The document summarizes key findings from the Institute for Economics and Peace's 2021 Global Peace Index report. It finds that 73 countries deteriorated in peacefulness while 87 improved. Deteriorations were primarily driven by increases in militarization, military spending, and declines in safety and security, while improvements stemmed from reductions in conflicts and terrorism impacts. Iceland remains the most peaceful country while Afghanistan is the least peaceful. The economic cost of violence amounts to $1.496 trillion, or 11.6% of world GDP.

1. Global
Peace
Index 2021
Overview & key findings

2. The Institute for Economics
and Peace is an independent,
not-for-profit think tank
dedicated to building a greater
understanding of the key
drivers of peace, as well as
identifying the economic
benefits that increased
peacefulness can deliver.

3. Institute for Economics & Peace
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5. Institute for Economics & Peace
The Global Peace Index
99.7%
of world’s population
covered
15thyear
Now in its Ranks
163
countries
Using
23
Indicators weighed
on a 1-5 scale
Developed by the
Institute for
Economics and
Peace
Guided and
overseen by a
panel of
International
Experts

6. Including: intensity of
organized internal
conflicts, relations with
neighbouring countries
and number of deaths
from conflict
6
measures of
ongoing domestic
and international
conflict
Including: number
of refugees and
IDPs, impact of
terrorism, homicide
and incarceration
rates
10
measures of
societal safety
and security
Including: military
expenditure,
number of armed
service personnel,
ease of access to
small weapons
7
measures of
militarisation
The Global Peace Index Indicators

7. Key
Findings
01.

8. The Global Peac Index Indicators

9. Institute for Economics & Peace
2021 key highlights
73 countries deteriorated
87 countries became
more peaceful
The average level of global country
peacefulness has deteriorated by
0.07%
This is the ninth deterioration in
the last 13 years.
Deteriorations primarily driven by
changes in:
• Militarisation
• Military expenditure
• Safety and Security
Improvements were driven by
changes in:
• Ongoing conflict
• Internal conflict
• Terrorism impact

10. Institute for Economics & Peace
2021 highlights
Indicators with the largest deterorations in 2021 GPI
 Violent demonstrations – 3 times more countries fell as improved
 Political instability – twice as many countries fell as improved
 Militarization – 97 countries deteriorated
Indicators with the largest improvements in the 2021 GPI
 Deaths from internal conflict
 Number and intensity of internal conflicts
 Deaths from terrorism – 6th consecutive year of improvements

11. Institute for Economics & Peace
2021 highlights – continued
Iceland is the most peaceful country in the world
Ukraine and Iraq had the largest improvement
Middle East and North Africa had the largest regional improvement.
However, it remains the least peaceful region
Europe remains the most peaceful region, despite a deterioration in
political instability, mainly because of improvements in terrorism

12. Institute for Economics & Peace
2021 highlights - continued
Afghanistan remains the world’s least peaceful nation.
However, it recorded a small increase in peacefulness
North America had the largest regional deterioration, owing to
increases in violent demonstrations
Burkina Faso and Belarus recorded the largest deteriorations
Six of the nine GPI regions recorded deteriorations

13. Institute for Economics & Peace
10 most peaceful countries
DENMARK
Rank change: 2
3
NEW ZEALAND
Rank change: 1
2 SWITZERLAND
Rank change: 2
7
IRELAND
Rank change: 3
8
CANADA
Rank change: 3
10
CZECH REPUBLIC
Rank change: 1
9
AUSTRIA
Rank change: 2
6
SLOVENIA
Rank change: 5
5
PORTUGAL
Rank change: 2
4
ICELAND
Rank change:
1

14. Institute for Economics & Peace
10 least peaceful countries
AFGHANISTAN
Rank change:
163
SOUTH SUDAN
Rank change:
160
RUSSIA
Rank change:
154
LIBYA
Rank change: 1
156
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC
OF THE CONGO
Rank change: 1
157
CENTRAL AFRICA
REPUBLIC
Rank change: 1
155
SOMALIA
Rank change: 1
158
IRAQ
Rank change: 2
159
SYRIA
Rank change: 1
161
YEMEN
Rank change: 3
162

15. Institute for Economics & Peace
2021 regional overview
MENA
North America
North America recorded the largest
deterioration in 2021, with the
average level of peacefulness in
the region falling by 1.8 per cent
Europe remains the most
peaceful region in the world
and is home to eight of the ten
most peaceful countries
Europe
Despite recording the largest
improvement in peacefulness in
2021, MENA remains the least
peaceful region in the world
South Asia
One of three regions to record an
improvement in peacefulness, but
it remains the second least
peaceful region overall

16. Institute for Economics & Peace
IRAQ
RANK: 159
Rose 2 places
5 most improved countries
UKRAINE
RANK: 142
Rose 5 places
POLAND
RANK: 24
Rose 9 places
VIETNAM
RANK: 50
Rose 19 places
NORTH MACEDONIA
RANK: 40
Rose 11 places

17. Institute for Economics & Peace
5 most deteriorated countries
BURKINA FASO
RANK: 134
Fell 13 places
BELARUS
RANK: 117
Fell 19 places
AZERBAIJAN
RANK: 121
Fell 6 places
ZAMBIA
RANK: 71
Fell 24 places
HONDURAS
RANK: 124
Fell 8 places

18. COVID-19 &
Peace
02.

19. Institute for Economics & Peace
Impact of COVID-19 on Peacefulness
Long-term impact of the pandemic on homicide, violent crime, suicide is
unclear.
Civil unrest increased considerably after an initial drop. There was a ten per
cent increase in violent demonstrations in 2020
While levels of violence fell in the early stages of the pandemic, most forms of violence
returned to pre-COVID levels
Political instability deteriorated in 46 countries. COVID-19 exacerbated
existing tensions in many countries
If poor economic conditions persist, likelihood of future civil unrest will
increase
There were 5,000 COVID related violent incidents in 2020

20. Institute for Economics & Peace
COVID-19 related violent incidents, January
2020 to April 2021
There were over 5,000 pandemic-related incidents during this period that involved
some form of violence.

21. Institute for Economics & Peace
COVID-19 and economic recovery
Countries with higher levels of Positive Peace are better placed to recover
quicker from the pandemic
Economic recovery will be the key factor in whether civil unrest continues to grow
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway,
Singapore, Slovenia, and Switzerland are best placed for a post-COVID-19
recovery
OECD Countries – Countries with high Positive Peace achieved unemployment
rates of under 7% in 2020 compared to rates of up to 23% in low Positive Peace
countries

22. Trends in
Peace
03.

23. Institute for Economics & Peace
countries
became less
peaceful
75
countries
became more
peaceful
Peace declined
2.00%
Since 2008
Improvements and deteriorations, 2008-2021
86

24. Institute for Economics & Peace
Peace since 2008
Peacefulness has declined year on year for nine of the last 13 years.
2.00
2.02
2.04
2.06
2.08
2.10
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
GPI
SCORE
OVERALL SCORE TREND
Less
Peaceful
->
<-
More
Peaceful
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
YOY % CHANGE

25. Institute for Economics & Peace
Rising inequality in Global Peace
The gap between the least and most peaceful countries continues to grow.
Most Peaceful
Least Peaceful
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
CHANGE
IN
GPI
SCORE
(2008
=
1)
<-
More
Peaceful
Less
Peaceful
->

26. Institute for Economics & Peace
Trends in key Safety and Security indicators
Violent Demonstrations now at their highest level since the beginning of the index
Over 80 million people have now been forcibly displaced by violence
The average global homicide rate continues to fall
2.55
2.60
2.65
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.90
2.95
3.00
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
AVERAGE
SCORE
Violent Demonstrations
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
MILLIONS
OF
PEOPLE
Forcibly Displaced People
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
HOMICIDE
RATE
Homicide Rate

27. Institute for Economics & Peace
Civil Unrest, 2011 - 2019
Demonstrations
Riots
General Strikes
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
UNREST
EVENTS
Major unrest events increased by 251% between 2011 and 2019

28. Institute for Economics & Peace
Trends in key Ongoing Conflict indicators
Battle Deaths continue to fall after peaking in 2014
Total conflicts fell in the past two years, but are 88% higher than 2010
The average intensity of internal conflict is still rising
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NUMBER
OF
DEATHS
Battle Deaths
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
ACTIVE
CONFLICTS
Total Conflicts
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
AVERAGE
INTENSITY
Intensity of Internal Conflict

29. Institute for Economics & Peace
Trends in key Militarisation indicators
The fall in the size of armed forces now appears to be levelling off
Despite high spending by global superpowers, average military expenditure has declined
Weapons imports and exports have had a moderate but sustained increase
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
RATE
PER
100,000
PEOPLE
Armed Forces Rate
1.50
1.70
1.90
2.10
2.30
2.50
2.70
2.90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
OF
GDP
Military Expenditure
1.34
1.36
1.38
1.40
1.42
1.44
1.46
1.48
1.50
1.52
1.54
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
AVERAGE
SCORE
Weapons Imports

30. The Economic
Value of Peace
04.

31. Institute for Economics & Peace
Which is equivalent to
11.6%
of total world GDP
OR
$1942
per person
The economic impact of violence 2020
$1.496
TRILLION
Could be directed to
other economic activities
If the world decreased
violence by 10%...
$14.96
trillion
10% reduction is equivalent to size of Switzerland, Denmark and Ireland’s economies

32. Institute for Economics & Peace
Military expenditure accounts for over 40% of the total economic impact of violence.
Breakdown of the economic impact of violence
Military
expenditure, 42.9%
Internal security
expenditure, 31.3%
Private security
expenditure, 7.9%
Homicide, 6.7%
Suicide, 4.6%
Violent crime, 3.1% Conflict, 3.0%
Other, 0.6%
Source: IEP

33. Institute for Economics & Peace
Security spending has the largest economic impact in most regions
Composition of Economic Impact by Region
10%
17%
25%
35%
41% 43% 45%
54%
59%
36%
29%
31%
47%
48%
39%
41%
33%
30%
41%
35%
30%
16%
10%
14% 11%
13%
5%
12.2%
17.9%
13.3%
1.0% 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 0.3%
5.5%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Central
America And
Caribbean
sub-Saharan
Africa
South America Europe Asia-Pacific Russia and
Eurasia
South Asia North America MENA
PROPORTION
OF
REGIONAL
ECONOMIC
IMPACT
OF
VIOLENCE
Source: IEP
Military Internal and private security Violent crime, Homicide and Suicide Armed Conflict Other

34. Peace and
Perceptions of Risk
05.

35. Institute for Economics & Peace
The fear of violence is highest in South America and Southern Africa.
Proportion of people who cite crime, violence or terrorism
as their greatest threat to safety

36. Institute for Economics & Peace
Violence was the second most cited risk globally
What is the greatest risk to your safety?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Drugs, alcohol, or smoking
Food poisoning
Politics/political situation/corruption
Other transport-related accidents/injuries
Work-related accidents
Household accidents/injuries
Climate change or extreme weather
Economy-related
Financial
Other
Don't know
Health issue
Crime, violence or terrorism
Road-related accidents
PROPORTION OF RESPONDENTS
Source IEP/ Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll

37. Institute for Economics & Peace
Only 25% of people feel that the world was less safe in 2019 compared to 2014
Feelings of safety over time
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Don't know
Less safe
About as safe
More safe
PROPORTION OF RESPONDENTS
Source IEP/ Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll

38. Institute for Economics & Peace
Experience and fear of violence – Top 5 and Bottom 5 Countries
1.0%
3.1%
3.1%
4.0%
4.8%
53.9%
55.2%
56.1%
57.9%
63.3%
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Japan
Singapore
Poland
Zambia
Liberia
Lesotho
South Africa
Namibia
EXPERIENCE OF VIOLENCE
% who have experienced violence in the past two years
4.9%
7.9%
9.2%
9.4%
9.5%
73.9%
75.7%
76.4%
79.3%
82.7%
Singapore
Norway
Tajikistan
Lithuania
Uzbekistan
Lesotho
Malawi
Mauritius
South Africa
Brazil
FEAR OF VIOLENCE
% who are very worried about violence
Source IEP/ Lloyds Register World Foundation Risk Poll

39. Institute for Economics & Peace
Feelings of safety & risk– Top 5 and Bottom 5 Countries
5.5%
5.9%
8.7%
9.2%
9.3%
59.5%
73.7%
77.7%
79.1%
81.4%
China
UAE
Cambodia
Estonia
Singapore
Zambia
Venezuela
Afghanistan
Hong Kong
Lebanon
FEELINGS OF SAFETY
% who feel less safe than five years ago
1.0%
1.6%
2.1%
2.3%
2.3%
55.6%
56.3%
58.1%
63.3%
71.8%
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
China
Vietnam
Dom. Republic
Mexico
South Africa
Brazil
Afghanistan
GREATEST RISK
% who feel violence is the greatest risk to safety
Source IEP/ Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll

40. Institute for Economics & Peace
Perceptions of Risk by Region
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Russia and Eurasia
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
South Asia
MENA
Central America
sub-Saharan Africa
South America
Fear of Violence
Unclear Not worried Somewhat worried Very worried
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Asia-Pacific
Russia and Eurasia
North America
Europe
MENA
South Asia
sub-Saharan Africa
Central America
South America
Feelings of Safety
Unclear More safe About as safe Less safe
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Russia and Eurasia
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
South Asia
MENA
South America
Central America
sub-Saharan Africa
Experience of Violence
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Russia and Eurasia
Asia-Pacific
North America
Europe
MENA
South Asia
sub-Saharan Africa
Central America
South America
Violence as Greatest Risk

41. Institute for Economics & Peace
Predicting Changes in Peacefulness
90 per cent of countries with Positive Peace deficits of more than 50 places
in 2009 recorded substantial deteriorations by 2019
Countries with a Positive Peace ‘deficit’ are more likely to have falls in
peacefulness in future
Of the ten countries with the largest deteriorations in peacefulness between 2009 and
2019, seven had large Positive Peace deficits in 2009
The gap between Positive Peace and Negative Peace is a strong predictor of future
changes in peacefulness
However, they do need a shock to unsettle their current level of peace
Equatorial Guinea, Sierra Leone, Laos, Timor-Leste, Malawi and
Liberia have the largest Positive Peace Deficits in 2020

42. Institute for Economics & Peace
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