Global-Peace-Index-2021-3.pptx

Global
Peace
Index 2021
Overview & key findings

The Institute for Economics
and Peace is an independent,
not-for-profit think tank
dedicated to building a greater
understanding of the key
drivers of peace, as well as
identifying the economic
benefits that increased
peacefulness can deliver.

Institute for Economics & Peace
Institute for Economics and Peace
Research used extensively
by organisations, including
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Secretariat, World Bank and
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The Global Peace Index
99.7%
of world’s population
covered
15thyear
Now in its Ranks
163
countries
Using
23
Indicators weighed
on a 1-5 scale
Developed by the
Institute for
Economics and
Peace
Guided and
overseen by a
panel of
International
Experts

Including: intensity of
organized internal
conflicts, relations with
neighbouring countries
and number of deaths
from conflict
6
measures of
ongoing domestic
and international
conflict
Including: number
of refugees and
IDPs, impact of
terrorism, homicide
and incarceration
rates
10
measures of
societal safety
and security
Including: military
expenditure,
number of armed
service personnel,
ease of access to
small weapons
7
measures of
militarisation
The Global Peace Index Indicators

The Global Peac Index Indicators

2021 key highlights
73 countries deteriorated
87 countries became
more peaceful
The average level of global country
peacefulness has deteriorated by
0.07%
This is the ninth deterioration in
the last 13 years.
Deteriorations primarily driven by
changes in:
• Militarisation
• Military expenditure
• Safety and Security
Improvements were driven by
changes in:
• Ongoing conflict
• Internal conflict
• Terrorism impact

2021 highlights
Indicators with the largest deterorations in 2021 GPI
 Violent demonstrations – 3 times more countries fell as improved
 Political instability – twice as many countries fell as improved
 Militarization – 97 countries deteriorated
Indicators with the largest improvements in the 2021 GPI
 Deaths from internal conflict
 Number and intensity of internal conflicts
 Deaths from terrorism – 6th consecutive year of improvements

2021 highlights – continued
Iceland is the most peaceful country in the world
Ukraine and Iraq had the largest improvement
Middle East and North Africa had the largest regional improvement.
However, it remains the least peaceful region
Europe remains the most peaceful region, despite a deterioration in
political instability, mainly because of improvements in terrorism

2021 highlights - continued
Afghanistan remains the world’s least peaceful nation.
However, it recorded a small increase in peacefulness
North America had the largest regional deterioration, owing to
increases in violent demonstrations
Burkina Faso and Belarus recorded the largest deteriorations
Six of the nine GPI regions recorded deteriorations

10 most peaceful countries
DENMARK
Rank change: 2
3
NEW ZEALAND
Rank change: 1
2 SWITZERLAND
Rank change: 2
7
IRELAND
Rank change: 3
8
CANADA
Rank change: 3
10
CZECH REPUBLIC
Rank change: 1
9
AUSTRIA
Rank change: 2
6
SLOVENIA
Rank change: 5
5
PORTUGAL
Rank change: 2
4
ICELAND
Rank change:
1

10 least peaceful countries
AFGHANISTAN
Rank change:
163
SOUTH SUDAN
Rank change:
160
RUSSIA
Rank change:
154
LIBYA
Rank change: 1
156
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC
OF THE CONGO
Rank change: 1
157
CENTRAL AFRICA
REPUBLIC
Rank change: 1
155
SOMALIA
Rank change: 1
158
IRAQ
Rank change: 2
159
SYRIA
Rank change: 1
161
YEMEN
Rank change: 3
162

2021 regional overview
MENA
North America
North America recorded the largest
deterioration in 2021, with the
average level of peacefulness in
the region falling by 1.8 per cent
Europe remains the most
peaceful region in the world
and is home to eight of the ten
most peaceful countries
Europe
Despite recording the largest
improvement in peacefulness in
2021, MENA remains the least
peaceful region in the world
South Asia
One of three regions to record an
improvement in peacefulness, but
it remains the second least
peaceful region overall

IRAQ
RANK: 159
Rose 2 places
5 most improved countries
UKRAINE
RANK: 142
Rose 5 places
POLAND
RANK: 24
Rose 9 places
VIETNAM
RANK: 50
Rose 19 places
NORTH MACEDONIA
RANK: 40
Rose 11 places

5 most deteriorated countries
BURKINA FASO
RANK: 134
Fell 13 places
BELARUS
RANK: 117
Fell 19 places
AZERBAIJAN
RANK: 121
Fell 6 places
ZAMBIA
RANK: 71
Fell 24 places
HONDURAS
RANK: 124
Fell 8 places

Impact of COVID-19 on Peacefulness
Long-term impact of the pandemic on homicide, violent crime, suicide is
unclear.
Civil unrest increased considerably after an initial drop. There was a ten per
cent increase in violent demonstrations in 2020
While levels of violence fell in the early stages of the pandemic, most forms of violence
returned to pre-COVID levels
Political instability deteriorated in 46 countries. COVID-19 exacerbated
existing tensions in many countries
If poor economic conditions persist, likelihood of future civil unrest will
increase
There were 5,000 COVID related violent incidents in 2020

COVID-19 related violent incidents, January
2020 to April 2021
There were over 5,000 pandemic-related incidents during this period that involved
some form of violence.

countries
became less
peaceful
75
countries
became more
peaceful
Peace declined
2.00%
Since 2008
Improvements and deteriorations, 2008-2021
86

Peace since 2008
Peacefulness has declined year on year for nine of the last 13 years.
2.00
2.02
2.04
2.06
2.08
2.10
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
GPI
SCORE
OVERALL SCORE TREND
Less
Peaceful
->
<-
More
Peaceful
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
YOY % CHANGE

Trends in key Safety and Security indicators
Violent Demonstrations now at their highest level since the beginning of the index
Over 80 million people have now been forcibly displaced by violence
The average global homicide rate continues to fall
2.55
2.60
2.65
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.90
2.95
3.00
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
AVERAGE
SCORE
Violent Demonstrations
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
MILLIONS
OF
PEOPLE
Forcibly Displaced People
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
HOMICIDE
RATE
Homicide Rate

Trends in key Ongoing Conflict indicators
Battle Deaths continue to fall after peaking in 2014
Total conflicts fell in the past two years, but are 88% higher than 2010
The average intensity of internal conflict is still rising
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NUMBER
OF
DEATHS
Battle Deaths
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
ACTIVE
CONFLICTS
Total Conflicts
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
AVERAGE
INTENSITY
Intensity of Internal Conflict

Trends in key Militarisation indicators
The fall in the size of armed forces now appears to be levelling off
Despite high spending by global superpowers, average military expenditure has declined
Weapons imports and exports have had a moderate but sustained increase
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
RATE
PER
100,000
PEOPLE
Armed Forces Rate
1.50
1.70
1.90
2.10
2.30
2.50
2.70
2.90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
OF
GDP
Military Expenditure
1.34
1.36
1.38
1.40
1.42
1.44
1.46
1.48
1.50
1.52
1.54
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
AVERAGE
SCORE
Weapons Imports

The Economic
Value of Peace
04.

Which is equivalent to
11.6%
of total world GDP
OR
$1942
per person
The economic impact of violence 2020
$1.496
TRILLION
Could be directed to
other economic activities
If the world decreased
violence by 10%...
$14.96
trillion
10% reduction is equivalent to size of Switzerland, Denmark and Ireland’s economies

Peace and
Perceptions of Risk
05.

The fear of violence is highest in South America and Southern Africa.
Proportion of people who cite crime, violence or terrorism
as their greatest threat to safety

Violence was the second most cited risk globally
What is the greatest risk to your safety?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Drugs, alcohol, or smoking
Food poisoning
Politics/political situation/corruption
Other transport-related accidents/injuries
Work-related accidents
Household accidents/injuries
Climate change or extreme weather
Economy-related
Financial
Other
Don't know
Health issue
Crime, violence or terrorism
Road-related accidents
PROPORTION OF RESPONDENTS
Source IEP/ Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll

Experience and fear of violence – Top 5 and Bottom 5 Countries
1.0%
3.1%
3.1%
4.0%
4.8%
53.9%
55.2%
56.1%
57.9%
63.3%
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Japan
Singapore
Poland
Zambia
Liberia
Lesotho
South Africa
Namibia
EXPERIENCE OF VIOLENCE
% who have experienced violence in the past two years
4.9%
7.9%
9.2%
9.4%
9.5%
73.9%
75.7%
76.4%
79.3%
82.7%
Singapore
Norway
Tajikistan
Lithuania
Uzbekistan
Lesotho
Malawi
Mauritius
South Africa
Brazil
FEAR OF VIOLENCE
% who are very worried about violence
Source IEP/ Lloyds Register World Foundation Risk Poll

Feelings of safety & risk– Top 5 and Bottom 5 Countries
5.5%
5.9%
8.7%
9.2%
9.3%
59.5%
73.7%
77.7%
79.1%
81.4%
China
UAE
Cambodia
Estonia
Singapore
Zambia
Venezuela
Afghanistan
Hong Kong
Lebanon
FEELINGS OF SAFETY
% who feel less safe than five years ago
1.0%
1.6%
2.1%
2.3%
2.3%
55.6%
56.3%
58.1%
63.3%
71.8%
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
China
Vietnam
Dom. Republic
Mexico
South Africa
Brazil
Afghanistan
GREATEST RISK
% who feel violence is the greatest risk to safety
Source IEP/ Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll

Predicting Changes in Peacefulness
90 per cent of countries with Positive Peace deficits of more than 50 places
in 2009 recorded substantial deteriorations by 2019
Countries with a Positive Peace ‘deficit’ are more likely to have falls in
peacefulness in future
Of the ten countries with the largest deteriorations in peacefulness between 2009 and
2019, seven had large Positive Peace deficits in 2009
The gap between Positive Peace and Negative Peace is a strong predictor of future
changes in peacefulness
However, they do need a shock to unsettle their current level of peace
Equatorial Guinea, Sierra Leone, Laos, Timor-Leste, Malawi and
Liberia have the largest Positive Peace Deficits in 2020

Global-Peace-Index-2021-3.pptx

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