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Drought, Resilience, and Long-term Development

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Drought, Resilience, and Long-term Development

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Drought, Resilience, and Long-term Development

  1. 1. Drought, Resilience, and Long-term Development Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse International Food Policy Research Institute The Future of Ethiopia’s Agriculture: Towards a Resilient System to End Hunger and Undernutrition Addis Ababa Hilton December 15, 2017 Addis Ababa 1
  2. 2. 2 Outline  Drought  incidence and short-term impact  response: Relief, PSNP (Address short-term impact)  Resilience  Definition  PSNP  Log-term development  Premise – some long-term impact occur, vulnerabilities remain (food gap, stunting), progress,  Long term development – systems innovation; * Source: Authors’ calculation using data on daily rainfall in millimetres (mm) extracted from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) website (http://power.larc.nasa.gov/cgi.bin/cgiwrap/solar/hirestimeser.cgi?email=daily@larc.nasa.gov)
  3. 3. 3 Incidence and Impact of Drought *Source: EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database - Universite catholique de Louvain (UCL) - CRED, D. Guha-Sapir - www.emdat.be, Brussels, Belgium (Created on: December 03, 2017) Notes: Affected - People requiring immediate assistance during a period of emergency, i.e. requiring basic Year Total affected 1965 1,500,000 1969 1,700,000 1973 3,000,000 1983 7,750,000 1987 7,000,000 1989 6,500,000 1997 986,200 1998 1999 4,900,000 2003 12,600,000 2005 2,600,000 2008 6,400,000 2009 6,200,000 2011 4,805,679 2012 1,000,000 2015 10,200,000 Incidence of Drought in Ethiopia (1965-2015)*  Drought:  Recurrent;  Some widespread, others local;  Appear to increase in frequency (particularly in some parts of the country);  There are:  other weather shocks – flooding;  non-weather shocks – pests, human and animal health, economic;
  4. 4. 4 Incidence and Impact of Drought Source: Authors’ calculation using PSNP Surveys (2010-2016) data. PSNP Woredas (2008-20016) Shocks Incidence Impact "Low- lands" "High- lands" "Low- lands" "High- lands" Drought 56.3 45.8 Loss of household income 25.7 34.9 Reduction in household consumption 25.4 32.8 Pests or diseases that affected livestock 23.2 8.4 Loss of household income 22.0 32.6 Reduction in household consumption 23.7 12.6  Drought shocks have transitory and long-term impact;
  5. 5. 5 Incidence and Impact of Drought  Evidence of longer-term effects based on the 1984/85 drought/famine - Dercon (2004), Dercon and Porter (2014), Tafere (2017);  10% lower rainfall today associated with 1 percentage point decline in growth about 4–5 years later;  Greater severity associated with worse outcomes – about 16 percentage points lower growth; (Note: average CV of rainfall for the last 30 years in PSNP woredas has been 1.35)* ;  affected children aged 12-36 months are significantly shorter, by at least 5 cm, as adults (20 years later);  Second generation - Mothers’ exposure to famine in early childhood has a negative effect on their children’s health (height-for-age z- score), cognitive (number of years of schooling) and non-cognitive (locus of control) human capital; * Source: Authors’ calculation using data on daily rainfall in millimetres (mm) extracted from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) website (http://power.larc.nasa.gov/cgi.bin/cgiwrap/solar/hirestimeser.cgi?email=daily@larc.nasa.gov)
  6. 6. Response to drought shocks  Response has evolved over time, still is;  Relief – annual appeals system, shortcomings (delay, lack of predictability);  PSNP – coordinated, multi-year, predictable, ‘productive’  John’s and Kalle’s presentation on the nature and impact of PSNP  Part of comprehensive development planning;  Broad social protection agenda;
  7. 7. Resilience  Multiple conceptualisations of resilience and vulnerability;  Resilience  a recovery trajectory following a specific shock.  an ex-post approach (study reported below):  Impact of PSNP  beneficiaries recover after no more than 2 years, rather than taking up to four years) – resilience;  Considerable food gap remains;
  8. 8. PSNP, vulnerability, and resilience Findings – PSNP transfers reduce vulnerability and improve resilience (2006-2014)
  9. 9. 9 Vulnerabilities remain Source: Authors’ calculation using DHS (2005-2016) data. AEZ classification as earlier presentations. Stunting Incidence among Children Under 5 (%) 2005 2016 AEZ zone Non-PSNP PSNP Non-PSNP PSNP Drought prone 46 47 37 33 Pastoralist 50 60 35 34 Humid moisture reliable – Lowland 49 61 34 38 Moisture reliable – Cereal 50 55 38 25 Moisture reliable – Enset 55 42 38 40 Two examples:  Up to 75% more vulnerable people in drylands in 2030 (2010=100, medium fertility scenario)  Child Stunting;
  10. 10. 10 Long-term development  Premise  Progress - rapid agricultural growth, diversification into non-agriculture;  Accelerating agricultural transformation still necessary, doing so gets harder given the achievements so far;  There are compounding factors – environmental degradation, climate change, population growth;  Degradation: o Loss of top soil – over 14 million hectares of top soil have less than 50 cm depth, making it susceptible to drought. o Soil nutrient depletion – equivalent of 30 kg/ha of Nitrogen (N), and 15 to 20 kg/ha of phosphorous (P) are lost annually through erosion on cultivated lands. o the average annual on-site cost of soil erosion has been estimated between 2 and 6.7 % of AGDP’ (see Yusef et al. (2005) )
  11. 11. 11 Degradation
  12. 12. 12 Long-term development  Focus – drought-prone or drylands (AI of 0.05-0.65)  System perspective – challenges and opportunities should be viewed from a single economic space perspective – interlinked parts;  More integrated economy – greater integration is the most feasible avenue with the potential to generate enduring/sustainable solutions to the development challenge;
  13. 13. 13 Long-term development  Radical system-wide innovations necessary;  A 20-25 year programme to transform and integrate the drylands;  Food and nutrition security as an outcome of an integrated economy  An idea:  Degraded highlands – encourage a shift into tree crops and semi- modern dairy farming (with fodder production as a new and growing activity);  Lowlands – encourage expansion of cereal production, mobile livestock rearing;
  14. 14. 14 Long-term development  Some implications:  Invest on human capital – mobile schools and clinics;  Invest on water management in all areas – irrigation, better water use arrangements;  Invest on disease (human and animal) control and in less moisture reliable low lands;  Enhance the role of the private sector in agricultural input provision;  Promote well-defined and focused cooperatives, particularly in dairy production and development;  Potential - there appear to be considerable potential yet to be deployed productively in parts of the country;  Land – (next slide)  Water – renewable internal freshwater resources
  15. 15. 15 Cropped Land by AEZ (2004-2016) Source: Authors’ calculation using CSA’s AgSS (2004-2016) data. AEZ classification as earlier presentations. AEZ share in total surface area (%) AEZ cropped area in total cropped area (%) Cropped area share in total AEZ surface area (%) Number of woreda Drought prone, Highland 11.4 23.2 23.5 146 Drought prone, lowland; Pastoralist 50.9 3.5 0.8 139 Humid moisture reliable, lowland 11.9 4.4 4.3 52 Moisture reliable, highland - Cereal 20.1 57.5 32.9 264 Moisture reliable, highland - Enset 5.8 11.4 22.7 126
  16. 16. 16 Thank You
  17. 17. 17 Impact of PSNP on the Local Economy  PSNP has two components: Cash Transfer (CT) and Public Works (PW)  Community assets - Soil and water conservation (SWC), Irrigation, Roads, Schools, Clinics…  Most evaluation focuses on recipient households  But impacts may spread far beyond recipients: o Cash Recipients spend their money within their economy; o Public works affect agro-ecological and economic environment;  Implication  Need to evaluate the FULL impact;  Full impacts locally, and nationwide
  18. 18. PSNP, vulnerability, and resilience Findings – Impact (2006-2014)  PSNP transfers improve vulnerability and resilience  reduce food gap by half a month – ‘poverty’;  reduce the expected food gap, given a drought has occurred, from 4.14 months to 1.8 months (57% decline) – vulnerability;  reduce food gap by a further 1.75 months after a drought (beneficiaries recover after no more than 2 years, rather than taking up to four years) – resilience;  Robustness Check – Climate data
  19. 19. Impact of the PSNP on Productivity and Growth 19  Yield growth:  PSNP-related SWC infrastructures enhanced crop yields by 2.8 percent on average (econometric analysis);  Local Economy Impact:  PSNP generated income multipliers ranging from 1 to 2.4 ETB per ETB transferred depending on the kebele (eight LEWIE models);
  20. 20.  Significant productivity and growth challenges continue; Some findings 20 0.14% 0.14% 1.23% 1.23% 0.99% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% Cost Benefit GOE cost Donor cost value created Approximate costs and benefits of PSNP nationwide (% of GDP)  National Economy Impact: CGE estimates
  21. 21. Some Observations  There were/are challenges in the implementation of PSNP:  Arrears – early years, by and large successfully tackled;  Targeting in the ‘lowlands’ component – weak;  Graduation – need to know/understand more;  Considerable food security and vulnerability remains;  PSNP as a platform for response to shocks (relief delivery);  PSNP and regular social protection and capacity regeneration;  Development and resilience –  livelihood diversification – sedentary agricultural, non-farm activities…;  Investments in irrigation, education and health interventions;  Complementarity – addressing emergency, enhancing resilience, and promoting development

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