consistent with your answer to Key Question #2
Use the Opportunity Wild Cards you identified to construct a “Growth” scenario
consistent with your answer to Key Question #3
What does
your
business
look like?
What does
your
industry
look like?
What does
the world
look like?
SCENARIO

14. Plausible Wild Card Ranking Factors
 Is the change instant or evolutionary?
 How far-reaching is the scope of the change?
 How adaptable will your organization be to the change?
 How easy is the end result of the change to predict?
 How soon will the change become evident?
 How much resistance will the change meet?
 To what extent will the change impact your organization?
 How many sources of strategic foresight available?
 What is the net effect of the change?

15. Wild Card Management: Step Two
Identifying Wild Card Signals

16. Wild Card Signals: An Advance Warning System (aka “forecasting”)
 Inventions
 Research advances
 Process acceleration
 New discoveries
 Emerging synergies
 Increasing public fascination
 Changing public opinion
 New types of learning
 Emerging social and political
movements
 Failure of societal institutions
 Increasing social and cultural
problems
 Predictions
 Trends
 Patterns

17. Wild Card Signals: Sources of Strategic Foresight
 E-books & white papers
 National Centers for Disease Control
 Public opinion polls
 Research journals
 United Nations
 Futurists
 University professors
 Internet newsgroups
 Societies & institutes
 Websites & blogs
 Targeted television
 Government agencies
 Direct observation
 Trade associations
 Magazines & e-zines
 Social movements
 Start-ups
 Laboratories

18. Wild Card Management: Step Three
Create a Parallel Vision
 Parallel Vision articulates how Wild Card
threats to your company’s Strategic Plan
Vision will be mitigated or eliminated
 Parallel Vision incorporates Wild Card
opportunities into your Strategic Plan
 Formulate strategy to execute your
Parallel Vision
 Use the same process you used in
formulating strategy for your Strategic
Plan Vision

19. Questions
&
Answers
Jim McComb
JimMcComb@WildCardStrategy.com
909.592.1446

20. ENP Forums
at the COVE
2018

21. Feb 28, 2018