Climate change is causing an increase in hydrometeorological disasters in the Western Himalayas. Glaciers are retreating at accelerated rates due to rising temperatures, which is increasing the likelihood of glacial lake outburst floods and changing rainfall and runoff patterns. Flash floods are the most common type of disaster, often caused by extreme rainfall events. Climate change is also contributing to more erratic weather, like increased monsoon rainfall, strengthening the impacts of disasters on communities in the region. Adaptation measures are needed to build resilience against these climate-linked hydrometeorological risks.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND
HYDROMETEROLOGICAL
DISASTERS
Dr Vinay Kumar Pandey
Ph.D., M.Sc. (Geology), M.Sc. (Disaster
Mitigation), MPCE, FISCA.
3/24/20191

2. CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is a
significant and lasting
change in the statistic
distribution of weather
patterns over periods
ranging from decades to
millions of years.
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3. FACTORS INFLUENCING CLIMATE
CHANGE
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4. CAUSES OF CHANGE IN GLOBAL
CLIMATE
• Change in Earth Orbit
• Variable Solar
Radiation/Output
• ALBEDO (Reflectivity)
Effects
• Greenhouse effects
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5. • The concept of Milankovitch Cycles was developed by the Serbian
mathematician Milutin Milankovitch (1930). They take account of
three variations in the orbit of the earth around the sun.
• Earth orbit changes from being nearly circular to slightly elliptical.
This cycle affected by other planets in the solar system.
• The angle of tilt of the earth axis changes from 22.1⁰ to 24.5⁰.
• The direction of the tilt of the axis changes (precession) on a cycle of
26,000 years.
These changes define the sequence of ice ages and warm periods.
1. CHANGE IN EARTH ORBIT-
MILANKOVITCH CYCLES
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6. These changes influence the length of the seasons and the
amount of solar radiation received by the earth and define the
sequence of ice ages & warm ages.
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7. It appears that our Sun does not transmit a constant intensity
of radiation: observations indicate a variability of 0.1-0.2%. If
solar output decreases for a period of time, it causes cooling on
Earth.
Although sunspot activity is cyclical (22 years), we do not
currently have an accurate concept of how solar output has
changed (and will change) on longer time scales.
2. VARIABLE SOLAR RADIATION
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8. 3/24/20198

9. SOLAR VARIATION
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10. 3. ALBEDO EFFECTS
 It is defined as the ratio of
reflected radiation from the
surface to incident radiation
upon it.
 It may expressed as a
percentage, and is
measured on a scale from
zero for no reflecting power
of a perfectly black surface,
to 1 for perfect reflection of
a white surface.
 Ocean water have low
albedo whereas land masses
have moderate albedo. The
highest albedo is snow and
ice (very light in color).
 Hence, periods when polar
ice becomes very extended
will promote further
cooling.
 Dust in the atmosphere has
the same effect: it forms a
high albedo veil around the
Earth, so that much solar
radiation is reflected before
it reaches the surface. The
dust may come from dry
climate periods, volcanic
eruptions or other means.
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11. ALBEDO EFFECT
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12. 4. GREENHOUSE GASSES
 The greenhouse effect is a
process by which thermal
radiation from a planetary
surface is absorbed by
atmospheric greenhouse
gases, and is re-radiated in
all directions.
 If there is no greenhouse
gases, the earth would be
radiate energy into space
and average global
temperature would be (-)
15⁰C.
 Greenhouse gases reduce the
net radiation loss and
stabilized the average global
temperature.
 Without this effect, the Earth
would be cold and
inhospitable.
 Main greenhouse gases & their
percentage on earth are:
 Water vapor, 36-70%
 Carbon dioxide, 9-26%
 Methane, 4-9%
 Ozone, 3-7%
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14.  Huge volume of Carbon dioxide are injected into the ocean and atmosphere
during plate tectonic activities as earthquake and volcanoes.
 The annual transported of carbon to & from the land surface & the atmosphere
and the ocean & the atmosphere is estimated 120 GtC (Gigatonnes of Carbon)
& 90 GtC respectively, and total natural emission is 210 GtC.
 The annual emission of Carbon dioxide to the atmosphere resulting from
human activity is, by comparison, about 7 GtC (about 3% of total natural
annual emissions from the biosphere and the ocean).
 Change in the natural transport of carbon, as well as human activity, have led
to recent increases in atmosphere concentration of carbon dioxide.
PLATE TECTONICS AND GREENHOUSE
EFFECTS
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15. NATURAL CO2 EMISSION SOURCES
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16. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
There are many impacts of
climate change, scientists have
broadly categorized them into
three areas:
 Erratic climate and weather
conditions
 Altered ecosystems and
habitats
 Risks to human health and
society
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Impact of Climate change on human health

17. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE……
 Erratic Climate and weather
conditions
Changes in climate may threaten
with increased temperatures &
sea level rise, changes in
evaporation & precipitation and
more frequent or intense
extreme events. Irregular &
erratic rainfall, snowfall, increase
the frequency and impact of
natural disaster (landslide, Hydro-
meteorological disaster, cyclone,
hurricanes and volcanic
activities).
 Altered ecosystems and
habitats
As climatic patterns rapidly shift,
habitats on land and in the sea
are changing, making them
inhospitable for some species,
while letting others move in and
take over.
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18. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE……
 Risks to human health and society
The impact of climate change on health conditions can be broken
into three main categories:
(i) direct impacts from phenomenon such as drought, heat
waves, and flash floods,
(ii) indirect effects due to climate-induced economic dislocation,
decline, conflict, crop failure, and associated malnutrition and
hunger
(iii) indirect effects due to the spread and aggravated intensity of
infectious diseases due to changing environmental conditions
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19.  As per the Disaster Management Act 2005, India; the ‘Disaster’ means a
catastrophe, mishap, calamity or grave occurrence in any area, arising from
natural or man-made causes, or by accident or negligence, which results in
substantial loss of life or human suffering or damage to, and destruction of
property, or damage to, or degradation of environment, and is of such a
nature or magnitude as to be beyond the coping capacity of the
community of the affected areas.
 The Hydro-meteorological Disaster (HMD) deals with the study of natural
hazards of hydro-meteorological origin. The most of these hazards are the
result of natural processes or phenomena of atmospheric, hydrological or
oceanographic in nature such as floods, tropical cyclones, drought and
desertification.
HYDROMETEROLOGICAL DISASTERS
(HMD)
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20. .
 According to the IPCC, an increase of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, will probably boost temperatures over most land surfaces,
though the exact change will vary regionally. The uncertainty—but
possible—outcomes of an increase in global temperatures include
increased risk of drought and increased intensity of storms, including
tropical cyclones with high wind speeds, a wetter Asian monsoon, and
possibly, more intense mid-latitude storms.
 The report of World Meteorological Organization shows that the first
decade of the 21st century saw a 3,496 natural disasters from floods,
storms, droughts and heat waves. That was nearly five times as many
disasters as the 743 catastrophic events reported during the 1970s – and
all of those weather events are influenced by climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HMD
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21. Number of reported disasters in worldwide
(Key: Dark blue = floods. Light blue = mass movement wet. Green = storms. Yellow = drought.
Magenta = extreme temperature. Orange = Wildfires)
Number of reported disasters in worldwide by hazard type (1971-2010)
(Source: World Meteorological Organization report, 2014. 3/24/201921

22. CLIMATE CHANGE & HMD IN WESTERN
HIMALAYA, INDIA: CASE STUDY
 The Western Himalaya (WH) about 880 km long from the Indus river to the Kali
river, covering a total area of about 4,33,000 km2 in three states of India-Jammu
and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It has three physiographic
provinces- Kashmir Himalaya, Himachal Himalaya and Kumaun Himalaya.
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23. HMD IN WESTERN HIMALAYA (WH)
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 The IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) observations show that events
of extreme rainfall have increased by 50% during the past 50 years. Most of
the extreme events since weather record starting in 1850s have been
noticed in the last decade.
 The flash floods are one of the most common forms of natural disaster in
the WH region. They consist of a sudden and very strong surge of water,
usually along a riverbed or dry gully, which can carry rocks, soil, and other
debris. Whereas ‘normal’ riverine floods can to some extent be predicted,
offering opportunities for preparation and avoidance, flash floods are
sudden, usually unexpected, and allow little time to react.
 The flash floods can be caused by a variety of factors. The main direct causes
in the Himalayan region are intense rainfall events, landslide dam outbursts,
glacial lake outbursts, rapid melting of snow and ice, sudden release of
water stored in glaciers, and failure of artificial structures such as dams and
levees. Most of the flash flood events take place in remote, isolated
catchments where the central governments reach is limited or non-existent.

24. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
GLACIERS IN WH
 The Himalayan region contains the largest area under glaciers and permafrost
outside of polar caps.
 According to IPCC, Himalayan glaciers are melting at a faster pace since late
seventies. A recent study (year 1962 – year 2001 )done by ISRO using Satellite images
concluded that almost 75% of Himalayan Glaciers are receding at a faster rates (Refer
Above Table).
No of glaciers
monitored
Retreat Advance No Change
Fluctuation in different
basin based on Survey of
India topo sheet and
satellite images
2630 2047 435 148
Fluctuation Percentage 77.83 % 16.53% 5.62%
Fluctuation based on
satellite images
2190 1673 158 359
Fluctuation Percentage 76.39% 7.21% 16.39%
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25. S. No River Basin Coverage Trend in Glacier Area Estimation Status of Studied Glaciers
1 Suru, J&K 215 glaciers 17% loss in area (During 1962 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 568 & 474 km2)
Rapid retreat
2 Zanskar, J&K 631 glaciers 15% loss in area (During 1962 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 1107 & 940 km2 respectively)
578 showed retreat (91.6%)
Rapid retreat after 1990
3 Spiti,
Himachal Pradesh
337 glaciers 16% loss in area (During 1962 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 474 & 396 km2 respectively)
169 showed retreat (50%)
Rapid retreat after 2001 and this is the
highest among all basins!
4 Parbati,
Himachal Pradesh
90 glaciers 20% loss in area
5 Nubra, J&K 31 glaciers 6% loss in area (During 1962 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 2150 & 2026 km2 respectively)
This indicates that the glaciers of this basin
are very large in size as compared to other
basins which indicates that the response
time is slow and retreat is less
6 Chandra,
Himachal Pradesh
Bara Shigri,
ChotaShigri, Hamta
and SamudraTapu
glaciers
20% loss in area (During 1961 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 696 & 554 Sq.km.
respectively)
7 Miyar,
Himachal Pradesh
165 glaciers monitored
between 1962-2001.
80 showed retreat (49%)
78 advanced and 7 had no change in
glacier area
8 Bhaga,
Himachal Pradesh
111 glaciers 30% loss in area (During 1961 to 2001 the area
of the glaciers was 363 & 254 sq.km.
respectively)
108 glaciers showed retreat whereas 3 do
not show any change.
Overall: 98% showed retreat
STATUS OF WH GLACIERS
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26. 3/24/201926
9 Warwan,
J&K
230 glaciers 18% loss in area (During 1962 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 740km2& 608km2
respectively)
180 showed retreat (78%)
15 showed no change 35 glaciers advanced
There has been a declining trend of glacier
retreat after 2001.
Overall: 78% glaciers show retreat
10 Bhut ,
J&K
(adjacent to Warwan
Basin)
143 glaciers 7% loss in area (During 1962 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 450 & 417 km2 respectively)
74 showed retreat (52%) 29 showed no
change. 40 glaciers advanced.
Overall: 52% glaciers show retreat. Glacier
retreat after 2001 is rapid adjacent but
contrasting trends.
11 Alakhnanda,
Uttarakhand
(Satopanth&Bhagirath
Kharak are 2 large
glaciers of this basin)
274 glaciers 14% loss in area (During 1962 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 1047 & 905 km2 respectively)
243 showed retreat (88.68%). 4 showed no
change. 27 glaciers advanced
4 showed no change. Glacier retreat for
this basin after 1990 is much rapid.
12 Bhagirathi,
Uttarakhand
(Gangotri group of
glaciers is largest
glacier of this basin)
183 glaciers 11% loss in area (During 1962 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 1218 & 1074 km2 respectively)
117 showed retreat (64%).
39 showed no change. 27 glaciers advanced
Glacier retreat has been slow after 1990.
13 Gauri Ganga,
Uttarakhand
(Milam Glacier)
29 glaciers 4% loss in area (During 1962 to 2001 the area
of glaciers was 272 & 261 km2)
Most glaciers of this basin show retreat
14 Dhauliganga,
Uttarakhand
104 glaciers Dunagiri,
Bagnibamak,Garpak,K
untibhandar,
Gankhuibamak
16% loss in area All showing retreat
Table: Assessment of status of WH Glaciers (Source: Snow and Glaciers of the Himalayas (Study carried out under the joint project of MoEF and
Department of Space), Space Application Centre, Ahmedabad (May 2011); Monitoring done through topographic maps of Survey of India by SAC)

27.  From above table it has been concluded that most of the glaciers in
western Himalaya are receding (expect a few in J & K state, which do
not show any change) However, the rate of recession of many large
glaciers (Siachin and Gangotri) has slowed down over past few
decades and in Ladakh, Zanskar and Great Himalayan ranges of Jammu
& Kashmir, during last three decades most of the glaciers are receding
with glacier volume change ranges between 3.6-97 % with majority of
the glaciers showing 17-25% deglaciation.
RETREATION OF GLACIER IN WH
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28. RETREAT OF GANGOTRI GLACIER
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29. WESTERN HIMALAYAN GLACIERS
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30. Present Time FuturePast Age
PAST HMD LOCATIONS IN WH
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31. CAUSES & FACTORS OF HMD
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Table 4.2: Causes & factors of HMD
or:

32. MITIGATION MEASURES
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33. KEDARNATH FLASH FLOOD PHOTO (JUNE
2013
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34. It is summarized that intensity and frequency of HMD
event increased in last 15 years.
The effect of HMD got more havoc due to present
Climate Change and unscientific development and
changing land use pattern, poor socio-economic
conditions, deforestation, increasing human and cattle
population pressure, increasing tourism etc. have been
increasing the vulnerability of the region to disasters.
The public awareness and implementation of scientific
research may be play major role in mitigate the havoc
effect of HMD.
CONCLUSION
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