Maria Cordeiro presented on methods for estimating the impact of transport interventions. She outlined opportunities for reducing emissions through integrated approaches like transit-oriented development and cleaner modes. Cordeiro discussed a range of methodologies for impact estimations and provided the example of a bottom-up approach used to estimate an 88% reduction in CO2 emissions and 90% reduction in criteria pollutants from a BRT system in Queretaro, Mexico. She concluded that a bottom-up approach is needed to fully account for impacts, data availability is a major challenge, and most emissions reductions in Queretaro came from optimizing transit services.

1. TRB 87 th Annual Meeting Washington DC, January 2008 Maria Cordeiro Environment Projects Manager The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport How to Measure the Impact of Transport Interventions

4. Demand for impact estimations Carbon Market Reproducibility, Verifiability, Engagement to reduce project risks Ball Park, Low Cost Water tight Other impacts Conservativeness Philanthropic Orgs. Intergovernmental Orgs. Multilateral Banks Government with non-biding targets Government with biding targets Corporations and individuals

5. SUPPLY MANAGEMENT PRICING DEMAND MANAGEMENT LAND USE NETWORK STRUCTURE TRAFFIC CONTROL INFORMATION SOCIO- ECON-DEMO DISTRIBU- TIONS INPUTS POLICY LAYER FLEET DISTRI- BUTIONS INPUTS EMISSION FACTORS INPUTS ENERGY, AIR QUALITY MAN. Source: Professor Hani Mahmassani

7. Examples from the field Hanoi Bogot á M é xico City Quer é taro

8. BRT in Quer é taro, Mexico

9. Bottom-up Approach INE SENES Inventario ZMVM Retrofit CM Componente 3 CM Querétaro Data sources Sum of emissions per vehicle model and fuel type Baseline – official records Post project – transport plan Emission factors x Distance traveled x Number of vehicles = Emissions

10. CO 2 Emissions – entire fleet 88% reduction in CO 2 emissions 0 Hybrid Parallel D15ppm, DPF Allison, EPA2004 7 Hybrid Serie, D15 ppm Eletrabus, EUROII 6 CNG FAW, EPA2004 5 Diesel, 15ppm S MB 11, EPA98 4 Diesel, 50ppm S DPF RTP 3 MB Torino, EPA98 3 Diesel, 50ppm S Scania, EURO III 2 Diesel, 350 ppm Diesel, 350ppm S Scania (MB), EURO III 1 Other Trunk Fuel and emission control techs Vehicle technology in trunk route

11. Criteria Pollutant Emissions – entire fleet Reduction of emissions by approximately 90% Hybrid Parallel D15ppm, DPF Allison, EPA2004 7 Hybrid Serie, D15 ppm Eletrabus, EUROII 6 CNG FAW, EPA2004 5 Diesel, 15ppm MB 11, EPA98 4 Diesel, 50ppm S DPF RTP 3 MB Torino, EPA98 3 Diesel, 50ppm S Scania, EURO III 2 Diesel, 350 ppm Diesel, 350ppm S Scania (MB), EURO III 1 Other Trunk Fuel and emission control techs Vehicle technology in trunk route

13. Thank you ! http://embarq.wri.org/ Maria Cordeiro [email_address]