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The Role of Renewable Energy in a Carbon Constrained World
1. Changing Climate/The
Role of Renewable
Energy in a Carbon
Constrained World
E u n y o u n g K i m
S y n a p s e I n t e r n a t i o n a l
k i m e u n y @ g m a i l . c o m
16. Greenpeace Report
Source:Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Out look
2015 .
2007 156GW
2010 158GW
.
1 2
2030 . 850
. 2 4 .(
2 )
17. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
Mark Z Jacobson - Department of Civil Environmental Engineering,
Stanford University, California Mark A. Delucchi - Institute of
Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis, California
2030 100%
: Wind Water Solar
18. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
Wind Water and Solar
, , ,
2009
, , Life Cycle -
,
, , , , (WWS)
WWS
CO2
19. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
Wind Water and Solar
, , , , , ,
- CO2
- , ,
25
-
,
.
20. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
Wind Water and Solar
12.5TW - 16.9TW in 2030
WWS
2030 11.5 TW ( 1.8TW) -
17% - 20%
.- 75% - 86%
.
21. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
Wind Water and Solar for 11.5TW
51% - 3.8Million 5 MW ( 73M
) - 1%
40% - PV 30% & CSP 10% - 0.33%
9%
2030 16.9TW 1,3000
22. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
Wind Water and Solar for 11.5TW
WWS - 2020 4 /kWh -
.
WWS - $100 Trillion
16.5TW - $10 Trillion + +
,
23. Jacobson & Delucchi Plan
Wind Water and Solar
WWS - 1,700TW, 6,500TW
- 40 -85 TW, 580TW
- 0.02TW, 0.008 TW
.
.
26. U.S. Renewable Energy
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2010
2010 16GW 2 60%
45% of total US electric generation comes from
renewable energy by 2035- 61%- 65% if federal
production tax credit extended for 25 years.
19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035 in the world based the
new policies that government live up to.
27. Number of States Accepting Various Types of Energy as “Renewable
28. Political Atmosphere
80% of electricity from renewable energy by 2035 - renewable
energy: solar, wind, nuclear, clean coal and natural gas ( Obama
Union Address)
4B/ year fossil fuel subsidy directed to renewable energy
(Obama Union Address)
EPA - serious rules under the federal Clean Air Act that require
emitters to install best available control technology for
greenhouse gas reduction
Climate Change bill is abandoned
Congress passes a proposed national renewable energy standard
Not enough without a price on carbon - renewable energy will
not match with fossil fuel price. The renewable energy price may
doomed to failure because the price is too expensive
29. Summery of State Renewable Energy Standards
- DOE
State Amount Year Organization Administering RPS
Arizona 15% 2025 Arizona Corporation Commission
California 33% 2030 California Energy Commission
Colorado 20% 2020 Colorado Public Utilities Commission
Connecticut 23% 2020 Department of Public Utility Control
D.C. 20% 2020 DC Public Service Commission
Delaware 20% 2019 Delaware Energy Office
Hawaii 20% 2020 Hawaii Strategic Industries Division
Iowa 105 MW Iowa Utilities Board
Illinois 25% 2025 Illinois Department of Commerce
Massachusetts 15% 2020 Massachusetts Division of Energy Resources
Maryland 20% 2022 Maryland Public Service Commission
Maine 40% 2017 Maine Public Utilities Commission
Michigan 10% 2015 Michigan Public Service Commission
Minnesota 25% 2025 Minnesota Department of Commerce
Missouri 15% 2021 Missouri Public Service Commission
Montana 15% 2015 Montana Public Service Commission
New Hampshire 23.8% 2025 New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning
New Jersey 22.5% 2021 New Jersey Board of Public Utilities
New Mexico 20% 2020 New Mexico Public Regulation Commission
Nevada 20% 2015 Public Utilities Commission of Nevada
New York 24% 2013 New York Public Service Commission
North Carolina 12.5% 2021 North Carolina Utilities Commission
North Dakota* 10% 2015 North Dakota Public Service Commission
Oregon 25% 2025 Oregon Energy Office
Pennsylvania 8% 2020 Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
Rhode Island 16% 2019 Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission
South Dakota* 10% 2015 South Dakota Public Utility Commission
Texas 5,880 MW 2015 Public Utility Commission of Texas
Utah* 20% 2025 Utah Department of Environmental Quality
Vermont* 10% 2013 Vermont Department of Public Service
Virginia* 12% 2022 Virginia Department of Mines, Minterals, and Energy
Washington 15% 2020 Washington Secretary of State
Wisconsin 10% 2015 Public Service Commission of Wisconsin
30. U. S. Cap and Trade
meaningful political debate stopped on the
federal level - political anathema ( )
U.S. (2.2BT) & China (2.6BT) emission by
2035 (U.S. EIA) - 12% of world emission is
from U.S. coal.
EU is the largest economy union and U.S. is
the second -together $29.61B Gross Domestic
Product -3/4 carbon emission from
Developed country and 1/3 of world wide
emission
31.
32. World Carbon Market
EU emission trading system alone - $2B program
RGGI - 10 U.S. States - Capping emission of power
sector at 10% by 2018
80% of sales from allowance auctions go back to the
state for energy efficiency and renewable energy
The auction raised $775M as of early 2011
Some state diverted funds from clean energy to pay
down the debt - a great cap-and-trade success story
RGGI is the classic cap-and-invest strategy and the
result is that total energy costs with RGGI are lower
than without RGGI'.
33. Cap-and-Trade
California will start in 2012
Modeled after EU
Goal:1990s level emission by 2020
33% from renewable by 2020
Cap applies to a host of emission sources (industrial
processes)
starts small encompassing power plants, then gracually
adding the other resources, until the caps cover 85% of its
economy
After EU, CA will be the second largest in the world.-
population 37 M and world 8th largest economy - CA can
pressure U.S. congress for cap-and trade
34. The development of California's carbon cap-and-trade scheme
(Source: Point Carbon)
35.
36. U.S. Solar Market
1% of Total Renewable Energy consumption
in 2009
0.5% of National energy consumption
The fastest growing industry in 2010; $3.6B
in 2009 to $6B in 2010 - 67% increase and
20.5% reduction in price
PV installation will grow 5 times by 2015 -
US global market share from 5% to 15%
37. U.S. Solar Market
Treasury program ( Section 1603) has
provide key incentives and expires in 2011- It
is not clear if it continues - There is no
rhitoric that he will continue to support
Treasury’s Loan Guarantee Program facing
budger-cut by Congress.
38. U.S. Solar Market
States are turning to more market based
incentives such as Solar Renewable Energy
Credits and a cap and trade
California is the biggest market and New
Jersey is the most dynamic
Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania
39. Green Politics
Wind and Solar being cost competitive without
subsidy with new fossil fuel by 2020
Obama and Ken Salazar 758 Mt Coal in auction in
few months
The beaurou of land management announced 1.6
billion tons of coal will on sale in the future
Harvard study:1st generation CCS costs $150/CO2
ton(20Cents/kWh) - Study also found that leaks
from CO2 stored deep underground could
contaminate drinking water
40. Emerging Clean Tech
Green Concrete
Algae Biofuel
Green Building
Algae Food
Materials
Thin-film Solar
Artificial
Photosynthesis
Molten Solt Storage
Biochar
Rooftop Wind Power
Custom Biofuels
Wave Power/Tidal
Power
Recycling e-Waste
41. Molten Salt Storage
The surplus heat produced during the day
can e used to warm up massive amounts of
salt, which can absorb significant amounts of
heat. When the sun goes down that heat can
be used to generate steam and run an electric
turbine.
42. Recycling e-Waste
The fast growing part of the solid waste
stream- 20-50M mt/year
CloudBlue - New Jergy based company
arranging for direct pickup and recycle
ensure that valuable metals can be reused
ensure no-waste end up in a landfill - poison a child in
Africa or China
43. Algae Biofuel
Algae Food
Sapphire Energy in CA & Algenol in FL -
near commercial development
Solazyme, South San Francisco - algae food
replace egg, butter, oil, cookies - taste like
snack but nutritious like healthy olive oil.
44. Thin-Film
First Solar in Arizona & Nano Solar in San
Jose
First Solar is the first publicly trade and one
of the most successful renewable energy firm
First Solar 11.2% efficiency
Solexant’ Oregon factory will hit 12% in late
2012
45. Rooftop Wind Power
Windtronics
mini-wind turbine - 6 ft in diameter, a large
circular window fan
up to 1,500KW/h per year - (10 - 18
turbines would power a typical house in
the US)
no-rotaing gearbox, blades are equipped
with magnets at the tips and are enclosed
in a wheel that contains coiled copper -
entire turbine is an electric generator
The turbine is much quieter
46. Green Concrete &
Green Building Material
Novacem - Cement that absorbs CO2 -
Carbon negative- near commercial use
Serious Materials