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OECD‐
                      OECD‐FAO
            Agricultural Outlook  2011‐2020
            Agricultural Outlook  2011‐


                           Pavel Vavra

                   OECD Trade and Agriculture



The Outlook for EU Agriculture, COPA-COGECA, Brussels, 29 June, 2011




      OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

                                    • Agricultural Outlook ‐ a set of 
                                      conditional projections 
                                      published in an OECD‐FAO 
                                        bli h d i     OECD FAO
                                      annual report 
                                    • Comprehensive, dynamic partial 
                                      equilibrium model
                                    • The datasets are available at 
                                      www.agri‐outlook.org 
                                              i tl k




                            OECD Trade & Agriculture                     2




                                                                             1
Key macroeconomic assumptions

• Global economic recovery
  underway (fragile in OECD, but
  more robust in BRICs)

• 2.2% Inflation in OECD area but
  higher elsewhere

• Weak US dollar and higher oil
  prices

• Stable policy regimes




                               OECD Trade & Agriculture   3




              Slowdown in population growth


    Annual percentage change




                               OECD Trade & Agriculture   4




                                                              2
Urbanisation – a key driver
                                                               Rural Population   Urban Population

                                                9000
                                                8000
                                                7000
• Rural population numbers are
                                                6000
  expected to stagnate.




                                          ons
                                                5000




                                     Millio
                                                4000
• All additional population is to               3000

  live in urban areas                           2000
                                                1000
                                                  0
                                                   1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


                                                4500
                                                4000
                                                3500
 • Move to urban areas to take                  3000
                                     Millions



                                                2500
   place mainly in developing                   2000
   countries                                    1500
                                                1000
                                                500
                                                  0
                                                   1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

                                                               Developed urban    Developing Urban

                                    OECD Trade & Agriculture                                                5




             World oil prices to remain relatively high

       USD/Barrel
     120

     100

       80

       60

       40

       20

        0
         1985     1990     1995     2000                 2005          2010           2015           2020



                                    OECD Trade & Agriculture                                                6




                                                                                                                 3
Main commodity projections
• Commodity prices in real terms to remain above last
  decade average levels
   – Income, population and biofuels growth
   – Higher cost structure

• Latin America and Eastern Europe are the fastest growing
  production regions

• Developing countries driving the global demand and trade
  gains

• G
  Growing food deficits expected in Sub-Saharan countries
      i f d d fi it          t di S bS h            ti

• Meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar should
  experience the highest increases in demand


                                    OECD Trade & Agriculture                     7




 Most commodity prices at higher average levels
    Percentage change in world prices in real terms relative to 2001-2010 base

  60


  50


  40


  30


  20


  10


   0


  -10




                                    OECD Trade & Agriculture                     8




                                                                                     4
Production shifts to developing countries
Share of global agricultural and fish production gains
Production gains between 2008/10 - 2020 valued at world reference prices (2004/06)



                                                                                     N.America
                                                                                        10%

                                                                      Oceania
                                                                        2%



                                                                                                         L.America
                                                                                                            21%
                                  Asia&Pacific
                                      45%




                                                                                                      W.Europe
                                                                                                         3%

                                                                                          E.Europe&C.Asia
                                                                                                7%
                                                                                  N.Africa&M.East
                                                                         S.S.Africa      3%
                                                                            9%


                                             0-15% over the decade        15-30% over the decade      +30% over the decade

                                                                     OECD Trade & Agriculture                                                      9




                 Production shifts to developing countries
Share of global agricultural and fish production gains                                     Sugar, vegetable oil and poultry production
Production gains between 2008/10 - 2020 valued at world reference prices (2004/06)         are expected to record the highest growths

                                                                                                         SMP
                                                                                                        WMP
                                                  N.America
                                                     10%                                               Cheese
                                                                                                       Butter
                                         Oceania
                                           2%
                                                                                                       Poultry
                                                                                                      Pigmeat
                                                                      L.America
                                                                                                         Beef
                                                                         21%
           Asia&Pacific
               45%                                                                                        Fish


                                                                                                        Sugar
                                                               W.Europe
                                                                  3%                               Veget. Oils
                                                        E.Europe&C.Asia
                                                        EE      &C A i                           Protein meals
                                                              7%                                      Oilseeds
                                                 N.Africa&M.East
                                           S.S.Africa 3%
                                              9%                                                          Rice
                                                                                                 Coarse grains
            0-15% over the decade         15-30% over the decade      +30% over the decade             Wheat

                                                                                                                 0    10     20     30     40


                                                                                                 Per cent change: 2020 compared to 2008-2010 average

                                                                     OECD Trade & Agriculture                                                     10




                                                                                                                                                       5
Large differences in milk production gains




                                   OECD Trade & Agriculture                                  11




Fish production growth driven by aquaculture
                                  Capture         Aquaculture
Million tonnes
180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

  0
  2000       2002   2004   2006    2008        2010           2012   2014   2016   2018   2020




                                   OECD Trade & Agriculture                                  12




                                                                                                  6
Ethanol production growing steadily
  Feedstocks used for ethanol production over the projection period
160


140                                                                                         Other

 120                                                                                        Sugar beet


100                                                                                         Non agricultural
                                                                                            feedstock

  80                                                                                        Molasse


  60                                                                                        Wheat


  40                                                                                        Biomass-based


                                                                                            Sugar Cane
  20

                                                                                            Coarse grains
      -
Bnl         2008- 2011    2012   2013   2014   2015    2016      2017      2018 2019 2020
            2010


                                                OECD Trade & Agriculture                                    13




      Strong growth of global biodiesel production
            Feedstocks used for biodiesel production over the projection period
      Bnl
          40

                                                                                            Jatropha
          35

          30
                                                                                            Non
          25                                                                                agricultural
                                                                                            feedstock
          20
                                                                                            Biomass-
                                                                                            based
          15

          10
                                                                                            Vegetable oil

            5

            -
                2008-2010011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
                        2



                                                OECD Trade & Agriculture                                    14




                                                                                                                 7
Biofuels production represents an important share of global
                   feedstock utilisation
  Share of feedstocks used for biofuel production from global production

                                         2020                               2008‐2010
  Percent
  35%


  30%


  25%


  20%


  15%                                                                                   + 90 Mt
  10%


   5%


   0%
             Sugar cane          Vegetable oil           Coarse Grains              Sugar beet          Wheat




                                                 OECD Trade & Agriculture                                             15




     Food remains the main driver for wheat
                      Food Use            Feed Use                  Biofuel Use             Other use


Developing 2008/10
                                                                                + 34 Mt
   Developing 2020


 Developed 2008/10


   Developed 2020


                          0           100                 200                 300                400        500
                                                       Million tonnes

             World
            2008/10


             World
             2020


                      0                   200                         400                   600                 800



                                                 OECD Trade & Agriculture                                             16




                                                                                                                           8
…while feed and fuel push coarse grain demand up
                       Food Use          Feed Use               Biofuel Use               Other use


Developing 2008/10


  Developing 2020                                                                + 50 Mt
                                                                                 + 50 Mt
Developed 2008/10


   Developed 2020


                        0         100    200        300          400         500         600        700    800
                                                 Million tonnes                         + 90 Mt
               World
              2008/10


               World
               2020


                        0         200      400           600               800        1 000     1 200      1 400

                                                OECD Trade & Agriculture                                           17




              Driven by economic growth, meat consumption
               increases especially in developing countries
              Consumption of meat from 2008-10 average to 2020, per cent

              World                                                          Developing/Developed
                                                                       Developing
  Beef
                                                                       Developed
                                                                       D   l   d




  Pork




Poultry




 Sheep



          0       10        20      30     40                      0             10            20         30       40



                                                OECD Trade & Agriculture                                           18




                                                                                                                        9
Outlook for dairy products consumption




         Butter          Cheese                         SMP       WMP

                             OECD Trade & Agriculture                            19




Per capita consumption evolution differs by product
  Per capita consumption of WMP               Per capita consumption of cheese




                             OECD Trade & Agriculture                            20




                                                                                      10
Global trade to grow by 10-30%
Imports : Share of the import gains                                                                  Vegetable oils, rice and SMP
                                                                                                     trade growing the fastest
                                           N.America
                                              10%
                                      Oceania
                                                     L.America
                                                                                             SMP
                                        1%
                   Asia&Pacif                           9%                                  WMP
                       ic                                                                  Cheese
                      37%
                                                                                           Butter
                                                        W.Europe
                                                          15%
                                                                                           poultry
                                                    E.Europe&
                                                      C.Asia                              Pigmeat
                            S.S.Africa     N.Africa&    4%                                   Beef
                               9%           M.East
                                             15%
                                                                                              Fish
Exports: Share of the export gains
                                                                                            Sugar
                                                   N.America
                                                      13%
                                                                                      Veget. Oils
                                         Oceania
                                           4%                                      Protein meals
                                                                                          Oilseeds
                     Asia&Paci
                         fic
                        38%                                      L.America                    Rice
                                                                    27%
                                                                                   Coarse grains
                                     S.S.Africa                                            Wheat
                                        ‐1%

                                         E.Europe W.Europe                                           0       10           20      30         40
                            N.Africa&
                                         &C.Asia     6%
                             M.East                                                            Per cent change 2020 compared to 2008-2010 average
                                           11%
                               0%

                                                               OECD Trade & Agriculture                                                      21




             Sugar exports remain highly concentrated
                        and lead by Brazil

                                                                   2008‐10            2020
         Million tonnes r.s.e    .
       70

       60

       50

       40

       30

       20

       10

        0
               World                 Brazil          Thailand Australia                       Mexico              India        South 
                                                                                                                               Africa


                                                               OECD Trade & Agriculture                                                      22




                                                                                                                                                    11
While sugar imports are more diversified

                     OECD                                                    Emerging economies
     Million tonnes r.s.e.                                          Million tonnes r.s.e.
 6                                                           6
 5                                                           5
 4                                                           4
 3                                                           3
 2                                                           2
 1                                                           1
 0                                                           0
       European  United        Korea       Japan
                                                                          China Indonesia Russia      India
        Union    States
                                 2008‐10        2020



                                               OECD Trade & Agriculture                                       23




 Stochastic analysis of projected agricultural production
          Impact on world coarse grain prices
• Monte Carlo simulations on yields, oil and fertiliser prices, macroeconomic variables.
• 500 model runs show more upside potential for world coarse grains prices


                     10% percentile           baseline              median          90th percentile
          USD/t
       350

       300

       250

       200

       150

       100

         50

          0
              1975    1980   1985      1990     1995       2000           2005   2010   2015   2020


                                               OECD Trade & Agriculture                                       24




                                                                                                                   12
Key Market Drivers
                               Income changes impact mainly demand for meat and dairy products
                                 1 % additional income growth p.a.                             1% less income growth p.a.
     beef and veal
      sheep meat
            cheese
             butter
              sugar
     poultry meat
whole milk powder
whole milk powder
               pork
     coarse grains
             wheat
     vegetable oil
                rice

                  ‐2,5%      ‐2,0%     ‐1,5%       ‐1,0%     ‐0,5%       0,0%      0,5%     1,0%       1,5%        2,0%        2,5%
        Impact of a 1% increase/decrease of annual GDP growth on global commodity consumption (average over projection period)

                          Yield growth and changes have important impact on global commodity prices
                                       yields increase by 5%                              yields decrease by 5%
             wheat
                i
               rice
      coarse grains
     protein meals
      poultry meat
           oilseeds

                  ‐30%               ‐20%              ‐10%                  0%             10%                20%                30%
                         Impact of 5% increase/decrease in yields of cereals on world commodity prices (average over projection period)



                                                               OECD Trade & Agriculture                                                   25




                                         Key Market Drivers

 • Demand growth – above all in
   developing countries

 • C
   Convergence i consumption
               in       ti
   patterns

 • Developing countries raise meat
   consumption

 • Increased health and nutrition
   concerns

 • Supply adjusting to higher
   production costs

 • International investment


                                                               OECD Trade & Agriculture                                                   26




                                                                                                                                               13
Key issues and uncertainties

• Traditional uncertainties:
    – Weather and economic stability
    – Developments in trade and
      domestic policies


• Biofuels policies and biofuel
  developments

• Food security and climate
  change


•   Increased price volatility




                                  OECD Trade & Agriculture   27




                     OECD Trade and Agriculture




                 www.oecd.org/agriculture



                             Contact
                      tad.contact@oecd.org

                                  OECD Trade & Agriculture   28




                                                                  14

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Pavel Vavra

  • 1. OECD‐ OECD‐FAO Agricultural Outlook  2011‐2020 Agricultural Outlook  2011‐ Pavel Vavra OECD Trade and Agriculture The Outlook for EU Agriculture, COPA-COGECA, Brussels, 29 June, 2011 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook • Agricultural Outlook ‐ a set of  conditional projections  published in an OECD‐FAO  bli h d i OECD FAO annual report  • Comprehensive, dynamic partial  equilibrium model • The datasets are available at  www.agri‐outlook.org  i tl k OECD Trade & Agriculture 2 1
  • 2. Key macroeconomic assumptions • Global economic recovery underway (fragile in OECD, but more robust in BRICs) • 2.2% Inflation in OECD area but higher elsewhere • Weak US dollar and higher oil prices • Stable policy regimes OECD Trade & Agriculture 3 Slowdown in population growth Annual percentage change OECD Trade & Agriculture 4 2
  • 3. Urbanisation – a key driver Rural Population Urban Population 9000 8000 7000 • Rural population numbers are 6000 expected to stagnate. ons 5000 Millio 4000 • All additional population is to 3000 live in urban areas 2000 1000 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 4500 4000 3500 • Move to urban areas to take 3000 Millions 2500 place mainly in developing 2000 countries 1500 1000 500 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Developed urban Developing Urban OECD Trade & Agriculture 5 World oil prices to remain relatively high USD/Barrel 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 OECD Trade & Agriculture 6 3
  • 4. Main commodity projections • Commodity prices in real terms to remain above last decade average levels – Income, population and biofuels growth – Higher cost structure • Latin America and Eastern Europe are the fastest growing production regions • Developing countries driving the global demand and trade gains • G Growing food deficits expected in Sub-Saharan countries i f d d fi it t di S bS h ti • Meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar should experience the highest increases in demand OECD Trade & Agriculture 7 Most commodity prices at higher average levels Percentage change in world prices in real terms relative to 2001-2010 base 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 OECD Trade & Agriculture 8 4
  • 5. Production shifts to developing countries Share of global agricultural and fish production gains Production gains between 2008/10 - 2020 valued at world reference prices (2004/06) N.America 10% Oceania 2% L.America 21% Asia&Pacific 45% W.Europe 3% E.Europe&C.Asia 7% N.Africa&M.East S.S.Africa 3% 9% 0-15% over the decade 15-30% over the decade +30% over the decade OECD Trade & Agriculture 9 Production shifts to developing countries Share of global agricultural and fish production gains Sugar, vegetable oil and poultry production Production gains between 2008/10 - 2020 valued at world reference prices (2004/06) are expected to record the highest growths SMP WMP N.America 10% Cheese Butter Oceania 2% Poultry Pigmeat L.America Beef 21% Asia&Pacific 45% Fish Sugar W.Europe 3% Veget. Oils E.Europe&C.Asia EE &C A i Protein meals 7% Oilseeds N.Africa&M.East S.S.Africa 3% 9% Rice Coarse grains 0-15% over the decade 15-30% over the decade +30% over the decade Wheat 0 10 20 30 40 Per cent change: 2020 compared to 2008-2010 average OECD Trade & Agriculture 10 5
  • 6. Large differences in milk production gains OECD Trade & Agriculture 11 Fish production growth driven by aquaculture Capture Aquaculture Million tonnes 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 OECD Trade & Agriculture 12 6
  • 7. Ethanol production growing steadily Feedstocks used for ethanol production over the projection period 160 140 Other 120 Sugar beet 100 Non agricultural feedstock 80 Molasse 60 Wheat 40 Biomass-based Sugar Cane 20 Coarse grains - Bnl 2008- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2010 OECD Trade & Agriculture 13 Strong growth of global biodiesel production Feedstocks used for biodiesel production over the projection period Bnl 40 Jatropha 35 30 Non 25 agricultural feedstock 20 Biomass- based 15 10 Vegetable oil 5 - 2008-2010011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2 OECD Trade & Agriculture 14 7
  • 8. Biofuels production represents an important share of global feedstock utilisation Share of feedstocks used for biofuel production from global production 2020 2008‐2010 Percent 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% + 90 Mt 10% 5% 0% Sugar cane Vegetable oil Coarse Grains Sugar beet Wheat OECD Trade & Agriculture 15 Food remains the main driver for wheat Food Use Feed Use Biofuel Use Other use Developing 2008/10 + 34 Mt Developing 2020 Developed 2008/10 Developed 2020 0 100 200 300 400 500 Million tonnes World 2008/10 World 2020 0 200 400 600 800 OECD Trade & Agriculture 16 8
  • 9. …while feed and fuel push coarse grain demand up Food Use Feed Use Biofuel Use Other use Developing 2008/10 Developing 2020 + 50 Mt + 50 Mt Developed 2008/10 Developed 2020 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Million tonnes + 90 Mt World 2008/10 World 2020 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 OECD Trade & Agriculture 17 Driven by economic growth, meat consumption increases especially in developing countries Consumption of meat from 2008-10 average to 2020, per cent World Developing/Developed Developing Beef Developed D l d Pork Poultry Sheep 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 OECD Trade & Agriculture 18 9
  • 10. Outlook for dairy products consumption Butter Cheese SMP WMP OECD Trade & Agriculture 19 Per capita consumption evolution differs by product Per capita consumption of WMP Per capita consumption of cheese OECD Trade & Agriculture 20 10
  • 11. Global trade to grow by 10-30% Imports : Share of the import gains Vegetable oils, rice and SMP trade growing the fastest N.America 10% Oceania L.America SMP 1% Asia&Pacif 9% WMP ic Cheese 37% Butter W.Europe 15% poultry E.Europe& C.Asia Pigmeat S.S.Africa N.Africa& 4% Beef 9% M.East 15% Fish Exports: Share of the export gains Sugar N.America 13% Veget. Oils Oceania 4% Protein meals Oilseeds Asia&Paci fic 38% L.America Rice 27% Coarse grains S.S.Africa Wheat ‐1% E.Europe W.Europe 0 10 20 30 40 N.Africa& &C.Asia 6% M.East Per cent change 2020 compared to 2008-2010 average 11% 0% OECD Trade & Agriculture 21 Sugar exports remain highly concentrated and lead by Brazil 2008‐10 2020 Million tonnes r.s.e . 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 World Brazil Thailand Australia Mexico India South  Africa OECD Trade & Agriculture 22 11
  • 12. While sugar imports are more diversified OECD Emerging economies Million tonnes r.s.e. Million tonnes r.s.e. 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 European  United  Korea Japan China Indonesia Russia India Union States 2008‐10 2020 OECD Trade & Agriculture 23 Stochastic analysis of projected agricultural production Impact on world coarse grain prices • Monte Carlo simulations on yields, oil and fertiliser prices, macroeconomic variables. • 500 model runs show more upside potential for world coarse grains prices 10% percentile baseline median 90th percentile USD/t 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 OECD Trade & Agriculture 24 12
  • 13. Key Market Drivers Income changes impact mainly demand for meat and dairy products 1 % additional income growth p.a. 1% less income growth p.a. beef and veal sheep meat cheese butter sugar poultry meat whole milk powder whole milk powder pork coarse grains wheat vegetable oil rice ‐2,5% ‐2,0% ‐1,5% ‐1,0% ‐0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% Impact of a 1% increase/decrease of annual GDP growth on global commodity consumption (average over projection period) Yield growth and changes have important impact on global commodity prices yields increase by 5% yields decrease by 5% wheat i rice coarse grains protein meals poultry meat oilseeds ‐30% ‐20% ‐10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Impact of 5% increase/decrease in yields of cereals on world commodity prices (average over projection period) OECD Trade & Agriculture 25 Key Market Drivers • Demand growth – above all in developing countries • C Convergence i consumption in ti patterns • Developing countries raise meat consumption • Increased health and nutrition concerns • Supply adjusting to higher production costs • International investment OECD Trade & Agriculture 26 13
  • 14. Key issues and uncertainties • Traditional uncertainties: – Weather and economic stability – Developments in trade and domestic policies • Biofuels policies and biofuel developments • Food security and climate change • Increased price volatility OECD Trade & Agriculture 27 OECD Trade and Agriculture www.oecd.org/agriculture Contact tad.contact@oecd.org OECD Trade & Agriculture 28 14