Escenarios, Juegos y Estrategias - Garcia Bogota 2014

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This document discusses using scenario planning and games to model participatory and multi-stakeholder management of natural resources. It provides examples of scenario planning games that explore different outcomes based on rules about tree ownership rights. The document also summarizes the results of one such game, finding that granting tree rights led to higher farmer incomes and tree cover but reduced biodiversity compared to having no tree rights.

Escenarios, Juegos y
Estrategias
Modelos participativso y manejo multi-actores de
recursos naturales
Claudio Garcia

• The purpose of scenario
planning is not to pinpoint
future events but to
highlight large-scale
forces that push the future
in different directions.
• It's about making these
forces visible
• It's about helping make
better decisions today.
http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

Que techo? Para la seguridad de quién?
Que trayectoria?
Quién elige?
Que objetivos?
Resiliencia de
qué? Para
quién?
Quién gana?
Quién pierde?

Biodiversity
changes
Forest to
Agroforest

Landscape Trends
December 15,
2014
WCA 2014 – Delhi 16

Biodiversity
changes
Forest to
Agroforest
Reducing
canopy
Replacing
by
G. robusta
Tree
ownership
rights
Implementation
of public policies
Labor costs
Coffee
prices
fluctuation
Timber
smuggling

“While conferring ownership rights […] right over the
tree growth may be excluded. As otherwise, it is
apprehended that in 10 years time the entire tree
growth is likely to disappear.”
- G.K. Lokare, Secy. to Govt., Revenue Dept., 22/9/99

ComMod: Objectives
1rst : to improve knowledge / understanding
Through Modeling
2nd : to support collective decision-making
processes

sells
Market Forest Dpt
Coffee
owner
Input
WCA 2014 – Delhi 25
Irrigation
infrastructure
Labor
buys
hires
works
climbs on
Management
bloc
sell
Timber
merchant
buys
buys
enforces policies

Conceptual Model
Régénération naturelle
Role Playing Game
Grevillea robusta
Ferme
Poivre Force de travail
Irrigation
Intrants
Perche
Arbre élagué
Junglewood
Caféier
10 cm

Scenarios
• No Tree Rights
– Difficult to sale Jungle Wood on the legal
market
– No restrictions on Silver Oak
• Tree Rights
– No restrictions on Jungle Wood as well as
on Silver Oak

Result - Livelihood
250
200
150
100
50
0
Average Income: Coffee + Pepper + Timber
1 2 3 4 5
Farmer's Income (in CINC)
No Tree
Rights
Tree Rights
Game Turns

Result – Tree cover
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Tree Rights
0 1 2 3 4 5
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
No Tree Rights
0 1 2 3 4 5
Trees Saplings Seedlings

Result - Biodiversity
100%
50%
0%
No Tree Rights
0 1 2 3 4 5
100%
50%
0%
Tree Rights
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jungle Wood Silver Oak

Biodiversity
changes
Forest to
Agroforest
Opening
the canopy
Certification
GI
PES
Planting
G. robusta
ownership
Implementation
of public policies
Labor costs
Coffee
prices
fluctuation
Timber
smuggling
Tree
Ownership
rights

5
1
Multi-Agent Universe
3
2
Information Action

sells
Market Forest Dpt
Coffee
owner
Input
Irrigation
infrastructure
Labor
buys
hires
works
climbs on
Management
bloc
sell
Timber
merchant
buys
buys
enforces policies

Online Platform
http://www.fordev-kodagu.ethz.ch/

Outcome?
SCENARIOS
S1 S2 S3 S4
LIVELIHOODS ++ + + -
CULTURAL IDENTITY - + - - -
BIODIVERSITY + ++ - ++

Sígannos!
http://www.fordev-kodagu.ethz.ch/
https://www.facebook.com/fordev.eth

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学校原件一模一样【微信：741003700 】《(lboro毕业证书)拉夫堡大学毕业证学历证书》【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。 1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700 【主营项目】一.毕业证【q微741003700】成绩单、使馆认证、教育部认证、雅思托福成绩单、学生卡等！二.真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,不成功不收费) 三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度) 如果您处于以下几种情况： ◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【q/微741003700】 ◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到； ◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备； ◇回国时间很长，忘记办理； ◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看； ◇企事业单位必须要求办理的 ◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口 ◇申请留学生创业基金留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才

Global Climate Change and global warming

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原版制作(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证在读证明一模一样

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学校原件一模一样【微信：741003700 】《(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证》【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。 1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700 【主营项目】一.毕业证【q微741003700】成绩单、使馆认证、教育部认证、雅思托福成绩单、学生卡等！二.真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,不成功不收费) 三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度) 如果您处于以下几种情况： ◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【q/微741003700】 ◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到； ◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备； ◇回国时间很长，忘记办理； ◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看； ◇企事业单位必须要求办理的 ◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口 ◇申请留学生创业基金留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才

world-environment-day-2024-240601103559-14f4c0b4.pptx

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Promoting Multilateral Cooperation for Sustainable Peatland management

Global Landscapes Forum (GLF)

Microbial characterisation and identification, and potability of River Kuywa ...

Open Access Research Paper

Water contamination is one of the major causes of water borne diseases worldwide. In Kenya, approximately 43% of people lack access to potable water due to human contamination. River Kuywa water is currently experiencing contamination due to human activities. Its water is widely used for domestic, agricultural, industrial and recreational purposes. This study aimed at characterizing bacteria and fungi in river Kuywa water. Water samples were randomly collected from four sites of the river: site A (Matisi), site B (Ngwelo), site C (Nzoia water pump) and site D (Chalicha), during the dry season (January-March 2018) and wet season (April-July 2018) and were transported to Maseno University Microbiology and plant pathology laboratory for analysis. The characterization and identification of bacteria and fungi were carried out using standard microbiological techniques. Nine bacterial genera and three fungi were identified from Kuywa river water. Clostridium spp., Staphylococcus spp., Enterobacter spp., Streptococcus spp., E. coli, Klebsiella spp., Shigella spp., Proteus spp. and Salmonella spp. Fungi were Fusarium oxysporum, Aspergillus flavus complex and Penicillium species. Wet season recorded highest bacterial and fungal counts (6.61-7.66 and 3.83-6.75cfu/ml) respectively. The results indicated that the river Kuywa water is polluted and therefore unsafe for human consumption before treatment. It is therefore recommended that the communities to ensure that they boil water especially for drinking.

Improving the Management of Peatlands and the Capacities of Stakeholders in I...

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Global Peatlands Map and Hotspot Explanation Atlas

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Peatland Management in Indonesia, Science to Policy and Knowledge Education

Global Landscapes Forum (GLF)

Enhanced action and stakeholder engagement for sustainable peatland management

Global Landscapes Forum (GLF)

Kinetic studies on malachite green dye adsorption from aqueous solutions by A...

Open Access Research Paper

Water polluted by dyestuffs compounds is a global threat to health and the environment; accordingly, we prepared a green novel sorbent chemical and Physical system from an algae, chitosan and chitosan nanoparticle and impregnated with algae with chitosan nanocomposite for the sorption of Malachite green dye from water. The algae with chitosan nanocomposite by a simple method and used as a recyclable and effective adsorbent for the removal of malachite green dye from aqueous solutions. Algae, chitosan, chitosan nanoparticle and algae with chitosan nanocomposite were characterized using different physicochemical methods. The functional groups and chemical compounds found in algae, chitosan, chitosan algae, chitosan nanoparticle, and chitosan nanoparticle with algae were identified using FTIR, SEM, and TGADTA/DTG techniques. The optimal adsorption conditions, different dosages, pH and Temperature the amount of algae with chitosan nanocomposite were determined. At optimized conditions and the batch equilibrium studies more than 99% of the dye was removed. The adsorption process data matched well kinetics showed that the reaction order for dye varied with pseudo-first order and pseudo-second order. Furthermore, the maximum adsorption capacity of the algae with chitosan nanocomposite toward malachite green dye reached as high as 15.5mg/g, respectively. Finally, multiple times reusing of algae with chitosan nanocomposite and removing dye from a real wastewater has made it a promising and attractive option for further practical applications.

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Improving the Management of Peatlands and the Capacities of Stakeholders in I...

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Peatland Management in Indonesia, Science to Policy and Knowledge Education

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Escenarios, Juegos y Estrategias - Garcia Bogota 2014

1. Escenarios, Juegos y Estrategias Modelos participativso y manejo multi-actores de recursos naturales Claudio Garcia

2. FORDEV

3. FORDEV Karbi Anglong TiCoYa

5. Juegos

8. • The purpose of scenario planning is not to pinpoint future events but to highlight large-scale forces that push the future in different directions. • It's about making these forces visible • It's about helping make better decisions today. http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

10. Que techo? Para la seguridad de quién? Que trayectoria? Quién elige? Que objetivos? Resiliencia de qué? Para quién? Quién gana? Quién pierde?

11.

12. 3 1 2

13.

14. December 15, 2014 WCA 2014 – Delhi 14

15. Biodiversity changes Forest to Agroforest

16. Landscape Trends December 15, 2014 WCA 2014 – Delhi 16

17. Stand dynamics

18.

19. Biodiversity changes Forest to Agroforest Reducing canopy Replacing by G. robusta Tree ownership rights Implementation of public policies Labor costs Coffee prices fluctuation Timber smuggling

20. Timber Rights Cheynier 2006

21. Timber Rights

22. “While conferring ownership rights […] right over the tree growth may be excluded. As otherwise, it is apprehended that in 10 years time the entire tree growth is likely to disappear.” - G.K. Lokare, Secy. to Govt., Revenue Dept., 22/9/99

23.

24. ComMod: Objectives 1rst : to improve knowledge / understanding Through Modeling 2nd : to support collective decision-making processes

25. sells Market Forest Dpt Coffee owner Input WCA 2014 – Delhi 25 Irrigation infrastructure Labor buys hires works climbs on Management bloc sell Timber merchant buys buys enforces policies

26. Conceptual Model Régénération naturelle Role Playing Game Grevillea robusta Ferme Poivre Force de travail Irrigation Intrants Perche Arbre élagué Junglewood Caféier 10 cm

27. Scenarios • No Tree Rights – Difficult to sale Jungle Wood on the legal market – No restrictions on Silver Oak • Tree Rights – No restrictions on Jungle Wood as well as on Silver Oak

28. December 15, 2014 WCA 2014 – Delhi 28

29. Result - Livelihood 250 200 150 100 50 0 Average Income: Coffee + Pepper + Timber 1 2 3 4 5 Farmer's Income (in CINC) No Tree Rights Tree Rights Game Turns

30. Result – Tree cover 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Tree Rights 0 1 2 3 4 5 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 No Tree Rights 0 1 2 3 4 5 Trees Saplings Seedlings

31. Result - Biodiversity 100% 50% 0% No Tree Rights 0 1 2 3 4 5 100% 50% 0% Tree Rights 0 1 2 3 4 5 Jungle Wood Silver Oak

32. Biodiversity changes Forest to Agroforest Opening the canopy Certification GI PES Planting G. robusta ownership Implementation of public policies Labor costs Coffee prices fluctuation Timber smuggling Tree Ownership rights

33. 5 1 Multi-Agent Universe 3 2 Information Action

34. sells Market Forest Dpt Coffee owner Input Irrigation infrastructure Labor buys hires works climbs on Management bloc sell Timber merchant buys buys enforces policies

35. Conceptual model

36. Stupid agent Applet

37. Conceptual model

38. Online Platform http://www.fordev-kodagu.ethz.ch/

39.

40. AAR

41.

42.

43. Outcome? SCENARIOS S1 S2 S3 S4 LIVELIHOODS ++ + + - CULTURAL IDENTITY - + - - - BIODIVERSITY + ++ - ++

44. AAR

45. Landscape Trends

46. Sígannos! http://www.fordev-kodagu.ethz.ch/ https://www.facebook.com/fordev.eth