This document summarizes a study on estimating habitat threats for four tiger subspecies: Bengal, Indochinese, Malayan, and Sumatran tigers. The study used high-resolution forest clearing data from 74 tiger habitat areas across 10 countries to investigate the determinants of forest clearing, including expected revenue from cleared land, distance to markets, infrastructure, and environmental factors. The analysis found that forest clearing is significantly related to past clearing and increases land opportunity costs and accessibility, and is sensitive to expected commodity prices and exchange rates. However, the responsiveness varies across countries, with Bengal tiger habitats less sensitive than Sumatran and Malayan habitats. The findings provide guidance on challenges to offset incentives for forest clearing to conserve tiger

1. Vyāghra is the Sanskrit word for Tiger

2. Vyāghranomics in Space and Time:
Estimating Habitat Threats for Bengal, Indochinese,
Malayan and Sumatran Tigers
Susmita Dasgupta, Dan Hammer, Robin Kraft, David Wheeler
The World Bank
2012

3. Endangered Tigers
 The wild tiger population of tropical Asia plummeted in the last century,
from about 100,000 to 3,500.
 Bali, Javan and South China subspecies are believed to be extinct in the wild.
 An estimated 2,380 Bengal tigers survive, along with 340 Indochinese, 500
Malayan and 325 Sumatran tigers.

4. Research Focus
This research focuses
on forest habitat loss,
but we recognize that
poaching and illegal
trade in tiger parts can
devastate remaining
tiger populations,
even when forest
habitat is intact.

5. Tiger Habitats
Tiger Subspecies Landscapes
Tiger habitats withered significantly
over time.
Remaining habitat forms a scattered
arc from southwest India to northwest
Indonesia, much of it in upland areas.
Long term survival of the tiger is
dependent on conservation of tiger
habitats.
Habitat conservation is primarily a development problem. Success of conservation
initiatives will require program designs tailored to the economic dynamics of forest
clearing in tropical forest countries.

6. Economic Dynamics of Forest Habitat Loss
This research links forest habitat
loss and forest clearing to
profitability calculations that are
affected by market expectations,
environmental conditions
evolving patterns of settlement,
economic activity, infrastructure
provision and regulatory activity -
following previous empirical
research on conversion of
forested land.

7. Data
 High-resolution monthly data on forest
clearing for 74 tiger habitat areas in 10
countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan,
Cambodia, India, Indonesian Sumatra,
Lao PDR, Peninsular Malaysia,
Myanmar, Nepal, Thailand and Vietnam
were used to investigate habitat
threats for Bengal, Indochinese,
Malayan and Sumatran tigers.
 Forest clearing information was from
FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action),
a satellite-based system.

8. Estimation
 Forest clearing data was gridded to 100 km2
– typical area to support survival and
breeding of tigers for econometric analysis
 Determinants of forest clearing included
Cost of Land, Expected Revenue from
Production on Cleared Land, Distance from
Markets, Quality of Transport
Infrastructure, Cost of Capital, Agricultural
Input Price, Population Density,
Topography, Precipitation, Soil Quality and
Forest Protection Measures
 For each country, the model was estimated
using new spatial panel estimation
methods that allow for temporal and
spatial autocorrelation.

9. Econometric Findings
 Over time, the spread of clearing into new or contiguous areas is reducing the
number of 100 km2 forest blocks that can support breeding tigers.
 Current clearing activity is significantly related to past forest clearing in 2000-
2005.
 Clearing increases with increase in the opportunity cost of forested land.
 Clearing is greater in areas that are relatively remote from major transport
links.
 Over time, clearing is positively related to the expected prices of forest
products and expected future exchange rates (denominated in local
currencies/dollar).
 Clearing is negatively related to rainfall, real interest rate, and to the
elevation of the terrain.
 After controlling for all these, significant unexplained drivers remain.

10. Difference across Countries
 A negative trend in forest clearing is more pronounced in Bangladesh, India, Nepal
- Bengal tiger countries, and less pronounced in Indonesian Sumatra, Cambodia
and Vietnam.
 Trend clearing is positive and highly significant in Peninsular Malaysia, Myanmar
and Lao PDR.
 In the export-oriented economies of Indonesia and Malaysia, the habitat countries
of Sumatran and Malayan tigers, forest clearing is highly sensitive to changes in
exchange rates, real interest rates and the prices of forest products.
 In contrast, sensitivity to these variables is lower in India, Bangladesh and Nepal --
habitat countries of the Bengal tiger.
 Responsiveness to agricultural product prices varies across fivefold across
countries.
 Protected Areas have no measured effects in the Sumatran and Malayan habitat
countries in general.
 Protected Areas have significant effects in the habitat countries of Bengal tigers.

11. Critical Message
 Changes in world forest product markets and national financial policies
have significant, measurable effects on tropical forest clearing, but with
variable time lags and differing degrees of responsiveness across
countries.
 Measuring these effects and pinpointing areas at high risk can provide
valuable guidance for policymakers, conservation managers, and donor
institutions about the challenges to be overcome in offsetting incentives
for forest clearing, and about potential responses tailored to the
circumstances of different countries and habitat areas.

12. Thank You
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