- The document provides a biography of Paul Young, a CPA and expert on geopolitics and its impact on business.
- It then outlines Young's agenda for discussing various geopolitical issues happening around the world and how they impact business, including events related to the UN, supply chain management, government roles, and specific countries.
- Key geopolitical risks to businesses in 2018 are identified as escalation on the Korean peninsula, cyber attacks, US protectionism, and assertive leadership in various countries.
Geo-Political Events and Business Impact - September 2018paul young cpa, cga
Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either domestically or internationally
Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both government as well as business
United Nations needs to return to its’ mandate of world peace including accountability and transparency when it comes to aid
Too many countries still have autocratic rules, especially in Asia, Africa and the Middle East
Liberals around the world are to busy coddling extremism as way to deflect it from happening in their country. The problem is radical extremism will never be defeated through hugs and kisses. The root cause of extremism comes back to radical beliefs of what their religion is telling them in terms of their own Caliphate.
Global protectionism is on the rise as USA is looking for fair trade deals
Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either domestically or internationally
Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both government as well as business
United Nations needs to return to its’ mandate of world peace including accountability and transparency when it comes to aid
Too many countries still have autocratic rules, especially in Asia, Africa and the Middle East
Liberals around the world are to busy coddling extremism as way to deflect it from happening in their country. The problem is radical extremism will never be defeated through hugs and kisses. The root cause of extremism comes back to radical beliefs of what their religion is telling them in terms of their own Caliphate.
The world can change on a dime depending on the party in power for each country along with government corruption. Not enough is being done by the UN as part of ensuring security and prosperity for its' member nations.
The world is heading into a period of the most instability since the cold war in the 1980s. Countries like Iran, China and India are growing in terms of size and power.
Geo-Political Events and Business Impact - September 2018paul young cpa, cga
Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either domestically or internationally
Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both government as well as business
United Nations needs to return to its’ mandate of world peace including accountability and transparency when it comes to aid
Too many countries still have autocratic rules, especially in Asia, Africa and the Middle East
Liberals around the world are to busy coddling extremism as way to deflect it from happening in their country. The problem is radical extremism will never be defeated through hugs and kisses. The root cause of extremism comes back to radical beliefs of what their religion is telling them in terms of their own Caliphate.
Global protectionism is on the rise as USA is looking for fair trade deals
Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either domestically or internationally
Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both government as well as business
United Nations needs to return to its’ mandate of world peace including accountability and transparency when it comes to aid
Too many countries still have autocratic rules, especially in Asia, Africa and the Middle East
Liberals around the world are to busy coddling extremism as way to deflect it from happening in their country. The problem is radical extremism will never be defeated through hugs and kisses. The root cause of extremism comes back to radical beliefs of what their religion is telling them in terms of their own Caliphate.
The world can change on a dime depending on the party in power for each country along with government corruption. Not enough is being done by the UN as part of ensuring security and prosperity for its' member nations.
The world is heading into a period of the most instability since the cold war in the 1980s. Countries like Iran, China and India are growing in terms of size and power.
Understanding Risks as part of development risk management best practices paul young cpa, cga
All levels of government and private sector continue to review their risk models as part of ensuring they take all steps to help mitigate risk-related issues
Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either domestically or internationally
Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both government as well as business
A lo largo de sus 16 páginas, este documento desglosa los factores amenazantes percibidos en varias tipologías (actores estatales externos, organizaciones extremistas violentas y organizaciones criminales transnacionales) y detalla a continuación cuál es el papel de las fuerzas armadas del país frente a cada uno de estos problemas, en virtud de la Estrategia Nacional de Defensa (NDS, por sus siglas en Inglés).
Foreign aid - Accountability and Transparency - July 2018paul young cpa, cga
UN mandate is to support developing countries through foreign aid. The problem is that much of the foreign aid never makes it to people as either it is caught up with UN administration or it goes to corrupt government.
The Covid-19 Emergency
- Do legal provisions or the Constitution allow the government to take more serious measures than a 21-day total lockdown if the pandemic worsens?
- How Kerala is showing the way
- Does stamping of forearms and pasting of quarantine notices on
residences violate human rights?
- The curse of the black market- The SAARC initiative on COVID -19 and why Pakistan is playing spoilsport
In the wake of ISIS’ decline in Syria and Iraq, the African Union warned in December 2017 that some 6,000 (former) ISIS fighters could return to the continent. This warning comes at a time when counterterrorism (CT) in Africa is starting to yield some positive dividends, especially in Western Africa. In the Lake Chad Basin Area, the Multinational Joint Task Force comprising of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Benin have succeeded in dispersing Boko Haram factions, and in putting the Islamist militants on the defensive. In the Sahel-Sahara, the G5-Sahel Joint Force, a regional response initiative made up of Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad, and buoyed by some 4,000 French troops and a plethora of security actors have unsettled the region’s various Islamist groups. In each of these cases, extremist groups have lost significant territorial and ideological control, and have resorted to sporadic attacks organised with little coordination. Returning ISIS fighters might however complicate and or reverse these CT efforts. This presentation looks at the ways in which ISIS’ decline and returning fighters may impact CT and de-radicalisation in Western Africa. It also provides some countermeasures for consideration by policy makers.
Henley Passport Index and Global Mobility Report 2019MYO AUNG Myanmar
https://www.henleypassportindex.com/assets/2019/HPI%20Global%20Mobility%20Report_Final_190104.pdf
Henley & Partners is the global leader in residence and citizenship planning. We advise wealthy individuals and their families with gaining residence and/or citizenship by assisting them to complete investments in their country of choice. We also have a thriving government advisory practice, in which we advise countries on assignments ranging from strategic consulting to assistance in the design and implementation of investment-related immigration programs. Each year, hundreds of wealthy individuals, families and their advisors rely on our expertise and experience in this area. Our highly qualified professionals work together as one team in over 30 offices worldwide. The concept of residence and citizenship planning was created by Henley & Partners in the 1990s and as globalization has expanded, residence and citizenship have become topics of significant interest among an increasing number of internationally mobile entrepreneurs and investors. We believe every person should have the control to define their future and experience the freedom and peace of mind that dual citizenship has to offer.
Poverty and Commercial Kidnapping in Post Amnesty Niger Deltaijtsrd
This study takes a look at the relationship between poverty and the ever increasing spate of commercial kidnapping in the post amnesty Niger Delta region. Kidnapping for ransom peaked in the region in 2006 with increased activities of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta MEND and other militant groups, prompting President Yar, Adua to prioritize Niger Delta issues in that Seven Points Agenda, which culminated in the granting of amnesty to repentant militants upon renunciation and return to obedience. In the attempt to answer the question on how poverty influences commercial kidnapping in the Niger Delta region this study deployed the relative deprivation theory as a tool of analysis. The nexus between poverty and commercial kidnapping was established as some other causative factors that influences the menace were noted, including poverty as the chief culprit, unemployment, drug addiction,, cultism and general insecurity in the area. The paper therefore recommended amongst others, poverty alleviation programmes, proactive community policing, expansion of the amnesty programme to accommodate non militant youths in the region and general socio economic and infrastructural development as a panacea for the reduction of crime and criminality. Diri, Benjamin B | Tamunosisi Gogo Jaja "Poverty and Commercial Kidnapping in Post Amnesty Niger Delta" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-1 , December 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38260.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/political-science/38260/poverty-and-commercial-kidnapping-in-post-amnesty-niger-delta/diri-benjamin-b
The refugee crisis: why we need to speak about corruption?MYO AUNG Myanmar
http://www.transparency.org/news/feature/the_refugee_crisis_why_we_need_to_speak_about_corruption
The refugee crisis: why we need to speak about corruption
Instability, corruption and a lack of good governance is a major cause of why people choose to risk everything and travel to Europe in many countries across the world. Therefore, aid and development policies must address these issues in the long term. If we want to ensure that this crisis never happens again, tackling corruption must be counted among the policy solutions.
All these efforts require international cooperation. The international community should look into the best ways to limit the access of corrupt and criminal smuggling groups to vulnerable refugees. There are several ways that this cooperation can take place, such as information gathering and data sharing across borders.
We live in an era of globalisation as such business needs to expand in order to grow their business beyond their domestic market.
The problem for business is dealing with various governments around the world as part of getting access to new markets.
The world bank have said that corruption cost the world economy well over 1.5 trillion dollars on annual basis.
Understanding Risks as part of development risk management best practices paul young cpa, cga
All levels of government and private sector continue to review their risk models as part of ensuring they take all steps to help mitigate risk-related issues
Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either domestically or internationally
Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both government as well as business
A lo largo de sus 16 páginas, este documento desglosa los factores amenazantes percibidos en varias tipologías (actores estatales externos, organizaciones extremistas violentas y organizaciones criminales transnacionales) y detalla a continuación cuál es el papel de las fuerzas armadas del país frente a cada uno de estos problemas, en virtud de la Estrategia Nacional de Defensa (NDS, por sus siglas en Inglés).
Foreign aid - Accountability and Transparency - July 2018paul young cpa, cga
UN mandate is to support developing countries through foreign aid. The problem is that much of the foreign aid never makes it to people as either it is caught up with UN administration or it goes to corrupt government.
The Covid-19 Emergency
- Do legal provisions or the Constitution allow the government to take more serious measures than a 21-day total lockdown if the pandemic worsens?
- How Kerala is showing the way
- Does stamping of forearms and pasting of quarantine notices on
residences violate human rights?
- The curse of the black market- The SAARC initiative on COVID -19 and why Pakistan is playing spoilsport
In the wake of ISIS’ decline in Syria and Iraq, the African Union warned in December 2017 that some 6,000 (former) ISIS fighters could return to the continent. This warning comes at a time when counterterrorism (CT) in Africa is starting to yield some positive dividends, especially in Western Africa. In the Lake Chad Basin Area, the Multinational Joint Task Force comprising of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Benin have succeeded in dispersing Boko Haram factions, and in putting the Islamist militants on the defensive. In the Sahel-Sahara, the G5-Sahel Joint Force, a regional response initiative made up of Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad, and buoyed by some 4,000 French troops and a plethora of security actors have unsettled the region’s various Islamist groups. In each of these cases, extremist groups have lost significant territorial and ideological control, and have resorted to sporadic attacks organised with little coordination. Returning ISIS fighters might however complicate and or reverse these CT efforts. This presentation looks at the ways in which ISIS’ decline and returning fighters may impact CT and de-radicalisation in Western Africa. It also provides some countermeasures for consideration by policy makers.
Henley Passport Index and Global Mobility Report 2019MYO AUNG Myanmar
https://www.henleypassportindex.com/assets/2019/HPI%20Global%20Mobility%20Report_Final_190104.pdf
Henley & Partners is the global leader in residence and citizenship planning. We advise wealthy individuals and their families with gaining residence and/or citizenship by assisting them to complete investments in their country of choice. We also have a thriving government advisory practice, in which we advise countries on assignments ranging from strategic consulting to assistance in the design and implementation of investment-related immigration programs. Each year, hundreds of wealthy individuals, families and their advisors rely on our expertise and experience in this area. Our highly qualified professionals work together as one team in over 30 offices worldwide. The concept of residence and citizenship planning was created by Henley & Partners in the 1990s and as globalization has expanded, residence and citizenship have become topics of significant interest among an increasing number of internationally mobile entrepreneurs and investors. We believe every person should have the control to define their future and experience the freedom and peace of mind that dual citizenship has to offer.
Poverty and Commercial Kidnapping in Post Amnesty Niger Deltaijtsrd
This study takes a look at the relationship between poverty and the ever increasing spate of commercial kidnapping in the post amnesty Niger Delta region. Kidnapping for ransom peaked in the region in 2006 with increased activities of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta MEND and other militant groups, prompting President Yar, Adua to prioritize Niger Delta issues in that Seven Points Agenda, which culminated in the granting of amnesty to repentant militants upon renunciation and return to obedience. In the attempt to answer the question on how poverty influences commercial kidnapping in the Niger Delta region this study deployed the relative deprivation theory as a tool of analysis. The nexus between poverty and commercial kidnapping was established as some other causative factors that influences the menace were noted, including poverty as the chief culprit, unemployment, drug addiction,, cultism and general insecurity in the area. The paper therefore recommended amongst others, poverty alleviation programmes, proactive community policing, expansion of the amnesty programme to accommodate non militant youths in the region and general socio economic and infrastructural development as a panacea for the reduction of crime and criminality. Diri, Benjamin B | Tamunosisi Gogo Jaja "Poverty and Commercial Kidnapping in Post Amnesty Niger Delta" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-1 , December 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38260.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/political-science/38260/poverty-and-commercial-kidnapping-in-post-amnesty-niger-delta/diri-benjamin-b
The refugee crisis: why we need to speak about corruption?MYO AUNG Myanmar
http://www.transparency.org/news/feature/the_refugee_crisis_why_we_need_to_speak_about_corruption
The refugee crisis: why we need to speak about corruption
Instability, corruption and a lack of good governance is a major cause of why people choose to risk everything and travel to Europe in many countries across the world. Therefore, aid and development policies must address these issues in the long term. If we want to ensure that this crisis never happens again, tackling corruption must be counted among the policy solutions.
All these efforts require international cooperation. The international community should look into the best ways to limit the access of corrupt and criminal smuggling groups to vulnerable refugees. There are several ways that this cooperation can take place, such as information gathering and data sharing across borders.
We live in an era of globalisation as such business needs to expand in order to grow their business beyond their domestic market.
The problem for business is dealing with various governments around the world as part of getting access to new markets.
The world bank have said that corruption cost the world economy well over 1.5 trillion dollars on annual basis.
Terrorism - War Crimes - ISIS and other Groups - February 2019paul young cpa, cga
Many groups go into hiding when they are either defeated or stand no chance to win
BAATH Party went into hiding after the second invasion
Taliban Party went into hiding and now is taken part in attacks on Afghanistan
Many groups have cells. It takes money and time to monitor these cells either within a country or globally
It is difficult to de-radicalised people as they follow the scripts send by their leaders
Many groups have said they will attack people as they sleep
Development Cooperation post COVID-19: Calling for a New Type of Global Solid...Francois Stepman
Presentation by Zhang Chuanhong, China Institute for South-South Cooperation in Agriculture, Beijing, China, 9 April 2020. UNDP Seoul Policy Centre (USPC) Webinar Series. Post-COVID-19: Implications for International (Development) Cooperation
Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either domestically or internationally
Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both government as well as business
A case for an International Anti-Corruption CourtDr Lendy Spires
The Case for an International Anti-Corruption Court 2 COMBATING GRAND CORRUPTION: THE NEED FOR A NEW INTERNATIONAL APPROACH United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan rightly wrote in 2004 that: Corruption is an insidious plague that has a wide range of corrosive effects on societies. It undermines democracy and the rule of law, leads to violations of human rights, distorts markets, erodes the quality of life and allows organized crime, terrorism and other threats to human security to flourish.2 However, this rhetoric contrasts starkly with the reality of the ineffective international efforts to combat corruption. The experience of the United States provides a model for a new international approach to combating corruption. Public corruption exists in the United States. State and local officials, particularly, at times abuse their public offices for private gain. However, in contrast to many other nations, the United States is serious about combating corruption. In the United States, we do not rely on elected state prosecutors to do this because they are often part of the political establishment that must be challenged and, in any event, lack the necessary legal authority and resources. Rather, we rely primarily on federal investigators, prosecutors, and courts to pursue and punish corrupt state and local officials. In the United States, sometimes acting on information provided by private parties who want to remain anonymous, independent media often expose corruption. Federal investigators are authorized to conduct undercover operations and secretly record conversations, and are adept at unraveling complicated financial transactions.
Why Islamic Common Market if not an Islamic Union is necessarySUN&FZ Associates
It is challenging but not impossible!
Economic Power of any country is its real power in today’s world. Every other tangible and intangible element of national power without substantive economic power is worthless in international relations and global power politics.
Expertise in commercial diplomacy is an essential pre-requisite to configure a country’s tangible and intangible elements of national power. This is exactly what the rulers of the emerging economies have done to break the barriers of demographic constraints and to get out of the debt trap.
The world’s richest natural resource and human talent market with close to more than two billion potential consumers is a reasonably promising consumer community to start thinking of and working on!
Similar to Geo-Political events and their impact on Business (10)
Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
Blog – What is next for the Mining Sector – September 2023
The mining sector provides critical material that support solar, wind, and lithium-ion batteries as part of the green transition. https://www.iea.org/news/critical-minerals-market-sees-unprecedented-growth-as-clean-energy-demand-drives-strong-increase-in-investment
The mining sector products play a key role with the global GDP - https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/global-mining-industry-value-was-69-of-world-gdp-last-year-china-says
Mining practices need to be sustainable including following all ESG policies - https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-monitor-sustainable-mining-practices
Other links and sources –
Lithium Supply and Price - https://zbr.com.mx/en/sin-categoria-es/lithium-prices-fall-44-in-china-due-to-lack-of-demand/138168/
Cobalt - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mahmut-karada%C5%9F-a2b7a5151_china-exportrestrictions-gallium-activity-7082603182589157376-Zrty/?trk=public_profile_like_view
Nickel https://www.eureporter.co/business/2023/09/15/stanislav-kondrashov-from-telf-ag-nickel-prices-outlook-remains-positive/
Iron-ore - https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263584/sgx-iron-ore-set-for-best-week-in-3-months
TD Bank / Metals - https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/setting-the-stage-for-gold-outlook
Biodiversity / Mining - https://worldcrunch.com/green/lithium-green-energy-argentina-indigenous
ESG - https://iriscarbon.com/the-added-value-of-integrated-esg-reporting-a-threefold-framework/
Blog – Manufacturing Shipments and Orders – The United States – August 2023
Summary:
New orders for manufacturing technology in the United States totaled $353.9 million in July 2023, as per the latest report by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This figure marked a 12.4% decline from June 2023 but remained only 10.5% lower than July 2022. Year-to-date orders amounted to $2.83 billion, reflecting a 12.7% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
Douglas K. Woods, President of AMT, noted that July is typically a slower month for manufacturing technology orders, so a slight drop was expected. However, he pointed out a notable trend: over the last two months, the year-to-date order gap has narrowed during historically slow periods. While job shops have seen decreased orders, other industries that benefited from reshoring or government investments have helped fill the gap.
Among specific sectors, job shops, the largest customer segment, placed their lowest total monthly orders since August 2020. In contrast, metal valve manufacturers recorded their third-highest monthly order value on record, last seen in September 2018, making up nearly 5% of the total manufacturing technology order value for July 2023. Manufacturers of motor vehicle transmissions continued to order machinery at an elevated pace. However, the aerospace industry continued to order below its early 2022 peaks, with hopes that recent projects like the federal government's $1.5 billion investment in communications satellites might reverse this trend.
Source: https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/september/u.s.-manufacturing-technology-orders-dip-in-july-but-show-resilience-amid-economic-uncertainty
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 15 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Analysis and Commentary – Stock Market – WE September 15 2023
Summary:
Stocks fell Friday as investors wrap up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 288.87 points to close out Friday and the week at 34,618.24. At its lows, it completely wiped out Thursday's 332-point rally.
The S&P 500 index sank 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to 4,450.32.
The NASDAQ index plunged 217.72 points, or 1.6%, to 13,708.33.
The Dow held onto a winning week. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed out the week with losses.
Information technology was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, down nearly 2%. Adobe shares fell more than 4% even after the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Shares of Arm Holdings were lower one day after its successful public debut.
Auto stocks General Motors and Stellantis N.V. were higher Friday, while Ford Motor was about flat. Thousands of members of the United Auto Workers went on strike after failing to reach a deal with the automakers Thursday night.
Elsewhere, Lennar shares slid 3%. The home construction firm posted third-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines.
On the economic front, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in
September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020.
Electricity Analysis - Canada and the OECD - June 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Over three-quarters of the world’s total coal-generated electricity is consumed in just three countries. China is the top user of coal, making up 53.3% of global coal demand, followed by India at 13.6%, and the U.S. at 8.9%.
Burning coal—for electricity, as well as metallurgy and cement production—is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, its use in electricity generation has actually grown 91.2% since 1997, the year when the first global climate agreement was signed in Kyoto, Japan.
However, even as non-renewables enjoy their time in the sun, their days could be numbered.
In 2022, renewables, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, represented 14.4% of total electricity generation with an extraordinary annual growth rate of 14.7%, driven by big gains in solar and wind. Non-renewables, by contrast, only managed an anemic 0.4%.
The authors of the Statistical Review do not include hydroelectric in their renewable calculations, even though many others, including the International Energy Agency, consider it a “well-established renewable power technology.”
With hydroelectric moved into the renewable column, together they accounted for over 29.3% of all electricity generated in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%.
Source - https://energynow.ca/2023/09/infographic-what-electricity-sources-power-the-world-see-them-here-visual-capitalist/
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 9 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
What did the markets tell us this week?
1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world.
2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets.
3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies.
4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns.
5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia.
6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc
7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues.
8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing
9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain.
10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector.
11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.
Global (Mining Oil and Gas Forestry and Agriculture) Analysis and Commentary ...paul young cpa, cga
The mining, oil, gas, agriculture, forestry, and mining continue to face environmental, social, and governance policy review including reporting of key metrics as part of ESG reporting cycle.
There is more focus on profitability and investment returns as part of the integrated planning and reporting cycle.
Summary:
The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift.
China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter.
Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn.
Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2
Additional sources and links:
Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries
Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html
Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956
Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply
Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/
Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/
ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules
Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/
Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/
Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html
What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.
All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
What is the point of small housing associations.pptxPaul Smith
Given the small scale of housing associations and their relative high cost per home what is the point of them and how do we justify their continued existance
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
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Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
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Canadian Immigration Tracker March 2024 - Key SlidesAndrew Griffith
Highlights
Permanent Residents decrease along with percentage of TR2PR decline to 52 percent of all Permanent Residents.
March asylum claim data not issued as of May 27 (unusually late). Irregular arrivals remain very small.
Study permit applications experiencing sharp decrease as a result of announced caps over 50 percent compared to February.
Citizenship numbers remain stable.
Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.
A process server is a authorized person for delivering legal documents, such as summons, complaints, subpoenas, and other court papers, to peoples involved in legal proceedings.
2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• Academia
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com
3. SUMMARY
• Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either domestically or
internationally
• Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both
government as well as business
• United Nations needs to return to its’ mandate of world peace including accountability and transparency
when it comes to aid
• Too many countries still have autocratic rules, especially in Asia, Africa and the Middle East
• Liberals around the world are to busy coddling extremism as way to deflect it from happening in their country.
The problem is radical extremism will never be defeated through hugs and kisses. The root cause of extremism
comes back to radical beliefs of what their religion is telling them in terms of their own Caliphate.
• Global protectionism is on the rise as USA is looking for fair trade deals
4. AGENDA
• What are Geopolitical events?
• What is going with the United Nations?
• Supply Chain Management Integrated
• Government Role
• EU and Hungary
• Issues
• North Korea
• Qatar
• Iran
• Yemen
• Syria
• Saudi Arabia
• Business Role
• 2018 Key Risk Areas - Geopolitical
5. WHAT ARE GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS?
Geopolitics is a method of studying foreign policy to understand,
explain and predict international political behavior through
geographical variables. These include area studies, climate,
topography, demography, natural resources, and applied science of the
region being evaluated
Source - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitics
6. WHAT IS GOING WITH UNITED NATIONS?
UN does little to enforce oversight when it comes to foreign aid – Here are a few examples:
The United Nations is losing staggering sums to corruption, mismanagement and bad decision-making ”
http://nationalpost.com/opinion/geoffrey-clarfield-the-united-nations-is-losing-staggering-sums-to-corruption-mismanagement-
and-bad-decision-making “
Poland - All the funding to UN never got PM No Ethics a seat on the security council -
http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/310011,Poland-chosen-to-join-UN-Security-Council
UN and corruption - https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/how-corrupt-is-the-united-nations/
“The cost of corruption to society is enormous. In its 2017 report, Global Financial Integrity estimates that illicit financia l
flows (IFFs) in 2014 alone ranged from US$1.4 trillion to $2.5 trillion. The World Economic Forum estimates that the cost
of corruption today equals more than 5 percent of global GDP ($2.6
trillion).”http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/blog/2017/fighting-corruption-for-global-peace--development-and-
security.html
Hamas/Foreign Aid - http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/21183/
Somalia - https://fee.org/articles/how-foreign-aid-hurts-famine-relief-in-somalia/
The bottom line is the UN has failed to ensure foreign aid is getting to the most needed people in the world and/or stopping of civil
wars like Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/foreign-aid-transparency-and-accountability-october-2017
7. SUPPLY CHAIN INTEGRATION
• Globalization of Supply Chain
• Business exposure to areas
like climate change or
Governmental changes or
infrastructure or labor rates or
shipping rates or investment
rules or taxation or
environment regulations
8. GOVERNMENTAL ROLE
• Governmental Structure
• Democracy
• Kingdom
• Socialism
• Government sets policies
• Taxation
• Regulations
• Investment in infrastructure
• Labor and Environmental Laws
• FIPA and Trade Agreements
9. BUSINESS ROLE
• Business needs to expand to new market
• Business needs to follow laws and regulation in the countries they do business
10. 2018 – KEY GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/risk-and-compliance/top-5-global-risks-exporting-
companies-face-2018-206385/
1. North Korea escalation: War on the Korean peninsula is unlikely, but while the paths of escalation are
clear, de-escalation is harder to plot. The search is on for the least bad option. The risks of miscalculation
and accidental escalation are the highest they’ve been since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un assumed
power.
2. Large-scale cyber attacks against infrastructure: 2017 was the year of major but random disruptive
attacks. 2018 could see the likes of WannaCry, NotPetya and BadRabbit recur, but in a more powerful,
targeted and disruptive manner. National infrastructure systems are particularly at risk.
3. US gets protectionist: Low likelihood, high impact, but the threat is there: in a year of mid-term elections,
NAFTA negotiations fail to make enough headway, Donald Trump pulls the US out of NAFTA and the WTO,
and goes after China on trade, causing profound disruption to international commerce.
4. Regional rivalries in the Middle East: Ambitious Saudi Arabia and assertive Iran will not go to war, but
across the region their rivalry will inform and inflame conflicts and enmities in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and
Yemen and between Israel and the Palestinian Territories.
5. Personalised leadership: Astride the business risk landscape is a collection of assertive world leaders
who rely heavily on nationalism and, to varying degrees, populism. Prone to capricious decision-making,
they find foreign companies convenient targets. More than ever, knowing the mind of the person at the top
is essential.
11. HUNGARY VS EU
The move saw some members of the European People’s Party bloc — of which Orban’s Fidesz movement is a
member — vote against their ally in Budapest.
Orban has for years deflected much of the international condemnation of Hungary’s electoral system, media
freedoms, independence of the judiciary, mistreatment of asylum-seekers and refugees and limits on the
functioning of non-governmental organizations.
12. IRAN
Source - http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/30/world/iran-protests-
issues/index.html
"The government is viewed as highly
corrupt, increasing inequality is seen by
the population as really a form of
injustice," he said, adding "this was
supposed to be a system that delivered
justice to the people after the revolution
of 1979 and it has failed."
Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the
Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, said there's also a push to
secure equal rights for women.
Nader said women in Iran have been
fighting for decades for equal rights, but
especially in the last few years, such
efforts have become stronger.
"Women in Iran are highly educated.
They are involved in the workforce,
arguably more so than any other country
in the Middle East, and they are
continually suppressed. This is part of
their fight to gain their freedom and their
rights," he said.
Washington has imposed unilateral sanctions on five Iranian companies linked to Tehran’s ballistic
missile program.
“The Iranian people are rising up in over 79 locations throughout the country,” Haley told the
council.
“It is a powerful exhibition of brave people who have become so fed up with their oppressive
government that they are willing to risk their lives in protest.”
In this Feb. 13, 2017 file photo, Gholamali Khoshroo, Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations,
speaks at a UN Security Council meeting at UN headquarters. (AP Photo /Mark Lennihan)
Russia’s envoy shot back that if the US view holds, the council should have also discussed the
2014 unrest in Ferguson, Missouri over the police shooting of a black teenager or the US
crackdown on the Occupy Wall Street movement.
China also described the meeting as meddling in Iran’s affairs, while Ethiopia, Kuwait and Sweden
expressed reservations about the discussion.
Britain and France reiterated that Iran must respect the rights of protesters, but French
Ambassador Francois Delattre said the “events of the past days do not constitute a threat to
peace and international security.”
Iran’s Ambassador Gholamali Khoshroo slammed the meeting as a “farce” and a “waste of time”
and said the council should instead focus on addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the war
in Yemen.
Source - http://www.france24.com/en/20180106-un-security-council-divided-over-iran-protests
or https://www.timesofisrael.com/divided-un-security-council-meets-on-iran-protests/
UNITED NATIONS
13. NORTH KOREA AND THE WORLD
Source - http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/05/asia/north-korea-un-sanctions/index.html
14. QATAR AND MIDDLE EAST
Source - https://seekingalpha.com/news/3271472-arab-nations-sever-ties-qatar?ifp=0
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/05/middleeast/saudi-bahrain-egypt-uae-qatar-
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have broken off relations with
Qatar, in the worst diplomatic crisis to hit Gulf Arab states in decades.
The three Gulf countries and Egypt have accused Qatar of supporting terrorism and
destabilizing the region. Qatar -- which shares its only land border with Saudi Arabia -- has
rejected the accusations calling them "unjustified" and "baseless".
15. YEMEN CIVIL WAR
Source - https://news.sky.com/story/the-yemen-civil-war-needs-to-end-for-global-security-but-
there-is-little-hope-11237355
Yemen is worse than a failed state; it is a country in complete chaos and it is impossible to see
a realistic end to the vicious civil war that has created the world's worst humanitarian crisis
and sliced the country four ways.
Sana'a, the capital, is controlled by Houthi rebels. This rebel group emerged from the northern
mountains in 2014 to govern a city of around two million people.
Iran has sent arms and fighters to back the Houthis; Saudi Arabia in turn has thrown its support
behind the internationally recognised government and carried out sustained bombing of Sana'a,
drawing worldwide criticism because of the high number of civilian deaths.
Airstrikes on Sana'a seem to have lessened, perhaps in recognition that Riyadh's reputation was
taking a battering too, but Saudi jets continue to target towns and villages in the north of the country,
which goes largely undocumented.
16. SYRIA CIVIL WAR
Why was there a civil war?
Syria civil war was also about natural gas which has never been discussed much with MSM - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-10/competing-gas-
pipelines-are-fueling-syrian-war-migrant-crisis “
“Assad refused to sign a proposed agreement with Qatar and Turkey that would run a pipeline from the latter’s North field, contiguous with Iran’s South
Pars field, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey, with a view to supply European markets – albeit crucially bypassing Russia. Assad’s
rationale was ‘to protect the interests of [his] Russian ally, which is Europe’s largest natural gas supplier”
What’s next for Syria?
• Rebuilding - http://www.middleeasteye.net/essays/after-war-who-is-going-pay-syria-reconstruction-russia-iran-assad-china-871238355 “Most
estimates range from $100bn to $350bn, with some as high as $1 trillion. Jihad Yazigi, editor of independent financial paper Syria Report, puts the sum
at the lower end of the range. “The World Bank and UN estimate it will need $100bn to repair what has been destroyed, with more needed to get Syria
back on track.”
• Who will help? Unless there are major policy U-turns by the EU, the US and Turkey towards the Assad government then Syria is not going to get the
tens of billions of dollars needed to get the country back on its feet. "The narrative that billions [of dollars] will come is wishful thinking," said Kattan.
Instead, Syria will have to rely on small-scale investments and infrastructure developments to push itself along. Reconstruction will only be a long-term
project – and that is only if Damascus eventually develops a strategy. Alam said: "It will be small investments and a gradual regeneration of businesses.
No game-changers, but it will keep the local economy going.“
• Syria is approaching countries like China, Iran and Russia for help in terms securing funding to re-build infrastructure -
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2121552/syria-courts-china-rebuilding-push-after-fall-islamic
Issues with Assad:
• Chemical weapons used suppressed rebels - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42944033
• Assad needs to replaced with democratic elections - https://www.rappler.com/world/regions/middle-east/195186-
turkey-says-assad-must-go-some-point
• The problem with Syria are fractions, i.e. Kurds, Yazidis, Christians and Arabs - https://theconversation.com/stakes-
are-high-as-turkey-russia-and-the-us-tussle-over-the-future-of-syria-90454
17. SAUDI ARABIA
• “There will be "severe punishment" for Saudi Arabia if it turns out that missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi was
killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, President Trump said in a 60 Minutes interview that will air on Sunday. But
he does not want to to block military sales to kingdom. "I don't want to hurt jobs... I don't want to lose an order like
that,” he said, singling out Boeing (NYSE:BA), Lockheed (NYSE:LMT) and Raytheon (NYSE:RTN). "And you know what,
there are other ways of punishing.” - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/saudi-arabia-says-respond-economic-sanctions-
spa-112824051.html
• Saudi Arabia continues to suppressed freedom of speech - https://www.businessinsider.com/timeline-of-canada-
saudi-arabia-diplomatic-feud-over-human-rights-2018-8
• It might be time to remove countries like Saudi Arabia from the UN Human Rights Council -
https://www.ohchr.org/en/hrbodies/hrc/pages/currentmembers.aspx
18. CANADA / ISIS It is amazing how you can search out for people that share your view when it comes to ISIL threat. Goodale did say
on TV that he did not think you re-habilitate ISIL soldiers, so what changed?
http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/malcolm-trudeaus-de-radicalization-approach-is-dangerous
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/rise-of-extremism-in-2017-should-be-a-wakeup-call-for-canada-1.3706645
It is amazing the government says they are concerned for the safety of Canadians and yet says little on how it will
handle the 60 so called ISIS fighters. Here is information on ISIS:
1. http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/01/americas/edmonton-vehicle-attacks-investigation/index.html - ISIS attack
on a police officer
2. LPC defeats motion on ISIS - https://pamelageller.com/2017/12/trudeua-liberals-support-isis.html/
3. Motion on LPC plans to de-radicalized ISIS -
https://www.facebook.com/GlobalNews/videos/1616460011735091/
4. ISIS - https://youtu.be/bGcyuY_pBLM
5. Gender https://www.facebook.com/michellerempelmp/videos/1629422210450425/
6. Trudeau and Terrorist - https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/09/29/canadian-suspect-in-terror-
probe-took-selfie-with-justin-trudeau.html
7. Trudeau and lack of respect for Canadians - https://www.spencerfernando.com/2017/11/30/trudeau-show-
emotion-defending-people-hate-canada/
8. Deletion of records -
https://www.therebel.media/trudeau_has_rcmp_delete_5_000_intelligence_records_on_muslim_migrants
9. Radicalization - https://www.facebook.com/CBCPolitics/videos/1875219699173523/
10. Goodale again is blaming Harper -
https://www.facebook.com/michellerempelmp/videos/1622101751182471/
11. Public Safety is not tracking when intervention is used for radicals -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/deradicalization-canada-isis-fighters-program-1.4414999?cmp=news-
digests-canada-and-world-morning
““Mr. Speaker, the Conservative Party learned
nothing from the last election and the lessons
Canadians taught them. They ran an election on
snitch lines against Muslims, they ran an election
on Islamophobia and division, and still they play
the same games, trying to scare Canadians. The
fact is we always focus on the security of
Canadians, and we always will. They play the
politics of fear, and Canadians reject that.”
http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/furey-
trudeau-labels-legit-terrorism-questions-as-
islamophobia
19. RISK MANAGEMENT
• More and more companies include risk management as part of the reporting