Presented by Belynda Petrie at the International Forum on Water and Food (IFWF), South Africa, 14-17 November 2011. The International Forum on Water and Food (IFWF) is the premier gathering of water and food scientists working on improving water management for agricultural production in developing countries. The CGIAR Challenge Program for Water and Food (CPWF) represents one of the most comprehensive investments in the world on water, food and environment research.The Forum explores how the CPWF research-for-development (R4D) approach can address water and food challenges through a combination of process, institutional and technical innovations.

1. Climate Change:!
Global State of Play &
Climate Finance vis-à-vis
Regional & Local Challenges!
Belynda Petrie, 12 November 2011

2. Outline!
• State of Play: COP 17"
– Political realities"
– Challenges for Durban"
– Outcome filters"
– Ambition"
– Long term Cooperative Action "
– Mitigation/MRV"
– Adaptation"
– Finance"
• Climate Finance"
"
• Regional and basin Risk & Vulnerability to CC"
"

3. “We go to Durban with no illusion at all that it will be a
walk in the park. On the contrary, we are fully aware that
in some areas the national interest of Parties will make
consensus a challenge.”
President Jacob Zuma, 31 October 2011

4. Political Realities!
Developed Countries!
• Japan, Canada, Russia, Australia: no Kyoto 2CP, emission
pledges in single agreement under Convention, move what works
from KP to Convention;
• USA:
symmetry with emerging developing country economies; no
legally binding agreement under Convention;
• EU, Environmental Integrity Group:
preference for a single legal
agreement, possible 2CP if “wider agreement” to a transitional
arrangement with conditions, namely: LULUCF rules, surplus
AAU’s, markets, and a time frame for concluding a single
( merging the tracks) legally binding agreement (LBI) in the
future, with all major emitters;
• EIT’s, Turkey: access to finance, technology & capacity building
support;

5. Political Realities!
Developing Countries!
• China, India: no new (or legal) obligations for them (without USA or
Kyoto 2CP or equity)
• SIDS, LDC, Africa: increase ambition, 2 track legal on all major
emitters & balanced treatment of adaptation, resolution on
finance package, keeping well below 2 degrees;
• BASIC: 2CP with comparability for the US under the Convention,
CBDR, equity, comprehensive, ambitious and fair outcome;
• Bolivia & ALBA: increase ambition, mother earth rights ; 2CP; no
markets;
• OPEC: adequate treatment of “response measures” under both tracks.

6. Durban’s Challenge!
• Range: 35-40 decisions requiring action at Durban: Not all
are priorities/deal breakers
• Balance between Bali and Cancun: Operationalisation of
institutions and governance, while resolving outstanding
issues and not just being a organistional Conference.
• Balance between the 2 tracks: Resolving and making
progress on the 2CP, while addressing the future legal form
of the outcome under the LCA/Convention (process/
substance);
• Balance within each track:!
– Kyoto: sequencing issue; resolution of “targets then
rules” or “rules then targets;”
– Convention: ensure balanced progress on all issues,
technical progress on agreed issues & political progress
on unfinished business.

7. Durban Outcome Filters!
• Does it address the emissions gaps?
• Does it address the finance/means of
implementation gap?
• Does it influence the outcome of the 2CP?
• Is it immediate, is there a timeframe/process?
• What is the level of detail required?
• How does it relate to the future Legally Binding
Instrument (LBI)?
• Is it a red-line for Africa?
• How does it relate to the overall & other packages?
• Who are the key players?

8. Ambition !
• Process for clarification of pledges and scaling up
ambition. Process to ratchet up (not down)
commitments at any time;
• Global temperature goals, linked to global means
of implementation goals; (emissions and finance
gaps);
• Scope and modalities of the Review, including
gap analysis;
• Future of the KP 2CP;
• Mandate for legally binding instrument by
2014/15 on LCA track with legally binding
commitments in line with the science.

9. State of Play -LCA!
• MRV: 5 Non papers/2 Co-facilitators texts
• Shared Vision: 1 Facilitator Non paper
• REDD: 1 Facilitator Non paper
• Adaptation: 1 draft Decision text
• Finance: 2 Co-facilitators consolidated texts
• Sectoral Approaches: Facilitators Note
• Technology: 1 draft Decision text
• Markets: Compilation text
• Response Measures: Facilitator’s Note
• Review: Non paper

10. Mitigation /MRV!
• Guidelines and process for biennial reports;
• Revised National Communications;
• International Assessment and Review (IAR)
and Annex I accounting;
• International Consultation and Review (ICR);
• Operationalise the Registry;
• MRV of support;
• Common Reporting Framework (CRF)

11. Adaptation!
Direct Package!
• Adaptation Committee: Operationalise,
governance (elections) and institutional linkages
within adaptation issues (Framework, NWP, L&D)
• Adaptation Framework: How to advance work
on footnoted thematic areas and avoid issue
fragmentation;
• National Adaptation Plans: Agreement of
process, scope and support.
Linked Package!
• Finance/GCF (numbers and institutions/process)

12. Finance!
Direct Package!
• Operationalisation of the Green Climate Fund (COP)
• Long-term sources and scale of finance
• Operationalisation of the Standing Committee on Finance
• Review of the Adaptation Fund (SBI)
Linked Package!
• Mitigation by developing countries: MRV
• REDD (GCF window)
• Links with the Technology Mechanism and Adaptation
Committee
• Registry
• Common Reporting Framework/MRV of support
• Sectoral Approaches: International transport levy
• Markets: link to LCA and KP discussions

13. Green Climate Fund!
• Top down or bottom up process
• What/how should nations/sub-regions
define country ownership?
• Work on national level processes, direct
accesss modalities
• Work on Board mechanism for stakeholder
engagement and Board Observers
• African Green Fund @ AfDB

14. Green Climate Fund!
• Complementarity & Coherence discussion
• Scale discussions
• Location discussions
• Programmatic discussions
• Allocations and nature of support (loans/
grants/leverage)
• Safeguards and fudiciary standards

15. Way Forward!
• Roads to Busan and Durban do not
intersect;
• Outcome will remain as distinct processes;
• Reclaim space & ownership of climate/aid/
finance discussion;
• Engage with the AGF report and follow-up
process under G20;
• What scope for domestic resource
mobilisation?

16. !
What is Climate Finance?! Outline
!
Aims to redress the climate change problem in non-culpable regions &
vulnerable countries
Based on attempts to quantify the extent of the problem- response cost vs
BAU
Intention that it is additional to ODA
US$100 billion/year by 2020– sources: public & private, bilateral &
multilateral, alternative sources of finance (AGF: mix of new public
sources, a scaling-up of existing public sources and increased private
flows); and 30bn ‘fast start’ finance 2010-2012
Balanced allocation between mitigation and adaptation
Multiplicity of funds

17. Forest
Congo
Basin
Global
Carbon
Forest
Fund
Energy
Partnership
Efficiency
Facility
and
RE
Fund
Strategic
Priority
on
Adapta:on
(pilot
&
demo
projects
for
Pilot
Scaled
up
RE
Forest
scaling)
50m
USD;
22
Programme
Programme
Investment
projects,
fully
disbursed
for
Climate
for
low
Programme
Resilience
income
countries
Designated investment resource

18. Global Environment
Facility (GEF) Trust Fund
– CC Focal Area !
Objectives Help developing countries contribute to the overall
objectives of the UNFCCC. Both mitigation and
adaptation.
Activities Renewable energy; EE; sustainable transport;
Adaptation – initial studies, vulnerability
assessments and pilot projects (under SPA).
Eligibility Must conform to eligibility criteria set by COP; must
be eligible to borrow from the WB.
Funding US$3 billion disbursed to date, mainly mitigation.
SPA has spent $50m on 22 projects – predominantly
capacity building in vulnerable areas.

19. Global Environment Facility :
!
Least Developed Countries Fund
(LDCF) !
Objectives" Addresses most urgent and immediate needs of countries
whose economic and geophysical characteristics make them
especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change.
Activities" Focus on NAPAs:
1. Preparation – identify priority needs and activities
2. Implementation – design, develop, implement projects
Eligibility" All LDCs
Funding" 31 contributing countries; $324 million pledged; $ 177m on
47 projects. Co financing mobilised: $550m.

20. LDCF Project Distribution!

21. Global Environment Facility:
!
Special Climate Change Fund
(SCCF) !
"
Implement long & short term adaptation measures-increase
" resilience of national development sectors. Catalyst to leverage
finance from other sources. Supports adaptation and technology
transfer in all developing country parties to the UNFCCC.
Activities" Wide range including WRM; land management; agriculture;
health; infrastructure; ecosystems; integrated coastal zone
management. Generally capacity building within sectors,
implementation of measures.
Eligibility" All non-Annex 1 countries, emphasis on most vulnerable. Focus is
on additional costs imposed by CC.
Funding" $180 million pledged; 31 projects: $177M
Co-financing mobilised: $840m; 14 contributing countries

22. SCCF Distribution!

23. World Bank Climate Investment
Funds: Pilot
Programme for
Climate Resilience (PPCR) !
Mozambique, Niger
African pilot countries: Zambia,
– USD 40-60m (including preparation) per country.
– Stage 1 develops a Strategic Program for Climate
Resilience
– Stage 2 implements the SPCR
– Technical assistance to integrate climate
resilience into National Development Plans
– Scaling up public/private sector investments in NDPs
that address climate resilience

24. Adapta:on
Fund
Adaptation Fund !
Established by the Kyoto Protocol (KP) under the UNFCCC to finance
concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing
countries. Financed with 2% of the Certified Emission Reduction (CERs)
issued for projects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other.
• USD 193m (65% CER proceeds, 35% donor contributions)
• Scale to USD 300-415 million; mid range estimate is USD 356m
funded adaptation projects by end of 2012.
• Structure and criteria necessitates further capacity building:
• Strong evidence base required for proposals
• Managed by the GEF – with new structure proposed at Copenhagen
• Under negotiation for over 8 years – but operational

25. Accessing the Climate Funds
Outline
!
Fund Criteria:!
• General climate change knowledge and
integration to policy and with development Capacity
plans
should
be
• Project development and management
built
in
local
• Application procedures
ins:tu:ons
• Implementing entities enable direct access
• Regional and national implementing agencies Address
issue
entities & multilaterals: the water sector has
opportunity to organise coherent regional of
domes:c
institutional arrangements – direct access
• Strengthening of the evidence base resource
• Strengthened capacity to develop competitive alloca:on
funding proposals

26. Regional challenges: the adaptation
imperative!
IPCC,
2007

27. Regional challenges: the adaptation
imperative!
Number and percentage of category 4 & 5 cyclones in the
South Indian Ocean over the last 30+ years
(Source: Webster et al. 2005)
1975-1989 1990-2004
Number % Number %
23 18 50 34

28. Key Message ..... !!
Longer Climate More
duration change frequent
signals!
dry spells and intense
(droughts) extreme
rainfalls
Longer duration heat-waves

29. Spatial Assessment!
• Southern Africa – shared but widely
divergent vulnerabilities
– Climate systems
– Natural resources and ecosystems
– Farming and other land-use system
– Social systems, economic strengths, weaknesses
• Adaptation planning must be spatially
explicit

30. Spatial anlysis & vulnerability!
Exposure
Vulnerability
Adap:ve
capacity
Sensi:vity
Poten:al
impact
2
analyses
2008
2050

31. Vulnerability = exposure x sensitivity!
Exposure
• Rainfall
variaGon
X
Sensi:vity
X
• %
land
under
irrigaGon
• Cyclone
risk
• Human
use
of
net
primary
• Flood
risk
producGvity
• Standardised
precip
index
• Crowding
of
agric.
Land
• Fire
frequency
• Length
of
growing
period
• AddiGonal
popn.
density
• Early
soil
moisture
• GCM
precip
&
temp
• Own
food
producGon
sys.
• Max
temp
change
• Dietary
diversity
• Loss
of
cropland
• Water
stress
• Sea-­‐level
rise

32. Spatial Impact
Analysis – !
!
current
conditions!

33. Spatial Impact
Analysis – !
!
2050!
!

36. A scenario-based apporach!
Climate Futures!
Moderately wetting Significantly drying
• 6% to 8% growth • 6% to 8% growth
Uneven
Integrated
• 0% to 10% increased • 0% to 15%
rainfall decreased rainfall
Development
Futures!
• 3% to 5% growth • 3% to 5% growth
• 0% to 10% increased • 0% to 15%
rainfall decreased rainfall

37. CC!

38. Climate Change in the Limpopo !
• Geophysical location = highly variable climate, prone to drought;
• High rainfall variability & temperatures = low rainfall conversion to
runoff;
• Core area of atmospheric heating thus agriculture difficult (needs to be
supported by irrigation);
• Exposed to cyclones in the southern Mozambique channel;
• Population growth continues to be rapid;
• Much of the rural population lives in extended villages, with poor levels of
sanitation and supporting infrastructure;
• Mine exploration and mining activities are increasing rapidly – platinum
(on the Eastern and Western limbs of the Bushveld Igneous Complex
(BIC), coal measures are increasingly being exploited in the western
portion of the Limpopo Basin;
• Development of coal resources will continue west into Botswana and
westwards for decades;

39. Climate Change in the Limpopo !
• Water pollution emanating from coal mining in Mpumulanga, urban and
industrial pollutants from Gauteng have substantially degraded the
quality of the water resource, effectively reducing the water available for
other uses;
• Many rural water supplies fail water quality tests with severe impacts on
rural health, already challenged by poverty.
• Water is the resource limiting growth in the Basin – even
mining development is contrained;
• Irrigation uptake in the province is substantial;
• Several sub-basins are closed (there is no more water to allocate) to
increased allocation
• Groundwater is over-exploited, more so than anywhere else in South
Africa. Consequence: groundwater levels are declining faster than
anywhere else.

40. Transboundary & Futures issues!
• Because
the
Limpopo
Province
is
bounded
by
three
other
sovereign
states,
the
Province
has
more
than
its
fair
share
of
transboundary
tensions
over
shared
water
resources.
• Agreements
over
the
management
of
water
as
part
of
a
climate
change
strategy
will
have
to
take
these
issues
into
account.
• Important to examine the impacts of future
climate changes in the context development
futures
– Economic development controls demand for resources and
influences vulnerability

41. Beyond Durban?
"
Global:! Local/Domestic:!
• Influence "
• Evidence
• Improved agricultural
practices
Regional:!
• Equity
• Cooperation
• Policy
• Equity • Institutional
• Policy (needs evidence arrangements incl for
base) direct access
• Institutional • Domestic allocation of
arrangements incl for resource
direct access