Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either domestically or internationally Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both government as well as business

1. GEOPOLITICS AND THE
IMPACT TO BUSINESS -
JANUARY 2018
BY: PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGA
DECEMBER 9, 2018

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• Academia
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. SUMMARY
• Business relies on government as part of setting policies that allow business to invest either
domestically or internationally
• Countries require FDI as part of supporting their economy as such geopolitics can drive risks to both
government as well as business

4. AGENDA
• What are Geopolitical events?
• Supply Chain Management Integrated
• Government Role
• Issues
• North Korea
• Qatar
• Iran
• Business Role
• 2018 Key Risk Areas - Geopolitical

5. WHAT ARE GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS?
Geopolitics is a method of studying foreign policy to understand,
explain and predict international political behavior through
geographical variables. These include area studies, climate,
topography, demography, natural resources, and applied science of the
region being evaluated
Source - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitics

6. SUPPLY CHAIN INTEGRATION
• Globalization of Supply Chain
• Business exposure to areas
like climate change or
Governmental changes or
infrastructure or labor rates or
shipping rates or investment
rules or taxation or
environment regulations

7. GOVERNMENTAL ROLE
• Governmental Structure
• Democracy
• Kingdom
• Socialism
• Government sets policies
• Taxation
• Regulations
• Investment in infrastructure
• Labor and Environmental Laws
• FIPA and Trade Agreements

8. BUSINESS ROLE
• Business needs to expand to new market
• Business needs to follow laws and regulation in the countries they do business

9. 2018 – KEY GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/risk-and-compliance/top-5-global-risks-exporting-
companies-face-2018-206385/
1. North Korea escalation: War on the Korean peninsula is unlikely, but while the paths of escalation are
clear, de-escalation is harder to plot. The search is on for the least bad option. The risks of miscalculation
and accidental escalation are the highest they’ve been since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un assumed
power.
2. Large-scale cyber attacks against infrastructure: 2017 was the year of major but random disruptive
attacks. 2018 could see the likes of WannaCry, NotPetya and BadRabbit recur, but in a more powerful,
targeted and disruptive manner. National infrastructure systems are particularly at risk.
3. US gets protectionist: Low likelihood, high impact, but the threat is there: in a year of mid-term elections,
NAFTA negotiations fail to make enough headway, Donald Trump pulls the US out of NAFTA and the WTO,
and goes after China on trade, causing profound disruption to international commerce.
4. Regional rivalries in the Middle East: Ambitious Saudi Arabia and assertive Iran will not go to war, but
across the region their rivalry will inform and inflame conflicts and enmities in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and
Yemen and between Israel and the Palestinian Territories.
5. Personalised leadership: Astride the business risk landscape is a collection of assertive world leaders
who rely heavily on nationalism and, to varying degrees, populism. Prone to capricious decision-making,
they find foreign companies convenient targets. More than ever, knowing the mind of the person at the top
is essential.

10. IRAN
Source - http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/30/world/iran-protests-
issues/index.html
"The government is viewed as highly
corrupt, increasing inequality is seen by
the population as really a form of
injustice," he said, adding "this was
supposed to be a system that delivered
justice to the people after the revolution
of 1979 and it has failed."
Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the
Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, said there's also a push to
secure equal rights for women.
Nader said women in Iran have been
fighting for decades for equal rights, but
especially in the last few years, such
efforts have become stronger.
"Women in Iran are highly educated.
They are involved in the workforce,
arguably more so than any other country
in the Middle East, and they are
continually suppressed. This is part of
their fight to gain their freedom and their
rights," he said.
Washington has imposed unilateral sanctions on five Iranian companies linked to Tehran’s ballistic
missile program.
“The Iranian people are rising up in over 79 locations throughout the country,” Haley told the
council.
“It is a powerful exhibition of brave people who have become so fed up with their oppressive
government that they are willing to risk their lives in protest.”
In this Feb. 13, 2017 file photo, Gholamali Khoshroo, Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations,
speaks at a UN Security Council meeting at UN headquarters. (AP Photo /Mark Lennihan)
Russia’s envoy shot back that if the US view holds, the council should have also discussed the
2014 unrest in Ferguson, Missouri over the police shooting of a black teenager or the US
crackdown on the Occupy Wall Street movement.
China also described the meeting as meddling in Iran’s affairs, while Ethiopia, Kuwait and Sweden
expressed reservations about the discussion.
Britain and France reiterated that Iran must respect the rights of protesters, but French
Ambassador Francois Delattre said the “events of the past days do not constitute a threat to
peace and international security.”
Iran’s Ambassador Gholamali Khoshroo slammed the meeting as a “farce” and a “waste of time”
and said the council should instead focus on addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the war
in Yemen.
Source - http://www.france24.com/en/20180106-un-security-council-divided-over-iran-protests
or https://www.timesofisrael.com/divided-un-security-council-meets-on-iran-protests/
UNITED NATIONS

11. QATAR AND MIDDLE EAST
Source - https://seekingalpha.com/news/3271472-arab-nations-sever-ties-qatar?ifp=0
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/05/middleeast/saudi-bahrain-egypt-uae-qatar-
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have broken off relations with
Qatar, in the worst diplomatic crisis to hit Gulf Arab states in decades.
The three Gulf countries and Egypt have accused Qatar of supporting terrorism and
destabilizing the region. Qatar -- which shares its only land border with Saudi Arabia -- has
rejected the accusations calling them "unjustified" and "baseless".

12. CANADA / ISIS It is amazing how you can search out for people that share your view when it comes to ISIL threat. Goodale did say
on TV that he did not think you re-habilitate ISIL soldiers, so what changed?
http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/malcolm-trudeaus-de-radicalization-approach-is-dangerous
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/rise-of-extremism-in-2017-should-be-a-wakeup-call-for-canada-1.3706645
It is amazing the government says they are concerned for the safety of Canadians and yet says little on how it will
handle the 60 so called ISIS fighters. Here is information on ISIS:
1. http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/01/americas/edmonton-vehicle-attacks-investigation/index.html - ISIS attack
on a police officer
2. LPC defeats motion on ISIS - https://pamelageller.com/2017/12/trudeua-liberals-support-isis.html/
3. Motion on LPC plans to de-radicalized ISIS -
https://www.facebook.com/GlobalNews/videos/1616460011735091/
4. ISIS - https://youtu.be/bGcyuY_pBLM
5. Gender https://www.facebook.com/michellerempelmp/videos/1629422210450425/
6. Trudeau and Terrorist - https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/09/29/canadian-suspect-in-terror-
probe-took-selfie-with-justin-trudeau.html
7. Trudeau and lack of respect for Canadians - https://www.spencerfernando.com/2017/11/30/trudeau-show-
emotion-defending-people-hate-canada/
8. Deletion of records -
https://www.therebel.media/trudeau_has_rcmp_delete_5_000_intelligence_records_on_muslim_migrants
9. Radicalization - https://www.facebook.com/CBCPolitics/videos/1875219699173523/
10. Goodale again is blaming Harper -
https://www.facebook.com/michellerempelmp/videos/1622101751182471/
11. Public Safety is not tracking when intervention is used for radicals -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/deradicalization-canada-isis-fighters-program-1.4414999?cmp=news-
digests-canada-and-world-morning
““Mr. Speaker, the Conservative Party learned
nothing from the last election and the lessons
Canadians taught them. They ran an election on
snitch lines against Muslims, they ran an election
on Islamophobia and division, and still they play
the same games, trying to scare Canadians. The
fact is we always focus on the security of
Canadians, and we always will. They play the
politics of fear, and Canadians reject that.”
http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/furey-
trudeau-labels-legit-terrorism-questions-as-
islamophobia

13. NORTH KOREA AND THE WORLD
Source - http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/05/asia/north-korea-un-sanctions/index.html

14. RISK MANAGEMENT
• More and more companies include risk management as part of the reporting

15. RISK MANAGEMENT MARKET

16. ADDITIONAL SOURCES
• Reporting challenges facing business: https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/reporting-challenges-
for-office-of-finance-accounting-finance-tax-risk-management-internal-audit-november-2016
• BEPS Reporting - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/beps-oecd-mandate-tax-reporting-close-
consolidate-and-reporting-solutions
• Risk Management - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-development-of-risk-management-
program-important-to-a-business