Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green
Technologies, Conservation International
Sigma Xi talk, Howard Uni...
―Fundamental scales of physics,
expressed in natural units, are remarkably different…widely spaced over 60
orders of magni...
BIOCOMPLEXITY - the complex behavioral, biological, social, chemical, and physical
interactions of living organisms with t...
New England Complex Systems Institute, Visualizing Complex Systems Science, www.necsi.org
Neural networks and synapses Fitness landscapes
Milankovitch cycles
Fractal watersheds
nested networks
swarms migrations
C...
While non-linear
complex systems
pervade existence,
humans have a strong
propensity to think and
act as if life is linear,...
Unprecedented
Challenges of
Historical & Global
Magnitude
More absolute poor than any time
in human history
[alongside more wealth than ever]
Masspoverty
Resource
Wars &
Conflicts
Species
extinction
Species extinction by humans
1000x natural background rate
Climate
wierding
Where we will be by 2100 900ppm
PartsperMillionCO2
Past planetary mass extinctions
triggered by high CO2 ...
Oceans
Acidifying
55 million years since oceans as acidic –
business-as-usual emissions growth
threaten collapse of marine...
human
extinction?
????2100
12 to 16
billion
70,000 years
ago humans
down to 2000
Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences
A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere,
and accumulate o...
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with
the potentially-huge payoffs, small p...
Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The
Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilizat...
Where the world needs to go:
energy-related CO2 emissions per capita
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Coun...
21052005
2 TO 3% Annual Average
Gross World Product
(GWP) 21st Century (~10
to 20x today’s)
2105
$500 trillion GWP
~$50,00...
Averting catastrophes by
Greening the
Global Economy
Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering
GENETICS
INFORMATICS NANOTECH
AUTOROBOTICS
Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing t...
Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions
Tucuruí dam, Brazil
St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sour...
Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with
Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropo...
Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success
Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become
c...
1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous
improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary
bene...
Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm...
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tro...
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tro...
High Quality Multi-Benefit
$4 million to protect the Tayna and
Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in
eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation
area in Per...
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
CCS REDD
Geological storage (CCS) vs
Ecological storage (REDD)
Carbon Mitigation...
U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007
2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions
Tropical Deforestation 2007
13 million hectares burned
7 bi...
1824 Liters per year
(10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year)
4.8 tons CO2 emissions per
year
~$48 to Reduce Emissions from Defore...
In the wake of 14
million hectares of
tropical forests
burned down each
year, some 16
million species
populations go
extin...
 One-quarter all medical drugs
used in developed world from
plants.
 Cortisone and first oral
contraceptives derived fro...
Biomolecules prospected from
different bioresources for
pesticidal, therapeutic and other
agriculturally important
compoun...
Green
Engineering
1. Inherent rather than circumstantial.
2. Prevention rather than treatment.
3. Design for separation.
4. Maximize mass, e...
Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption
becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.
E. Matthews et al., The Weig...
Source: Green Chemistry & Catalysis for the Production of Flavours & Fragrances, Roger A. Sheldon,
Biocatalysis & Organic ...
Source: The Green Screen for Safer Chemicals Version 1.0, Clean Production Action, Jan. 2001
The Green Screen is a benchma...
Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses on
design of products and a production cyc...
Reducing a Product’s Environmental Footprint
Spider diagram is one way to show how a particular product’s environmental
ef...
Ultra-low Carbon
multi-beneficial
Energy Service
Options
To have a reasonable
confidence that
warming would stay
below 2 C, global
emissions must peak
by 2015, reach a
sustained r...
1. Economically affordable
2. Safe
3. Clean
4. Risk is low and manageable
5. Resilient and flexible
6. Ecologically sustai...
A Defensible Green
Energy Criteria Scoring
Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste
power
Geo-
thermal
Nat
gas
Bio-
fuels
...
η
eta
SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation
Universal symbol for Efficiency
The best thing
about low-
hanging...
Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm...
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg s...
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced ...
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg s...
Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commis...
New York
California
USA minus CA & NY
Per Capital
Electricity
Consumption
165 GW
Coal
Power
Plants
Californian’s have
net ...
Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th An...
Now use 1/2 global power
50% efficiency savings achievable
90% cost savings
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
Public library – North Carolina
Heinz Foundation
Green Building, PA
Oberlin College
Ecology Center,
Ohio
ZERO NET ENERGY &...
Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of commercial building electricity.
Daylighting can provide ...
Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oi...
[source: SafeClimate.net]
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
6-pak CFLs Dow-Jones...
source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991
CFL factories displace power plants
The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 milli...
LED
light-
emitting
diodes
Less Coal Power Plants
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines
More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Need for Coal...
Earth receives more solar energy
every 90 minutes than humanity
consumes all year
Source: Doug Balcomb, The Energy Road Ahead, Solar Today, April 2010, www.solartoday.org/
USA Green Energy Services by 2060
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97
year
TeraWattsperyear
Fast phase-out
fossil fuels
...
Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –
1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream
A power source delivered daily and loca...
SUN FUSION PHOTONS
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simp...
90% of America’s current electricity could
be supplied with PV systems built in the
“brown-fields”— the estimated 2+
milli...
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Material
Replaced
Economic
Measure
Be...
Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings an...
Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
MW
Compared to:
Wind power 121,000 MW
Nuclear power 350,000 MW
Hydro power 770,000 MW
Natural Gas power 1 million MW
Coal ...
2069
Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
...
Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,
z...
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
...
1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2
PV NUCLEAR
Billion $ 2008 constant
Civilian Nuclear Power
(1948 – 2009)
vs.
Solar Pho...
Wind?
Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-battery
turbine spacing
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Solar-battery
Mark Z. Jacobson...
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 2MW wind turbines
Platform footprin...
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South
Dakota; Central Great ...
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalt...
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon
and stop soil erosion (hence ge...
Vehicle-to-Grid
Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet
Convergences & Emergences
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage
and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-
scale (one-half of US...
Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary
PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneide...
Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for
Biofuel Production through Algae Systems
Mississippi River Delta
Yangtze Rive...
Small Land footprint
Only Wastewater as Feedstock
Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
CO2
ATS
Biodiesel
Fermenter
(Clostridium butylicum
C. Pasteurianum, etc.)
C6H12O6  C4H9OH + CO2 + …
Biobutanol
Ethanol
Ac...
Algae
butanol
biodiesel
Corn (ethanol)
Soy (biodiesel)
Estimated Biofuel Production
(gallons per acre or ha per year)
1520...
Knowledge
generation
transmission &
distribution
networks
The volume of digital information that exists—500 billion gigabytes--
equals a stack of books stretching to Pluto and back...
The Library of Congress is the largest library in
the world, with nearly 128 million items on
approximately 530 miles of b...
Kevin Kelly, Next 5000 days of the Internet, TED talk, 12-20-08, www.ted.org/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_t...
Social
Collaboration
building a
Shared Vision
Imperative
What Makes This
Possible?
•Digital Technology
• Internet networks
• Web applications
• Smart Phones &
Handhelds
The WIKIPEDIA Collective Intelligence MODEL:
In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees
Catalyzed a value-adding creation n...
Size of a printed version of Wikipedia within 72 months (2001-2007)
Open Source & Global Access by Mobile Phones & Handhel...
How to fast-track greener cities
www.wbdg.org/
Whole
Building
Design
Guide
Passive Solar Cooling
Passive Solar Heating
Natural Ventilation
Solar Daylighting
Web-based Green
Building Advisor
Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck....
Solar smart poly-grids
Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy
provided by solar...
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map
algorithms contin...
Architecture of Participation
Norman L. Johnson, Science of Collective Intelligence: Resources for change, in chapter in Mark Tovey (ed.). 2008. Collect...
Connected
The Universe of
Green Tipping Points
GreenTippingPoints
PHOTRONIC NETWORKS
THANK
YOU!
Michael Totten
Conservation International
mtotten@conservation.org
Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1
incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp...
Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1
incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp...
A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,
Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
SEVERE AIR & WATER POLLUTION, DISLOCATED REFUGEES
Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10
Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10
Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10
Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10
Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10
Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10
Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10
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Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10

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Humanity confronts unprecedented challenges of global and historical magnitude, including climate destabilization, ocean acidification, more absolute poor than any time in human history, and species extinction rate 1000 times the natural background rate. Instead of dealing with each problem separately, there are great gains to be made by looking for common solutions to these inextricably interwoven problems. Green economics offers one such perspective to assessment opportunities.

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Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10

  1. 1. Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green Technologies, Conservation International Sigma Xi talk, Howard University, November 29, 2010 Biocomplexity Decisionmaking Innovative approaches to the inter-connected challenges of Climate destabilization, Mass poverty and Species extinction
  2. 2. ―Fundamental scales of physics, expressed in natural units, are remarkably different…widely spaced over 60 orders of magnitude. Without this kind of hierarchy, complex structures (e.g. living beings) could not exist. Nobody knows why the scales are so apart‖ H0 = expansion rate of the universe ρ vac = energy density of empty space Ry = Rydberg constant of atomic physics Λ QCD = scale governing the strong nuclear force mW = mass of the W boson carrying the weak nuclear force G-1/2 = Planck scale characterizing gravity, constructed from Newton’s constant G Professor Sean Carroll Caltech
  3. 3. BIOCOMPLEXITY - the complex behavioral, biological, social, chemical, and physical interactions of living organisms with their environment. www.nsf.org
  4. 4. New England Complex Systems Institute, Visualizing Complex Systems Science, www.necsi.org
  5. 5. Neural networks and synapses Fitness landscapes Milankovitch cycles Fractal watersheds nested networks swarms migrations Collective intelligence
  6. 6. While non-linear complex systems pervade existence, humans have a strong propensity to think and act as if life is linear, uncertainty is controllable, the future free of surprises, and planning can be compartmentalized into silos. With nearly predictable fat-tail futures.
  7. 7. Unprecedented Challenges of Historical & Global Magnitude
  8. 8. More absolute poor than any time in human history [alongside more wealth than ever] Masspoverty
  9. 9. Resource Wars & Conflicts
  10. 10. Species extinction Species extinction by humans 1000x natural background rate
  11. 11. Climate wierding Where we will be by 2100 900ppm PartsperMillionCO2 Past planetary mass extinctions triggered by high CO2 >550ppm
  12. 12. Oceans Acidifying 55 million years since oceans as acidic – business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL
  13. 13. human extinction? ????2100 12 to 16 billion 70,000 years ago humans down to 2000
  14. 14. Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of tens of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.
  15. 15. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading "rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf. …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment." … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed: Martin Weitzman
  16. 16. Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/ Main difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 Trajectory GtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm Based on 6 Celsius average global temperature rise due to greater climate sensitivity Green Economics negative CO2 by 2050 to achieve <350 ppm
  17. 17. Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008. >$/GDP/cap
  18. 18. 21052005 2 TO 3% Annual Average Gross World Product (GWP) 21st Century (~10 to 20x today’s) 2105 $500 trillion GWP ~$50,000 per cap # in poverty? $50 trillion GWP ~$7,500 per cap 2+ billion in poverty? $1,000 trillion GWP ~$100,000 per cap # in poverty?
  19. 19. Averting catastrophes by Greening the Global Economy
  20. 20. Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
  21. 21. GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering GENETICS INFORMATICS NANOTECH AUTOROBOTICS
  22. 22. Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/ Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3 knowledge relationships of knowledge Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames Natural system Technical system Social system
  23. 23. Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions Tucuruí dam, Brazil St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience 50: 766–75,
  24. 24. Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004 DAM Reservoir Area (km2) Generating Capacity (MW) km2/ MW Emissions: Hydro (MtCO2- eq/yr) Emissions: CC Gas (MtCO2- eq/yr) Emissions Ratio Hydro/Gas Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4 Curuá- Una 72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5 Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58
  25. 25. Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become climate positive and revenue positive Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green Power Ecosystem Protection Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS
  26. 26. 1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water & resources) 2)PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio that deliver triple benefits (climate protection, biodiversity preservation, and promotion of community sustainable development) 3)ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELS Select only verifiable ‘green power/fuels’ that are climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies
  27. 27. Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or about half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels. CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020 Breakdown by abatement type • 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture) • 6 Gt energy efficiency • 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply
  28. 28. IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2. Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year 0 5 10 15 20 25 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use Billion tons CO2 14 million hectares burned each year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year. More emissions than world transport system of cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships US GHG levels Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction
  29. 29. IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2. Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year 0 5 10 15 20 25 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use Billion tons CO2 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year in mitigation services available in poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars annually ; and saving better-off nations billions of dollars. US GHG levels Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive
  30. 30. High Quality Multi-Benefit
  31. 31. $4 million to protect the Tayna and Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation area in Peru. Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of CO2 from being released into the atmosphere. Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity Carbon Standards. Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date
  32. 32. $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 CCS REDD Geological storage (CCS) vs Ecological storage (REDD) Carbon Mitigation Cost U.S. fossil Electricity CO2 mitigation cost annually (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007) ~$100 billion ~3 ¢ per kWh ~$18 billion ~0.5 ¢ per kWh $ per ton CO2 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation (REDD) Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008 0
  33. 33. U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions Tropical Deforestation 2007 13 million hectares burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions $7.50 per ton CO2 1/2 cent per kWh $18 billion/yr REDD trade Poverty reduction Prevent Species loss A win-win-win outcome A win-win-win outcome
  34. 34. 1824 Liters per year (10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year) 4.8 tons CO2 emissions per year ~$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at $10 per tCO2 Adds 7 cents per gallon =
  35. 35. In the wake of 14 million hectares of tropical forests burned down each year, some 16 million species populations go extinct. Species comprising the natural laboratory of biocomplexity with future values yet to be assessed or discovered.
  36. 36.  One-quarter all medical drugs used in developed world from plants.  Cortisone and first oral contraceptives derived from Central American yam species  Pacific yew in western US yielded anti-cancer drug taxol  Vincristine from the Rosy Periwinkle in Madagascar  Drug to prevent blood clotting from snake venom  Active ingredient aspirin synthesized from willow trees. Bioprospecting biological wealth Using bioinformatic tools
  37. 37. Biomolecules prospected from different bioresources for pesticidal, therapeutic and other agriculturally important compounds Bioprospecting biological wealth Using biotechnological tools  Biomolecules for Industrial and Medicinal Use  Novel Genes/Promoters To Address Biotic and Abiotic Stress  Genes for Transcription Factors  Metabolic Engineering Pathways  Nutritional Enhancement  Bioavailability of Elements  Microbial Biodiversity
  38. 38. Green Engineering
  39. 39. 1. Inherent rather than circumstantial. 2. Prevention rather than treatment. 3. Design for separation. 4. Maximize mass, energy, space, and time efficiency. 5. ―Out‐pulled‖ rather than ―input‐pushed‖. 6. View complexity as an investment. 7. Durability rather than immortality. 8. Need rather than excess. 9. Minimize material diversity. 10. Integrate local material and energy flows. 11. Design for commercial ―afterlife‖. 12. Renewable and readily available. Principles of Green Engineering Source: Anastas and Zimmerman, Design Through the 12 Principles of Green Engineering, Environmental Science and Technology, March 1, 2003
  40. 40. Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months. E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/ CLOSING THE LOOP– Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry
  41. 41. Source: Green Chemistry & Catalysis for the Production of Flavours & Fragrances, Roger A. Sheldon, Biocatalysis & Organic Chemistry, Delft University of Technology, Nice, 17 June 2005; and, R.A. Sheldon, Green Chemistry & Catalysis for Sustainable Organic Synthesis, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, May 12, 2004 mass balance: E= [raw materials-product]/product
  42. 42. Source: The Green Screen for Safer Chemicals Version 1.0, Clean Production Action, Jan. 2001 The Green Screen is a benchmarking tool that assesses a chemical’s hazard with the intent to guide decision making toward the use of the least hazardous options via a process of informed substitution.
  43. 43. Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses on design of products and a production cycle that strives to produce no waste or pollutants at all stages of the lifecycle. Source: Braungart and McDonough Cradle-to-Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002)
  44. 44. Reducing a Product’s Environmental Footprint Spider diagram is one way to show how a particular product’s environmental effects or ―footprint‖ are reduced over time through incremental improvements in sustainable design. This diagram shows the dimensions of the footprint in years 2009, 2025 and 2050. Source: California Green Chemistry Initiative, Final Report, California EPA and Dept. Toxic Substances Control, December 2008
  45. 45. Ultra-low Carbon multi-beneficial Energy Service Options
  46. 46. To have a reasonable confidence that warming would stay below 2 C, global emissions must peak by 2015, reach a sustained rate of decline of 10%/year for decades, falling to zero by 2050. More cautious climate scientists argue we will need to go negative through 2100 to reach 350ppm – essential given greater climate sensitivity than previous thought. A Copenhagen Prognosis: Towards a Safe Climate Future A Synthesis of the Science of Climate Change, Environment and Development, SEI, TERI, PIK, 2009 900 1000 600 1000 900 World Energy Projections
  47. 47. 1. Economically affordable 2. Safe 3. Clean 4. Risk is low and manageable 5. Resilient and flexible 6. Ecologically sustainable 7. Environmentally benign 8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically 9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures 10. Endogenous learning capacity 11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities & amplifying positive externalities 12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption Dozen Desirable Criteria Attributes of Green Energy Services including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped? through the entire life cycle? through the entire lifespan? from financial and price volatility? to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error? no adverse impacts on biodiversity? maintains air, water, soil quality? adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises? low recovery cost and lost time? Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities? scalable production possibilities? off radar of terrorists or military planners?
  48. 48. A Defensible Green Energy Criteria Scoring Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste power Geo- thermal Nat gas Bio- fuels Oil imports Coal CCS nuclearTar sand Oil shale Coal to liquids Coal no CCS Promote CHP + biowastes Economically Affordable Safe Clean Secure Resilient & flexible Ecologically sustainable Environmentally benign Fails gracefully, not catastro Rebounds easily from failures Endogenous learning capacity Robust experience curves Uninteresting military target
  49. 49. η eta SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation Universal symbol for Efficiency The best thing about low- hanging fruit is that it keeps growing back.
  50. 50. Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 2010–2020 for developing countries and $48–60 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or about half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels. Breakdown by abatement type: • 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture) • 6 Gt energy efficiency • 4 Gt low carbon energy supply CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020
  51. 51. Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind cogen bldg scale cogen recycled ind cogen end-use efficiency CCS Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh) US current average
  52. 52. Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind cogen bldg scale cogen recycled ind cogen 2¢ 50 33 25 end-use efficiency
  53. 53. Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind cogen bldg scale cogen recycled ind cogen 2¢ end-use efficiency 47 32 23 1¢: 93 kg CO2/$ Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services
  54. 54. Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California Energy Commission, (916) 654-4930, ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
  55. 55. New York California USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity Consumption 165 GW Coal Power Plants Californian’s have net savings of $1,000 per family [EPPs] For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
  56. 56. Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html $50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 59 Gt CO2 Reduction
  57. 57. Now use 1/2 global power 50% efficiency savings achievable 90% cost savings ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
  58. 58. Public library – North Carolina Heinz Foundation Green Building, PA Oberlin College Ecology Center, Ohio ZERO NET ENERGY & EMISSION GREEN BUILDINGS The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings, A Report to California’s Sustainable Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by Greg Kats et al. $500 to $700 per m2 net present value
  59. 59. Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amounts of power plants with annual savings potential exceeding tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells. Daylighting could provide lighting services of 100s of GW power plants
  60. 60. Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills. Ultra-efficient Windows could save tens of billions $$ per year & displace Alaskan pipelines
  61. 61. [source: SafeClimate.net] -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 6-pak CFLs Dow-Jones Average Bank Account $ $10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value
  62. 62. source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991 CFL factories displace power plants The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil- fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.
  63. 63. LED light- emitting diodes
  64. 64. Less Coal Power Plants Less Coal Rail Cars Less Coal Mines More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs” Less Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants
  65. 65. Earth receives more solar energy every 90 minutes than humanity consumes all year
  66. 66. Source: Doug Balcomb, The Energy Road Ahead, Solar Today, April 2010, www.solartoday.org/ USA Green Energy Services by 2060
  67. 67. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 year TeraWattsperyear Fast phase-out fossil fuels Global Green Economies-driven Energy Services this Century 100
  68. 68. Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients – 1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility afflicting every energy and power source used in driving economic activity
  69. 69. SUN FUSION PHOTONS
  70. 70. In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area— on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
  71. 71. 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/; Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% total US electricity from brownfields
  72. 72. SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Material Replaced Economic Measure Beijing Shanghai Polished Stone NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs) +$18,586 2.33 1 +$14,237 2.14 1 Aluminum NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs) +$15,373 1.89 2 +$11,024 1.70 2 Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T] China Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
  73. 73. Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials. Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/ Economics of Commercial BIPVChina Economics of Commercial BIPV
  74. 74. Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
  75. 75. MW Compared to: Wind power 121,000 MW Nuclear power 350,000 MW Hydro power 770,000 MW Natural Gas power 1 million MW Coal power 2 million MW Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008 40% annual growth rate Doubling <22 months 40% annual growth rate through 2030 could provide twice current total world energy use 2009 21GW [158,000 in 2009]
  76. 76. 2069 Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 Year Megawatts 2000 20692009 2021 2033 2045 2057 Solar PV Growth @ 15% per year 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 Year Megawatts 2000 21092009 2029 2049 2069 2089 Equal to total world consumption in 2009 59 TW by 2075 59 TW by 2119 What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century? Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year Solar PV Growth @ 15% per year 2109 2089
  77. 77. Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University, zweibel@gwu.edu , http://Solar.gwu.edu/
  78. 78. Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
  79. 79. Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis Solar power beats thermal plants within their construction lead time—at zero carbon price
  80. 80. 1 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1 2 PV NUCLEAR Billion $ 2008 constant Civilian Nuclear Power (1948 – 2009) vs. Solar Photovoltaics (1975-2009) $4.2 $85 Federal Research & Development Funds
  81. 81. Wind?
  82. 82. Corn ethanol Cellulosic ethanol Wind-battery turbine spacing Wind turbines ground footprint Solar-battery Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
  83. 83. Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40% 95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
  84. 84. The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture) Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
  85. 85. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm US Farm Revenues per hectare govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 windpower farm non-wind farm Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/ Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income Crop revenue Govt. subsidy Wind profits
  86. 86. 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); Potential Synergisms 2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef. Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
  87. 87. Vehicle-to-Grid Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet Convergences & Emergences
  88. 88. Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large- scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity) providing operating reserves or storage for wind. Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294. PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES
  89. 89. Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/. ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million). ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation).
  90. 90. Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
  91. 91. Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for Biofuel Production through Algae Systems Mississippi River Delta Yangtze River Pearl River
  92. 92. Small Land footprint Only Wastewater as Feedstock Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
  93. 93. Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  94. 94. CO2 ATS Biodiesel Fermenter (Clostridium butylicum C. Pasteurianum, etc.) C6H12O6  C4H9OH + CO2 + … Biobutanol Ethanol Acetone Lactic Acid Acetic Acid Oil ALGAL BIOMASS Solvent Extraction Nutrient Rich Water (Sewage, polluted river water) + atmospheric CO2 (or power plant stack gases) Clean water Lower N P P, higher O2 + pH Less CO2 in atmosphere Transesterification Organic Fertilizer Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  95. 95. Algae butanol biodiesel Corn (ethanol) Soy (biodiesel) Estimated Biofuel Production (gallons per acre or ha per year) 1520 500 ---- 2000 ---- 100 + Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923 [3,770 gal/ha/yr] [5,000 gal/ha/yr] [1,250 gal/ha/yr] [250 gal/ha/yr] Biofuel Production from Algal Turf Scrubber Biomass (50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)
  96. 96. Knowledge generation transmission & distribution networks
  97. 97. The volume of digital information that exists—500 billion gigabytes-- equals a stack of books stretching to Pluto and back 10 times – 36 trillion miles total.
  98. 98. The Library of Congress is the largest library in the world, with nearly 128 million items on approximately 530 miles of bookshelves. The amount of data produced each year would fill 37,000 libraries the size of the Library of Congress.
  99. 99. Kevin Kelly, Next 5000 days of the Internet, TED talk, 12-20-08, www.ted.org/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html 5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet 5000 days from now Global Cloud Network
  100. 100. Social Collaboration building a Shared Vision
  101. 101. Imperative
  102. 102. What Makes This Possible? •Digital Technology • Internet networks • Web applications • Smart Phones & Handhelds
  103. 103. The WIKIPEDIA Collective Intelligence MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 100,000 volunteer editors and content authors Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by > 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
  104. 104. Size of a printed version of Wikipedia within 72 months (2001-2007) Open Source & Global Access by Mobile Phones & Handhelds
  105. 105. How to fast-track greener cities
  106. 106. www.wbdg.org/ Whole Building Design Guide Passive Solar Cooling Passive Solar Heating Natural Ventilation Solar Daylighting
  107. 107. Web-based Green Building Advisor
  108. 108. Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck. GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops 100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND, WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century
  109. 109. Solar smart poly-grids Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
  110. 110. Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.
  111. 111. Architecture of Participation
  112. 112. Norman L. Johnson, Science of Collective Intelligence: Resources for change, in chapter in Mark Tovey (ed.). 2008. Collective Intelligence, Creating a Prosperous World at Peace, www.earth-intelligence.net. Utility of expert & collective with increasing complexity
  113. 113. Connected
  114. 114. The Universe of Green Tipping Points
  115. 115. GreenTippingPoints
  116. 116. PHOTRONIC NETWORKS
  117. 117. THANK YOU! Michael Totten Conservation International mtotten@conservation.org
  118. 118. Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1 incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) in 130 nations Source: Green Chemistry: Molecular Design‐Build, Paul T. Anastas, Yale University, Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering Doing the right things wrong
  119. 119. Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1 incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) in US states Source: Green Chemistry: Molecular Design‐Build, Paul T. Anastas, Yale University, Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering Doing the right things wrong
  120. 120. A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
  121. 121. SEVERE AIR & WATER POLLUTION, DISLOCATED REFUGEES

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