Imagine 3.1Tomorrow's Washington
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The document discusses challenges and opportunities for innovation in Washington state. It outlines key elements of an innovation ecosystem including universities, national labs, entrepreneurs, and more. It also addresses issues like the changing nature of work, an ill-prepared education system, and the future of learning. The document advocates for proactive collaboration to drive innovation, and outlines a vision for transformative outcomes through shared, autonomous, electric vehicles. It concludes by encouraging thinking big, starting small, and acting now.
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Imagine 3.1Tomorrow's Washington
- 1. Center for Accelerating Innovation V. 1.3 Imagine Tomorrow’s Washington Egils Milbergs Center for Accelerating Innovation www.accinnov.com November 5, 2015 TEDx Presentaion http://sno-isle.org/tedx Edmonds, Washington
- 2. Imagine the Really Big One Not If, but When
- 3. The Good The Bad And the Ugly
- 4. Buying Local. Buying Global
- 7. A Better and Faster Innovation Model Innovation Ecosystem R&D Assets Universities National Labs Corporate Labs Inventors Transformers Entrepreneurs Incubators Technology Partnerships Funders SBIR Angel/Seed funds Venture Capital Human Capital Talent Pool Education Workforce Development Networks Clusters Associations Social Networks Governments Federal State Local International
- 9. Changing Nature of Work • Disturbing trends • Middle class jobs disappearing • Income inequality • Task outsourcing • Rising cost of education • Growth of 1099 workforce • Tough questions • Can job losers do newly created jobs? • How do you educate people for jobs that don’t exist? • Is career planning an oxymoron? • Is the sequence educate, work, retire model dead? • Is the classroom an obsolete way to learn?
- 10. The Ill-Prepared Education Pipeline Of 100 students entering 9th grade only 36% go directly into college WA ranks 46th in college continuation rate WA ranks 47th in Bachelor's degree production Bad Implications: Continued skill gaps Lost productivity Need to import talent More poverty High social overhead
- 11. How susceptible are jobs to automation? 47% of occupations are at risk Oxford Martin Program on the Impacts of Future Technology
- 12. The Future of Learning •K-99 •Relevant/predictive •Self-directed/flexible •Location independent •Social & participatory •Gamification & fun •Micro-credentials •Industry supported The Wearable University?
- 14. Transformative Path Outcomes Zero Congestion Zero Deaths Zero Emissions Center for Accelerating Innovation 14 Innovation Shared AutonomousElectric
- 15. Driverless Cars Are Closer Than They Appear
- 17. Think Big Start Small Act Now!
Editor's Notes
- Good morning. I am Egils Milbergs. My talk is about how we Washingtonians can create a future that is more prosperous, inclusive and sustainable.
- Here is one future for Washington that I do not like to think about. Our state has more natural disaster risks than almost anywhere else. Many of you have read the New Yorker magazine article about the predicted 9.3 plus magnitude earthquake along the 700 mile long Cascadia subduction zone or plate. The last time this sticky plate moved was in 1700. Experts say it is likely to move violently again within the next 50 years. 2,000 times more powerful, than the Nisqually earthquake of 2001 which was a 6.8 magnitude.. This quake will last a long time, launch a massive tsunami flooding every between the coast and I-5, dozens of aftershocks. 10,000 dead, 30 K injured. Are we ready for this one? Are you ready? That’s all I wanted to say about this Black Swan event. Let’s move on. Let's turn our attention to conditions and events that we have much more control of.
- How many of you have seen this movie starring Clint Eastwood.—The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. I will use this as a metaphor to frame three challenges. The Good is about a thing we have in abundance -- Innovation, The Bad is finding a way to deal to address the issue of job and skill obsolesce. The Ugly is about turning around our failing infrastructure. Let's get started.
- We live in an amazing place, a beautiful natural environment. We also have a veritable rain forest of successful companies. We buy local when it comes to airlines, software, coffee, wine, fashion, vacations, books, apples and much more. We serve billions of people globally providing delivering to them value and a better life with our products and services. What other state, province, region or country on the planet can say this. The credit goes to our entrepreneurs. They had not only design vision for a unique and special product but also the business vision and capabilities to scale up a business. Is our state depending on entrepreneurial accidents? Is that all that matters or can innovation being approached more systematically—increasing the probability of serendipity and creative collisions and a new generation of globally successful companies. We will talk about that in a minute.
- Here is another way to look at this. Data visualization showing how six organizations spawned over 711 firms and institutions that created jobs, income and wealth. In the middle in yellow is Microsoft founded 1975 and it is surrounded by is spin out children and grandchildren. Moving clockwise in red is Amazon founded in 1994, University of Washington 1861, Aldus founded in 1984 now Adobe, McCaw communications founded 1982 now ATT Digital and Boeing founded in 1916. And this visualization only represents data up to 2008—imagine if we had it updated. And I understand that WTIA is working on an update.
- This incredible entrepreneurial dynamic made WA state a leading innovation state. There is no standard way to measure innovation performance comparing all 50 states The New Economy index uses 25 variables to measure innovation performance. The 2014 index places us in 4th place behind Massachusetts, Delaware, California. Not bad, but consider that in 2012 we were in 2nd place. It's not that we were dropping in performance rather others were moving up.
- We need better and faster model for innovation in Washington state.. Why is this? We are in a global innovation race. Boston Consulting Group study compared Seattle globally to 9 other peer cities. We are slipping behind. Singapore, San Francisco, Boston, Amsterdam and Stockholm. They are out pacing us. And Vancouver, Melbourne and Hamburg are nipping at our heels. The traditional innovation model is linear --- research ... development ... engineering ... manufacturing ... marketing. This model of innovation is not speedy nor agile nor can it reprograms resources for new market and technical opportunities very easily. We need to innovate in a larger network of resources---a new way of doing business which is collaborative and multi-disciplinary drawing on ideas, resources outside organizational boundaries. Back in SRI when I was studying R&D management practices the corporate rage was skunk works. Setting up a building somewhere back on the lot, assembling a team in secrecy to work on projects. No leaks out, but that also meant no leaks in. An ecosystem model creates valuable spillovers among many actors—the whole is more than the sum of parts. Real innovation of consequence will no longer be bolted to one organization, one product, or one geography. And innovation will encompass more than technology: behavioral, public policy, marketing, distribution, organizational. Some of our biggest innovation challenges are non-technical. Innovation models will become porous --open to ideas outside the organizational boundaries, drawing on capabilities all across the world and deeply connected to customers. Innovation will become embedded in a system of relationship capital, with shared outcomes and operated collectively by an ecosystem of organizations and individuals. Converting more manufacturers into this way of thinking and working is very much needed --- so they have a steady stream of products to produce here in the US.
- How do you kick start this kind of innovation collaboration. You cannot drive innovation top down. There is a bottom up experiment underway in Washington, While I served state government we designated 14 innovation partnership zones. There was no money in this program—and it turns out that was a good thing. We put out a RFP asking communities to build a partnership between a research university, workforce development organizations and a leading industry cluster. They prepared business plans for growing their economy and jobs in selected technical fields. It was not about getting grant dollars. The business plans were motivated for intrinsic reasons important to the their future prosperity. Snohomish in aerospace technology and workforce development, Bothell biomedical manufacturing, Issaquah sports medicine , Tacoma urban clean water , Clean energy, energy storage and smart grid in Tri-cities, Wine and hospitality, water management and alternative energy in Walla Walla. Interactive Media and Digital Arts in Redmond, Health care in Spokane, sustainable industrial redevelopment in Auburn, Advanced manufacturing in Grays Harbor Craft brewing and distilling in Thurston County While the biggest benefit so far is in branding a number of the IPZs leveraged their designation for millions of dollars in public and private investments and demonstrated the value of collaborative innovation. The Jury is still out on the long term benefits but this initiative was given a first place award by the Council of State Legislatures and recognized as leading edge innovation by the National Governors Association. Walla Walla College received the first place Aspen prize for the best community college in the nation due in part to its engagement with the innovation partnership zone.
- Let's turn our attention to another challenge. It's pretty bad--- a rate limiting factor for our innovation economy. Middle class jobs are disappearing. Huge increases in the number of household with incomes above $125,000 and huge increases in incomes under $35, 000. Little increase in between. Income inequality is growing. Troubling rise in homelessness. Substantial numbers of tasks and manufacturing activities continue to be outsourced. Education is getting more expensive, student debt is piling up and the historic connection between higher levels of education and better economic outcomes is weakening. Explosive growth in people working as independent contractors both full time and part time. Raises some very tough questions Can job losers do newly created jobs? How do you educate people for jobs that don’t exist? Is career planning an oxymoron? Is the sequence educate, work, retire model dead? Is the classroom an obsolete way to learn?
- As our economy becomes more knowledge based math and science literacy are essential for a student completing high school and going on to college. How is our education pipeline doing. Not so great. And the implications are bad. We have thousands of unfilled jobs but our ability to prepare WA citizens to fill them is limited. The skills gap will mean higher recruitment, and training costs and lost productivity if the jobs go unfilled. A particular problem in the IT sector today. The pressure to import talent will increase. For those lacking skills they will head into minimum wage jobs, poverty, go on food stamps, The social overhead costs of a poorly educated, training workforce will become enormous..
- Almost 47 per cent of US jobs could be computerized within one or two decades according a recent Oxford study assessing impact of computers on the US job market. They studied 750 occupations. At high risk: Loan officers, receptionists and information clerks, paralegals and legal assistants, salesperson, taxi drivers, security guards, fast food cooks, bartenders, financial advisors, computer programmers. At low risk: reporters, musicians and singers, lawyers, elementary school teacher, physicians and surgeons. So it will not only be manual, repetitive or routine labor jobs. Computing is taking over cognitive tasks thanks to big data and sophisticated artificial intelligence algorithms. Algorithms are getting smarter than human judgement such as in testing efficacy of drug therapies, fraud detection, pre-trial research in legal cases, stock trading and patient monitoring. The study predicts that computers will substitute people in low wage and low risk jobs in the future. Low skill workers will need to reallocate to tasks that are not susceptible to automation—tasks that require creative and social intelligence. For workers to win the race however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills High wage and high skill jobs are least likely to be computerized.
- We need a revolutionary change in our education and workforce development system. Here are directions for the future First, learning will become a lifetime activity. Cannot depend on today's learning to be relevant 5 years from now so learning will need to become more predictive of skill and competency requirements. . Learning will be more self-directed and by location independent because of mobile devices and cloud education services. The learning consumer will have more and more control of the subject matter, disciplines sequence of learning The most powerful learning is peer to peer Social media will expand the range of collaborators available to help a student be successful. We will see gamification and more virualized envirnoments for education. The virtual and real world will blur. More and more education will be on demand and we will see more micro credentialing. Industry will become a strong player in reshaping and realigning the workforce system. Competency models, assessment tools and credentials will increasingly be designed by industry not educators. Are your children ready for the wearable university. The mobile platform will be your lifetime connection to content, people and data and the platform for collaborative learning and problem solving.
- Have you noticed that Its getting to be a lot harder to move around Seattle. -- According to a study by Kirkland based INRIX the average commuter is spending almost two weeks a year in 65 hours traffic delays. That’s a doubling of commute time since 2012, Over 45 Per cent of carbon emissions comes from our transport sector. And the overwhelming source of the energy for our cars, trucks, planes, ag equipment is fossil fuels. If we are to make a serious dent in lowering carbon emissions it is going to be in the transport sector The US is on track to have its deadliest traffic year since 2007. Between January and June of this year 19,000 people killed as result of motor vehicle accidents up 14 percent from same period last year. and nearly 2.3 million serous injuries. Estimated cost—medical expense, lost wages and productivity and property damage increased 24 percent to $152 billion. The WA state Strategic Highway Safety Goal is zero deaths and serious injuries by 2030. The current path we are on to solve this problem is incremental. Dealing with congestion through tolling, traffic signaling, bus reliability, pedestrian and bicycle lanes/bridges, tunneling, light rail. No surprise that the transportation levy passes the other day. However all these these steps mean even more oil and coal trains moving through our state and particularly vulnerable is down town Seattle. As far as the internal combustion engine we are dealing with fuel standards and carbon taxing and cap and trade. Not clear to what degree these steps will change behavior. In my opinion incremental solutions don’t solve the problem. We need a radical and innovative approach. The path we are on to manage the existing transportation infrastructure is simply not sustainable..
- We have the opportunity to achieve a powerful integration of technological, social and public policy ideas. By combining electric car and battery innovation with autonomous driving technology and leveraging the changing attidtudes to car ownership – have the potential to achieve historic outcomes. Zero emission, zero congestions, and zero deaths.
- The Convergence of Autonomy, Electrification and Vehicle Sharing is coming very fast. From the upper left see the image from the GM Futurama exhibit at the 1939 New York world's fair. Next image is my electric car of 1976—pre Elon Musk Next image is from the DARPA challenge of 2004 to produce an autonomous vehicle for the military. And next image is driverless Uber car---all electric, all autonomous, all capable of safely navigating urban streets. The era of shared mobility system is upon us. In fact Uber has essential adopted an entire research unit at Carnegie Mellon working on autonomous vehicles and robots. New cars have powered the economy since WWII but it appears that Millennials may have little in interest in owning cars and for that matter owning suburban houses. Uber, lyft, flexcar, zip. car to go etc. are examples of the sharing economy. Cities are taking steps to make it difficult or rationalize owning a car. Taxation, congestion pricing and going car free (London, Oslo, Hamburg, Singapore, Stockholm , Milan). License place rationing Mexico City, Bogota, Sao Paulo, Auckland, Athens, and Santiago. Collaborative Autonomous Vehicles are coming. Triples the volume that can be handled over the transportation grid. And autonomous vehicle offer the prospect of accident free driving. Washington can be the leading state in managing the development and diffusion of this new transportation system.
- How many of you have read this fantastic story. Boys in the Boat is the story of the UW 1936 Olympics rowing team that completed a tough competition to represent the US in this global and worldwide event. This is a great story . Reads like a novel And it is an inspiring story for how to collaborate and win. With little prospect this group of 9 guys and coaches worked with amazing leadership, strategies and rowing innovation to dominate the national rowing championships in Poughkeepsie NY---a very popular sport in the 1930s and went on to win the 1936 Berlin Olympics. A story as compelling as Jesse Owens. And more instructive in the following sense. If you want to travel fast travel alone—but if you want to travel far travel together.
- So to summarize. We should take a strategic and long term view in a number of areas. This presentation highlights three priority areas. Leveraging our intellectual capital and enabling innovation clusters to emerge and thrive bottom up. . It will require a number actions Developing a new wearable personalized learning system made possible through digital and cloud technology's so students can prepare for careers that are less likely to automate Transforming out personal transportation system to one that is shared, more efficient, accident free and environmentally benign. Let's get out of our cages and lets start innovating and experimenting on solutions. We all have contribution to make. Washington should be state full of experiments. Some will work some not but eventually we will see what's working and can be adopted as best practices. An don’t count on our political process to facilitate and guide us to get this done. A politicians job is to tell us what we want to hear. It is our job to tell them what they need to know. Whatever your role or profession in this wonderful state –we all have a contribution to make. Here is my advice. Think Big Start Small Act Now My name is Egils Milbergs and thank you for your attention.