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Information theory

    Asymmetric
information and its
  effect on market
      outcomes
Information asymmetry
Information asymmetry deals
with the study of decisions in
transactions where one party
has     more      or     better
information than the other.
This creates an imbalance of
power in transactions which
can sometimes cause the
transactions to go awry, a kind
of market failure in the worst
case.
The market for lemon’s
          • Akerlof 1970 “The Market for Lemons:
            Quality, Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism”

          • Akerlof investigates the effect of asymmetric
            information on the market equilibrium, based on the
            example of the used cars market.

          • Assumptions:
             – Used cars can either be of a good quality (Plum), or they
               can be faulty (Lemon).
             – The seller knows the level of quality of his own car
             – Potential buyers do not know the level of quality and
               cannot observe it ⇒ asymmetric information

http://sylvain.barde.free.fr/Teaching/Micro%200910/Week_12_Information_theory.
ppt
How does this affect the market outcome?
The buyer cannot observe the quality of a particular
car.
   When meeting a car owner, he will only be prepared to
   offer a price which corresponds to the “average” quality
   of the cars on the market.
   He does not have any information which would allow to
   tailor his offer for a particular car.

The owner of a lemon:
   Has no interest in revealing the information he has
   about the (low) quality of his car
   If he does so, he will receive a lower offer (by improving
   the information available to the buyer)
   By keeping the information for himself, he can expect a
   price higher than the value of the car ⇒ market power
The owner of a plum:
   Has no interest of selling his car at the average price offered by the
   buyers (he knows that the car is really worth more than the average
   offer)
   Crucial aspect: He cannot improve the information of the buyer
   by revealing the quality of the car !
   This is because the real information (my car is a plum) is “drowned”
   by the noise made by the owners of lemons !!
   “That’s what they all say”
   So his best option is to exit the market.


  As a result the average
  quality of cars on the
  market decreases.
Another crucial aspect :
   What happens if the buyers realise that the goods cars are
   exiting the market ?
                                 They reduce their average offer in
                                 line with the reduction in
                                 average quality
                                     Following this reasoning, more
                                     owners of plums leave the
                                     market
                                     In the end, the market
                                     disappears !

                                 In theory, a “market for
                                 lemons” cannot exist for long
This is why you don’t see “spontaneous” markets
for second-hand cars...
   The quality of a second-hand car can vary a lot.
   Buying a car, even second hand, is expensive.
Concealing
problems with a
car is easy and
cheap
So buying a
random car from a
complete stranger
is a big risk !!
   One of the biggest market for lemons is ??
   Online shopping
   Example: MP3/MP4 fraud


                          Grove yard
                            selling
Buy
                       Kuhn Tree
  (6,3)
                    Fresh               Fresh
 Leave
  (0,0)
  Buy
                                                  Seller
(6-R,-12)
                    Fresh
 Leave
 (-6,0)
                                         Old
  Buy
 (6,-12)
                     Old
 Leave
 (-6,0)

 http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~peres/gtlect.pdf
BUYER
                                          BL                  LL
                      FF                  6-R/3,-2            -2,0
       SELLER
                      FO                  2,2                 -2,0

 SELLER EXPECTED PAYOFF                    BUYER EXPECTED PAYOFF
 =2/3*6+(6-R)/3= 6-R/3                     2/3*3+1/3*(-12)=-2
 2/3*0 +1/3*(-6)=-2                        2/3*0+1/3*0= 0
 2/3*6-1/3*6=2                             2/3*3-1/3*6=2
 0*2/3+1/3*(-6)=-2                         2/3*0+1/3*0=0

FF= The seller always says it is fresh whether it is fresh or old.
FO= The seller tells the truth i.e. says fresh if it is fresh or says old if it is
old.
THANK YOU

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Information theory

  • 1. Information theory Asymmetric information and its effect on market outcomes
  • 2. Information asymmetry Information asymmetry deals with the study of decisions in transactions where one party has more or better information than the other. This creates an imbalance of power in transactions which can sometimes cause the transactions to go awry, a kind of market failure in the worst case.
  • 3. The market for lemon’s • Akerlof 1970 “The Market for Lemons: Quality, Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism” • Akerlof investigates the effect of asymmetric information on the market equilibrium, based on the example of the used cars market. • Assumptions: – Used cars can either be of a good quality (Plum), or they can be faulty (Lemon). – The seller knows the level of quality of his own car – Potential buyers do not know the level of quality and cannot observe it ⇒ asymmetric information http://sylvain.barde.free.fr/Teaching/Micro%200910/Week_12_Information_theory. ppt
  • 4. How does this affect the market outcome? The buyer cannot observe the quality of a particular car. When meeting a car owner, he will only be prepared to offer a price which corresponds to the “average” quality of the cars on the market. He does not have any information which would allow to tailor his offer for a particular car. The owner of a lemon: Has no interest in revealing the information he has about the (low) quality of his car If he does so, he will receive a lower offer (by improving the information available to the buyer) By keeping the information for himself, he can expect a price higher than the value of the car ⇒ market power
  • 5. The owner of a plum: Has no interest of selling his car at the average price offered by the buyers (he knows that the car is really worth more than the average offer) Crucial aspect: He cannot improve the information of the buyer by revealing the quality of the car ! This is because the real information (my car is a plum) is “drowned” by the noise made by the owners of lemons !! “That’s what they all say” So his best option is to exit the market. As a result the average quality of cars on the market decreases.
  • 6. Another crucial aspect : What happens if the buyers realise that the goods cars are exiting the market ? They reduce their average offer in line with the reduction in average quality Following this reasoning, more owners of plums leave the market In the end, the market disappears ! In theory, a “market for lemons” cannot exist for long
  • 7. This is why you don’t see “spontaneous” markets for second-hand cars... The quality of a second-hand car can vary a lot. Buying a car, even second hand, is expensive. Concealing problems with a car is easy and cheap So buying a random car from a complete stranger is a big risk !!
  • 8. One of the biggest market for lemons is ??  Online shopping  Example: MP3/MP4 fraud Grove yard selling
  • 9. Buy Kuhn Tree (6,3) Fresh Fresh Leave (0,0) Buy Seller (6-R,-12) Fresh Leave (-6,0) Old Buy (6,-12) Old Leave (-6,0) http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~peres/gtlect.pdf
  • 10. BUYER BL LL FF 6-R/3,-2 -2,0 SELLER FO 2,2 -2,0 SELLER EXPECTED PAYOFF BUYER EXPECTED PAYOFF =2/3*6+(6-R)/3= 6-R/3 2/3*3+1/3*(-12)=-2 2/3*0 +1/3*(-6)=-2 2/3*0+1/3*0= 0 2/3*6-1/3*6=2 2/3*3-1/3*6=2 0*2/3+1/3*(-6)=-2 2/3*0+1/3*0=0 FF= The seller always says it is fresh whether it is fresh or old. FO= The seller tells the truth i.e. says fresh if it is fresh or says old if it is old.