Garcia et al 2016 co fortips final
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The CoForTips project was funded by multiple national funders to support research on scenarios of biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa. This research built upon the prior CoForSet project, which was also funded by a research call. The document discusses scenario planning and its purpose in highlighting large-scale forces that influence the future in different ways to help inform better decisions. It also notes the objectives of understanding uncertainties and incorporating alternative perspectives into planning to increase resilience.
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Garcia et al 2016 co fortips final
- 2. The CoForTips project was funded by the ERA-Net BiodivERsA, with the national funders ANR, BELSPO and FWF, part of the 2012 BiodivERsA call for research proposals. CoForTips –
- 3. This research was supported by the CoForSet project, funded by the FRB 2013 call for research proposals “Scenarios of Biodiversity for Sub-saharan Africa”.
- 10. Quelle trajectoire? Qui choisit? Quel plafond? Pour la sécurité de qui? Qui gagne et qui perd? Quels objectifs? Résilience de quoi? Pour qui?
- 11. Scenario Planning in an Uncertain World Conservation Biology Volume 17, Issue 2, pages 358-366, 25 MAR 2003 DOI: 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x/full#f1
- 12. The probable Predictions, forecasts and projections futures that will be The possible Scenarios futures that could be “Il est important de penser au futur, parce que nous sommes condamnés à passer avec lui le reste de notre vie” W. Allen
- 13. • The purpose of scenario planning is not to pinpoint future events but to highlight large-scale forces that push the future in different directions. • It's about making these forces visible • It's about helping make better decisions today. http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html
- 14. Why should we use scenario planning? (1) understanding of key uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into planning, (3) greater resilience of decisions to surprise. Peterson et al., 2003
- 16. Coupling social and ecological drivers to explore alternative futures for the forests of the Congo Basin
- 17. Objective Foster better management of the Congo Basin forests through a better understanding of : the dynamics, regime shifts and tipping points of biodiversity the resilience of forested social ecological systems and the construction of scenarios of biodiversity
- 18. 3 Thematic Components 1. Identifying Tipping Points in the Forests of the Congo Basin SES, mapping biodiversity resilience, identifying stable states and tipping points 2. Constructing Scenarios of Biodiversity, integrating social, economic, governance, ecological and geophysical processes in a platform able to simulate regional trajectories 3. Fostering Resilience, embedding the results of our research in the decision making process at the regional and national levels, through well- defined impact pathways involving policy makers and the civil society
- 19. Program Management Embedding Results Constructing ScenariosIdentifying Tipping Points WP 1: Resilience Landscapes WP 2: Drivers of Change WP 3: Integrated platform WP 4: Biodiversity scenarios WP 5: Fostering Dialog WP 0: Project Coordination
- 20. Program Management Embedding Results Constructing ScenariosIdentifying Tipping Points Resilience Landscapes Drivers of Change Integrated platform Biodiversity scenarios Embedding Fostering Dialog Advisory Group Steering Committee Project Coordination Understanding the SES WP 1: Norms and policies Results WP3: Learning Lessons Constructing Scenarios WP 2: Compensation scenarios CoForSet CoForSet CoForSet CoForTips CoForTips CoForTips
- 21. Team Science
- 23. Advisory Group • contribute to the definition of the problems addressed, • ensure the relevance of the scenarios, • act as champions for the project CoForTips – AERES 2014
- 24. Bodies Advisory Group Rosalie Matondo Rép du Congo, conseillère du président Shango Mutambwe RDC Professeur ERAIFT Prudence Galega Minef Cameroun Jacques Mavoungou, Masuku et IRET, Gabon Josiane Kondaoule, RCA, Ministère EFCP Martin Tadoum COMIFAC CoForTips – AERES 2014
- 25. Selected sites along a gradient illustrating the forest transition Guefigue (Cameroun) Makokou (Gabon) Mindourou, (Cameroun)
- 29. TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME
- 30. TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME
- 31. TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME
- 43. Tipping points Stable equilibria (basin of attraction) Unstable equilibria Unstability Resilience Landscape
- 53. Our ability to maintain the resilience and diversity of tropical forests around the world depends critically on our ability to foster multiple transitions in the way in which these forests are exploited, managed, and restored […]
- 57. MODELISATION PARTICIPATIVE WP4 Eglantine FAUVELLE, Micresse KAMTO, Lucas SCHNAPPER, Laurene FEINTRENIE and Helene DESSARD.
- 58. TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME
- 59. TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME TREND PRACTICEPRACTICE PRACTICE DRIVER DRIVERDRIVER DRIVER DRIVER DRIVER OUTPUT OUTPUTOUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME
- 61. Complex models of complex systems Macro Level (observation) Micro Level (description) Constraints Emergence
- 83. MONITORING
- 84. DEBRIEFING
- 85. ENGAGEMENT
- 87. Our ability to maintain the resilience and diversity of tropical forests around the world depends critically on our ability to foster multiple transitions in the way in which these forests are exploited, managed, and restored […]
- 90. Terroirs a multi-usages Clarifier le droit foncier Investir dans des agences statistiques Respecter les droits des populations Faire respecter la loi Mises en defens Sensibiliser sur la biodiversite Faire jouer des ministres Investir dans du planning familial Plans d urbanisme avec ceinture verte multi fonctionnelle Formation pour appui a l agriculture Plan d amenagement participatifs Sortir du capitalisme Investir dans la protection des elephants Application du no net loss sur mines et infrastructures Moratoire sur la conversion des forets dites degradees Devenir vegetarien Promouvoir la creation d entites collectives Publier et communiquer Arreter de voyager Promouvoir les actions locales aupres des bailleurs Promouvoir la bioprospection dans le respect de la convention cbd Inclure les questions de stabilite et de securite dans nos recherches Creer des ilots de bonne gouvernance Travailler avec les investisseurs publics et prives Creer une carte d usage des sols unique pour le BC Promouvoir l intensification de l agriculture Inclure le concept de trame verte dans les projets industriels Mettre en place un plan d affectation des terres Negocier un seuil de deforestation acceptee Impliquer les ONG dans les travaux de recherche Canaliser les mouvements de population
Editor's Notes
- The ecological footprint measures the area (in hectares) required to supply the ecological goods and services we use. The footprint exceeds the biocapacity – the land actually avalaible to provide these goods and services. The ecological footprint corresponds to the area, which is necessary to enable the lifestyle and standard of living of a person (under current production conditions) in sustainable way. Unter dem ökologischen Fußabdruck wird die Fläche auf der Erde verstanden, die notwendig ist, um den Lebensstil und Lebensstandard eines Menschen (unter den heutigen Produktionsbedingungen) dauerhaft zu ermöglichen. Your water footprint is the amount of water humans use to support the lifestyles – especially to grow food.
- Nine ecological dimensions are prioritized - essential for avoiding catastrophic global environmental change for humanity Land-system change, driven primarily by agricultural expansion and intensification, contributes to global environmental change, with the risk of undermining human well-being and long-term sustainability. Conversion of forests and other ecosystems to agricultural land has occurred at an average rate of 0.8% yr-1 over the past 40–50 years and is the major global driver behind loss of ecosystem functioning and services. Humanity may be reaching a point where further agricultural land expansion at a global scale may seriously threaten biodiversity and undermine regulatory capacities of the Earth System (by affecting the climate system and the hydrological cycle). Three planetary boundaries appear to have already passed over: biodiversity loss, climate change and nitrogen cycle, with already visible impacts on the well- being of human health and our demands on food, water and energy. Die Bestimmung ökologischer Belastungsgrenzen: Wahrscheinlich wurden drei von neun Belastungsgrenzen bereits überschritten (Stockholm Resilience Centre, 2009). In welchem Umfang bei der Belastung mit Chemikalien und bei Aerosolen die Belastungsgrenzen erreicht sind, wurde noch nicht umfassend berechnet.
- Organisation des activités, importance de la transmission des résultats. Gros enjeux de méthode: combiner des modèles, tester des scénarios définis de manière participative. Ambition: impact! Approches participatives, implication des partenaires nationaux, mise en place d’un conseil d’experts ayant un rôle de guide et de diffusion des résultats
- The Newton pattern is science’s holy grail: universal laws, fixed interactions described by tightly causal equations. The Darwin pattern is fundamentally different: universal processes whose logic, applied locally, creates a looser causality, including parts with behaviors that aren’t fixed, often involving choice and change. Hence detailed outcomes aren’t as mathematically describable or predictable. Question centrale des systemes adaptatifs complexes: coherence under change. In contrast to reductionism which is rooted in simplifications and thus gives a misleading confidence that understanding the parts will somehow “ensure” that we will be able to understand the whole, the complex systems approach focuses instead on a specific meaning of the phrase “The whole is more than the parts”.
- Premier résultat: choix des sites. Expliquer les critères de sélection: Sur la courbe de transition Terrains où nous avons du recul: 1 et 2 sont des terrains de Gembloux et en plein dans la zone de Coforchange. 3 est en marge de la zone de coforchange, mais terrain d’étude ancien du CIRAD sur les activités agricoles. IRAD et IRET seront de fait les partenaires africains les plus actifs dans le projet, il est prévu que des chercheurs juniors de ces instituts accompagnent les étudiants sur le terrain et soient formés aux différents outils utilisés ou développés dans le projet.
- Hirota et al have measured the tree cover of 10x10 km squares across the tropics, and found a tri-modal distribution. This suggests the existence of stable states (Forests / Savannas/ No Trees). If you inverse this graph…
- You have an estimation of the resilience of the different vegetation types (Forest, Savannas and no Tree). Imagine the system you are looking at as a pebble in a hole. Each hole is a stable state of the system. Here, a forest.
- If the hole is deep, small disturbances will not change the state of the system significantly.
- But if the pressures are too big, the system can move away from his basin of stability, and fall under another stable state. Here, your forest would become a savanna.
- Look at these in particular. When the rainfall decreases from 1800 to 1500 mm of annual precipitation, the « basin of attraction » of the forests has drastically reduced. Let’s look at the resilience landscape…
- A forest under 1800 mm of rain fall can absorb a choc and yet remain within the basin of attraction of the « forest » stable state. A forest under 1500 mm on the other hand easily falls outside of the basin of atraction… This study suggests clearly that the resilience of the forests in dry areas is much lower than the one of the rain forests…
- Tipping points occur where the attraction basins become very narrow : for example for forests (F/S) or savannas (S/Treeless) at low precipitations, or for savannas (S/F) at high precipitations. For instance, approaching the bifurcation point BF,S at which a forest / savanna transition is inevitable, the basin of attraction of the forest state shrinks while the atFor instance, approaching the bifurcation point BF,S at which a forest / savanna transition is inevitable, the basin of attraction of the forest state shrinks while the attraction basin around the savanna state is growing. As a consequence, the critical loss of tree cover beyond which forest is expected to shift toward a savanna state becomes smaller in the vicinity of this bifurcation point. The inferred shapes of the basins of attraction show how the resilience of the different states changes with precipitation.
- Inside we find a SES, With actors, ecosystems and rules – institutions, norms. A good way to represent this is with SMA
- Let us look even deeper – ah.. How is he making his decisions? What matters to him? Will the snitch go left or right? And we know two things : ! This guy is not Homo economicus. He exhibits what is called bounded rationality – DEFINITION AND he can chage his mind, he rewrite his code, he can learn – in essence, he has cognitive capacities. Some, more than others…
- List of the 20 recognized cognitive biaises that cloud our judgement Look at this one the overconfidence = experts are particularly exposed to this biais . Their expertise entilte them to their opinion and they are thus more prone to make mistakes. We saw an example of this yeasterday in a presentation on the mega trends and game changes in Japan in which opinions of experts were much more extreme than those of the laypeople The tradtionnal response to this biais is to confront experts however this fails because rethorics takes over and instead of talking of the topic it can become a battle of will or ego. A more constructive approach is to let them consider the complexity of the system they are talking about . To overcome this biais the experts need to be confronted to the complixity of the system they deal with., Psychologists have shon that this confrontation shatters their illusion of understanding and therefore reduces that biais of overconfidence. And this is a first step towards a more construcctive dialogue and creation of new innovative solutions. This is the objective of construction of a more constru tive dialogue = key obj of our approach. Tha tis what we tried to do to deal with the issues the palm oil supply chain is facing in Cameroon.
- So what we are trying to do, is imagine where a snitch will land in a multidimensional shifting golf course with heavy terrassing works underway and an army of enthusiastic but semi-blindfolded golfer all trying to hit the snitch at the same time to send it in different holes. Good luck, Like this guy, I also think I should have gone for quantum phyisics or something simple like that.
- Our research tells a story of long-term ecological changes, evolving agricultural practices and shifting livelihood strategies as new opportunities arise, changes in the tenure rights that follow the trends of the landscape changes, and of the norms and policies that will shape the forests futures. All this is good research. But it remains at best multi-disciplinary research. It provides a static vision of trends as they are happening.
- A regional map of forest types has been produced based on a classification of the seasonal profiles of photosynthetic activity (measured by EVI, Enhanced Vegetation Index) as derived from a 13-y time series (2000-2012) of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer) satellite data. Ten terra firme forest classes were identified and interpreted in terms of deciduousness and structure based on 37,898 0.5-ha ground truth plots gathered from 19 forest companies. Radar and Lidar data were also used to discriminate the swamp forests.
- Figure 2: Projection of population density by 0.5 degree grid between 2000 and 2050 in the Congo Basin (source: IIASA/POP)
- Seances test et séances “ en situation” Nous observons apres la phase d’apprentissage – deux premiers tous, la mise en place de strategies de subsitance – des menages se specialisent dans la chasse, d’autre d’autre investissent dans du cacao. La terre n’est pas une resource limitante, les densites sont faibles. Les goulots d’etranglement sont l’ecoulement des produits et l’acces a la monnaie. Les solutions envisages par les acteurs ne font pas montre de cooperation, et la vente au marche est totalement desorganisee. Premier arrive?premier servi.
- During the game session, the diff roles where emlbodied by diff rente representatives of palm oil supply chain and by policy makers, from the committee of regulation for palm oil supply chain. Here representative of min of trade agriculture and finance playing the role of palm oil small holderrs queiing to deliver their fruits to artisanal mills. Forcing people to develop strategies wioth different aims and knowledge than those they are used to considering their domain of expertise not only contriubute to individual learning by broadening socpes but is above all a step towards creation of innovative solution.
- The entire process is conductive to discussion and negociation. During the game, during the debriefing. In real life, when stakeholders in a supply hin are confronted to a problem,organizing workshops, seting the agendq – that is how solutions are sought: Here, during the game, exactly the same thing can be done, mimicns these processes, and promptiong the players to share their perceptions and think out of the box looking for alternatives, in a safe environment. It just requires setting a time frame (Five minutes!) and some soft skills of facilitation.
- During a game session we monitor and record different indicateors : Flows of cash and products across the supp chain We Also document (through notes, pictures, videos with consent) the interaction between the players , discussions, potential conflicts that emerge and how they are solved and the potential alliances generate a data set, which is akin to sociological surveys but with the difference that we can immedialty can refer to them and it thus serves as support for discussions.
- But more importantly a game session is immediately followed by a debriefing and if individual learning may happen during game session, collective learning happens during the debriefing pahse (the research team and stakeholders) During the game you can have individual learning We can talk about the sterategies they dvpe, the success and failures and their reasons. We can talk about the outcomes and lessons learnt, compare the behaviour of the model to what they know of the real system and this acts as a social validation. Or can be the oppr to revise the model and refine it. This is the moiment when everybody gets feedbacks and learns. As a side note¨:
- Evething was possible because Emmanuel Ngom, a representative of Indepentend Small holders in the MINADER, sitting in the committee, was involved in the research project since inception, helping set the agenda, following the awareness creation workshops at project inception. HE saw the potiental of the tool and opened for us the doors of the committee, cajoling and selling the method to his peers. Such an entrypoint is priceless.