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![• Control quantization
• Control interaction (crosses)
• O(millions) of sparse parameters
• O(tens) active any timeGlass box model
Lat :37.7841593
Long :-122.4031865
Price : 500
(37.7,-122.4) AND Price in [500, 550]
Good location High price!](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/hectoryeesparksummit2015-150616002420-lva1-app6892/75/Appraiser-How-Airbnb-Generates-Complex-Models-in-Spark-for-Demand-Prediction-20-2048.jpg)
![Feature transforms
Control feature engineering
quantize_listing_location {
transform : multiscale_grid_quantize
field1: "LOC"
buckets : [ 0.1, 0.01 ]
value1 : "Latitude"
value2 : "Longitude"
output : "QLOC"
}
!
quantize_price {
transform : multiscale_quantize
field1: "PRICE"
buckets : [ 10.0, 100.0 ]
value1 : "$"
output : “QPRICE" }
Price_X_Location {
transform : cross
field1 : "QPRICE"
field2 : "QLOC"
output : “PRICE_AND_LOCATION”
}
!
combined_transform {
transform : list
transforms : [
quantize_listing_location,
quantize_price,
Price_X_Location ]
}](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/hectoryeesparksummit2015-150616002420-lva1-app6892/75/Appraiser-How-Airbnb-Generates-Complex-Models-in-Spark-for-Demand-Prediction-21-2048.jpg)
Uploaded byYang Li Hector Yee
Appraiser : How Airbnb Generates Complex Models in Spark for Demand Prediction
The document discusses Hector Yee's work on Airbnb's complex demand prediction models using machine learning and Spark, highlighting the challenges of pricing in a two-sided marketplace. It covers various modeling techniques, including the use of features related to demand, seasonality, listing type, and location to predict booking probabilities. Additionally, the document emphasizes the need for model interpretability and the trade-offs associated with different modeling approaches.
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Appraiser : How Airbnb Generates Complex Models in Spark for Demand Prediction
- 1. hector.yee@airbnb.com @eigenhector Appraiser : HowAirbnb Generates Complex Models in Spark for Demand Prediction
- 2. Google Image Search(4 patents) • Image classification, YH Yee et al, US Patent 8,478,052 • Customizing image search for user attributes, YH Yee, CJ Rosenberg,US Patent 8,782,029 Google Self-driving Car-Perception (1 patent) Youtube Technical Emmy 2014 (4 papers) • Label partitioning for sublinear ranking, J Weston, A Makadia, H Yee, ICML 2013 • Affinity weighted embedding, J Weston, R Weiss, H Yee, ICML 2014 Hector Yee Selected publications 8 Movies&games (Shrek2, Star Wars, C&C etc)
- 3.
- 4. • Goal: Equiphosts with a tool to make better informed pricing decisions to meet their needs • Price tips only Pricing in a Two-Sided Marketplace
- 5. • Modeling • Aerosolve:open-source ML stack Overview
- 6.
- 7. • Modeling goal:Predict the probability of a booking for each price • Scale - O(Million) of derived features - Over 5B training data points. Proportional to (# listings) x (# days) Modeling Approach and Scale
- 8. • Demand (seasonality,events) • Listing location (market, neighborhood, street block) • Listing type and quality What Affects Prices?
- 9.
- 10. Seasonality &Events Demand capturedby multiple features
- 11. Image by DavidMcClure http://dclure.org/essays/neighborhoods-of-san-francisco/ Creative Commons 3.0 Listing Location
- 12. Listing Location Grids /kdtree captures value of locations in San Francisco
- 13. Listing Type&Quality Entire aptor a room Amenities Guest reviews Private room with view of Eiffel Tower Entire home/ houseboat across from Eiffel Tower
- 14.
- 15. Free parking nearSFO Airport? (37.68359375,-122.40234375 model.filter(x => x.featureName.contains(“Free Parking”))
- 16. Sabbia (sand Italian) (20.63671875,-87.06640625) model.filter(x=> x.featureName.contains(“Sabbia”))
- 17. Machine Learning for Humans Interpretability “Is mylisting priced too high?” Black Box ?????? Yes: Low Season Yes: Zero Reviews Glass Boxvs. Answer: Yes
- 18. •Latitude •Longitude •Price ! ! ! Metreon Lat :37.7841593 Long :-122.4031865 Price: 500 Question : Will I get a booking at this price?
- 19. Black box Random forest Q:Will I get a book? Lat :37.7841593 Long :-122.4031865 Price : 500 Latitude > 37.7? Longitude >-143.0 ? Price > 213 ? 1.0 -1.0 • Difficult to interpret • 1000s of trees in a forest • Not clear relationship between variables and target
- 20. • Control quantization •Control interaction (crosses) • O(millions) of sparse parameters • O(tens) active any timeGlass box model Lat :37.7841593 Long :-122.4031865 Price : 500 (37.7,-122.4) AND Price in [500, 550] Good location High price!
- 21. Feature transforms Control featureengineering quantize_listing_location { transform : multiscale_grid_quantize field1: "LOC" buckets : [ 0.1, 0.01 ] value1 : "Latitude" value2 : "Longitude" output : "QLOC" } ! quantize_price { transform : multiscale_quantize field1: "PRICE" buckets : [ 10.0, 100.0 ] value1 : "$" output : “QPRICE" } Price_X_Location { transform : cross field1 : "QPRICE" field2 : "QLOC" output : “PRICE_AND_LOCATION” } ! combined_transform { transform : list transforms : [ quantize_listing_location, quantize_price, Price_X_Location ] }
- 22. • Write trainingdata once • Iterate feature transforms on the fly • Control quantization • Control interaction (crosses) • Debuggable models (graphs + readable) (20.6,-87.0) ^ Sabbia = Good! Benefits of feature transforms
- 23. Weight = Σ Additivesplines
- 24. Price percentile Approximate price percentilein market Adding Priors Encodes human knowledge Fills in gaps with little data Price percentile
- 25. Bézier Cubic With DiracDeltas End points can vary a lot
- 26. Listing quality Dirac +Cubic spline captures effect of reviews
- 27. Debugging Splines When splines gobad and weebly wobbly High capacity models can cheat!
- 28. L1 regularization • Startslearning ID like features • Exact location • Time of creation • Damages Splines ! For Linear model: L1 + L2 + Random Dropout ! For Spline model: L_infinity spline group norm + Change of basis (Bézier Cubic-4 params) + Dropout for spline model Overfitting Dangers of high capacity models
- 29.
- 30. Achitecture Airbnb Frontend (Ruby) ! Appraiserpricing model (Java) ! Aerosolve Machine Learning (Scala)
- 31.
- 32. KD Trees Bodies ofwater kept separate Min Sum P(leaf_i | parent) * n_leaf_i
- 33. Generate Features • RGB,HSV, Edge histograms, Texture histograms Sparsify • Winner Take All Hash (max of random elements) Ranking Loss Image Ranking Human curated vs. organic bookings Ornate Living Rooms vs. Creature Comforts
- 34. ! Demo : Learningto paint http://airbnb.github.io/aerosolve/
- 35.