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Introduction to
    Risk Management




                                 Kannan Subbiah
                             Director, Operations
            Knowledge Universe Technologies India
                                                    1
Objectives
 Understanding Risk
 Risk Management as a process
 Exercise
 Q&A




                                 2
How to learn Risk Management?
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laKprX-HP94&feature=related




                                                               3
What is a Risk?
A risk is ANYTHING that may affect the achievement of
  an organization’s objectives.
It is the UNCERTAINTY that surrounds future events
    and outcomes.
It is the expression of the likelihood and impact of an
    event with the potential to influence the
    achievement of an organization’s objectives.




                                                          4
Alternatively …
 Risk is a potential event with negative consequences that
  had not happened yet
    Could also be an event with positive consequences
 A possibility of loss – not the loss itself
    A source of problem
    Find the root cause and not the leaves
 Something that makes the project special
    In the widest sense, everything is a risk
    Helps identify better ways of handling problems

                                                          5
Why do we need Risk Management?

The only alternative to risk management is crisis management --- and
crisis management is much more expensive, time consuming and
embarrassing.
                         JAMES LAM, Enterprise Risk Management, Wiley Finance © 2003




Without good risk management practices, government cannot
manage its resources effectively. Risk management means more
than preparing for the worst; it also means taking advantage of
opportunities to improve services or lower costs.
                                          Sheila Fraser, Auditor General of Canada



                                                                                       6
How does Risk Management help?

 Increase risk awareness & understanding
 Allows intelligent “informed” risk-taking.
 Focuses efforts –helps prioritize.
 Is proactive…. not reactive – Prepare for risks
  before they happen.
 Improve outcomes – achievement of objectives
 Enables accountability, transparency and
  responsibility
 And maybe even mean survival


                                                    7
Key Terms
 Risk – Exposure to chance of hazard
 Risk Level – A measure to represent the significance of the risk
 Controls – Action(s) that could eliminate or reduce the risk
  level
 Residual Risk – Risk level after implementing controls
 Risk Response – An action on the risk, whether to accept, or
  not to accept




                                                                     8
Exercise - I
 Think of a risk in your daily life
 Determine the probability of occurrence
 Make an assessment of an impact, if it occurs.




                                                   9
Who is involved?
 Customer
 End user
 Project Team
 Senior Management
 Related Project teams
 Vendors and suppliers




                          10
When?
 A continuous process
    Starts from proposal stage
    Ends on project completion

 Review stages
    Business case analysis
    Project approval
    Project planning
    Technology, Tools & Vendor selection
    Project status reviews
    Deployment and Maintenance




                                            11
Risk Management Basics
      Risk (uncertainty) may affect the achievement of
       objectives.
      Effective mitigation strategies/controls can reduce
       negative risks or increase opportunities.
      Residual risk is the level of risk after evaluating the
       effectiveness of controls.
      Acceptance and action should be based on residual
       risk levels.




  INHEREN
     T
                                                                 12
A Simple Framework

Step 1        Step 2       Step 3      Step 4     Step 5


                             Assess
                Identify               Evaluate
 Establish                  Risks &               Monitor
                Risks &                & Take
 Objectives                 Controls              & Report
                Controls                Action




               Communicate, learn, improve



                                                             13
Risk Identification Techniques


 Brainstorming
 Interviewing
 Root cause analysis
 Checklists
 SWOT

                                    14
Risk Management is critical to ALL levels of
    decisions
                                                                                                          UNCERTAINTY
                          Strategic Decisions

                                                      S trat
                                                            egi c          eg ic
                                                                    S trat
            Decisions transferring
             strategy into action
                                                                                  e
                                            Pro g                               mm
                                                 ra    mme                  gra
                                                                         Pro

Decisions required for
  implementation
                            Pro
                                jec                                                                   l
                                    t&                                                            ona
                                         Op e                                                ra ti
                                             r   atio                                 &   Ope
                                                      nal                       je ct
                                                                            Pr o




     Decisions can be categorized into three types. The amount of risk
     (uncertainty) varies with the type of decisions. Most decisions
     are concerned with implementation.         The HM Treasury’s The Orange Book 15
Risk Environment
                                                                     External Risk Environment

                                                                                   MOHLTC Extended
                                                                                       Extended
                                                                                      Enterprise




                                                                                                                                                            P ep
                                                                                                                                                            P

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                              gu ws




                                                                                                                                                                c
                                                                                                                                                                lic o n
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                                                                                              Internal


                            re La
                                                                                            MOHLTC
                                                                                        Risk Environment




                                                            i c c/




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                                                                                                                                  rg ve
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                                                                Evaluate




                                                                                                                                                          ncia




                                                                                                                                                                               Outcomes
                Capacity




                                                                                                                                                                                Political
Communication                                                                               Communication                                                                                   Communication




                                                                                                                                                               l
  & Learning                                                                                  & Learning                                                                                      & Learning
                                            T r c ou r na




                                                                                                                       Ide
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                                                                                        n         Human            O   pe
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                                                                                                                                                                    io r
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                                                                                                                                                              S
                                                                                                    LHINs


                                                                                            Corporate Governance
                                                                                                Requirements


                                                                                                                                                                                                            16
Categorizing Risk – Comprehensive
    1.    Political or Reputational Risk
    2.    Financial Risk
    3.    Service Delivery or Operational Risk
    4.    People / HR Risk
    5.    Information/Knowledge Risk
    6.    Strategic / Policy Risk
    7.    Stakeholder Satisfaction / Public Perception Risk
    8.    Legal / Compliance Risk
    9.    Technology Risk
    10.   Governance / Organizational Risk
    11.   Privacy Risk
    12.   Security Risk
    13.   Equity Risk

                                    Slide 17
                                                              17
Risk Prioritization – likelihood and impact

Likelihood of a risk event occurring               Risk Impact: Level of damage that can
                                                       occur when a risk event occurs
   Very High: Is almost certain to occur
                                                      Very High: Threatens the success of the
                                                       project
   High: Is likely to occur
                                                      High: Substantial impact on time, cost or
                                                       quality

   Medium: Is as likely as not to occur
                                                      Medium: Notable impact on time, cost or
                                                       quality

   Low: May occur occasionally                       Low: Minor impact on time, cost or quality

                                                      Very Low: Negligible impact
   Very Low: Unlikely to occur


                                            Slide 18
                                                                                                    18
Third dimension for rating risks - proximity

         Immediate – now
         Less than 6 months
         Between 6-12 months
         Between 12 – 24 months
         Between 24 – 36 months
         More than 36 months




                                               19
Risk rating
…Combining impact and likelihood
                         RISK PRIORITIZATION MATRIX


                     5


                                                RISK
                     4                          IxL
            IMPACT




                              RISK
                     3        IxL



                     2


                                                RISK
                     1                          IxL


                         1     2         3       4     5

                                   LIKELIHOOD
                                     Slide 20
                                                           20
Risk reporting and communications
     Risk Level                 Action and Level of Involvement Required

                     • Inform Chief Executive Officer and Board of Directors
     Critical Risk
                     • Immediate action required

                     • Inform Chief Executive Officer
      High Risk      • Strategy Team involvement/attention is essential to manage risks
                       – provide report to Board as appropriate

                     • Management mitigation and ongoing monitoring required
    Moderate Risk
                     • Inform relevant Strategy Team members

                     • Accept, but monitor risks
      Low Risk
                     • Manage by routine procedures within the program and site




                                                                                          21
22
Measure and report RM implementation progress
            • Advanced capabilities to identify, measure, manage all risk exposures within
                tolerances
Excellent   • Advanced implementation, development and execution of ERM parameters
            • Consistently optimizes risk adjusted returns throughout the organization
            •   Clear vision of risk tolerance and overall risk profile
            •   Risk control exceeds adequate for most major risks
 Strong     •   Has robust processes to identify and prepare for emerging risks
            •   Incorporates risk management and decision making to optimize risk adjusted
                returns
         •      Has fully functioning control systems in place for all of their major risks
         •      May lack a robust process for identifying and preparing for emerging risks
Adequate
         •      Performing good classical “silo” based risk management
         •      Not fully developed process to optimize risk adjusted returns
            • Incomplete control process for one or more major risks
  Weak      • Inconsistent or limited capabilities to identify, measure or manage major risk
                exposures

                                                                    Source: Standard & Poor
                                                                                               23
The Cyclist and the Risk Manager




                                   24
Exercise II – 15 minutes
    Identify risks that the cyclists faces in cycling to work.
    Report back.




                                                                  25
Risks
 Threats:               Opportunities:
  Death                 Exercise
  Head Injury           Sunlight
  Injury                Reputation
  Reputation            Financial
  Financial             Role model

  Damage to the bike    Environment

  Sunburn/frost bite




                                         26
Mitigation Strategies for threats

 Death, head injury, other injury – helmet, bright clothes,
  lights, bell, CANbike course, obeying traffic laws, positive
  attitude, anger management course
 Reputation – great outfit, change of wrinkle-free clothes,
  shower, time management
 Financial – high quality locks, “beater”, stopping at stop
  signs
 Damage to the bike – regular maintenance, avoiding pot
  holes
 Sunburn/frost bite – sunscreen, mittens, hats, token/change
 Dehydration- filled water bottle
                                                                 27
Acknowledgements
 Practical approach to Risk Management - by Finance Management Institute,
  Toronto Chapter.
 Introduction to Risk Management for Outsourcing projects - by Peter Kolb




                                                                             28
Questions?




             29

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Introduction to risk management

  • 1. Introduction to Risk Management Kannan Subbiah Director, Operations Knowledge Universe Technologies India 1
  • 2. Objectives  Understanding Risk  Risk Management as a process  Exercise  Q&A 2
  • 3. How to learn Risk Management?  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laKprX-HP94&feature=related 3
  • 4. What is a Risk? A risk is ANYTHING that may affect the achievement of an organization’s objectives. It is the UNCERTAINTY that surrounds future events and outcomes. It is the expression of the likelihood and impact of an event with the potential to influence the achievement of an organization’s objectives. 4
  • 5. Alternatively …  Risk is a potential event with negative consequences that had not happened yet  Could also be an event with positive consequences  A possibility of loss – not the loss itself  A source of problem  Find the root cause and not the leaves  Something that makes the project special  In the widest sense, everything is a risk  Helps identify better ways of handling problems 5
  • 6. Why do we need Risk Management? The only alternative to risk management is crisis management --- and crisis management is much more expensive, time consuming and embarrassing. JAMES LAM, Enterprise Risk Management, Wiley Finance © 2003 Without good risk management practices, government cannot manage its resources effectively. Risk management means more than preparing for the worst; it also means taking advantage of opportunities to improve services or lower costs. Sheila Fraser, Auditor General of Canada 6
  • 7. How does Risk Management help?  Increase risk awareness & understanding  Allows intelligent “informed” risk-taking.  Focuses efforts –helps prioritize.  Is proactive…. not reactive – Prepare for risks before they happen.  Improve outcomes – achievement of objectives  Enables accountability, transparency and responsibility  And maybe even mean survival 7
  • 8. Key Terms  Risk – Exposure to chance of hazard  Risk Level – A measure to represent the significance of the risk  Controls – Action(s) that could eliminate or reduce the risk level  Residual Risk – Risk level after implementing controls  Risk Response – An action on the risk, whether to accept, or not to accept 8
  • 9. Exercise - I  Think of a risk in your daily life  Determine the probability of occurrence  Make an assessment of an impact, if it occurs. 9
  • 10. Who is involved?  Customer  End user  Project Team  Senior Management  Related Project teams  Vendors and suppliers 10
  • 11. When?  A continuous process  Starts from proposal stage  Ends on project completion  Review stages  Business case analysis  Project approval  Project planning  Technology, Tools & Vendor selection  Project status reviews  Deployment and Maintenance 11
  • 12. Risk Management Basics  Risk (uncertainty) may affect the achievement of objectives.  Effective mitigation strategies/controls can reduce negative risks or increase opportunities.  Residual risk is the level of risk after evaluating the effectiveness of controls.  Acceptance and action should be based on residual risk levels. INHEREN T 12
  • 13. A Simple Framework Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Assess Identify Evaluate Establish Risks & Monitor Risks & & Take Objectives Controls & Report Controls Action Communicate, learn, improve 13
  • 14. Risk Identification Techniques  Brainstorming  Interviewing  Root cause analysis  Checklists  SWOT 14
  • 15. Risk Management is critical to ALL levels of decisions UNCERTAINTY Strategic Decisions S trat egi c eg ic S trat Decisions transferring strategy into action e Pro g mm ra mme gra Pro Decisions required for implementation Pro jec l t& ona Op e ra ti r atio & Ope nal je ct Pr o Decisions can be categorized into three types. The amount of risk (uncertainty) varies with the type of decisions. Most decisions are concerned with implementation. The HM Treasury’s The Orange Book 15
  • 16. Risk Environment External Risk Environment MOHLTC Extended Extended Enterprise P ep P u b ti la & er ns gu ws c lic o n t io Internal re La MOHLTC Risk Environment i c c/ O Go ol gi P at e rg ve y Or r a rn Pa iz at nito ni a tr ga S za nc rtn ion s ni s r t io e n o M i th e tr ie Es er M na - O l t ab s e c Co m al / plian F ina li s Le g h Evaluate ncia Outcomes Capacity Political Communication Communication Communication l & Learning & Learning & Learning T r c ou r na Ide an A c ove olo n sfe ntabi c e c hn a t i o gy G nt r P l i ty T e or m ay ify me f In n nt Assess & In l f orm na atio ra tio n Human O pe Resources io r at de ns ct ol pe eh T h nom E e x ta k co e y S LHINs Corporate Governance Requirements 16
  • 17. Categorizing Risk – Comprehensive 1. Political or Reputational Risk 2. Financial Risk 3. Service Delivery or Operational Risk 4. People / HR Risk 5. Information/Knowledge Risk 6. Strategic / Policy Risk 7. Stakeholder Satisfaction / Public Perception Risk 8. Legal / Compliance Risk 9. Technology Risk 10. Governance / Organizational Risk 11. Privacy Risk 12. Security Risk 13. Equity Risk Slide 17 17
  • 18. Risk Prioritization – likelihood and impact Likelihood of a risk event occurring Risk Impact: Level of damage that can occur when a risk event occurs  Very High: Is almost certain to occur  Very High: Threatens the success of the project  High: Is likely to occur  High: Substantial impact on time, cost or quality  Medium: Is as likely as not to occur  Medium: Notable impact on time, cost or quality  Low: May occur occasionally  Low: Minor impact on time, cost or quality  Very Low: Negligible impact  Very Low: Unlikely to occur Slide 18 18
  • 19. Third dimension for rating risks - proximity  Immediate – now  Less than 6 months  Between 6-12 months  Between 12 – 24 months  Between 24 – 36 months  More than 36 months 19
  • 20. Risk rating …Combining impact and likelihood RISK PRIORITIZATION MATRIX 5 RISK 4 IxL IMPACT RISK 3 IxL 2 RISK 1 IxL 1 2 3 4 5 LIKELIHOOD Slide 20 20
  • 21. Risk reporting and communications Risk Level Action and Level of Involvement Required • Inform Chief Executive Officer and Board of Directors Critical Risk • Immediate action required • Inform Chief Executive Officer High Risk • Strategy Team involvement/attention is essential to manage risks – provide report to Board as appropriate • Management mitigation and ongoing monitoring required Moderate Risk • Inform relevant Strategy Team members • Accept, but monitor risks Low Risk • Manage by routine procedures within the program and site 21
  • 22. 22
  • 23. Measure and report RM implementation progress • Advanced capabilities to identify, measure, manage all risk exposures within tolerances Excellent • Advanced implementation, development and execution of ERM parameters • Consistently optimizes risk adjusted returns throughout the organization • Clear vision of risk tolerance and overall risk profile • Risk control exceeds adequate for most major risks Strong • Has robust processes to identify and prepare for emerging risks • Incorporates risk management and decision making to optimize risk adjusted returns • Has fully functioning control systems in place for all of their major risks • May lack a robust process for identifying and preparing for emerging risks Adequate • Performing good classical “silo” based risk management • Not fully developed process to optimize risk adjusted returns • Incomplete control process for one or more major risks Weak • Inconsistent or limited capabilities to identify, measure or manage major risk exposures Source: Standard & Poor 23
  • 24. The Cyclist and the Risk Manager 24
  • 25. Exercise II – 15 minutes  Identify risks that the cyclists faces in cycling to work.  Report back. 25
  • 26. Risks Threats: Opportunities:  Death  Exercise  Head Injury  Sunlight  Injury  Reputation  Reputation  Financial  Financial  Role model  Damage to the bike  Environment  Sunburn/frost bite 26
  • 27. Mitigation Strategies for threats  Death, head injury, other injury – helmet, bright clothes, lights, bell, CANbike course, obeying traffic laws, positive attitude, anger management course  Reputation – great outfit, change of wrinkle-free clothes, shower, time management  Financial – high quality locks, “beater”, stopping at stop signs  Damage to the bike – regular maintenance, avoiding pot holes  Sunburn/frost bite – sunscreen, mittens, hats, token/change  Dehydration- filled water bottle 27
  • 28. Acknowledgements  Practical approach to Risk Management - by Finance Management Institute, Toronto Chapter.  Introduction to Risk Management for Outsourcing projects - by Peter Kolb 28

Editor's Notes

  1. 1. Financial Risk - The risk of financial losses, overspending, or the inability to meet budgets and plans. 2. Service Delivery or Operational Risk - The risk that products or services will not get completed or delivered in a timely manner as expected. This also includes risks to business continuity. 3. People / HR Risk - The risk that capable & motivated staff will not be available to get the job done. This could be the result of resignations, turnovers, inability to hire, lack of skills, strikes, injury etc. 4. Information Risk - The risk that information produced, or used, is incomplete, out-of-date, inaccurate, irrelevant, or inappropriately disclosed 5. Strategic / Policy Risk -The risk that strategies and policies fail to achieve required results 6. Stakeholder Satisfaction / Public Perception Risk - The risk of failure to meet expectations of the public, other governments, ministries, or other stakeholders 7. Legal / Compliance Risk - The risk that a government initiative, or action, will be in breach of a statute, regulation, contract, MOU, or that the government will face litigation 8. Technology Risks - Risk that information technology infrastructure does not align with business requirements, and does not support availability, access, integrity, relevance, and security of data. This also includes risks to business continuity 9. Governance / Organizational Risk - Risk that the organization structure, accountabilities, or responsibilities are not designed, communicated, or implemented to meet the organization’s objectives, and the risk that business culture and management commitment does not support the formal structures 10. Privacy Risk - Risk that associated with the collection, use and disclosure of personal information and personal health information. 11. Security Risk - Risk that is associated with the protection of confidentiality, integrity, availability and value of assets (tangible and intangible) and people.
  2. In phase I we facilitated a number of IRM activities. Here are three examples: Oak Ridge Facility at the Mental Health Centre Penetanguishene Colorectal Cancer Screening Program LHIN Readiness I and II These 3 examples showed us how we could implement IRM. Sharon Zwicker told us: put in quote Marsha Barnes told us: put in quote Gail Paech told us: put in quote Carrie Hayward told us: put in quote
  3. In phase I we facilitated a number of IRM activities. Here are three examples: Oak Ridge Facility at the Mental Health Centre Penetanguishene Colorectal Cancer Screening Program LHIN Readiness I and II These 3 examples showed us how we could implement IRM. Sharon Zwicker told us: put in quote Marsha Barnes told us: put in quote Gail Paech told us: put in quote Carrie Hayward told us: put in quote
  4. Statistics from Transport Canada Most Canadian deaths were unhelmeted riders. Transport Canada statistics show that 88 per cent of the 80 cyclists who died nationwide in 2001 were not wearing helmets.
  5. Statistics from Transport Canada Most Canadian deaths were unhelmeted riders. Transport Canada statistics show that 88 per cent of the 80 cyclists who died nationwide in 2001 were not wearing helmets.