GLOBAL BIOFUELISHNESS??

                   WIREC Presentation
                      March 5, 2008
                       ...
Amory
                  Lovins



1 billion
gallons/day

               Seattle Mayor
               Greg Nichols




    ...
Source: Amy Raskin and Saurin Shah, The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles, Ending Oil’s Stranglehold on Transportation and the ...
Eliminating USA Oil dependency
$70 to $280 billion per year net savings (@ $25 to $100 per bbl)

 “T]he book’s powerful su...
Fuel Efficiency Impact on USA Land
Requirements for Biofuel Production




                             PHEV




<20 mpg  ...
U.S. Biofuel Subsidies per ton CO2

                                                     Low                              ...
Money-saving, Oil-reducing, land-conserving
                                Cost Comparison Biodiesel vs Truck Efficiency
...
6.4 mpg -- 17 billion gallons

                       Land required if
                       Switching from
             ...
6.4 mpg -- 17 billion gallons




                        13 mpg – 7.6 billion gallons

If Efficiency instead
     of biod...
Connecting the 980 GW Utility Grid
               and
The 2,700 GW of Battery Capacity
       in Plug-In Vehicles
PNL 2006 Analysis Summary
                  PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
ENERGY POTENTIAL
U.S. existing electricity infr...
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles?
                                Solar-w/storage
                              ...
Figures of Merit
              Great Plains
             1,200,000 mi2

     100% U.S. electricity
    400,000 wind turbin...
Although agriculture controls
                                                                  about 70% of Great Plains ...
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
        Rural Farm and Ranch Income
                                         US Far...
Potential Synergisms
 Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native pra...
In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met
simply...
1% of land area receives 300 TWy
                                                  (TeraWatt-years) of solar energy.
     ...
Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for
 Biofuel Production through Algae Systems
Nutrient Rich Water                                                Clean water
                     (Sewage, polluted rive...
Biofuel Production from ATS Biomass
                             (50 tons per acre per year, dry)

                       ...
Small Land footprint
     Only Wastewater as Feedstock
Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
Food, Fuel, Species
      Tradeoffs?
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of
land may be required for agriculture.

When...
Wirec 2008 Biofuels Presentation Totten 03 08
Wirec 2008 Biofuels Presentation Totten 03 08
Wirec 2008 Biofuels Presentation Totten 03 08
Wirec 2008 Biofuels Presentation Totten 03 08
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Wirec 2008 Biofuels Presentation Totten 03 08

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My presentation at the Washington International Renewable Energy Conference, on the serious problems of biofuel dependency when scaled globally and over this century

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Wirec 2008 Biofuels Presentation Totten 03 08

  1. 1. GLOBAL BIOFUELISHNESS?? WIREC Presentation March 5, 2008 by Michael Totten Chief Advisor, Climate, Water & Ecosystem Services Conservation International mtotten@conservation.org
  2. 2. Amory Lovins 1 billion gallons/day Seattle Mayor Greg Nichols San Fran Mayor Gavin Newsom
  3. 3. Source: Amy Raskin and Saurin Shah, The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles, Ending Oil’s Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy, June 2006, AllianceBernstein, www.calcars.org/alliance-bernstein-hybrids-june06.pdf . Siting Feng An, Pew Center for Global Change and WRI Capital Markets Research.
  4. 4. Eliminating USA Oil dependency $70 to $280 billion per year net savings (@ $25 to $100 per bbl) “T]he book’s powerful summary…argues persuasively that by 2035 we can be entirely independent of imported oil and that ‘it will cost less to displace all of the oil that the United States now uses than it will cost to buy that oil.’” — Robert C.McFarlane (National Security Advisor to President Reagan), Wall Street Journal, 20 Dec. 2004 Dept. of Defense sponsored, peer-reviewed technical report, preface by former Secretary of State George Schulz, intro by ex-Chairman, Royal Dutch Shell, Sir Mark Moody-Stuart www.oilendgame.org/
  5. 5. Fuel Efficiency Impact on USA Land Requirements for Biofuel Production PHEV <20 mpg >100 mpg
  6. 6. U.S. Biofuel Subsidies per ton CO2 Low High Estimate Estimate Ethanol $300 ($600) Biodiesel $240 ($700) Efficiency -$11 Source: Doug Koplow, BIOFUELS - AT WHAT COST ?, Government support for ethanol and biodiesel in the United States : 2007 Update, One of a series of reports addressing subsidies for biofuels in selected OECD countries, The Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Geneva, Switzerland, www.earthtracks.org/
  7. 7. Money-saving, Oil-reducing, land-conserving Cost Comparison Biodiesel vs Truck Efficiency $70 $60 $50 p er b arrel co st $40 $65 $30 $20 $10 $12 $- biodiesel truck efficiency Amory B. Lovins et al., Winning the Oil End-Game, 2005, www.oilendgame.com/
  8. 8. 6.4 mpg -- 17 billion gallons Land required if Switching from Fossil Diesel to BioDiesel from 265 million acres Soy Plantations Texas + Kansas + For all Class 8 trucks in USA Oklahoma
  9. 9. 6.4 mpg -- 17 billion gallons 13 mpg – 7.6 billion gallons If Efficiency instead of biodiesel 265 80 million acres 19 mpg – 5 billion gallons
  10. 10. Connecting the 980 GW Utility Grid and The 2,700 GW of Battery Capacity in Plug-In Vehicles
  11. 11. PNL 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), 73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation). Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
  12. 12. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles? Solar-w/storage Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-w/storage turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  13. 13. Figures of Merit Great Plains 1,200,000 mi2 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind farm area 37,500 mi2 Available for farming and prairie restoration 34,000 mi2 CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%
  14. 14. Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes less than 10% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
  15. 15. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy non-wind farm Wind profits windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
  16. 16. Potential Synergisms Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co- evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high- value organic, free- range beef. Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
  17. 17. In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying PV to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. We wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
  18. 18. 1% of land area receives 300 TWy (TeraWatt-years) of solar energy. At 20% conversion efficiency Solar PV systems would yield 60 TWy – 400% more than 2005 total global energy use. UniSolar Roll-to-roll triple-junction amorphous Sillicon deposition plant of 30 MW annual Using PV to supply all US electricity and all US energy requires only 0.4% and 1.2% of US land area, respectively. US military bases and Farm Set- Aside Land are each about 1% of US land area now. NanoSolar roll-printing process of Copper-Indium- Gallium-diSelenide (CIGS) solar cells in Calif.
  19. 19. Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
  20. 20. Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for Biofuel Production through Algae Systems
  21. 21. Nutrient Rich Water Clean water (Sewage, polluted river water) Lower N P P, higher O2 + pH ATS + atmospheric CO2 Less CO2 in atmosphere (or power plant stack gases) ALGAL CO2 BIOMASS Dis tilla Biobutanol tio n Solvent Fermenter Extraction (Clostridium butylicum Oil Ethanol C. Pasteurianum, etc.) Acetone C6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 + … Transesterification Lactic Acid Acetic Acid Organic Biodiesel Fertilizer Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  22. 22. Biofuel Production from ATS Biomass (50 tons per acre per year, dry) Estimated Biofuel Production (gallons per acre per year) Algae butanol 1520 + biodiesel 2000 Corn (ethanol) 500 ---- Soy (biodiesel) ---- 100 Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  23. 23. Small Land footprint Only Wastewater as Feedstock Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
  24. 24. Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  25. 25. Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs? By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture. When combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed to support the medium growth bioenergy scenarios, this will greatly increase threats to intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.

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