Michael P Totten A Climate For Life Mesh Talk Bioneer Los Angeles 12 09 09
A CLIMATE FOR LIFE MESH
Or, How Many Bits & Wits (Collective Intelligence) Does It Take to Turn Global Climate Threats into Sustainable Prosperity and Well-Being Presentation to the Bioneers of Los Angeles December 09, 2009 Michael P. Totten (firstname.lastname@example.org) Chief Advisor, Climate, Energy & Green Technologies, CI’s Center for Environmental Leadership in Business
Observed Antarctic Warming Trend (
C/decade) from 1957-2006 Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science., Ian Allison, Nathan Bindoff, Robert Bindschadler, Peter Cox, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre , Matthew England, Jane Francis, Nicolas Gruber, Alan Haywood , David Karoly , Georg Kaser, Corinne Le Quéré, Tim Lenton, Michael Mann, Ben McNeil, Andy Pitman, Stefan Rahmstorf , Eric Rignot, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Steven Sherwood, Richard Somerville, Konrad Steffen, Eric Steig, Martin Visbeck, Andrew Weaver., www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
Trend in Ocean Surface Temperature
( C, 1959-2008) Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science., Ian Allison, Nathan Bindoff, Robert Bindschadler, Peter Cox, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre , Matthew England, Jane Francis, Nicolas Gruber, Alan Haywood , David Karoly , Georg Kaser, Corinne Le Quéré, Tim Lenton, Michael Mann, Ben McNeil, Andy Pitman, Stefan Rahmstorf , Eric Rignot, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Steven Sherwood, Richard Somerville, Konrad Steffen, Eric Steig, Martin Visbeck, Andrew Weaver., www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350
ppm CO2 Trajectory GtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm Based on 6 Celsius climate sensitivity Main difference between two projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/
Where the world needs to
go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
CLIMATE CATASTROPHE THREAT THE GOOD
& GREAT NEWS AND THE BAD & WORSE NEWS The GOOD news is there does not appear to be any scientific, technological or economic barrier to achieving atmospheric stabilization of GHGs at a level low enough to avoid global climate catastrophe – or 350 ppm CO2. The GREAT news is it appears feasible this could be done while growing a prosperous economy, ending poverty, and halting species extinction and ecosystem destruction. The BAD news is the estimated net present value of climate change impacts from BAU (business-as-usual) is $1240 TRILLION, assuming stabilization of CO2 at between 550 and 800 ppm by 2100. The even WORSE news is that humanity is on pace to exceed 850 ppm.
CO2 Abatement potential & cost
for 2020 Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or about half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
Adopting Win-Win-Win Portfolios Use portfolio
of multiple-benefit actions to become climate positive and create new marketing opportunities Abundant ICT Sector Market Expansion Opportunities Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green Power Biodiversity Protection
Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies
1) RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water & resources) 2) PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio that deliver triple benefits (climate protection, biodiversity preservation, and promotion of community sustainable development) 3) ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELS Select only verifiable „green power/fuels‟ that are climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts
1824 Liters per year 4.8
tons CO2 emissions per (10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year) = year ~34€ ($48) to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at 7 € ($10) per tCO2 Adds 1.6 pence per liter
Geological storage (CCS) vs U.S.
fossil Electricity CO2 Ecological storage (REDD) mitigation cost annually Carbon Mitigation Cost (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007) $ per ton CO2 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) $50 $45 ~$100 billion $40 ~3 ¢ per kWh $35 $30 $25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation $20 & Degradation (REDD) $15 $10 ~$18 billion $5 ~0.5 ¢ per kWh $- 0 CCS REDD Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007
$7.50 per ton CO2 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh $18 billion/yr REDD trade Poverty reduction Prevent Species loss A A win-win-win win-win-win Tropical Deforestation 2007 outcome outcome 13 million hectares burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions
At the Governors Global Climate
Summit in Sept., California Governor Schwarzenegger and 10 other governors from the United States, Brazil and Indonesia are sending a letter to U.S. President Obama, Brazilian President Lula da Silva, and Indonesian President Yudhoyono urging them to include forest protection in international and national climate change policies .
A carbon tax applied to
emissions from agriculture and land-use change would encourage protection of natural resources Source: Wise, M. A., K. V. Calvin, A. M. Thomson, L.E. Clarke, B. Bond- Lamberty, R. D. Sands, S. J. Smith, A. C. Janetos, and J. A. Edmonds. 2009a. “Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy.” Science 324 (5931): 1183–86.
ICT/IP Companies Get IT! Bits
Can Deliver Services Better than Atoms The key challenge is transforming last century’s pervasive legacy regulations, policies, and incentives for expanding resource supplies to harnessing this century’s opportunities for delivering the myriad smarter, greener ICT-based services.
The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6
years and with only 6 paid employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
Poverty Reduction & Elimination Climate
Mitigation Financing Services Preventing Species Extinction Public Incentives Smart Energy Services Avoiding Oil & Resource Wars IP platform for creating A Climate for Life Focus+Context Visual Foraging Tools Smart ICT Utility Smart Services
Climate Mesh Template for Green
Development Strategies = hyperlink to Mesh resources Knowledge tools Knowledge Needs CLICKS AWAY Web access, share, add, distribute, produce, collaborate around shared vision
Climate Mesh for Raising the
Bar Going Beyond Reinvention of the Wheel • Interdisciplinary linkages • Visual salience of connected issues • Easier exploration of nested hierarchies for user to explore without getting lost • Recognizing relationships previously unaware of • Relevance ranking for surfacing best-in-play examples (and best-to- avoid alerts) • Multi-faceted computation and visualization tools • Capacity to examine and compare multi-criteria and multi-attribute challenges, problems, solutions • Access to continuously evolving results, learning curves, experience curves, insights, understandings, and capability to communicate, query, converse on findings • Accessible by smart phones & netbooks worldwide
“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning
key to harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants” For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity 165 GW Consumption Coal Power New York Plants California [EPPs] Californian‟s have net savings of $1,000 per family Utility’s Earnings Go Up even as Revenues Go Down Customers’ Bills Go Down even as Rates Go Up
In the USA, cities and
residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%
of total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
Economics of Commercial BIPV Reference
costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials. Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Attributes of breakeven PV systems
Attributes & incentives include: Compensation for power at retail electric rates Tax credits Financing, leasing, and depreciation options Net-metering options and/or rate- based incentives Building credits for architectural applications Willingness to pay for clean power and innovation Quality of solar resource and customer load match Progressive state government, regulatory, and utility support. The best niche markets are the locations that have the best combinations of these attributes and incentives. Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Photovoltaics Focusing on Markets that Really Shine, NREL, www.nrel.gov/research/pv/cust-sited.html
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power
Auctions Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.
Area to Power 100% of
U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Wind & Solar experts Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources
in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 3MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total WindFarm spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40% USA total GHG emissions
Wind Farm Royalties – Could
Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source
of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy non-wind farm Wind profits windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Montana South Dakota Great Plains
Multi-TW Wind Resources in Varying Stages of ICT/IPC Technical, Ecological, Wyoming Nebraska Economic, Financial Assessment, Mapping, Visualization, Installation, Operation & Post- Iowa Production Options Colorado Oklahoma New Mexico Texas
Potential Synergisms Two additional potential
revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef. Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
National Green & REDD Economic
Development Strategies launched in 2009 by the Presidents of Suriname and Guyana WIN-WIN-WIN PORTFOLIOS Low-Deforestation, Low-Carbon Development Strategies, using REDD carbon savings traded for revenues to help fund green economic development. ICT/IP intensive approach could create open source public knowledge assets for other nations and cities to leverage.
Suriname • 165,000 km2 in
size • 4 times size of Netherlands • 470,000 people, 80% live in Paramaribo • 25% of the population live on less than $2 a day A South American nation with a population the size of a small city. Paramaribo
Guyana • 215,000 km2 in
size • About the size of Oregon • 770,000 people, 90% reside on coastal strip (~10% of Guyana land area) • 17% of the population live on less than $2 a day A South American nation with a population the size of Portland, OR
Offshore Wind Farms National Green
& REDD Green Bldgs Economic Development Strategy REDD Carbon Revenues Utility financial incentives Standards motors appliances Spatial mapping Trust fund
Other Users of the Open
Source Climate Mesh public knowledge assets and resources www.seattle.gov/mayor/climate/ More than 1000 U.S. Cities Over 1000 mayors representing 75% of U.S. cities with 30,000 people or more are committed to reducing their CO2 emissions below 1990 levels
Other Users of the Open
Source Climate Mesh public knowledge assets and resources More than 2000 global companies doing GHG inventories
Bottom of the Pyramid Growth
$300 Billion Capital Needed to MicroFinance Poor Out of Poverty Creating a World Without Poverty Social Business and the future of Capitalism Three to four $100 microfinance loans enables most Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty
Village Micro-finance Bank & Village
Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti) Women are enjoying the hazardless and hassle free lighting system in their daily life. They are getting opportunities to earn extra money by utilizing their time after dusk by sewing or poultry farming.
Every hour 200 children under
5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good. Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
4 billion annual episodes of
diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poor Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
A new water disinfector for
the developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA • Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection • Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3) • Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor • Reliable, Mature components • Can treat unpressurized water • Rapid throughput: 12 seconds • Low maintenance: 4x per year • No overdose risk • Fail-safe Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global- water%202008.pdf WaterHealth Intl device
WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs.
Other Treatment Options Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WaterHealth International Business model reaches
underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas. And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid. Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
E-bikes are now among the
cheapest & cleanest travel mode options in China Source: Cherry, C. R. 2007. “Electric Two-Wheelers in China: Analysis of Environmental, Safety, and Mobility Impacts.” Ph.D. thesis. UC Berkeley; Weinert, J., C. Ma, and C. Cherry. 2007. “The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons for Rapid Growth.” Transportation 34 (3): 301–18.
Small local adjustments for big
global benefits: Switching from SUVs to fuel- Efficient passenger cars in the USA alone would nearly offset the emissions generated by providing energy to 1.6 billion more people Source: BTS (Bureau of Transportation Statistics). 2008. Key Transportation Indicators November 2008. Washington, DC: U. S. Department of Transportation.
If we want to hold
CO2 even to 550 ppmv, even with aggressive energy efficiency we will need as much clean, carbon‐free energy within the next 40 years, online, as the entire oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear industries today combined – 10 to 15 terawatts. This is not changing a few light bulbs in Fresno, this is building an industry comparable to 50 ExxonMobils. Professor Nate Lewis, Caltech
Intensive beef production is a
heavy producer of greenhouse gas emissions Source: Williams, Audsley, and Sandars 2006.Determining the Environmental Burdens and Resource Use in the Production of Agricultural and Horticultural Commodities. London: Department for Environmental Food and Rural Affairs. Note: The figure shows CO2 equivalent emissions in kilograms resulting from the production (in an industrial country) of 1 kilogram of a specific product. The car and road image conveys the number of kilometers one must drive in a gasoline- powered car averaging 11.5 kilometers a liter to produce the given amount of CO2e emissions. For example, producing 1 kilogram of beef and driving 79.1 kilometers both result in 16 kilograms of emissions.