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Dilek Aykut
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
Europe & Central Asia
Regional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Europe and Central Asia's regional
growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from
5.6 percent in 2011.
Europe and Central Asia's regional
growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from
5.6 percent in 2011.
Europe and Central Asia's regional
growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from
5.6 percent in 2011.
Source: World Bank, Haver.
Industrial production data suggest a
rebound in economic activity in the region
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
Kazakhstan
Russia
Serbia
Turkey
Ukraine
Europe & Central Asia
IP Volume growth 3m/3m saar
Source: World Bank, Haver.
Industrial production data suggest a
rebound in economic activity in the region
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
Kazakhstan
Russia
Serbia
Turkey
Ukraine
Europe & Central Asia
IP Volume growth 3m/3m saar
Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar
Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar
Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar
Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar
Source: World Bank, Haver.
Exports from the region have slowed down
despite the improved import demand
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01
ECA exports
Developing Countries Imports
High-income Imports
High Income Europe Imports
Export value growth 3m/3m saar
Region’s access to international debt
markets has improved significantly
12
Source: World Bank; Dealogic.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13
Bank l endi ng
Bond
Equi t y i ssuance
$ billion
Region’s access to international debt
markets has improved significantly
13
Source: World Bank; Dealogic.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13
Bank l endi ng
Bond
Equi t y i ssuance
$ billion
Region’s access to international debt
markets has improved significantly
14
Source: World Bank; Dealogic.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13
Bank l endi ng
Bond
Equi t y i ssuance
$ billion
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2005 2010
Developing Europe grows at potential
rate but output gap remains
15
Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)
Output Gap
GDP growth
Potential Output growth
Source: World Bank.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2005 2010
Developing Europe grows at potential
rate but output gap remains
16
Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)
Output Gap
GDP growth
Potential Output growth
Source: World Bank.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Prospects: rebound with increasing
differentiation among countries
17
Annual GDP growth (%)
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Source: World Bank.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Prospects: rebound with increasing
differentiation among countries
18
Annual GDP growth (%)
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Source: World Bank.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Prospects: rebound with increasing
differentiation among countries
19
Annual GDP growth (%)
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Source: World Bank.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Prospects: rebound with increasing
differentiation among countries
20
Annual GDP growth (%)
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Source: World Bank.
21
Dilek Aykut
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
Europe & Central Asia
Regional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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Europe and Central Asia Regional Outlook

  • 1. 1 Dilek Aykut World Bank June 2013 Global Economic Prospects Europe & Central Asia Regional Outlook http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  • 2. Europe and Central Asia's regional growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from 5.6 percent in 2011.
  • 3. Europe and Central Asia's regional growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from 5.6 percent in 2011.
  • 4. Europe and Central Asia's regional growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from 5.6 percent in 2011.
  • 5. Source: World Bank, Haver. Industrial production data suggest a rebound in economic activity in the region -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01 Kazakhstan Russia Serbia Turkey Ukraine Europe & Central Asia IP Volume growth 3m/3m saar
  • 6. Source: World Bank, Haver. Industrial production data suggest a rebound in economic activity in the region -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01 Kazakhstan Russia Serbia Turkey Ukraine Europe & Central Asia IP Volume growth 3m/3m saar
  • 7. Source: World Bank, Haver. Exports from the region have slowed down despite the improved import demand -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01 ECA exports Developing Countries Imports High-income Imports High Income Europe Imports Export value growth 3m/3m saar
  • 8. Source: World Bank, Haver. Exports from the region have slowed down despite the improved import demand -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01 ECA exports Developing Countries Imports High-income Imports High Income Europe Imports Export value growth 3m/3m saar
  • 9. Source: World Bank, Haver. Exports from the region have slowed down despite the improved import demand -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01 ECA exports Developing Countries Imports High-income Imports High Income Europe Imports Export value growth 3m/3m saar
  • 10. Source: World Bank, Haver. Exports from the region have slowed down despite the improved import demand -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01 ECA exports Developing Countries Imports High-income Imports High Income Europe Imports Export value growth 3m/3m saar
  • 11. Source: World Bank, Haver. Exports from the region have slowed down despite the improved import demand -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01 ECA exports Developing Countries Imports High-income Imports High Income Europe Imports Export value growth 3m/3m saar
  • 12. Region’s access to international debt markets has improved significantly 12 Source: World Bank; Dealogic. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13 Bank l endi ng Bond Equi t y i ssuance $ billion
  • 13. Region’s access to international debt markets has improved significantly 13 Source: World Bank; Dealogic. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13 Bank l endi ng Bond Equi t y i ssuance $ billion
  • 14. Region’s access to international debt markets has improved significantly 14 Source: World Bank; Dealogic. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13 Bank l endi ng Bond Equi t y i ssuance $ billion
  • 15. -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2005 2010 Developing Europe grows at potential rate but output gap remains 15 Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA) Output Gap GDP growth Potential Output growth Source: World Bank.
  • 16. -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2005 2010 Developing Europe grows at potential rate but output gap remains 16 Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA) Output Gap GDP growth Potential Output growth Source: World Bank.
  • 17. -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Prospects: rebound with increasing differentiation among countries 17 Annual GDP growth (%) Central and Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Source: World Bank.
  • 18. -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Prospects: rebound with increasing differentiation among countries 18 Annual GDP growth (%) Central and Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Source: World Bank.
  • 19. -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Prospects: rebound with increasing differentiation among countries 19 Annual GDP growth (%) Central and Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Source: World Bank.
  • 20. -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Prospects: rebound with increasing differentiation among countries 20 Annual GDP growth (%) Central and Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Source: World Bank.
  • 21. 21 Dilek Aykut World Bank June 2013 Global Economic Prospects Europe & Central Asia Regional Outlook http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

Editor's Notes

  1. GEP 2010 Presentation
  2. GEP 2010 Presentation