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Latin America & Caribbean Regional Outlook June 2013
Growth in the Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to increase slightly to 3.3% in 2013, up from 3.0% in 2012, with marginal acceleration forecasted through 2015. Economic performance has remained subdued despite supportive macroeconomic policies, and there are significant risks associated with fluctuations in global commodity prices. A decline in commodity prices could notably impact GDP, particularly for exporters in the region.
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Latin America & Caribbean Regional Outlook June 2013
- 1. 1 Cristina Savescu World Bank June2013 Global Economic Prospects Latin America & the Caribbean Regional Outlook http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
- 2. Growth in theLatin America and the Caribbean region is expected to firm only marginally this year to 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent in 2012. 2
- 3. Growth in theLatin America and the Caribbean region is expected to firm only marginally this year to 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent in 2012. 3
- 4. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 Latin America and the Caribbean 4 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 5. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 Latin America and the Caribbean 5 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. 5.3% Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 6. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 Latin America and the Caribbean 6 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. 5.3% Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 7. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 South America 7 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. Latin America and the Caribbean Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 8. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 South America 8 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. Latin America and the Caribbean Developing Central and North America Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015
- 9. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003-2007 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 South America Growth in the region will accelerate only marginally through 2015 9 GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B. Latin America and the Caribbean The Caribbean Developing Central and North America
- 10. Growth has remainedsubdued despite accommodative macro policies.
- 11. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 30-Aug-08 30-Aug-09 30-Aug-1030-Aug-11 30-Aug-12 Mexico Colombia Chile Peru Monetary policies remain accommodative short-term policy interest rates, percent Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam.
- 12. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 30-Aug-08 30-Aug-09 30-Aug-1030-Aug-11 30-Aug-12 Mexico Colombia Chile Peru Monetary policies remain accommodative short-term policy interest rates, percent Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam. Brazil
- 13. Argentina Antigua and Barbuda Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominica DominicanRep. Ecuador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Haiti Jamaica St. Lucia Mexico Nicaragua Panama Peru El Salvador Suriname Uruguay St. Vincent and Grenadines Venezuela -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage points Size of output gap (2012) Gap closing from below Overheating Gap closing from aboveCrashing
- 14. Argentina Antigua and Barbuda Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominica DominicanRep. Ecuador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Haiti Jamaica St. Lucia Mexico Nicaragua Panama Peru El Salvador Suriname Uruguay St. Vincent and Grenadines Venezuela -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage points Size of output gap (2012) Gap closing from below Overheating Gap closing from aboveCrashing
- 15. Argentina Antigua and Barbuda Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominica DominicanRep. Ecuador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Haiti Jamaica St. Lucia Mexico Nicaragua Panama Peru El Salvador Suriname Uruguay St. Vincent and Grenadines Venezuela -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage points Size of output gap (2012) Gap closing from below Overheating Gap closing from aboveCrashing
- 16. Argentina Antigua and Barbuda Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile ColombiaCosta Rica Dominica DominicanRep. Ecuador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Haiti Jamaica St. Lucia Mexico Nicaragua Panama Peru El Salvador Suriname Uruguay St. Vincent and Grenadines Venezuela -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 Speed of gap closure in 2013, percentage points Size of output gap (2012) Gap closing from below Overheating Gap closing from aboveCrashing
- 17. Developments in thefirst quarter of 2013 underscore some of the downside risks to the outlook
- 18. -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil ChileColombia Costa Rica Mexico Peru Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam. A relatively weak start of the year in Latin America and Caribbean GDP, q/q per cent annual i zed change, sa
- 19. -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil ChileColombia Costa Rica Mexico Peru Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Sour ces: Wor l d Bank; Dat ast r eam. A relatively weak start of the year in Latin America and Caribbean GDP, q/q per cent annual i zed change, sa
- 20. Large fluctuations ofexport prices represent a major risk to outlook for commodity exporters.
- 21. Commodity exporters atrisk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 22. Commodity exporters atrisk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 23. Commodity exporters atrisk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 24. Commodity exporters atrisk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 0 Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean metal exporters Metals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 25. Commodity exporters atrisk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 0 Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean metal exporters Metals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 26. Commodity exporters atrisk if commodity prices decline more quickly -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Latin America & Caribbean Oil exporters Oil importers Oil prices decline to $80 by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 0 Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean metal exporters Metals prices decline by 20% by mid 2014 Impact, % of GDP Source: World Bank.
- 27. 27 Cristina Savescu World Bank June2013 Global Economic Prospects Latin America & the Caribbean Regional Outlook http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Editor's Notes
- #2 GEP 2010 Presentation
- #3 The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- #4 The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- #5 The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- #6 The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- #7 The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- #8 The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- #9 The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- #10 The marked slowdown in South America reflects in part supply-side constraints but also weaker domestic and external demand
- #28 GEP 2010 Presentation