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Introduction To
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Kota Takeda
Department of Mathematics
Kyoto University
Program
1. Introduction
2. Preliminary
3. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
4. Demonstration
5. Discussion
1. Introduction
Introduction to today’s presentation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Introduction
This is intuitive introduction of Hamiltonian Monte
Carlo.
Almost all parts of this presentation is from
“A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”, Michael
Betancourt .
Motivation
Computing expectations with respect to the posterior distribution in
Bayesian inference
𝔼𝜋 𝑓 =
𝑄
𝑓 𝑞 𝜋 𝑞 𝑑𝑞
2. Preliminary
Preparing to constructing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Notation
 Sample space 𝑄 = ℝ𝑑
.
 Denote 𝑀 > 0, if M is symmetric positive
definite matrix.
 𝑁 0, Σ ; for mean zero covariance Σ Gaussian
distribution.
 𝑞 ~ 𝜋; 𝑞 is distributed by 𝜋.
 Use “≡” for definition
Monte Carlo Method
Approximate distribution 𝜋(𝑞) with large samples
𝔼𝜋 𝑓 ≈
1
𝑁
𝑛=1
𝑁
𝑓(𝑞𝑛)
Sampling Problem
How do we make efficient sampling from given
target distribution 𝜋 𝑞 ?
Define sample problem we are interested in
Markov Chain Monte Carlo: MCMC
Desired transition kernel 𝕋 𝑞′
𝑞 to satisfy
reversibility
Construct Markov chain that converges to target distribution by Random
proposal and Acceptance
𝜋 𝑞 𝕋 𝑞′
𝑞 = 𝜋 𝑞′ 𝕋 𝑞 𝑞′
Random Walk Metropolis: RWM
One simple implementation
of Metropolis-Hasting
algorithm
 Require: target 𝜋 𝑞
 proposal covariance Σ > 0
1. Random proposal
2. Accept
given qn, draw qprop ~ N qn, Σ
accept qn+1 = qprop with probability
min{1,
π(qprop)
π(qn)
}
Issue of MCMC
Poor performance with high dimension and
complex target distributions
Hamilton Dynamics
Hamilton equation on phase
space
 preserve volume in phase
space(Liouville’s Theorem)
 preserve total energy in phase
space, which is Hamiltonian
 time reversal symmetry
𝑑𝑞
𝑑𝑡
=
𝑑𝐻
𝑑𝑝
𝑑𝑝
𝑑𝑡
= −
𝑑𝐻
𝑑𝑞
3. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Constructing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: HMC
A. One approach is using geometric information
of target and constructing conservative transition
kernel by Hamilton flow.
Q. How do we make efficient sampling from given target distribution
𝝅𝑼 𝒒 ?
Information of Gradient
1. Consider 𝜋𝑈 𝑞 = 𝑒−𝑈(𝑞)
, where 𝑈 𝑞 ≡
− log(𝜋𝑈 𝑞 )
2. But gradient
dU
dq
pulls us the mode of density!
3. → Need to introduce momentum 𝑝
Using geometric information of target density
Expand Sample Space
1. Expand to phase space 𝑞 → 𝑞, 𝑝 with 𝑝
2. Choose conditional distribution 𝜋𝐾(𝑝|𝑞)
3. Lift 𝜋𝑈 𝑞 to 𝜋𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡ 𝜋𝐾 𝑝|𝑞 𝜋𝑈 𝑞
Expand sample space to phase space,
We can always gain sample q by projection(marginalization).
Choice of Kinetic Energy
1. Choose Kinetic Energy 𝐾(𝑞, 𝑝)
2. Conditional distribution of momentum determined
by 𝜋𝐾 𝑝 𝑞 ≡ 𝑒−𝐾 𝑞,𝑝
To define conditional distribution of momentum 𝜋𝐾 𝑝 𝑞 , a user choose kinetic
energy.
In simple case, let 𝐾 𝑞, 𝑝 =
1
2
𝑝𝑇
𝑀−1
𝑝.
Hamiltonian
1. 𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡ 𝐾 𝑞, 𝑝 + 𝑈(𝑞)
2. 𝜋𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡ 𝜋𝐾 𝑝|𝑞 𝜋𝑈 𝑞 = 𝑒−𝐻(𝑞,𝑝)
Hamiltonian 𝐻 and canonical distribution 𝜋𝐻 are defined as below.
Symplectic integrator
Scheme exactly
preserving volume
 Assume: 𝐾 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡
1
2
𝑝𝑇
𝑀−1
𝑝
with Mass matrix 𝑀 > 0,
 𝑈(𝑞) is differentiable.
 Require: step size 𝜀 > 0
𝑝
𝑛+
1
2
= 𝑝𝑛 −
𝜀
2
𝑑𝑈
𝑑𝑞
(𝑞𝑛)
𝑞𝑛+1 = 𝑞𝑛 + 𝜀𝑀−1
𝑝
𝑛+
1
2
𝑝𝑛+1 = 𝑝
𝑛+
1
2
−
𝜀
2
𝑑𝑈
𝑑𝑞
(𝑞𝑛+1)
𝜑𝜀 𝑞𝑛, 𝑝𝑛 ≡ 𝑞𝑛+1, 𝑝𝑛+1
Numerical Hamilton Flow
1. 𝜑𝜀 𝑞𝑛, 𝑝𝑛 ≡ 𝑞𝑛+1, 𝑝𝑛+1
2. 𝜑𝜀
𝐿
≡ 𝜑𝜀 ∘ ⋯ ∘ 𝜑𝜀 for integer 𝐿.
Define numerical Hamilton flow by symplectic integrator on previous page
and define 𝐿 times composition
HMC Algorithm
Hybrid of deterministic and
stochastic transitions
 𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡
1
2
𝑝𝑇
𝑀−1
𝑝 + 𝑈(𝑞)
 Require: 𝑀 > 0, 𝐿 ∈ ℕ, 𝜀 > 0
1. Energy Lift
2. Hamilton flow
3. Accept
given 𝑞𝑛, draw 𝑝𝑛 ~ 𝑁 0, 𝑀
𝑞𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝, 𝑝𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝 = 𝜑𝜀
𝐿(𝑞𝑛, 𝑝𝑛)
accept 𝑞𝑛+1 = 𝑞prop with probability
min{1, exp(𝐻(𝑞𝑛, 𝑝𝑛) − 𝐻(𝑞𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝, −𝑝𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝))}
Conceptual Animation of HMC Algorithm
1. Energy Lift
2. Hamilton flow
3. (Accept)
 Sample space 𝑄 = ℝ1
 target 𝜋𝑈 𝑞 = 𝑒−
1
2
𝑞2
, 𝜋𝐾 𝑝|𝑞 =
𝑒−
1
2
𝑝2
⟹ 𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 =
1
2
𝑞2 +
1
2
𝑝2
Phase space
Advantage of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
 Rich Theoretical Support
effective for wider class of target than non-gradient method
 Computational Efficiency
Fast exploration and large acceptance probability
4. Demonstration
Demonstration of efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo compared with
Random Walk Metropolis
Strongly Nonlinear Banana Gaussian
Test Target distribution is
Strongly banana gaussian
 Sample space 𝑄 = ℝ2
 target 𝜋𝑈 𝑞1, 𝑞2 = 𝑔 ∘ 𝜓𝑏=0.1 𝑞1, 𝑞2
where
 𝑔 𝑞1, 𝑞2 = 𝑒−
1
200
𝑞1
2−
1
2
𝑞2
2
 𝜓𝑏: 𝑞1, 𝑞2 ⟼ (𝑞1, 𝑞2 + 𝒃𝒒𝟏
𝟐
− 100𝑏)
RWM vs HMC after 10 iterations
RWM: Σ = 2𝐼 HMC: 𝜀 = 0.5, 𝐿 = 10, 𝑀 = 𝐼
RWM vs HMC after 100 iterations
RWM: Σ = 2𝐼 HMC: 𝜀 = 0.5, 𝐿 = 10, 𝑀 = 𝐼
RWM vs HMC after 1000 iterations
RWM: Σ = 2𝐼 HMC: 𝜀 = 0.5, 𝐿 = 10, 𝑀 = 𝐼
Stats*
RWM: Σ = 2𝐼 HMC: 𝜀 = 0.5, 𝐿 = 10, 𝑀 = 𝐼
Try Sample Time*(ms) Acceptance
Probability
10 3.02 0.300
100 25.8 0.260
1000 179 0.288
Try Sample Time*(ms) Acceptance
Probability
10 7.43 0.900
100 34.3 0.970
1000 474 0.940
*Not guaranteed value, just a reference.
*Time is measured by jupyter magic command `%%time`.
5. Discussion
Discussion about future work or application of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Future work
 Studying mathematical guarantee and guideline
 Adaptive tuning of parameters
 Selecting Integrators
 Generalizing to infinite-dimensional sample
space
 Introducing inverse temperature
Discussion
 Particle Filter
 Variational method
 Inverse problem
 “Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity from Steady
State Seepage Flow Using Hamiltonian Monte
Carlo”- 01/02/2021
For Your Information…
“Remember that using Bayes' Theorem doesn't make
you a Bayesian. Quantifying uncertainty with probability
makes you a Bayesian.” - Michael Betancourt
https://twitter.com/betanalpha/status/81701286064363
5204
This is pinned tweet of Michael Betancourt.
References
 “A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”
 “The Geometric Foundations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”
 “The Adaptive proposal distribution for Random Walk
Metropolis Algorithm” – only for banana Gaussian
 “Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity from Steady State
Seepage Flow Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo” -
http://soil.en.a.u-tokyo.ac.jp/jsidre/search/PDFs/20/%5B1-
52%5D.pdf
Documents
 Detail documents on my site
https://kotatakeda.github.io/math/2021/01/03/
hamiltonian-monte-carlo.html

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Introduction to hmc

  • 1. Introduction To Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Kota Takeda Department of Mathematics Kyoto University
  • 2. Program 1. Introduction 2. Preliminary 3. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo 4. Demonstration 5. Discussion
  • 3. 1. Introduction Introduction to today’s presentation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
  • 4. Introduction This is intuitive introduction of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Almost all parts of this presentation is from “A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”, Michael Betancourt .
  • 5. Motivation Computing expectations with respect to the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference 𝔼𝜋 𝑓 = 𝑄 𝑓 𝑞 𝜋 𝑞 𝑑𝑞
  • 6. 2. Preliminary Preparing to constructing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
  • 7. Notation  Sample space 𝑄 = ℝ𝑑 .  Denote 𝑀 > 0, if M is symmetric positive definite matrix.  𝑁 0, Σ ; for mean zero covariance Σ Gaussian distribution.  𝑞 ~ 𝜋; 𝑞 is distributed by 𝜋.  Use “≡” for definition
  • 8. Monte Carlo Method Approximate distribution 𝜋(𝑞) with large samples 𝔼𝜋 𝑓 ≈ 1 𝑁 𝑛=1 𝑁 𝑓(𝑞𝑛)
  • 9. Sampling Problem How do we make efficient sampling from given target distribution 𝜋 𝑞 ? Define sample problem we are interested in
  • 10. Markov Chain Monte Carlo: MCMC Desired transition kernel 𝕋 𝑞′ 𝑞 to satisfy reversibility Construct Markov chain that converges to target distribution by Random proposal and Acceptance 𝜋 𝑞 𝕋 𝑞′ 𝑞 = 𝜋 𝑞′ 𝕋 𝑞 𝑞′
  • 11. Random Walk Metropolis: RWM One simple implementation of Metropolis-Hasting algorithm  Require: target 𝜋 𝑞  proposal covariance Σ > 0 1. Random proposal 2. Accept given qn, draw qprop ~ N qn, Σ accept qn+1 = qprop with probability min{1, π(qprop) π(qn) }
  • 12. Issue of MCMC Poor performance with high dimension and complex target distributions
  • 13. Hamilton Dynamics Hamilton equation on phase space  preserve volume in phase space(Liouville’s Theorem)  preserve total energy in phase space, which is Hamiltonian  time reversal symmetry 𝑑𝑞 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑑𝐻 𝑑𝑝 𝑑𝑝 𝑑𝑡 = − 𝑑𝐻 𝑑𝑞
  • 14. 3. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Constructing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
  • 15. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: HMC A. One approach is using geometric information of target and constructing conservative transition kernel by Hamilton flow. Q. How do we make efficient sampling from given target distribution 𝝅𝑼 𝒒 ?
  • 16. Information of Gradient 1. Consider 𝜋𝑈 𝑞 = 𝑒−𝑈(𝑞) , where 𝑈 𝑞 ≡ − log(𝜋𝑈 𝑞 ) 2. But gradient dU dq pulls us the mode of density! 3. → Need to introduce momentum 𝑝 Using geometric information of target density
  • 17. Expand Sample Space 1. Expand to phase space 𝑞 → 𝑞, 𝑝 with 𝑝 2. Choose conditional distribution 𝜋𝐾(𝑝|𝑞) 3. Lift 𝜋𝑈 𝑞 to 𝜋𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡ 𝜋𝐾 𝑝|𝑞 𝜋𝑈 𝑞 Expand sample space to phase space, We can always gain sample q by projection(marginalization).
  • 18. Choice of Kinetic Energy 1. Choose Kinetic Energy 𝐾(𝑞, 𝑝) 2. Conditional distribution of momentum determined by 𝜋𝐾 𝑝 𝑞 ≡ 𝑒−𝐾 𝑞,𝑝 To define conditional distribution of momentum 𝜋𝐾 𝑝 𝑞 , a user choose kinetic energy. In simple case, let 𝐾 𝑞, 𝑝 = 1 2 𝑝𝑇 𝑀−1 𝑝.
  • 19. Hamiltonian 1. 𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡ 𝐾 𝑞, 𝑝 + 𝑈(𝑞) 2. 𝜋𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡ 𝜋𝐾 𝑝|𝑞 𝜋𝑈 𝑞 = 𝑒−𝐻(𝑞,𝑝) Hamiltonian 𝐻 and canonical distribution 𝜋𝐻 are defined as below.
  • 20. Symplectic integrator Scheme exactly preserving volume  Assume: 𝐾 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡ 1 2 𝑝𝑇 𝑀−1 𝑝 with Mass matrix 𝑀 > 0,  𝑈(𝑞) is differentiable.  Require: step size 𝜀 > 0 𝑝 𝑛+ 1 2 = 𝑝𝑛 − 𝜀 2 𝑑𝑈 𝑑𝑞 (𝑞𝑛) 𝑞𝑛+1 = 𝑞𝑛 + 𝜀𝑀−1 𝑝 𝑛+ 1 2 𝑝𝑛+1 = 𝑝 𝑛+ 1 2 − 𝜀 2 𝑑𝑈 𝑑𝑞 (𝑞𝑛+1) 𝜑𝜀 𝑞𝑛, 𝑝𝑛 ≡ 𝑞𝑛+1, 𝑝𝑛+1
  • 21. Numerical Hamilton Flow 1. 𝜑𝜀 𝑞𝑛, 𝑝𝑛 ≡ 𝑞𝑛+1, 𝑝𝑛+1 2. 𝜑𝜀 𝐿 ≡ 𝜑𝜀 ∘ ⋯ ∘ 𝜑𝜀 for integer 𝐿. Define numerical Hamilton flow by symplectic integrator on previous page and define 𝐿 times composition
  • 22. HMC Algorithm Hybrid of deterministic and stochastic transitions  𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 ≡ 1 2 𝑝𝑇 𝑀−1 𝑝 + 𝑈(𝑞)  Require: 𝑀 > 0, 𝐿 ∈ ℕ, 𝜀 > 0 1. Energy Lift 2. Hamilton flow 3. Accept given 𝑞𝑛, draw 𝑝𝑛 ~ 𝑁 0, 𝑀 𝑞𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝, 𝑝𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝 = 𝜑𝜀 𝐿(𝑞𝑛, 𝑝𝑛) accept 𝑞𝑛+1 = 𝑞prop with probability min{1, exp(𝐻(𝑞𝑛, 𝑝𝑛) − 𝐻(𝑞𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝, −𝑝𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝))}
  • 23. Conceptual Animation of HMC Algorithm 1. Energy Lift 2. Hamilton flow 3. (Accept)  Sample space 𝑄 = ℝ1  target 𝜋𝑈 𝑞 = 𝑒− 1 2 𝑞2 , 𝜋𝐾 𝑝|𝑞 = 𝑒− 1 2 𝑝2 ⟹ 𝐻 𝑞, 𝑝 = 1 2 𝑞2 + 1 2 𝑝2 Phase space
  • 24. Advantage of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo  Rich Theoretical Support effective for wider class of target than non-gradient method  Computational Efficiency Fast exploration and large acceptance probability
  • 25. 4. Demonstration Demonstration of efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo compared with Random Walk Metropolis
  • 26. Strongly Nonlinear Banana Gaussian Test Target distribution is Strongly banana gaussian  Sample space 𝑄 = ℝ2  target 𝜋𝑈 𝑞1, 𝑞2 = 𝑔 ∘ 𝜓𝑏=0.1 𝑞1, 𝑞2 where  𝑔 𝑞1, 𝑞2 = 𝑒− 1 200 𝑞1 2− 1 2 𝑞2 2  𝜓𝑏: 𝑞1, 𝑞2 ⟼ (𝑞1, 𝑞2 + 𝒃𝒒𝟏 𝟐 − 100𝑏)
  • 27. RWM vs HMC after 10 iterations RWM: Σ = 2𝐼 HMC: 𝜀 = 0.5, 𝐿 = 10, 𝑀 = 𝐼
  • 28. RWM vs HMC after 100 iterations RWM: Σ = 2𝐼 HMC: 𝜀 = 0.5, 𝐿 = 10, 𝑀 = 𝐼
  • 29. RWM vs HMC after 1000 iterations RWM: Σ = 2𝐼 HMC: 𝜀 = 0.5, 𝐿 = 10, 𝑀 = 𝐼
  • 30. Stats* RWM: Σ = 2𝐼 HMC: 𝜀 = 0.5, 𝐿 = 10, 𝑀 = 𝐼 Try Sample Time*(ms) Acceptance Probability 10 3.02 0.300 100 25.8 0.260 1000 179 0.288 Try Sample Time*(ms) Acceptance Probability 10 7.43 0.900 100 34.3 0.970 1000 474 0.940 *Not guaranteed value, just a reference. *Time is measured by jupyter magic command `%%time`.
  • 31. 5. Discussion Discussion about future work or application of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
  • 32. Future work  Studying mathematical guarantee and guideline  Adaptive tuning of parameters  Selecting Integrators  Generalizing to infinite-dimensional sample space  Introducing inverse temperature
  • 33. Discussion  Particle Filter  Variational method  Inverse problem  “Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity from Steady State Seepage Flow Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”- 01/02/2021
  • 34. For Your Information… “Remember that using Bayes' Theorem doesn't make you a Bayesian. Quantifying uncertainty with probability makes you a Bayesian.” - Michael Betancourt https://twitter.com/betanalpha/status/81701286064363 5204 This is pinned tweet of Michael Betancourt.
  • 35. References  “A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”  “The Geometric Foundations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”  “The Adaptive proposal distribution for Random Walk Metropolis Algorithm” – only for banana Gaussian  “Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity from Steady State Seepage Flow Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo” - http://soil.en.a.u-tokyo.ac.jp/jsidre/search/PDFs/20/%5B1- 52%5D.pdf
  • 36. Documents  Detail documents on my site https://kotatakeda.github.io/math/2021/01/03/ hamiltonian-monte-carlo.html

Editor's Notes

  1. - 挨拶 - 自己紹介
  2. - index
  3. - conceptualでintuitiveなintroductionであることを強調.
  4. 応用の文脈ではGiven data Dに対して, 事後分布pi(q|D)に関する期待値などを求める. パラメータの事後分布を推定することが目標
  5. - {TODO: 他にもあるか確認}
  6. - Typical set, which is region that has dominant contributing to integral, is singular in high dimension.
  7. - 大きな目標
  8. 流す 分布を近似する列をMarkov chainによって構成する. その際の遷移確率(のようなもの)transition kernel Tはreversibility Detailed balanceはreversibleとも言う Proposalはcadidateともいう T(q’|q)はqからq’へ移る「確率」(厳密にはT(q’|q)dq’)
  9. パラメータはSigmaのみ 探索の大胆さと精度はトレードオフ
  10. Concentrate of measure, typical set, curse of dimension
  11. - 流す - If transition is aligned with direction of gradient, then it doesn’t conserve target density.
  12. 都合上targetのnotationが変わっている
  13. - U(q)はポテンシャル - Gradient に従うとmodeに落ちていく
  14. sample Space -> phase space Target distribution -> canonical distribution canonical distributionは周辺化によりtarget distributionを得ることができる.
  15. 単純な実装では運動エネルギーKは1/2 p^2 (Riemannian Kinetic energyなどもある) Total Energy in phase space, which is conserved along with ideal Hamilton flow
  16. 1式から2の2つ目の等式が成り立つ (Riemannian Kinetic energyなどもある) Total Energy in phase space, which is conserved along with ideal Hamilton flow
  17. leapfrogでHamilton flowを近似 volumeは保存する Energyは厳密には保存しない.代わりにmodified Hamiltonianを保存する. Mass matrix と呼ばれる説明 単純なcaseのkinetic energy(Euclid Gaussian)を考えている.
  18. - 流す
  19. HMCのAlgorithmは概して3stepで構成される. 1はRWMに似ているがmomentum pを 3のAccept stepで数値積分による系統的なbiasを調整する 厳密には2と3の間でmomentum flipが入る -> reversibleな(detailed balanceが成り立つ)Chainを構成できる. - Mはmass matrix, Lは積分回数, epsはstep size HMCの別名はHybrid monte Carlo accept probはintegratorに依存
  20. エネルギーが高いところは出にくい Pのサンプルが偏っているかも
  21. - Theoretical guarantees on the validity of the resulting estimators
  22. Bが大きいほど強く曲がっている Gaussian に非線形変換を合成 解析的にgradientを求めた {TODO: ref削除 indexにdemo追加 }
  23. - Initial pointは両者とも左下
  24. - Initial pointは両者とも左下
  25. - Initial pointは両者とも左下
  26. - Initial pointは両者とも左下
  27. - infinite-dimensional sample spaceは関数解析やPDEに応用できる. - Inverse temperatureの導入で多峰的な分布に対応 -> Adiabatic Monte Carlo
  28. - Sequential HMCはstate spaceに関する論文が少しある - 京大農学の『ハミルトニアンモンテカルロ法を用いた逆解析による定常流の透水係数の推定』は大杉 美里*,Michael C. Koch*,村上 章*,藤澤 和謙*による