In literature of time series prediction the autoregressive integrated moving
average(ARIMA) models have been explained clearly. This paper using the ARIMA
model, elaborates the process of building stock trend predictive model. Published
data of stock price obtained from National Stock Exchange (NSE) during the period
from Jan-2007 to Dec-2011. The results obtained revealed that for short-term
prediction the ARIMA model which has a strong prospects and for stock price
prediction even it can be positively compete with existing techniques.
Study of effectiveness of time series modeling (arima) in forecasting stock p...IJCSEA Journal
Stock price prediction has always attracted interest because of the direct financial benefit and the
associated complexity. From our literature review, we felt the need of a study having sector specific
analysis with a broad range of stocks. In this paper, we have conducted a study on the effectiveness of
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)model, on fifty six Indian stocks from different sectors.
We have chosen ARIMA model, because of its simplicity and wide acceptability of the model. We also have
studied the effect on prediction accuracy based on various possible previous period data taken. The
comparison and parameterization of the ARIMA model have been done using Akaike information criterion
(AIC). The contribution of the paper , are a) coverage of a good number of Indian stocks b) Analysis of the
models based on sectors c) Analysis of prediction accuracy based on the varying span of previous period
data.
This document summarizes a study that used three data mining techniques - Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Naive Bayesian Classifier - to predict the direction of movement of the Tehran Stock Exchange index. Ten microeconomic and three macroeconomic variables were used as inputs to models built with each technique. The Decision Tree model was found to have the best performance at 80.08% accuracy, followed by Random Forest at 78.81% and Naive Bayesian Classifier at 73.84% based on testing the models on 20% of the data not used for training. The study aimed to develop predictive models for the emerging Tehran stock market using classification techniques from data mining.
This paper investigates if forecasting models based on Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms are capable to predict intraday prices in the small, frontier stock market of Romania. The results show that this is indeed the case. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the various models improves as the forecasting horizon increases. Overall, ML forecasting models are superior to the passive buy and hold strategy, as well as to a naïve strategy that always predicts the last known price action will continue. However, we also show that this superior predictive ability cannot be converted into “abnormal”, economically significant profits after considering transaction costs. This implies that intraday stock prices incorporate information within the accepted bounds of weak-form market efficiency, and cannot be “timed” even by sophisticated investors equipped with state of the art ML prediction models.
9. the efficiency of volatility financial model withikhwanecdc
This document summarizes a study that investigates the effectiveness of volatility financial models with the presence of additive outliers via Monte Carlo simulation. The study simulates data using an ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,2) model with different sample sizes of 500, 1000, and 1400, both with and without 10% additive outliers added. The effectiveness of the models is evaluated based on error metrics and information criteria. The results indicate that the effectiveness of the ARMA-GARCH model diminishes as sample size increases in the presence of additive outliers.
Regression, theil’s and mlp forecasting models of stock indexIAEME Publication
This document compares different forecasting models for daily stock prices: linear regression, Theil's incomplete method, and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Principal component analysis was used to reduce 4 stock price variables to 1 principal component, which was then used to predict closing prices. Linear regression and Theil's method produced similar results, with MAE around 110 and R-squared over 0.99. MLP had slightly higher error at 118 MAE. Overall, linear regression and Theil's method provided the best forecasts of closing stock prices based on this analysis of models and error metrics.
Regression, theil’s and mlp forecasting models of stock indexiaemedu
This document compares different forecasting models for daily stock prices: linear regression, Theil's incomplete method, and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Principal component analysis was used to reduce the input variables to a single component. Linear regression and Theil's method had similar error rates that were lower than MLP based on MAE, MAPE, and SMAPE. The linear regression and Theil's method models had R-squared values near 1, indicating close fit to the data. Overall, the linear and Theil's models provided more accurate short-term forecasts of daily stock prices than the MLP based on error and fit metrics.
A LINEAR REGRESSION APPROACH TO PREDICTION OF STOCK MARKET TRADING VOLUME: A ...ijmvsc
Predicting daily behavior of stock market is a serious challenge for investors and corporate stockholders and it can help them to invest with more confident by taking risks and fluctuations into consideration. In this paper, by applying linear regression for predicting behavior of S&P 500 index, we prove that our proposed method has a similar and good performance in comparison to real volumes and the stockholders can invest confidentially based on that.
Operations research is a quantitative approach to solving real-world problems. It originated during World War I when military operations were analyzed quantitatively. It has since been applied to areas like transportation, logistics, and business management. Models are important in operations research as they allow complex real-world problems to be abstracted and analyzed mathematically. There are different types of models including iconic, analog, and symbolic models. Symbolic models using mathematical symbols are most commonly used in operations research. Well-designed models should be adaptable, have few assumptions, and involve limited variables. Models provide a systematic approach to problem-solving but must be tested and their assumptions validated.
Study of effectiveness of time series modeling (arima) in forecasting stock p...IJCSEA Journal
Stock price prediction has always attracted interest because of the direct financial benefit and the
associated complexity. From our literature review, we felt the need of a study having sector specific
analysis with a broad range of stocks. In this paper, we have conducted a study on the effectiveness of
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)model, on fifty six Indian stocks from different sectors.
We have chosen ARIMA model, because of its simplicity and wide acceptability of the model. We also have
studied the effect on prediction accuracy based on various possible previous period data taken. The
comparison and parameterization of the ARIMA model have been done using Akaike information criterion
(AIC). The contribution of the paper , are a) coverage of a good number of Indian stocks b) Analysis of the
models based on sectors c) Analysis of prediction accuracy based on the varying span of previous period
data.
This document summarizes a study that used three data mining techniques - Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Naive Bayesian Classifier - to predict the direction of movement of the Tehran Stock Exchange index. Ten microeconomic and three macroeconomic variables were used as inputs to models built with each technique. The Decision Tree model was found to have the best performance at 80.08% accuracy, followed by Random Forest at 78.81% and Naive Bayesian Classifier at 73.84% based on testing the models on 20% of the data not used for training. The study aimed to develop predictive models for the emerging Tehran stock market using classification techniques from data mining.
This paper investigates if forecasting models based on Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms are capable to predict intraday prices in the small, frontier stock market of Romania. The results show that this is indeed the case. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the various models improves as the forecasting horizon increases. Overall, ML forecasting models are superior to the passive buy and hold strategy, as well as to a naïve strategy that always predicts the last known price action will continue. However, we also show that this superior predictive ability cannot be converted into “abnormal”, economically significant profits after considering transaction costs. This implies that intraday stock prices incorporate information within the accepted bounds of weak-form market efficiency, and cannot be “timed” even by sophisticated investors equipped with state of the art ML prediction models.
9. the efficiency of volatility financial model withikhwanecdc
This document summarizes a study that investigates the effectiveness of volatility financial models with the presence of additive outliers via Monte Carlo simulation. The study simulates data using an ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,2) model with different sample sizes of 500, 1000, and 1400, both with and without 10% additive outliers added. The effectiveness of the models is evaluated based on error metrics and information criteria. The results indicate that the effectiveness of the ARMA-GARCH model diminishes as sample size increases in the presence of additive outliers.
Regression, theil’s and mlp forecasting models of stock indexIAEME Publication
This document compares different forecasting models for daily stock prices: linear regression, Theil's incomplete method, and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Principal component analysis was used to reduce 4 stock price variables to 1 principal component, which was then used to predict closing prices. Linear regression and Theil's method produced similar results, with MAE around 110 and R-squared over 0.99. MLP had slightly higher error at 118 MAE. Overall, linear regression and Theil's method provided the best forecasts of closing stock prices based on this analysis of models and error metrics.
Regression, theil’s and mlp forecasting models of stock indexiaemedu
This document compares different forecasting models for daily stock prices: linear regression, Theil's incomplete method, and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Principal component analysis was used to reduce the input variables to a single component. Linear regression and Theil's method had similar error rates that were lower than MLP based on MAE, MAPE, and SMAPE. The linear regression and Theil's method models had R-squared values near 1, indicating close fit to the data. Overall, the linear and Theil's models provided more accurate short-term forecasts of daily stock prices than the MLP based on error and fit metrics.
A LINEAR REGRESSION APPROACH TO PREDICTION OF STOCK MARKET TRADING VOLUME: A ...ijmvsc
Predicting daily behavior of stock market is a serious challenge for investors and corporate stockholders and it can help them to invest with more confident by taking risks and fluctuations into consideration. In this paper, by applying linear regression for predicting behavior of S&P 500 index, we prove that our proposed method has a similar and good performance in comparison to real volumes and the stockholders can invest confidentially based on that.
Operations research is a quantitative approach to solving real-world problems. It originated during World War I when military operations were analyzed quantitatively. It has since been applied to areas like transportation, logistics, and business management. Models are important in operations research as they allow complex real-world problems to be abstracted and analyzed mathematically. There are different types of models including iconic, analog, and symbolic models. Symbolic models using mathematical symbols are most commonly used in operations research. Well-designed models should be adaptable, have few assumptions, and involve limited variables. Models provide a systematic approach to problem-solving but must be tested and their assumptions validated.
Financial time series forecasting has received
tremendous interest by both the individual and institutional
investors and hence by the researchers. But the high noise and
complexity residing in the financial data makes this job extremely
challenging. Over the years many researchers have used support
vector regression (SVR) quite successfully to conquer this
challenge. As the latent high noise in the data impairs the
performance, reducing the noise could be effective while
constructing the forecasting model. To accomplish this task,
integration of principal component analysis (PCA) and SVR is
proposed in this research work. In the first step, a set of technical
indicators are calculated from the daily transaction data of the
target stock and then PCA is applied to these values aiming to
extract the principle components. After filtering the principal
components, a model is finally constructed to forecast the future
price of the target stocks. The performance of the proposed
approach is evaluated with 16 years’ daily transactional data of
three leading stocks from different sectors listed in Dhaka Stock
Exchange (DSE), Bangladesh. Empirical results show that the
proposed model enhances the performance of the prediction
model and also the short-term prediction gains more accuracy
than long-term prediction.
This document provides an overview of the course content for Operations Research and Operations Management.
The Operations Research course covers topics like linear programming, transportation problems, assignment problems, network analysis, queuing theory, and game theory. The Operations Management course covers operations planning and control, production scheduling, quality control, materials management, and stores management.
Both courses discuss quantitative and analytical techniques for decision-making in business operations and supply chain management. The goal is to introduce conceptual frameworks and mathematical models to optimize resource allocation, maximize efficiency, and minimize costs across different operational functions and processes.
The document presents a methodology for predicting stock market prices using support vector machine regression (SVR) with different windowing techniques. It involves collecting historical stock market data, preprocessing the data using various windowing approaches to convert the time series to a supervised learning format, training SVR models on the windowed data with different parameters, and evaluating the models' ability to predict stock prices on testing data. The results show that de-flattening and 5-day windows achieved the lowest prediction errors compared to the actual stock prices in the testing period.
Andrew Hieber has taken extensive graduate coursework in fields like advanced calculus, design of experiments, dynamic programming, engineering management, financial options, corporate finance, game theory, information systems, linear programming, quality control, scheduling, and stochastic processes. He also completed relevant undergraduate coursework in topics such as business/engineering statistics, circuits, economics, linear algebra, physics/mechanics, programming, materials science, and work analysis. Additionally, he fulfilled pre-med requirements with biology, inorganic/organic chemistry courses.
This document discusses using machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of movements in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. It compares the performance of artificial neural networks (ANN) to logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, and k-nearest neighbors classification. The ANN achieved approximately 61% accuracy in predicting the direction of returns using opening stock prices, outperforming the other techniques. The document serves to analyze which algorithm provides the most accurate financial forecasts.
This document provides information on the Management Science course for the MBA Sem II program from 2011-2013. It outlines the course objectives, vision, pedagogy, outcomes, prerequisites, assessment scheme, textbooks, and 6 modules that make up the course content. The modules cover topics such as introduction to management science, project management using CPM/PERT, decision theory and game theory, linear programming, transportation problems, and assignment and sequencing problems.
The document describes an Operations Research course. It includes 8 units covering topics like linear programming, transportation problems, queuing theory, PERT-CPM techniques, game theory, and integer programming. It provides details of each unit including the number of lecture hours and the topics to be covered. It also lists the textbooks and reference books for the course. The course aims to introduce students to various operations research techniques and their applications in decision making.
IRJET- Stock Market Forecasting Techniques: A SurveyIRJET Journal
This document surveys various techniques for stock market forecasting, including traditional and recent methods using machine learning and artificial intelligence. It discusses techniques like artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, support vector regression, and deep learning. It also reviews several research papers that have applied methods like ARIMA models, improved Levenberg-Marquardt training for neural networks, feedforward neural networks for the Stock Exchange of Thailand index, improved multiple linear regression in an Android app, support vector regression with windowing operators on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, hidden Markov models compared to neural networks and support vector machines, a hybrid support vector regression and filtering model, and using J48 decision trees and random forests with preprocessing.
STOCK PRICE PREDICTION USING TIME SERIESIRJET Journal
This document discusses using time series analysis and ARIMA modeling to predict stock prices. It begins with an introduction that explains why accurately predicting stock prices is challenging but important for investors. It then provides an overview of time series analysis and some common time series forecasting techniques like ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and naive methods. The document reviews related work applying machine learning to securities market prediction. It outlines the methodology, which involves gathering stock market data and analyzing it with ARIMA and other time series models to forecast future stock prices. Finally, it discusses the existing methodology and limitations of solely using ARIMA modeling for time series forecasting.
STOCK PRICE PREDICTION USING TIME SERIESIRJET Journal
This document discusses using time series analysis and machine learning algorithms to predict stock prices. Specifically, it analyzes using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model and other techniques like exponential smoothing, naive forecasting, seasonal naive forecasting and neural networks. The document outlines the existing methodology for stock price prediction, which involves collecting historical data, cleaning it, and using it to train and test models. It then evaluates the performance of ARIMA and exponential smoothing models on stock price data from Yahoo Finance, finding they achieved 97.6% accuracy, outperforming other algorithms. The conclusion is that time series methods like ARIMA and exponential smoothing produced reliable models when the training data exhibited strong trends, but
A novel hybrid deep learning model for price prediction IJECEIAES
Price prediction has become a major task due to the explosive increase in the number of investors. The price prediction task has various types such as shares, stocks, foreign exchange instruments, and cryptocurrency. The literature includes several models for price prediction that can be classified based on the utilized methods into three main classes, namely, deep learning, machine learning, and statistical. In this context, we proposed several models’ architectures for price prediction. Among them, we proposed a hybrid one that incorporates long short-term memory (LSTM) and Convolution neural network (CNN) architectures, we called it CNN-LSTM. The proposed CNNLSTM model makes use of the characteristics of the convolution layers for extracting useful features embedded in the time series data and the ability of LSTM architecture to learn long-term dependencies. The proposed architectures are thoroughly evaluated and compared against state-of-the-art methods on three different types of financial product datasets for stocks, foreign exchange instruments, and cryptocurrency. The obtained results show that the proposed CNN-LSTM has the best performance on average for the utilized evaluation metrics. Moreover, the proposed deep learning models were dominant in comparison to the state-of-the-art methods, machine learning models, and statistical models.
This document compares the accuracy of ARIMA, LSTM, and linear regression models for stock price prediction. It downloads historic stock price data for NASDAQ and NSE stocks and uses 80% for training and 20% for testing the models. For the NASDAQ stock, ARIMA and LSTM models have more accurate predictions than linear regression, with lower RMSE values. However, for the NSE stock, LSTM and linear regression predictions are more accurate than ARIMA. The results are displayed using Python plots and code, with RMSE values provided to compare prediction accuracy between the different models.
The International Journal of Engineering and Science (IJES)theijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
IRJET- Prediction of Stock Market using Machine Learning AlgorithmsIRJET Journal
The document discusses predicting stock market prices using machine learning algorithms. It reviews past research applying algorithms like KNN, neural networks, ARIMA and random forest to stock price prediction. The paper aims to compare the performance of supervised learning algorithms like logistic regression, KNN and random forest on stock market datasets to determine the most accurate for predicting future prices. It reviews literature on the topic and discusses the methodology and algorithms that will be used to make predictions on datasets from five companies.
IRJET- Stock Price Prediction using combination of LSTM Neural Networks, ARIM...IRJET Journal
This document proposes a method to predict stock prices using a combination of long short-term memory neural networks, autoregressive integrated moving average time series modeling, and sentiment analysis. These three techniques are combined in an ensemble learning approach using a feedforward neural network to make final predictions. By combining deep learning, time series analysis, and natural language processing, the system aims to generate more accurate stock price forecasts.
This document presents a literature review and proposed framework for stock market prediction. It discusses using long short-term memory (LSTM), support vector regression (SVR), linear regression, and sentiment analysis models individually and in a hybrid ensemble model. The models are trained on historical stock price and sentiment data to predict future stock trends. Results show the hybrid model achieves higher prediction accuracy than individual models. Visualizations of predicted versus actual prices are generated to evaluate model performance. The proposed framework aims to help investors make more informed buy, sell, and hold decisions.
IRJET- Enhancement in Financial Time Series Prediction with Feature Extra...IRJET Journal
The document discusses using text mining techniques like Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to extract features from financial news articles that can help predict stock market movements. It proposes a new model called Financial LDA (FinLDA) that extends LDA by incorporating changes in financial data. FinLDA is evaluated using news articles and S&P 500 index data, with the extracted features used as inputs to support vector machines (SVM) and neural networks to validate their usefulness for prediction. The goal is to build a model that can predict stock trends based on analyzing relevant news contents using time series analysis and text mining methods.
STOCK PRICE PREDICTION AND RECOMMENDATION USINGMACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES AN...IRJET Journal
This document discusses using machine learning techniques and sentiment analysis of Twitter data to predict stock prices and recommend buying or selling stocks. It evaluates ARIMA, LSTM, and linear regression models for stock price prediction and uses TextBlob to analyze the sentiment of recent tweets about a company and provide recommendations based on the overall sentiment polarity. For Apple stock, ARIMA had the lowest RMSE of 3.54, while LSTM achieved an RMSE of 5.64 after 30 epochs. Sentiment analysis of Apple tweets found an overall positive polarity. The models were also tested on Yes Bank stock.
The document summarizes research on machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. It classifies techniques into three categories: time series analysis, neural networks, and hybrid techniques. Neural networks are identified as generally performing best, especially when combined with data preprocessing methods. The document implements and compares techniques including layered recurrent neural networks (LRNN), which performed better than feedforward neural networks and wavelet neural network (Wsmpca-NN) at predicting stock prices of companies.
IRJET- Stock Market Prediction using Machine Learning TechniquesIRJET Journal
This document discusses using machine learning techniques to predict stock market prices. It proposes building a machine learning model that uses historical stock data to predict future stock prices. The model would go through preprocessing, processing, and regression analysis of the dataset to make predictions. Predicting stock market movements accurately is challenging, but this model aims to generate results using machine learning and deep learning algorithms on the dataset to help investors make trading decisions.
Survey Paper on Stock Prediction Using Machine Learning AlgorithmsIRJET Journal
This document discusses various machine learning algorithms that have been used for stock market prediction, including CNN, ARIMA, LSTM, random forests, and support vector machines. It provides a literature review of past research applying these algorithms to predict stock prices using historical data. The document concludes that LSTM and ARIMA models generally provide the best predictions based on evaluating various algorithms on large datasets of historical stock market data.
Analysis of Nifty 50 index stock market trends using hybrid machine learning ...IJECEIAES
Predicting equities market trends is one of the most challenging tasks for market participants. This study aims to apply machine learning algorithms to aid in accurate Nifty 50 index trend predictions. The paper compares and contrasts four forecasting methods: artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), naive bayes (NB), and random forest (RF). In this study, the eight technical indicators are used, and then the deterministic trend layer is used to translate the indications into trend signals. The principal component analysis (PCA) method is then applied to this deterministic trend signal. This study's main influence is using the PCA technique to find the essential components from multiple technical indicators affecting stock prices to reduce data dimensionality and improve model performance. As a result, a PCA-machine learning (ML) hybrid forecasting model was proposed. The experimental findings suggest that the technical factors are signified as trend signals and that the PCA approach combined with ML models outperforms the comparative models in prediction performance. Utilizing the first three principal components (percentage of explained variance=80%), experiments on the Nifty 50 index show that support vector classifier (SVC) with radial basis function (RBF) kernel achieves good accuracy of (0.9968) and F1-score (0.9969), and the RF model achieves an accuracy of (0.9969) and F1-Score (0.9968). In area under the curve (AUC) performance, SVC (RBF and Linear kernels) and RF have AUC scores of 1.
Financial time series forecasting has received
tremendous interest by both the individual and institutional
investors and hence by the researchers. But the high noise and
complexity residing in the financial data makes this job extremely
challenging. Over the years many researchers have used support
vector regression (SVR) quite successfully to conquer this
challenge. As the latent high noise in the data impairs the
performance, reducing the noise could be effective while
constructing the forecasting model. To accomplish this task,
integration of principal component analysis (PCA) and SVR is
proposed in this research work. In the first step, a set of technical
indicators are calculated from the daily transaction data of the
target stock and then PCA is applied to these values aiming to
extract the principle components. After filtering the principal
components, a model is finally constructed to forecast the future
price of the target stocks. The performance of the proposed
approach is evaluated with 16 years’ daily transactional data of
three leading stocks from different sectors listed in Dhaka Stock
Exchange (DSE), Bangladesh. Empirical results show that the
proposed model enhances the performance of the prediction
model and also the short-term prediction gains more accuracy
than long-term prediction.
This document provides an overview of the course content for Operations Research and Operations Management.
The Operations Research course covers topics like linear programming, transportation problems, assignment problems, network analysis, queuing theory, and game theory. The Operations Management course covers operations planning and control, production scheduling, quality control, materials management, and stores management.
Both courses discuss quantitative and analytical techniques for decision-making in business operations and supply chain management. The goal is to introduce conceptual frameworks and mathematical models to optimize resource allocation, maximize efficiency, and minimize costs across different operational functions and processes.
The document presents a methodology for predicting stock market prices using support vector machine regression (SVR) with different windowing techniques. It involves collecting historical stock market data, preprocessing the data using various windowing approaches to convert the time series to a supervised learning format, training SVR models on the windowed data with different parameters, and evaluating the models' ability to predict stock prices on testing data. The results show that de-flattening and 5-day windows achieved the lowest prediction errors compared to the actual stock prices in the testing period.
Andrew Hieber has taken extensive graduate coursework in fields like advanced calculus, design of experiments, dynamic programming, engineering management, financial options, corporate finance, game theory, information systems, linear programming, quality control, scheduling, and stochastic processes. He also completed relevant undergraduate coursework in topics such as business/engineering statistics, circuits, economics, linear algebra, physics/mechanics, programming, materials science, and work analysis. Additionally, he fulfilled pre-med requirements with biology, inorganic/organic chemistry courses.
This document discusses using machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of movements in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. It compares the performance of artificial neural networks (ANN) to logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, and k-nearest neighbors classification. The ANN achieved approximately 61% accuracy in predicting the direction of returns using opening stock prices, outperforming the other techniques. The document serves to analyze which algorithm provides the most accurate financial forecasts.
This document provides information on the Management Science course for the MBA Sem II program from 2011-2013. It outlines the course objectives, vision, pedagogy, outcomes, prerequisites, assessment scheme, textbooks, and 6 modules that make up the course content. The modules cover topics such as introduction to management science, project management using CPM/PERT, decision theory and game theory, linear programming, transportation problems, and assignment and sequencing problems.
The document describes an Operations Research course. It includes 8 units covering topics like linear programming, transportation problems, queuing theory, PERT-CPM techniques, game theory, and integer programming. It provides details of each unit including the number of lecture hours and the topics to be covered. It also lists the textbooks and reference books for the course. The course aims to introduce students to various operations research techniques and their applications in decision making.
IRJET- Stock Market Forecasting Techniques: A SurveyIRJET Journal
This document surveys various techniques for stock market forecasting, including traditional and recent methods using machine learning and artificial intelligence. It discusses techniques like artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, support vector regression, and deep learning. It also reviews several research papers that have applied methods like ARIMA models, improved Levenberg-Marquardt training for neural networks, feedforward neural networks for the Stock Exchange of Thailand index, improved multiple linear regression in an Android app, support vector regression with windowing operators on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, hidden Markov models compared to neural networks and support vector machines, a hybrid support vector regression and filtering model, and using J48 decision trees and random forests with preprocessing.
STOCK PRICE PREDICTION USING TIME SERIESIRJET Journal
This document discusses using time series analysis and ARIMA modeling to predict stock prices. It begins with an introduction that explains why accurately predicting stock prices is challenging but important for investors. It then provides an overview of time series analysis and some common time series forecasting techniques like ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and naive methods. The document reviews related work applying machine learning to securities market prediction. It outlines the methodology, which involves gathering stock market data and analyzing it with ARIMA and other time series models to forecast future stock prices. Finally, it discusses the existing methodology and limitations of solely using ARIMA modeling for time series forecasting.
STOCK PRICE PREDICTION USING TIME SERIESIRJET Journal
This document discusses using time series analysis and machine learning algorithms to predict stock prices. Specifically, it analyzes using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model and other techniques like exponential smoothing, naive forecasting, seasonal naive forecasting and neural networks. The document outlines the existing methodology for stock price prediction, which involves collecting historical data, cleaning it, and using it to train and test models. It then evaluates the performance of ARIMA and exponential smoothing models on stock price data from Yahoo Finance, finding they achieved 97.6% accuracy, outperforming other algorithms. The conclusion is that time series methods like ARIMA and exponential smoothing produced reliable models when the training data exhibited strong trends, but
A novel hybrid deep learning model for price prediction IJECEIAES
Price prediction has become a major task due to the explosive increase in the number of investors. The price prediction task has various types such as shares, stocks, foreign exchange instruments, and cryptocurrency. The literature includes several models for price prediction that can be classified based on the utilized methods into three main classes, namely, deep learning, machine learning, and statistical. In this context, we proposed several models’ architectures for price prediction. Among them, we proposed a hybrid one that incorporates long short-term memory (LSTM) and Convolution neural network (CNN) architectures, we called it CNN-LSTM. The proposed CNNLSTM model makes use of the characteristics of the convolution layers for extracting useful features embedded in the time series data and the ability of LSTM architecture to learn long-term dependencies. The proposed architectures are thoroughly evaluated and compared against state-of-the-art methods on three different types of financial product datasets for stocks, foreign exchange instruments, and cryptocurrency. The obtained results show that the proposed CNN-LSTM has the best performance on average for the utilized evaluation metrics. Moreover, the proposed deep learning models were dominant in comparison to the state-of-the-art methods, machine learning models, and statistical models.
This document compares the accuracy of ARIMA, LSTM, and linear regression models for stock price prediction. It downloads historic stock price data for NASDAQ and NSE stocks and uses 80% for training and 20% for testing the models. For the NASDAQ stock, ARIMA and LSTM models have more accurate predictions than linear regression, with lower RMSE values. However, for the NSE stock, LSTM and linear regression predictions are more accurate than ARIMA. The results are displayed using Python plots and code, with RMSE values provided to compare prediction accuracy between the different models.
The International Journal of Engineering and Science (IJES)theijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
IRJET- Prediction of Stock Market using Machine Learning AlgorithmsIRJET Journal
The document discusses predicting stock market prices using machine learning algorithms. It reviews past research applying algorithms like KNN, neural networks, ARIMA and random forest to stock price prediction. The paper aims to compare the performance of supervised learning algorithms like logistic regression, KNN and random forest on stock market datasets to determine the most accurate for predicting future prices. It reviews literature on the topic and discusses the methodology and algorithms that will be used to make predictions on datasets from five companies.
IRJET- Stock Price Prediction using combination of LSTM Neural Networks, ARIM...IRJET Journal
This document proposes a method to predict stock prices using a combination of long short-term memory neural networks, autoregressive integrated moving average time series modeling, and sentiment analysis. These three techniques are combined in an ensemble learning approach using a feedforward neural network to make final predictions. By combining deep learning, time series analysis, and natural language processing, the system aims to generate more accurate stock price forecasts.
This document presents a literature review and proposed framework for stock market prediction. It discusses using long short-term memory (LSTM), support vector regression (SVR), linear regression, and sentiment analysis models individually and in a hybrid ensemble model. The models are trained on historical stock price and sentiment data to predict future stock trends. Results show the hybrid model achieves higher prediction accuracy than individual models. Visualizations of predicted versus actual prices are generated to evaluate model performance. The proposed framework aims to help investors make more informed buy, sell, and hold decisions.
IRJET- Enhancement in Financial Time Series Prediction with Feature Extra...IRJET Journal
The document discusses using text mining techniques like Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to extract features from financial news articles that can help predict stock market movements. It proposes a new model called Financial LDA (FinLDA) that extends LDA by incorporating changes in financial data. FinLDA is evaluated using news articles and S&P 500 index data, with the extracted features used as inputs to support vector machines (SVM) and neural networks to validate their usefulness for prediction. The goal is to build a model that can predict stock trends based on analyzing relevant news contents using time series analysis and text mining methods.
STOCK PRICE PREDICTION AND RECOMMENDATION USINGMACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES AN...IRJET Journal
This document discusses using machine learning techniques and sentiment analysis of Twitter data to predict stock prices and recommend buying or selling stocks. It evaluates ARIMA, LSTM, and linear regression models for stock price prediction and uses TextBlob to analyze the sentiment of recent tweets about a company and provide recommendations based on the overall sentiment polarity. For Apple stock, ARIMA had the lowest RMSE of 3.54, while LSTM achieved an RMSE of 5.64 after 30 epochs. Sentiment analysis of Apple tweets found an overall positive polarity. The models were also tested on Yes Bank stock.
The document summarizes research on machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. It classifies techniques into three categories: time series analysis, neural networks, and hybrid techniques. Neural networks are identified as generally performing best, especially when combined with data preprocessing methods. The document implements and compares techniques including layered recurrent neural networks (LRNN), which performed better than feedforward neural networks and wavelet neural network (Wsmpca-NN) at predicting stock prices of companies.
IRJET- Stock Market Prediction using Machine Learning TechniquesIRJET Journal
This document discusses using machine learning techniques to predict stock market prices. It proposes building a machine learning model that uses historical stock data to predict future stock prices. The model would go through preprocessing, processing, and regression analysis of the dataset to make predictions. Predicting stock market movements accurately is challenging, but this model aims to generate results using machine learning and deep learning algorithms on the dataset to help investors make trading decisions.
Survey Paper on Stock Prediction Using Machine Learning AlgorithmsIRJET Journal
This document discusses various machine learning algorithms that have been used for stock market prediction, including CNN, ARIMA, LSTM, random forests, and support vector machines. It provides a literature review of past research applying these algorithms to predict stock prices using historical data. The document concludes that LSTM and ARIMA models generally provide the best predictions based on evaluating various algorithms on large datasets of historical stock market data.
Analysis of Nifty 50 index stock market trends using hybrid machine learning ...IJECEIAES
Predicting equities market trends is one of the most challenging tasks for market participants. This study aims to apply machine learning algorithms to aid in accurate Nifty 50 index trend predictions. The paper compares and contrasts four forecasting methods: artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), naive bayes (NB), and random forest (RF). In this study, the eight technical indicators are used, and then the deterministic trend layer is used to translate the indications into trend signals. The principal component analysis (PCA) method is then applied to this deterministic trend signal. This study's main influence is using the PCA technique to find the essential components from multiple technical indicators affecting stock prices to reduce data dimensionality and improve model performance. As a result, a PCA-machine learning (ML) hybrid forecasting model was proposed. The experimental findings suggest that the technical factors are signified as trend signals and that the PCA approach combined with ML models outperforms the comparative models in prediction performance. Utilizing the first three principal components (percentage of explained variance=80%), experiments on the Nifty 50 index show that support vector classifier (SVC) with radial basis function (RBF) kernel achieves good accuracy of (0.9968) and F1-score (0.9969), and the RF model achieves an accuracy of (0.9969) and F1-Score (0.9968). In area under the curve (AUC) performance, SVC (RBF and Linear kernels) and RF have AUC scores of 1.
The usage of Neural network s has determined a variegated area of packages in the present world. This has caused the
improvement of various fashions for economic markets and funding. This paper represents the idea the way to predict share
market fee the use of artificial Neural community with a given enter parameters of share marketplace. The proportion
marketplace is dynamic in nature approach to expect percentage fee could be very complex method by using trendy prediction
or computation method. Its predominant motive is that there is no linear relationship between market parameters and target last
price. Since there is no linear relationship between input patterns and corresponding output patterns, so use of neural network is
a desire of hobby for share market prediction.
International Journal of Engineering Research and Development (IJERD)IJERD Editor
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This document proposes a stock market forecasting system that uses both a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and a decision tree algorithm. The GARCH model is used to predict stock prices and their volatility over time. A decision tree algorithm is then applied to optimize the GARCH model by reducing errors and false predictions. The decision tree assigns weights to parameters like earnings per share, sales revenue, and trading volume to classify the quality of the input data. This combined GARCH and decision tree approach aims to more accurately forecast stock market movements and prices.
STOCK MARKET PREDICTION USING MACHINE LEARNING IN PYTHONIRJET Journal
This document discusses using machine learning techniques to predict stock market prices. Specifically, it evaluates using support vector machines, random forests, and regression models. It finds that support vector regression with an RBF kernel performed best compared to other models at accurately predicting stock prices based on historical data. The paper also reviews several related works applying machine learning methods like neural networks and support vector machines to financial time series data for stock prediction.
This document discusses using machine learning techniques to predict stock market prices. It begins with an introduction to existing stock prediction methods like fundamental and technical analysis. The proposed system would use machine learning models to analyze historical stock price data and sentiment analysis of news articles to predict future stock prices, volatility, and market trends. The methodology section outlines different models, including using only historical prices, classifying sentiment of news, and aspect-based sentiment analysis. Features like stock price volatility, momentum, and index momentum would be used. The conclusion states that accurately predicting the complex stock market requires considering various factors.
Submission Deadline: 30th September 2022
Acceptance Notification: Within Three Days’ time period
Online Publication: Within 24 Hrs. time Period
Expected Date of Dispatch of Printed Journal: 5th October 2022
MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF SURFACE ROUGHNESS AND WHITE LATER THICKNESS IN WIRE-...IAEME Publication
White layer thickness (WLT) formed and surface roughness in wire electric discharge turning (WEDT) of tungsten carbide composite has been made to model through response surface methodology (RSM). A Taguchi’s standard Design of experiments involving five input variables with three levels has been employed to establish a mathematical model between input parameters and responses. Percentage of cobalt content, spindle speed, Pulse on-time, wire feed and pulse off-time were changed during the experimental tests based on the Taguchi’s orthogonal array L27 (3^13). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that the mathematical models obtained can adequately describe performance within the parameters of the factors considered. There was a good agreement between the experimental and predicted values in this study.
A STUDY ON THE REASONS FOR TRANSGENDER TO BECOME ENTREPRENEURSIAEME Publication
The study explores the reasons for a transgender to become entrepreneurs. In this study transgender entrepreneur was taken as independent variable and reasons to become as dependent variable. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire containing a five point Likert Scale. The study examined the data of 30 transgender entrepreneurs in Salem Municipal Corporation of Tamil Nadu State, India. Simple Random sampling technique was used. Garrett Ranking Technique (Percentile Position, Mean Scores) was used as the analysis for the present study to identify the top 13 stimulus factors for establishment of trans entrepreneurial venture. Economic advancement of a nation is governed upon the upshot of a resolute entrepreneurial doings. The conception of entrepreneurship has stretched and materialized to the socially deflated uncharted sections of transgender community. Presently transgenders have smashed their stereotypes and are making recent headlines of achievements in various fields of our Indian society. The trans-community is gradually being observed in a new light and has been trying to achieve prospective growth in entrepreneurship. The findings of the research revealed that the optimistic changes are taking place to change affirmative societal outlook of the transgender for entrepreneurial ventureship. It also laid emphasis on other transgenders to renovate their traditional living. The paper also highlights that legislators, supervisory body should endorse an impartial canons and reforms in Tamil Nadu Transgender Welfare Board Association.
BROAD UNEXPOSED SKILLS OF TRANSGENDER ENTREPRENEURSIAEME Publication
Since ages gender difference is always a debatable theme whether caused by nature, evolution or environment. The birth of a transgender is dreadful not only for the child but also for their parents. The pain of living in the wrong physique and treated as second class victimized citizen is outrageous and fully harboured with vicious baseless negative scruples. For so long, social exclusion had perpetuated inequality and deprivation experiencing ingrained malign stigma and besieged victims of crime or violence across their life spans. They are pushed into the murky way of life with a source of eternal disgust, bereft sexual potency and perennial fear. Although they are highly visible but very little is known about them. The common public needs to comprehend the ravaged arrogance on these insensitive souls and assist in integrating them into the mainstream by offering equal opportunity, treat with humanity and respect their dignity. Entrepreneurship in the current age is endorsing the gender fairness movement. Unstable careers and economic inadequacy had inclined one of the gender variant people called Transgender to become entrepreneurs. These tiny budding entrepreneurs resulted in economic transition by means of employment, free from the clutches of stereotype jobs, raised standard of living and handful of financial empowerment. Besides all these inhibitions, they were able to witness a platform for skill set development that ignited them to enter into entrepreneurial domain. This paper epitomizes skill sets involved in trans-entrepreneurs of Thoothukudi Municipal Corporation of Tamil Nadu State and is a groundbreaking determination to sightsee various skills incorporated and the impact on entrepreneurship.
DETERMINANTS AFFECTING THE USER'S INTENTION TO USE MOBILE BANKING APPLICATIONSIAEME Publication
The banking and financial services industries are experiencing increased technology penetration. Among them, the banking industry has made technological advancements to better serve the general populace. The economy focused on transforming the banking sector's system into a cashless, paperless, and faceless one. The researcher wants to evaluate the user's intention for utilising a mobile banking application. The study also examines the variables affecting the user's behaviour intention when selecting specific applications for financial transactions. The researcher employed a well-structured questionnaire and a descriptive study methodology to gather the respondents' primary data utilising the snowball sampling technique. The study includes variables like performance expectations, effort expectations, social impact, enabling circumstances, and perceived risk. Each of the aforementioned variables has a major impact on how users utilise mobile banking applications. The outcome will assist the service provider in comprehending the user's history with mobile banking applications.
ANALYSE THE USER PREDILECTION ON GPAY AND PHONEPE FOR DIGITAL TRANSACTIONSIAEME Publication
Technology upgradation in banking sector took the economy to view that payment mode towards online transactions using mobile applications. This system enabled connectivity between banks, Merchant and user in a convenient mode. there are various applications used for online transactions such as Google pay, Paytm, freecharge, mobikiwi, oxygen, phonepe and so on and it also includes mobile banking applications. The study aimed at evaluating the predilection of the user in adopting digital transaction. The study is descriptive in nature. The researcher used random sample techniques to collect the data. The findings reveal that mobile applications differ with the quality of service rendered by Gpay and Phonepe. The researcher suggest the Phonepe application should focus on implementing the application should be user friendly interface and Gpay on motivating the users to feel the importance of request for money and modes of payments in the application.
VOICE BASED ATM FOR VISUALLY IMPAIRED USING ARDUINOIAEME Publication
The prototype of a voice-based ATM for visually impaired using Arduino is to help people who are blind. This uses RFID cards which contain users fingerprint encrypted on it and interacts with the users through voice commands. ATM operates when sensor detects the presence of one person in the cabin. After scanning the RFID card, it will ask to select the mode like –normal or blind. User can select the respective mode through voice input, if blind mode is selected the balance check or cash withdraw can be done through voice input. Normal mode procedure is same as the existing ATM.
IMPACT OF EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE ON HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AMONG...IAEME Publication
There is increasing acceptability of emotional intelligence as a major factor in personality assessment and effective human resource management. Emotional intelligence as the ability to build capacity, empathize, co-operate, motivate and develop others cannot be divorced from both effective performance and human resource management systems. The human person is crucial in defining organizational leadership and fortunes in terms of challenges and opportunities and walking across both multinational and bilateral relationships. The growing complexity of the business world requires a great deal of self-confidence, integrity, communication, conflict and diversity management to keep the global enterprise within the paths of productivity and sustainability. Using the exploratory research design and 255 participants the result of this original study indicates strong positive correlation between emotional intelligence and effective human resource management. The paper offers suggestions on further studies between emotional intelligence and human capital development and recommends for conflict management as an integral part of effective human resource management.
VISUALISING AGING PARENTS & THEIR CLOSE CARERS LIFE JOURNEY IN AGING ECONOMYIAEME Publication
Our life journey, in general, is closely defined by the way we understand the meaning of why we coexist and deal with its challenges. As we develop the "inspiration economy", we could say that nearly all of the challenges we have faced are opportunities that help us to discover the rest of our journey. In this note paper, we explore how being faced with the opportunity of being a close carer for an aging parent with dementia brought intangible discoveries that changed our insight of the meaning of the rest of our life journey.
A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PERFO...IAEME Publication
The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of aspects of Organizational Culture on the Effectiveness of the Performance Management System (PMS) in the Health Care Organization at Thanjavur. Organizational Culture and PMS play a crucial role in present-day organizations in achieving their objectives. PMS needs employees’ cooperation to achieve its intended objectives. Employees' cooperation depends upon the organization’s culture. The present study uses exploratory research to examine the relationship between the Organization's culture and the Effectiveness of the Performance Management System. The study uses a Structured Questionnaire to collect the primary data. For this study, Thirty-six non-clinical employees were selected from twelve randomly selected Health Care organizations at Thanjavur. Thirty-two fully completed questionnaires were received.
Living in 21st century in itself reminds all of us the necessity of police and its administration. As more and more we are entering into the modern society and culture, the more we require the services of the so called ‘Khaki Worthy’ men i.e., the police personnel. Whether we talk of Indian police or the other nation’s police, they all have the same recognition as they have in India. But as already mentioned, their services and requirements are different after the like 26th November, 2008 incidents, where they without saving their own lives has sacrificed themselves without any hitch and without caring about their respective family members and wards. In other words, they are like our heroes and mentors who can guide us from the darkness of fear, militancy, corruption and other dark sides of life and so on. Now the question arises, if Gandhi would have been alive today, what would have been his reaction/opinion to the police and its functioning? Would he have some thing different in his mind now what he had been in his mind before the partition or would he be going to start some Satyagraha in the form of some improvement in the functioning of the police administration? Really these questions or rather night mares can come to any one’s mind, when there is too much confusion is prevailing in our minds, when there is too much corruption in the society and when the polices working is also in the questioning because of one or the other case throughout the India. It is matter of great concern that we have to thing over our administration and our practical approach because the police personals are also like us, they are part and parcel of our society and among one of us, so why we all are pin pointing towards them.
A STUDY ON TALENT MANAGEMENT AND ITS IMPACT ON EMPLOYEE RETENTION IN SELECTED...IAEME Publication
The goal of this study was to see how talent management affected employee retention in the selected IT organizations in Chennai. The fundamental issue was the difficulty to attract, hire, and retain talented personnel who perform well and the gap between supply and demand of talent acquisition and retaining them within the firms. The study's main goals were to determine the impact of talent management on employee retention in IT companies in Chennai, investigate talent management strategies that IT companies could use to improve talent acquisition, performance management, career planning and formulate retention strategies that the IT firms could use. The respondents were given a structured close-ended questionnaire with the 5 Point Likert Scale as part of the study's quantitative research design. The target population consisted of 289 IT professionals. The questionnaires were distributed and collected by the researcher directly. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to collect and analyse the questionnaire responses. Hypotheses that were formulated for the various areas of the study were tested using a variety of statistical tests. The key findings of the study suggested that talent management had an impact on employee retention. The studies also found that there is a clear link between the implementation of talent management and retention measures. Management should provide enough training and development for employees, clarify job responsibilities, provide adequate remuneration packages, and recognise employees for exceptional performance.
ATTRITION IN THE IT INDUSTRY DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC: LINKING EMOTIONAL INTE...IAEME Publication
Globally, Millions of dollars were spent by the organizations for employing skilled Information Technology (IT) professionals. It is costly to replace unskilled employees with IT professionals possessing technical skills and competencies that aid in interconnecting the business processes. The organization’s employment tactics were forced to alter by globalization along with technological innovations as they consistently diminish to remain lean, outsource to concentrate on core competencies along with restructuring/reallocate personnel to gather efficiency. As other jobs, organizations or professions have become reasonably more appropriate in a shifting employment landscape, the above alterations trigger both involuntary as well as voluntary turnover. The employee view on jobs is also afflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic along with the employee-driven labour market. So, having effective strategies is necessary to tackle the withdrawal rate of employees. By associating Emotional Intelligence (EI) along with Talent Management (TM) in the IT industry, the rise in attrition rate was analyzed in this study. Only 303 respondents were collected out of 350 participants to whom questionnaires were distributed. From the employees of IT organizations located in Bangalore (India), the data were congregated. A simple random sampling methodology was employed to congregate data as of the respondents. Generating the hypothesis along with testing is eventuated. The effect of EI and TM along with regression analysis between TM and EI was analyzed. The outcomes indicated that employee and Organizational Performance (OP) were elevated by effective EI along with TM.
INFLUENCE OF TALENT MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE A STUD...IAEME Publication
By implementing talent management strategy, organizations would have the option to retain their skilled professionals while additionally working on their overall performance. It is the course of appropriately utilizing the ideal individuals, setting them up for future top positions, exploring and dealing with their performance, and holding them back from leaving the organization. It is employee performance that determines the success of every organization. The firm quickly obtains an upper hand over its rivals in the event that its employees having particular skills that cannot be duplicated by the competitors. Thus, firms are centred on creating successful talent management practices and processes to deal with the unique human resources. Firms are additionally endeavouring to keep their top/key staff since on the off chance that they leave; the whole store of information leaves the firm's hands. The study's objective was to determine the impact of talent management on organizational performance among the selected IT organizations in Chennai. The study recommends that talent management limitedly affects performance. On the off chance that this talent is appropriately management and implemented properly, organizations might benefit as much as possible from their maintained assets to support development and productivity, both monetarily and non-monetarily.
A STUDY OF VARIOUS TYPES OF LOANS OF SELECTED PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS...IAEME Publication
Banking regulations act of India, 1949 defines banking as “acceptance of deposits for the purpose of lending or investment from the public, repayment on demand or otherwise and withdrawable through cheques, drafts order or otherwise”, the major participants of the Indian financial system are commercial banks, the financial institution encompassing term lending institutions. Investments institutions, specialized financial institution and the state level development banks, non banking financial companies (NBFC) and other market intermediaries such has the stock brokers and money lenders are among the oldest of the certain variants of NBFC and the oldest market participants. The asset quality of banks is one of the most important indicators of their financial health. The Indian banking sector has been facing severe problems of increasing Non- Performing Assets (NPAs). The NPAs growth directly and indirectly affects the quality of assets and profitability of banks. It also shows the efficiency of banks credit risk management and the recovery effectiveness. NPA do not generate any income, whereas, the bank is required to make provisions for such as assets that why is a double edge weapon. This paper outlines the concept of quality of bank loans of different types like Housing, Agriculture and MSME loans in state Haryana of selected public and private sector banks. This study is highlighting problems associated with the role of commercial bank in financing Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SME). The overall objective of the research was to assess the effect of the financing provisions existing for the setting up and operations of MSMEs in the country and to generate recommendations for more robust financing mechanisms for successful operation of the MSMEs, in turn understanding the impact of MSME loans on financial institutions due to NPA. There are many research conducted on the topic of Non- Performing Assets (NPA) Management, concerning particular bank, comparative study of public and private banks etc. In this paper the researcher is considering the aggregate data of selected public sector and private sector banks and attempts to compare the NPA of Housing, Agriculture and MSME loans in state Haryana of public and private sector banks. The tools used in the study are average and Anova test and variance. The findings reveal that NPA is common problem for both public and private sector banks and is associated with all types of loans either that is housing loans, agriculture loans and loans to SMES. NPAs of both public and private sector banks show the increasing trend. In 2010-11 GNPA of public and private sector were at same level it was 2% but after 2010-11 it increased in many fold and at present there is GNPA in some more than 15%. It shows the dark area of Indian banking sector.
EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF MECHANICAL AND TRIBOLOGICAL RELATION OF NYLON/BaSO4 POL...IAEME Publication
An experiment conducted in this study found that BaSO4 changed Nylon 6's mechanical properties. By changing the weight ratios, BaSO4 was used to make Nylon 6. This Researcher looked into how hard Nylon-6/BaSO4 composites are and how well they wear. Experiments were done based on Taguchi design L9. Nylon-6/BaSO4 composites can be tested for their hardness number using a Rockwell hardness testing apparatus. On Nylon/BaSO4, the wear behavior was measured by a wear monitor, pinon-disc friction by varying reinforcement, sliding speed, and sliding distance, and the microstructure of the crack surfaces was observed by SEM. This study provides significant contributions to ultimate strength by increasing BaSO4 content up to 16% in the composites, and sliding speed contributes 72.45% to the wear rate
ROLE OF SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN RURAL DEVELOPMENT OF INDIA - PROBLEMS AND ...IAEME Publication
The majority of the population in India lives in villages. The village is the back bone of the country. Village or rural industries play an important role in the national economy, particularly in the rural development. Developing the rural economy is one of the key indicators towards a country’s success. Whether it be the need to look after the welfare of the farmers or invest in rural infrastructure, Governments have to ensure that rural development isn’t compromised. The economic development of our country largely depends on the progress of rural areas and the standard of living of rural masses. Village or rural industries play an important role in the national economy, particularly in the rural development. Rural entrepreneurship is based on stimulating local entrepreneurial talent and the subsequent growth of indigenous enterprises. It recognizes opportunity in the rural areas and accelerates a unique blend of resources either inside or outside of agriculture. Rural entrepreneurship brings an economic value to the rural sector by creating new methods of production, new markets, new products and generate employment opportunities thereby ensuring continuous rural development. Social Entrepreneurship has the direct and primary objective of serving the society along with the earning profits. So, social entrepreneurship is different from the economic entrepreneurship as its basic objective is not to earn profits but for providing innovative solutions to meet the society needs which are not taken care by majority of the entrepreneurs as they are in the business for profit making as a sole objective. So, the Social Entrepreneurs have the huge growth potential particularly in the developing countries like India where we have huge societal disparities in terms of the financial positions of the population. Still 22 percent of the Indian population is below the poverty line and also there is disparity among the rural & urban population in terms of families living under BPL. 25.7 percent of the rural population & 13.7 percent of the urban population is under BPL which clearly shows the disparity of the poor people in the rural and urban areas. The need to develop social entrepreneurship in agriculture is dictated by a large number of social problems. Such problems include low living standards, unemployment, and social tension. The reasons that led to the emergence of the practice of social entrepreneurship are the above factors. The research problem lays upon disclosing the importance of role of social entrepreneurship in rural development of India. The paper the tendencies of social entrepreneurship in India, to present successful examples of such business for providing recommendations how to improve situation in rural areas in terms of social entrepreneurship development. Indian government has made some steps towards development of social enterprises, social entrepreneurship, and social in- novation, but a lot remains to be improved.
OPTIMAL RECONFIGURATION OF POWER DISTRIBUTION RADIAL NETWORK USING HYBRID MET...IAEME Publication
Distribution system is a critical link between the electric power distributor and the consumers. Most of the distribution networks commonly used by the electric utility is the radial distribution network. However in this type of network, it has technical issues such as enormous power losses which affect the quality of the supply. Nowadays, the introduction of Distributed Generation (DG) units in the system help improve and support the voltage profile of the network as well as the performance of the system components through power loss mitigation. In this study network reconfiguration was done using two meta-heuristic algorithms Particle Swarm Optimization and Gravitational Search Algorithm (PSO-GSA) to enhance power quality and voltage profile in the system when simultaneously applied with the DG units. Backward/Forward Sweep Method was used in the load flow analysis and simulated using the MATLAB program. Five cases were considered in the Reconfiguration based on the contribution of DG units. The proposed method was tested using IEEE 33 bus system. Based on the results, there was a voltage profile improvement in the system from 0.9038 p.u. to 0.9594 p.u.. The integration of DG in the network also reduced power losses from 210.98 kW to 69.3963 kW. Simulated results are drawn to show the performance of each case.
APPLICATION OF FRUGAL APPROACH FOR PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT - A CASE STUDY OF...IAEME Publication
Manufacturing industries have witnessed an outburst in productivity. For productivity improvement manufacturing industries are taking various initiatives by using lean tools and techniques. However, in different manufacturing industries, frugal approach is applied in product design and services as a tool for improvement. Frugal approach contributed to prove less is more and seems indirectly contributing to improve productivity. Hence, there is need to understand status of frugal approach application in manufacturing industries. All manufacturing industries are trying hard and putting continuous efforts for competitive existence. For productivity improvements, manufacturing industries are coming up with different effective and efficient solutions in manufacturing processes and operations. To overcome current challenges, manufacturing industries have started using frugal approach in product design and services. For this study, methodology adopted with both primary and secondary sources of data. For primary source interview and observation technique is used and for secondary source review has done based on available literatures in website, printed magazines, manual etc. An attempt has made for understanding application of frugal approach with the study of manufacturing industry project. Manufacturing industry selected for this project study is Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. This paper will help researcher to find the connections between the two concepts productivity improvement and frugal approach. This paper will help to understand significance of frugal approach for productivity improvement in manufacturing industry. This will also help to understand current scenario of frugal approach in manufacturing industry. In manufacturing industries various process are involved to deliver the final product. In the process of converting input in to output through manufacturing process productivity plays very critical role. Hence this study will help to evolve status of frugal approach in productivity improvement programme. The notion of frugal can be viewed as an approach towards productivity improvement in manufacturing industries.
A MULTIPLE – CHANNEL QUEUING MODELS ON FUZZY ENVIRONMENTIAEME Publication
In this paper, we investigated a queuing model of fuzzy environment-based a multiple channel queuing model (M/M/C) ( /FCFS) and study its performance under realistic conditions. It applies a nonagonal fuzzy number to analyse the relevant performance of a multiple channel queuing model (M/M/C) ( /FCFS). Based on the sub interval average ranking method for nonagonal fuzzy number, we convert fuzzy number to crisp one. Numerical results reveal that the efficiency of this method. Intuitively, the fuzzy environment adapts well to a multiple channel queuing models (M/M/C) ( /FCFS) are very well.
artificial intelligence and data science contents.pptxGauravCar
What is artificial intelligence? Artificial intelligence is the ability of a computer or computer-controlled robot to perform tasks that are commonly associated with the intellectual processes characteristic of humans, such as the ability to reason.
› ...
Artificial intelligence (AI) | Definitio
Advanced control scheme of doubly fed induction generator for wind turbine us...IJECEIAES
This paper describes a speed control device for generating electrical energy on an electricity network based on the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) used for wind power conversion systems. At first, a double-fed induction generator model was constructed. A control law is formulated to govern the flow of energy between the stator of a DFIG and the energy network using three types of controllers: proportional integral (PI), sliding mode controller (SMC) and second order sliding mode controller (SOSMC). Their different results in terms of power reference tracking, reaction to unexpected speed fluctuations, sensitivity to perturbations, and resilience against machine parameter alterations are compared. MATLAB/Simulink was used to conduct the simulations for the preceding study. Multiple simulations have shown very satisfying results, and the investigations demonstrate the efficacy and power-enhancing capabilities of the suggested control system.
KuberTENes Birthday Bash Guadalajara - K8sGPT first impressionsVictor Morales
K8sGPT is a tool that analyzes and diagnoses Kubernetes clusters. This presentation was used to share the requirements and dependencies to deploy K8sGPT in a local environment.
Use PyCharm for remote debugging of WSL on a Windo cf5c162d672e4e58b4dde5d797...shadow0702a
This document serves as a comprehensive step-by-step guide on how to effectively use PyCharm for remote debugging of the Windows Subsystem for Linux (WSL) on a local Windows machine. It meticulously outlines several critical steps in the process, starting with the crucial task of enabling permissions, followed by the installation and configuration of WSL.
The guide then proceeds to explain how to set up the SSH service within the WSL environment, an integral part of the process. Alongside this, it also provides detailed instructions on how to modify the inbound rules of the Windows firewall to facilitate the process, ensuring that there are no connectivity issues that could potentially hinder the debugging process.
The document further emphasizes on the importance of checking the connection between the Windows and WSL environments, providing instructions on how to ensure that the connection is optimal and ready for remote debugging.
It also offers an in-depth guide on how to configure the WSL interpreter and files within the PyCharm environment. This is essential for ensuring that the debugging process is set up correctly and that the program can be run effectively within the WSL terminal.
Additionally, the document provides guidance on how to set up breakpoints for debugging, a fundamental aspect of the debugging process which allows the developer to stop the execution of their code at certain points and inspect their program at those stages.
Finally, the document concludes by providing a link to a reference blog. This blog offers additional information and guidance on configuring the remote Python interpreter in PyCharm, providing the reader with a well-rounded understanding of the process.
Batteries -Introduction – Types of Batteries – discharging and charging of battery - characteristics of battery –battery rating- various tests on battery- – Primary battery: silver button cell- Secondary battery :Ni-Cd battery-modern battery: lithium ion battery-maintenance of batteries-choices of batteries for electric vehicle applications.
Fuel Cells: Introduction- importance and classification of fuel cells - description, principle, components, applications of fuel cells: H2-O2 fuel cell, alkaline fuel cell, molten carbonate fuel cell and direct methanol fuel cells.
2. Mohankumari C, Vishukumar M and Nagaraja Rao Chillale
http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 1773 editor@iaeme.com
Forecasting is a necessity of human life and a common problem in all branches of
learning. Financial and economic problems are domains in which forecasting is of major
importance.
Stock market analysts have adopted many statistical techniques likes Auto Regressive
Moving Average (ARMA) , Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Auto
Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH),Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional
Heteroscadasticity (GARCH), ARMA-EGARCH , Box and Jenkins approach along with
various soft computing and evolutionary computing methods.
An interesting area of research is Prediction, it will continue to be making researchers in
the realm field and also desires to improve existing predictive models. In the stock market we
focus on the real world problem.
1.1. Literature survey
Uma Devi and et.al[2] explains the seasonal trend and flow is the highlight of the
stock market. Eventually investors as well as the stock broking company will also
observe and capture the variations, as constant growth of the index. This will help new
investor as well as existing ones to make a strategic decision. It can be achieved by
experience and the constant observation by the investors. In order to overcome the
above said issues, ARIMA algorithm has been suggested in three steps, Step 1: Model
identification , Step 2: Model estimation and Step 3: Forecasting.
Ayodele Adebiyi, A and et.al[1] , Uma Devi, B and et.al [2] Pai, P and et.al[3] Wang,
J.J and et.al [4] and Wei, L.Y[5] authors explains to execute in financial forecasting
due to complex nature of stock market Stock price prediction is regarded as one of the
most difficult task.
Atsalakis, G.S and et.al[6] explained in this paper as to catch hold of any forecasting
method is the desire of many investors which would give assurance of easy profit and
minimize investment risk from the stock market. For researchers to develop gradually
new predictive models remains a motivating factor.
Mitra, S.K[7] , Atsalakis, G.S and et.al[8] , Mohamed, M.M[9] authors asserted as in
the past years, to predict stock prices several models and techniques had been
developed. One of them is: an artificial neural networks (ANNs) model due to its
ability to learn patterns from data and infer solution from unknown data are very
popular. Few related works on ANNs model are given in their literature for stock price
prediction.
Wang, J.J and et.al[4] defined in recent time, to improve stock price predictive models
by exploiting the unique strength hybrid approaches have also been engaged. ANNs is
from artificial intelligence perspectives. From statistical models perspective ARIMA
models have been derived. Generally, from two perspectives: statistical and artificial
intelligence techniques the prediction can be done it is reported in their literature.
Merh, N and et.al[10] , Sterba, J and et.al[11] and Javier, C and et.al[12] defined as in
financial time series forecasting, ARIMA models are known to be robust and efficient,
especially for short-term prediction than the popular ANNs techniques. In fields of
Economics and Finance they have been extensively used. Other statistical models like:
regression method, exponential smoothing, generalized autoregressive and conditional
heteroskedasticity (GARCH) are also discussed.
Few related works for forecasting using ARIMA model also been discussed by [13,
14, 15, 16, 17, 18] also.
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For our proposed research, extensive process of building ARIMA models for short-term
stock price prediction is presented. The results obtained from real-life data demonstrated the
potential strength of ARIMA models to provide investors short-term prediction that could aid
investment decision making process. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section-2
presents brief overview of ARIMA model. Section-3 describes the methods (methodology)
used, while section-4 discusses the experimental results obtained. The paper is concluded in
section-5 with observations.
2. ARIMA MODEL
The general model introduced by Box and Jenkins (1976) includes AR (autoregressive) as
well as MA(moving average) parameters includes I(differencing) in the formulation of the
model[Text book]. It also referred to as Box-Jenkins methods composed of set of activities for
identifying, estimating and diagnosing ARIMA models with time series data[20]. The model
is most prominent methods in financial forecasting [3, 14, 11]. ARIMA models have shown
efficient capability to generate short-term forecasts. It constantly outperformed complex
structural models in short-term prediction [19]. In ARIMA model, the future value of a
variable is a linear combination of past values and past errors, expressed as follows:
Yt = μ or ϕ0 + ϕ1 Yt-1 + ϕ2 Yt-2 +...+ ϕpYt-p + Ɛt - θ1 Ɛt-1 - θ2 Ɛt-2 -...- θq Ɛt-q .(1)
where, Yt is the actual value, μ or ϕ0 is a constant, εt is the random error at t, ϕi and θj are
the coefficients of p and q which are integers that are often referred to as autoregressive and
moving average parameters, respectively.
3. METHODS
The method to develop ARIMA model for stock price forecasting is used in this study is
explained in detail in the subsections below. The tool, used for implementation is R-Software
and Eviews software version 8.1. Stock data used in this research work are historical daily
stock prices, obtained from five companies. The data is composed of four elements, namely:
open price, low price, high price and close price respectively. In this research the closing
price is chosen to represent the price of the index for prediction. Closing price is chosen
because in a trading day it reflects all the activities of the index.
Among several experiments performed to regulate the best ARIMA model, in this study the
following criteria are used for stock index.
i. Relatively small AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) or BIC (Bayesian or Schwarz
Information Criterion)
ii. Relatively small standard error of regression (S.E. of regression)
iii. Relatively high of adjusted R2
.
iv. Q-statistics and Correlogram show that there is no significant pattern left in the
autocorrelation functions (ACFs) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACFs) of the
residuals, it means the residual of the selected model are white noise.
The ARIMA model-development process is described in below subsections.
3.1. Descriptive Statistics of the Stock Index
NSE stock data is used in this study covers the period from 2nd
January, 2007 to 30th
December, 2011 having a total number of 1236 observations. Table-1 represents the summary
statistics of 5 companies. Serving to discover tests for normality is to run descriptive statistics
to get Skewness and Kurtosis.
4. Mohankumari C, Vishukumar M and Nagaraja Rao Chillale
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Skewness is the tilt (or lack of it) in a distribution. The more common type is right skew,
where the smaller tail points to the right. Less common is left skew, where the smaller tail is
points left. Skew should be within +1 to -1 range when the data are normally distributed. We
observed that Skewness for the daily returns of all the stocks are within +1 to -1, which is an
indication that the data are normally distributed.
Kurtosis is the peakedness of a distribution (i.e., kurtosis should be within +3 to -3 range
when the data are normally distributed). From the table-1, we observe that kurtosis of
TECHMAHINDRA has high kurtosis(>3) which is an indication that data are not normally
distributed. But we assume in the long run the variables are normally distributed.
Table 1 SUMMARY STATISTICS of Daily data of companies HCL, INFOSYS, TCS,
TECHMAHINDRA and WIPRO
INDEX/COM
PNIES
HCL INFOSYS TCS
TECH_MA
HINDRA
WIPRO
Observations 1236 1236 1236 1236 1236
Mean 161.2614 549.6627 680.3454 208.1490 164.4384
Median 164.2650 541.1700 617.6000 186.7550 168.0400
Maximum 261.4300 870.3700 1239.850 495.2000 245.6800
Minimum 44.85000 275.5800 223.1000 52.33000 60.27000
Std. Dev. 52.78538 150.7456 292.7018 87.24827 46.59308
Skewness -0.304600 0.044723 0.341765 0.691708 -0.462491
Kurtosis 2.520548 1.860538 1.906683 3.323833 2.359956
3.2. An ARIMA (p, d, q) Model for Stock Index
3.2.1. Model Identification
Figure- 1 renders (reproduce) to have general overview of the original pattern whether the
time series is stationary or not. From the figure-1 we can see the time series have random
walk pattern.
5. Analysis of Daily Stock Trend Prediction using Arima Model
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Figure 1 Graphical representation of the Stock closing price of HCL, INFOSYS, TCS,
TECH_MAHINDRA, WIPRO
3.2.2. Model Estimation
Figures- 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are the correlograms of HCL, INFOSYS, TCS TECHMAHINDRA
and WIPRO. From the graphs, the time series is seems to be non-stationary, since the ACF
dies down extremely slowly. "If the series is not stationary, it is converted to a stationary
series by differencing [lag]". After the first difference (D), the differencing series of HCL,
INFOSYS, TCS, TECHMAHINDRA and WIPRO becomes stationary as shown in figures-
7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 of the correlograms respectively.
6. Mohankumari C, Vishukumar M and Nagaraja Rao Chillale
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Figure 2: CORRLOGRAM OF HCL Figure 3 CORRELOGRAM OF INFOSYS
7. Analysis of Daily Stock Trend Prediction using Arima Model
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Figure 4 CORRELOGRAM OF TCS Figure 5 CORRELOGRAM OFTECHMAHINDRA
17. Analysis of Daily Stock Trend Prediction using Arima Model
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companies such as HCL, INFOSYS, TCS, TECHMAHINDRA and WIPRO. Among the
various ARIMA models: ARIMA (2, 1, 0) is considered the best for HCL, ARIMA(1,0,0) is
considered the best for INFOSYS, ARIMA(2,1,2) is considered the best for TCS,
ARIMA(2,1,2) is considered the best for TECHMAHINDRA and ARIMA(1,0,1) is
considered the best for WIPRO. The model contains the smallest Akaike information
criterion(AIC) and relatively smallest standard error(SE) of regression.
Figure 12 Correlogram of Residuals
Figure-12 represents the correlogram of residuals of the series. If the model is good, the
random errors will be residuals of the series. Since there are no significant spikes of ACFs
and PACFs, which means that are white noise of the residuals of the selected ARIMA models,
in the time series no other significant patterns are left. Therefore, there is no need to consider
any AR(p) and MA(q) further.
The bold and coloured row represents among the several experiments are the best
ARIMA model as shown in tables- 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
18. Mohankumari C, Vishukumar M and Nagaraja Rao Chillale
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4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
In the below section the experimental results of each of stock index are discussed.
4.1. Result for NSE Stock Price Prediction of companies such as HCL, INFOSYS,
TCS, TECHMAHINDRA and WIPRO of ARIMA Model
The graphical illustration to see the performance of the ARIMA model selected by the level of
accuracy of the predicted price against actual stock price. It is obvious that the performance is
come to be satisfactory from the graphs.
4.2. Discussion
Figures-13, 14, 15, 16 and 17 explains that the values are minimal and the performance is
satisfactory can be seen from the graph.
Figure 13 FORECAST GRAPH of HCL
Figure 14 FORECAST GRAPH of INFOSYS
20. Mohankumari C, Vishukumar M and Nagaraja Rao Chillale
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Among the various ARIMA models: (2, 1, 0) is considered the best for HCL, (1,0,0) is
considered the best for INFOSYS, (2,1,2) is considered the best for TCS, (2,1,2) is considered
the best for TECHMAHINDRA and (1,0,1) is considered the best for WIPRO.
Companies→Index↓ HCL INFOSYS TCS TECHMAHINDRA WIPRO
RMSE 37.2189 88.2364 128.3115 54.4238 33.0578
MAE 29.2033 71.9108 101.7401 40.7803 26.4469
MAPE 26.8530 14.6673 22.0895 31.9529 20.6701
Variance 0.4965 0.3155 0.2171 0.2237 0.4272
Table 7 Forecasting measures of companies
From the table-7 we can see the forecast index among the various companies.
Based on the discussion of forecasting we can write the best models for companies HCL,
INFOSYS, TCS, TECHMAHINDRA and WIPRO such as:
Yt (HCL) = 9070.759 + 0.0079ϕ1Yt-1 - 0.0961ϕ2Yt-2 + Ɛt
Yt(INFOSYS) = 25742157 + 0.9935ϕ1Yt-1 + Ɛt
Yt(TCS) = 146514.3 + 0.6438ϕ1Yt-1 - 0.8654ϕ2Yt-2 + Ɛt + 0.6418θ1Ɛt-1 -0.8156θ2Ɛt-2
Yt(TECHMAHINDRA) = 49287.12 - 0.0145ϕ1Yt-1 - 0.9365ϕ2Yt-2 + Ɛt - 0.0464θ1Ɛt-1 - 0.9292θ2Ɛt-2
Yt (WIPRO) = 6189936.0 + 0.9951ϕ1Yt-1 + Ɛt + 0.0402θ1Ɛt-1
where, Ɛt = Yt - Yt
^
(i.e., the difference between the actual value(Yt) of the series and the
forecasted value(Yt
^
)), ϕi and θj are the coefficients of p and q which are integers that are
often referred to as autoregressive and moving average parameters, respectively.
5. CONCLUSION
This paper presents for stock price prediction extensive process of building is an ARIMA
model. Based on historical data Forecasting with ARIMA provides a prediction, in which data
has been applied by first order difference to remove random walk pattern problems. The
experimental results on short-term basis are obtained with the best ARIMA model to predict
stock prices satisfactory. In stock market this could guide investors to make profitable
investment decisions. With the results obtained, the ARIMA models with emerging
forecasting techniques can compete reasonably well in short-term prediction. From the
analysis the different investors can choose companies according to their returns.
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