The document summarizes projections from the 2011-2020 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook report. It finds that global agricultural production and trade will increase over the projection period, driven by population and income growth in developing countries. Commodity prices are projected to remain higher on average than the previous decade. Production growth will concentrate in developing regions like Latin America and Eastern Europe, while trade of many agricultural products like vegetable oils and rice is expected to rise 10-30%.
1) Global agricultural prospects are good with higher average prices, increasing production, and expanding trade expected over the next decade.
2) However, rising production costs due to increasing input prices, greater market and price volatility, and constraints on water and other resources pose challenges.
3) Agricultural productivity growth, which is essential to meeting rising global food demand, is projected to slow compared to the previous decade due to these factors. Governments and policies can help address these issues through investments in innovation, sustainability, and risk management programs.
Presentation of Wayne Jones, OECD, at Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources...Fertilizers Europe
The document discusses global prospects for agriculture between 2011-2020. It finds that there will likely be higher average commodity prices, growing global food demand, an increasing market for biofuels, and expanding agricultural trade. However, rising production costs, environmental pressures, and greater output volatility may pose challenges. Slower global agricultural output growth is also expected. Governments are encouraged to boost innovation, improve sustainability, facilitate risk management, and develop enabling policies to support productivity growth in developing countries.
"Public Sector Budget Allocation to Agriculture and Effeciency of Resource Use: A Review of Status, Trends and Implications." presentation by Babatunde Omilola at the CAADP Donors and Partners Meeting, Sept. 6, 2009.
Public Sector Research Priorities for Sustainable Food Security by Gerald Nelson, IFPRI and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, FAO at the Food Security Futures I Conference, on 11 April 2013 in Dublin, Ireland.
Mike Bushell - Threats to Food Security and Food Chain Livelihoods from Weeds...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Global population growth and changes in diets are increasing demand for food. Weeds, pests and diseases cause major crop losses and threaten food security. Crop protection products have helped increase yields and meet rising demand, but new issues are emerging. Integrated approaches including chemicals, cultural practices and biological controls are needed to sustainably intensify agriculture and ensure adequate, safe and nutritious food supplies.
This document outlines priorities for public sector research on food security and nutrition. It notes that 850 million people are undernourished, 28% of children are stunted, and 2 billion people are micronutrient deficient. It also discusses the double burden of malnutrition, with 1.4 billion people overweight and 500 million obese. The document recommends agricultural research priorities like productivity growth for staples and non-staples, considering dietary quality in breeding objectives, and partnerships across sectors to address malnutrition holistically.
The document discusses challenges and opportunities for achieving global food security through sustainable agriculture and innovation. It notes rising food insecurity, prices, and competition for land and water. Key drivers of future demand include population and income growth while supply is constrained by land and water scarcity and climate change impacts. Strategies discussed include agricultural technology and research to boost productivity, as well as integrated soil management, irrigation improvements, and crop breeding innovations. Modeling tools can assess impacts and guide development of location-specific solutions.
1) Global agricultural prospects are good with higher average prices, increasing production, and expanding trade expected over the next decade.
2) However, rising production costs due to increasing input prices, greater market and price volatility, and constraints on water and other resources pose challenges.
3) Agricultural productivity growth, which is essential to meeting rising global food demand, is projected to slow compared to the previous decade due to these factors. Governments and policies can help address these issues through investments in innovation, sustainability, and risk management programs.
Presentation of Wayne Jones, OECD, at Food, Fertilizers and Natural Resources...Fertilizers Europe
The document discusses global prospects for agriculture between 2011-2020. It finds that there will likely be higher average commodity prices, growing global food demand, an increasing market for biofuels, and expanding agricultural trade. However, rising production costs, environmental pressures, and greater output volatility may pose challenges. Slower global agricultural output growth is also expected. Governments are encouraged to boost innovation, improve sustainability, facilitate risk management, and develop enabling policies to support productivity growth in developing countries.
"Public Sector Budget Allocation to Agriculture and Effeciency of Resource Use: A Review of Status, Trends and Implications." presentation by Babatunde Omilola at the CAADP Donors and Partners Meeting, Sept. 6, 2009.
Public Sector Research Priorities for Sustainable Food Security by Gerald Nelson, IFPRI and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, FAO at the Food Security Futures I Conference, on 11 April 2013 in Dublin, Ireland.
Mike Bushell - Threats to Food Security and Food Chain Livelihoods from Weeds...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Global population growth and changes in diets are increasing demand for food. Weeds, pests and diseases cause major crop losses and threaten food security. Crop protection products have helped increase yields and meet rising demand, but new issues are emerging. Integrated approaches including chemicals, cultural practices and biological controls are needed to sustainably intensify agriculture and ensure adequate, safe and nutritious food supplies.
This document outlines priorities for public sector research on food security and nutrition. It notes that 850 million people are undernourished, 28% of children are stunted, and 2 billion people are micronutrient deficient. It also discusses the double burden of malnutrition, with 1.4 billion people overweight and 500 million obese. The document recommends agricultural research priorities like productivity growth for staples and non-staples, considering dietary quality in breeding objectives, and partnerships across sectors to address malnutrition holistically.
The document discusses challenges and opportunities for achieving global food security through sustainable agriculture and innovation. It notes rising food insecurity, prices, and competition for land and water. Key drivers of future demand include population and income growth while supply is constrained by land and water scarcity and climate change impacts. Strategies discussed include agricultural technology and research to boost productivity, as well as integrated soil management, irrigation improvements, and crop breeding innovations. Modeling tools can assess impacts and guide development of location-specific solutions.
Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...copppldsecretariat
Presentation from the Livestock Inter-Agency Donor Group (IADG) Meeting 2010. 4-5 May 2010 Italy, Rome IFAD Headquarters.
The event involved approximately 45 representatives from the international partner agencies to discuss critical needs for livestock development and research issues for the coming decade.
[ Originally posted on http://www.cop-ppld.net/cop_knowledge_base ]
This document provides a summary of results for JBS S.A. for 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2012. It includes the following key points in 3 sentences:
JBS reported consolidated net revenue of R$75.7 billion for 2012, a 22.5% increase over 2011, with EBITDA of R$4.4 billion, a 40% increase over 2011. For the fourth quarter of 2012, JBS reported net revenue of R$21.9 billion, a 29% increase over the same period in 2011, with EBITDA of R$1.17 billion, a 26% increase over 4Q11. Leverage decreased to 3.4x at the end of 2012 from 4
This document summarizes key supply and demand factors affecting agricultural commodity markets. It discusses current world stock levels for corn, wheat, and soybeans being at extremely low levels compared to 10-year averages. Recent events impacting prices of these commodities are outlined. The weak U.S. dollar is identified as a major driver of increasing commodity prices. Analysis of index fund and non-commercial trader positions in these markets finds little evidence their participation is adversely affecting prices. Margin levels have risen along with increased volatility in these markets.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. The document discusses GDP reporting, components, and measurement in the US. It provides data on US GDP from 1995-2010, showing steady growth except for declines in 1998 and 2008-2009. Sectors like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports influence GDP. The income and expenditure approaches are used to calculate GDP.
A spatial analysis: creating similarity domains for targeted research sites i...Joanna Hicks
This spatial analysis was commissioned by ACIAR to develop similarity domains for targeted research sites in Zimbabwe based on climate, production, market access, and population data. The objectives were to enhance adoption of farming technologies and assist funding bodies to target high-impact regions. Climate, soil, population, and other data layers were overlaid to create six similarity domains centered around existing research sites. Agricultural potential analysis showed a large yield gap between current low-input yields and simulated high-input yields across all domains, indicating room for improvement through investments and interventions.
Mainstreaming agribusiness incubation for inclusive developmentKadin5
The document discusses the need to create an enabling environment for agribusiness incubation in Africa. It notes projections of increasing food prices and insecurity if agricultural production does not keep pace with population growth. It argues Africa has the land and other resources to respond to these challenges if the right policies are put in place. This includes mainstreaming agribusiness incubation through public-private partnerships and developing an investment pipeline for agriculture. The document draws on reports calling for private sector engagement and developing inclusive business models to drive agricultural transformation.
John Michael Staatz - Agricultural price volatility: causes, impacts & policy...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
This document summarizes a presentation on agricultural price volatility. It discusses the causes of volatility, including supply and demand shocks as well as government trade policies. On the supply side, weather events, low stock levels, and trade restrictions can exacerbate volatility. Rising incomes have made demand more inelastic. The presentation also outlines actions that could help reduce volatility, such as reducing trade barriers and improving market information.
With Indian agri-food sector becoming a hotbed for MNC investment, we look at how agribusiness can help in improving the state of Indian agriculture and the need for policy regulations. The success of NIABI in furthering agribusiness opportunities through technology commercialization shows that the incubator network can play a pivotal role in promoting agribusiness in the country. A favourable environment supporting agribusiness and incubators needs to be developed so as to promote the sector.
Livestock production and poverty alleviation in arid and semi-arid tropica...ILRI
Presented by Carlos Seré, Augustine Ayantunde, Alan Duncan, Ade Freeman, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, and Iain Wright at the XXI International Grassland Congress and VIII International Rangeland Congress, held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China from 29 June - 5 July 2008
Launch of IFPRI’s 2012 Global Food Policy Report with Shenggen Fan, Director General of IFPRI; Mary Bohman, Administrator of the Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture; Michael Elliott, President and CEO of ONE; Andrew Steer, President and CEO of World Resources Institute. IFPRI, 14 March 2013
1) The document discusses Carl Casale's presentation at the 19th Annual Chemical Conference on September 20, 2006.
2) It provides an overview of increasing global demand for grain and how this is leading to fundamental shifts favoring corn and soybean production in the US.
3) The presentation outlines how farmers' seed purchasing decisions are driven by maximizing yield potential through high-performing seeds and crop protection traits.
Presentation built in the context of a real estate class taken at Brandeis International Business School.
In the perspective of a meeting with investors, the presentation was created to help gather investments of $100M split between three projects in China.
The Rethinking US Agricultural Policy: Changing Course to Secure Farmer Livelihoods Worldwide slideshow gives a brief overview of policy barriers farmers face and smart solutions.
The document provides an overview of GIS activities at ILRI. It discusses that GIS is used for a wide variety of research projects within different themes at ILRI. It also describes GIS services such as data management, advice, capacity building, and data sharing. The document then highlights several past GIS outputs from 2008 and planned GIS activities for 2009 and beyond, covering topics such as livestock production systems, climate change impacts, vulnerability analysis, and disease mapping.
Monsanto announced the acquisition of Seminis, a leading global vegetable and fruit seed company, for $1.4 billion plus a performance-based payment of up to $125 million. The acquisition supports Monsanto's strategy of shifting from crop chemicals to seeds and traits. It provides Monsanto with a ready-made leading position in the high-growth vegetable seed segment. The deal is expected to be accretive to earnings and free cash flow in fiscal year 2006 and close in the third quarter of fiscal year 2005 pending regulatory approvals.
This document discusses the challenges and opportunities facing middle-income countries as global wealth shifts. It notes that while shifting wealth has created opportunities through reduced poverty and new development resources, middle-income countries face challenges around productivity growth, social cohesion, environmental sustainability, and maintaining fiscal revenue levels. Specific challenges discussed include the risk of falling into a "middle income trap" with slowing growth, rising inequality and labor disputes, high youth unemployment in Africa, and tax revenues generally being lower in Latin American countries compared to OECD nations.
Global business management - Topic 1: Global economy and international businessGrenville Lannon
1. The document discusses key concepts related to the global economy and international business, including globalization, economic indicators such as GDP and population trends, and unemployment.
2. GDP per capita, population growth rates and shifts, and unemployment rates can provide important insights for understanding business conditions and opportunities in different markets.
3. The scale and nature of international business is defined, and factors like the role of governments and trade organizations that influence international business are introduced.
This document summarizes Colin I. Welsh's presentation on the global energy outlook. It finds that (1) global oil demand is outstripping supply due to reservoir depletion and underinvestment, leaving little spare production capacity. (2) Unconventional resources and offshore fields will make up an increasing share of global supply. (3) $550 billion or more in annual E&P spending is needed to meet rising demand, but spending trends have lagged. Aberdeen is well-positioned to benefit from opportunities in the global energy industry.
Meeting the Needs of South Africa’s Ag-Chem Marketagbiz
Dr John Purchase presented at the AgChem Asia Summit on Meeting South Africa's Ag-Chem Market.
This presentation addresses:
Overview of South Africa’s agriculture landscape
Overview of its pesticide demand
Identifying opportunities for trade and future business development
Market analysis: Understanding what works and what doesn’t
Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Overview of Key Issues, Drivers, Consequen...copppldsecretariat
Presentation from the Livestock Inter-Agency Donor Group (IADG) Meeting 2010. 4-5 May 2010 Italy, Rome IFAD Headquarters.
The event involved approximately 45 representatives from the international partner agencies to discuss critical needs for livestock development and research issues for the coming decade.
[ Originally posted on http://www.cop-ppld.net/cop_knowledge_base ]
This document provides a summary of results for JBS S.A. for 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2012. It includes the following key points in 3 sentences:
JBS reported consolidated net revenue of R$75.7 billion for 2012, a 22.5% increase over 2011, with EBITDA of R$4.4 billion, a 40% increase over 2011. For the fourth quarter of 2012, JBS reported net revenue of R$21.9 billion, a 29% increase over the same period in 2011, with EBITDA of R$1.17 billion, a 26% increase over 4Q11. Leverage decreased to 3.4x at the end of 2012 from 4
This document summarizes key supply and demand factors affecting agricultural commodity markets. It discusses current world stock levels for corn, wheat, and soybeans being at extremely low levels compared to 10-year averages. Recent events impacting prices of these commodities are outlined. The weak U.S. dollar is identified as a major driver of increasing commodity prices. Analysis of index fund and non-commercial trader positions in these markets finds little evidence their participation is adversely affecting prices. Margin levels have risen along with increased volatility in these markets.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. The document discusses GDP reporting, components, and measurement in the US. It provides data on US GDP from 1995-2010, showing steady growth except for declines in 1998 and 2008-2009. Sectors like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports influence GDP. The income and expenditure approaches are used to calculate GDP.
A spatial analysis: creating similarity domains for targeted research sites i...Joanna Hicks
This spatial analysis was commissioned by ACIAR to develop similarity domains for targeted research sites in Zimbabwe based on climate, production, market access, and population data. The objectives were to enhance adoption of farming technologies and assist funding bodies to target high-impact regions. Climate, soil, population, and other data layers were overlaid to create six similarity domains centered around existing research sites. Agricultural potential analysis showed a large yield gap between current low-input yields and simulated high-input yields across all domains, indicating room for improvement through investments and interventions.
Mainstreaming agribusiness incubation for inclusive developmentKadin5
The document discusses the need to create an enabling environment for agribusiness incubation in Africa. It notes projections of increasing food prices and insecurity if agricultural production does not keep pace with population growth. It argues Africa has the land and other resources to respond to these challenges if the right policies are put in place. This includes mainstreaming agribusiness incubation through public-private partnerships and developing an investment pipeline for agriculture. The document draws on reports calling for private sector engagement and developing inclusive business models to drive agricultural transformation.
John Michael Staatz - Agricultural price volatility: causes, impacts & policy...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
This document summarizes a presentation on agricultural price volatility. It discusses the causes of volatility, including supply and demand shocks as well as government trade policies. On the supply side, weather events, low stock levels, and trade restrictions can exacerbate volatility. Rising incomes have made demand more inelastic. The presentation also outlines actions that could help reduce volatility, such as reducing trade barriers and improving market information.
With Indian agri-food sector becoming a hotbed for MNC investment, we look at how agribusiness can help in improving the state of Indian agriculture and the need for policy regulations. The success of NIABI in furthering agribusiness opportunities through technology commercialization shows that the incubator network can play a pivotal role in promoting agribusiness in the country. A favourable environment supporting agribusiness and incubators needs to be developed so as to promote the sector.
Livestock production and poverty alleviation in arid and semi-arid tropica...ILRI
Presented by Carlos Seré, Augustine Ayantunde, Alan Duncan, Ade Freeman, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, and Iain Wright at the XXI International Grassland Congress and VIII International Rangeland Congress, held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China from 29 June - 5 July 2008
Launch of IFPRI’s 2012 Global Food Policy Report with Shenggen Fan, Director General of IFPRI; Mary Bohman, Administrator of the Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture; Michael Elliott, President and CEO of ONE; Andrew Steer, President and CEO of World Resources Institute. IFPRI, 14 March 2013
1) The document discusses Carl Casale's presentation at the 19th Annual Chemical Conference on September 20, 2006.
2) It provides an overview of increasing global demand for grain and how this is leading to fundamental shifts favoring corn and soybean production in the US.
3) The presentation outlines how farmers' seed purchasing decisions are driven by maximizing yield potential through high-performing seeds and crop protection traits.
Presentation built in the context of a real estate class taken at Brandeis International Business School.
In the perspective of a meeting with investors, the presentation was created to help gather investments of $100M split between three projects in China.
The Rethinking US Agricultural Policy: Changing Course to Secure Farmer Livelihoods Worldwide slideshow gives a brief overview of policy barriers farmers face and smart solutions.
The document provides an overview of GIS activities at ILRI. It discusses that GIS is used for a wide variety of research projects within different themes at ILRI. It also describes GIS services such as data management, advice, capacity building, and data sharing. The document then highlights several past GIS outputs from 2008 and planned GIS activities for 2009 and beyond, covering topics such as livestock production systems, climate change impacts, vulnerability analysis, and disease mapping.
Monsanto announced the acquisition of Seminis, a leading global vegetable and fruit seed company, for $1.4 billion plus a performance-based payment of up to $125 million. The acquisition supports Monsanto's strategy of shifting from crop chemicals to seeds and traits. It provides Monsanto with a ready-made leading position in the high-growth vegetable seed segment. The deal is expected to be accretive to earnings and free cash flow in fiscal year 2006 and close in the third quarter of fiscal year 2005 pending regulatory approvals.
This document discusses the challenges and opportunities facing middle-income countries as global wealth shifts. It notes that while shifting wealth has created opportunities through reduced poverty and new development resources, middle-income countries face challenges around productivity growth, social cohesion, environmental sustainability, and maintaining fiscal revenue levels. Specific challenges discussed include the risk of falling into a "middle income trap" with slowing growth, rising inequality and labor disputes, high youth unemployment in Africa, and tax revenues generally being lower in Latin American countries compared to OECD nations.
Global business management - Topic 1: Global economy and international businessGrenville Lannon
1. The document discusses key concepts related to the global economy and international business, including globalization, economic indicators such as GDP and population trends, and unemployment.
2. GDP per capita, population growth rates and shifts, and unemployment rates can provide important insights for understanding business conditions and opportunities in different markets.
3. The scale and nature of international business is defined, and factors like the role of governments and trade organizations that influence international business are introduced.
This document summarizes Colin I. Welsh's presentation on the global energy outlook. It finds that (1) global oil demand is outstripping supply due to reservoir depletion and underinvestment, leaving little spare production capacity. (2) Unconventional resources and offshore fields will make up an increasing share of global supply. (3) $550 billion or more in annual E&P spending is needed to meet rising demand, but spending trends have lagged. Aberdeen is well-positioned to benefit from opportunities in the global energy industry.
Meeting the Needs of South Africa’s Ag-Chem Marketagbiz
Dr John Purchase presented at the AgChem Asia Summit on Meeting South Africa's Ag-Chem Market.
This presentation addresses:
Overview of South Africa’s agriculture landscape
Overview of its pesticide demand
Identifying opportunities for trade and future business development
Market analysis: Understanding what works and what doesn’t
EMERGING TRENDS and SCENARIOS for AFRICAN AGRICULTURERUFORUM
1. The document discusses emerging trends in African agriculture, including the "rediscovery" of agriculture's role in development and changes in agricultural structure.
2. It notes trends toward commercialized agriculture linked into agri-food business systems and concerns about food security at household levels.
3. Africa has significant agricultural potential but will need to meet growing global and local food demand while navigating trade agreements and improving logistics to access markets.
Enhancing resilience and promoting development in the horn of africa essp2
1) The Horn of Africa faces recurring droughts that interact with population growth, climate change, and shrinking lands to threaten pastoralist livelihoods.
2) While pastoralism remains important, diversification into urban jobs, irrigation, and education can boost resilience by providing alternatives to pastoralism.
3) Strategic investments in irrigation, infrastructure, and education delivery models can promote development and support both pastoralists and alternative livelihoods in the region.
Poland has a population of 38.1 million people that is concentrated in urban areas and has experienced a slight decrease in population. The economy relies heavily on manufacturing and has experienced steady GDP growth in recent years. Poland maintains positive relations with Western countries like the U.S. and is a strong supporter of NATO.
A Ringside View of the Pharma Industry by Ranjit ShahaniVALUExIndia
http://valuexindia.com - On day 2 of VALUEx India 2011, Ranjit Shahani addressed the group. Ranjit Shahani is Vice Chairman and MD of Novartis India.
He has made significant contributions in consolidating the Company’s pharmaceuticals business during the critical integration phase pre and post formation of Novartis India Limited.
As President of Organisation of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI), he has been in the forefront in creating awareness of the challenges facing the Pharmaceuticals industry and how patents serve as innovation growth drivers.
During his presentation, Ranjit Shahani shared his thoughts on the pharma opportunity in India. Specifically, he shared his views, based on his unique insight as a leader in the industry, issues such as how pharma companies can drive innovation, leverage the dynamics of emerging markets to becomes leaders in innovation, and provide affordable and profitable health care in low income countries
ReSAKSS Regional Analysis on Agricultural Expenditures and Agricultural Policy Bias: East and Central Africa", presentation by Babatunde Omilola and Melissa Lambert. April, 2009.
1) The document discusses global food security and agricultural productivity trends from 1950-2050.
2) It notes that from 1950-2000, called the "Age of Abundance", global food supply grew faster than demand, keeping prices low due to steady productivity gains.
3) Looking ahead to 2050, it estimates global food demand will need to increase 1.3% annually, and questions whether productivity can continue growing fast enough to meet this demand sustainably.
1) Agriculture is key to reducing poverty and hunger in developing regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, where it accounts for two-thirds of employment and one-third of GDP.
2) Past successes like the Green Revolution in Asia doubled food production, saved lives, and helped reduce poverty by nearly 20% in India in just two decades through increased agricultural productivity.
3) Successful agricultural transformation requires policy reforms, investments in research and technology development, and infrastructure like roads and irrigation.
Significance of the Problem,Africa needs support to:Revitalize economic growth and improve livelihoods of citizens through Agriculture with focus on Cassava,Why cassava? Objectives and Expected Results
Discovery of Crude Oil in Nigeria; A Blessing or a Cursebolawafadoju
The document discusses how crude oil in Nigeria has had both positive and negative economic, social, and environmental impacts. It has generated substantial revenues but also led to overdependence on oil, neglect of other sectors, pollution, and health issues. While oil brought initial prosperity, it has contributed to poverty, unemployment, and a lack of development in other areas despite Nigeria's significant oil wealth and status as a top oil producer. The future depends on diversifying the economy, supporting other sectors like agriculture, holding government accountable, and properly managing oil resources and revenues for the benefit of all Nigerians.
This document provides an overview of Indonesia's agricultural sector development from 1961 to 2001 and beyond. It analyzes growth in output, inputs, and total factor productivity during different periods. The Old Order era from 1961-1965 saw a focus on machinery expansion that did not lead to steady growth. The New Order era from 1966-1998 brought government intervention and 5-year plans that supported steady input and output increases. The reform era saw a drop in inputs and productivity during the financial crisis of 1999-2001 but efforts to stabilize the economy and support farmers. Productivity reached record highs after 2003.
Jerzy Plewa, Deputy Director General for International Affairs, DG Agriculture and Rural Development
14th May 2008, Royal Museum for Central Africa in Tervuren, Belgium
Chris Lythgo - Semiochemicals: Current review programme - initial comments an...cropprotection
The document discusses some key issues with semiochemical active substance dossiers submitted for evaluation including:
1) A lack of detailed specifications and supporting analytical data for both active substances and impurities.
2) Sources of active substances are not always defined with specific plant locations.
3) Methods of manufacture are sometimes missing or lack detail.
4) Guidance on straight chain lepidopteran pheromones could be accepted except the trigger dose appears to be based on a personal communication rather than peer reviewed literature.
5) For other semiochemicals, comparisons to natural background levels need to be supported by measurable data from peer reviewed scientific literature.
Csaba Szentes - Micro-organisms: Part II: E-fate and ecotoxcropprotection
This document discusses the data requirements and potential data gaps for assessing the environmental fate and ecotoxicity of micro-organisms. It notes that experimental data are normally required unless an assessment can be made based on available information. Weak dossiers lacking data or sufficient justification from literature are identified as an issue. The key data requirements include information on persistence, mobility, effects on birds, aquatic organisms, bees, and other non-target organisms. Potential data gaps include a lack of data on natural background concentrations, persistence in water, and impacts of repeated applications over time.
Danièle Court Marques - Microorganisms - Part I: Toxicological Aspectscropprotection
The document discusses key issues regarding the toxicological assessment of microorganisms as part of Europe's review of ensuring safe food. Specifically, it raises questions about [1] the potential production of unknown secondary toxic metabolites during production, [2] how to assess risk from possible pathogenic contaminants in the absence of acceptable levels, and [3] the level of detail needed for analytical methods to identify strains.
Stephanie Bopp - GD on aquatic ecotoxicologycropprotection
This document outlines the background and plans for revising the Guidance Document on Aquatic Ecotoxicology. It discusses the need to update the current guidance to align with new regulations and data requirements. The revision will take a modular approach, beginning with practical guidance on topics where "building blocks" already exist. The first module will focus on a tiered risk assessment for aquatic organisms in edge-of-field surface waters. Further modules will address topics like combined exposure/effect modelling, sediment organisms, and multiple stress assessment. The working group is currently drafting the first module and plans to seek public comment on the draft guidance in October 2012.
This document discusses the EU Commission's request for EFSA to provide a scientific opinion and guidance on risk assessment of plant protection products (pesticides) on bees. It outlines the composition of the working group, terms of reference, and proposed chapters to cover introduction, protection goals, exposure assessment, chronic toxicity from low doses, test methods, cumulative/synergistic effects, and risk assessment methodology for honeybees, bumblebees and solitary bees. It provides details on the key sections including identifying the most exposed bee categories and life stages, major exposure routes, and proposing a new method to assess cumulative toxicity from long-term low exposures.
Franz Streissl - The revision of the GD on terrestrial ecotoxicologycropprotection
The document discusses the revision of the EFSA Guidance Document on terrestrial ecotoxicology. It provides background on EFSA taking over responsibility from the European Commission to revise existing guidance documents. It outlines the topics identified through a public consultation and Member State survey to be priority areas for updating the terrestrial guidance documents, including non-target organism risk assessment, effects of multiple exposures, and linking exposure to effects. The mandate for revision includes developing guidance on risk assessment for non-target arthropods, in-soil organisms, non-target plants, and amphibians/reptiles. Overarching issues for harmonization between guidance documents are also identified.
1) The document outlines EFSA's work on developing guidance documents for estimating soil degradation rates, soil exposure concentrations, emissions from protected crop systems, and groundwater exposure assessments.
2) EFSA has published opinions and supporting documents on estimating soil degradation rates and soil exposure and is developing guidance documents on these topics for 2013-2014.
3) EFSA is also developing a new guidance document on estimating emissions from protected crop systems based on published opinions and reports, with the guidance foreseen for 2013.
4) EFSA received mandates from the European Commission for two opinions on the FOCUS groundwater report to evaluate lower and higher tier assessment recommendations, with opinions planned for adoption in 2013.
The document discusses the PPR Panel guidance on using probabilistic methodology to model dietary exposure to pesticide residues. It will provide guidance on how cumulative exposure varies across populations for acute and chronic exposure scenarios. It details basic and refined probabilistic modeling approaches and notes the guidance will be adopted in June 2012 after two public consultations. Next steps include EFSA developing more detailed guidance documents on specific scenarios in cooperation with the Commission and Member States.
This document discusses the Panel on Plant Protection Products' (PPR Panel) work on cumulative risk assessment of pesticides. It outlines the legislative background requiring consideration of cumulative and synergistic effects of pesticides. It describes the PPR Panel's past scientific opinions developing methodologies for cumulative assessment of pesticides with similar and dissimilar modes of action. It also lists current and planned activities, including developing guidance on probabilistic exposure modeling and identifying cumulative assessment groups of pesticides. Finally, it discusses emerging work on assessing cumulative exposure from non-dietary routes.
Hans Steinkellner - Metabolites for dietary risk assessmentcropprotection
The document discusses tools for assessing the toxicological relevance of pesticide metabolites for dietary risk assessment. It summarizes several EFSA projects evaluating the applicability of thresholds of toxicological concern, quantitative structure-activity relationships, and the impact of metabolism on toxicity for this purpose. The projects concluded that thresholds of toxicological concern are appropriate for assessing metabolite risk and that combinations of models may help determine genotoxicity. A draft scientific opinion will apply these tools in case studies and address uncertainties to derive acute and chronic exposure thresholds for metabolites.
Istvan Sebestyen - Workers operators bystanders and residentscropprotection
The document provides background on EFSA's efforts to develop guidance on pesticide exposure assessment. It summarizes EFSA's process of gathering input, conducting public consultations, and drafting the guidance document and related scientific opinion between 2006-2010. The main contents of the scientific opinion are outlined, including defining the scope, reviewing legal requirements, current risk assessment methods, and proposed new approaches for assessing acute risk and accounting for statistical variability.
Wolfgang Reinert - Guidance on guidance document developmentcropprotection
This document outlines a proposed guidance on developing guidance documents. It would define the process for creating and revising guidance documents, including establishing competencies, drafting steps, adoption procedures, and application dates. The guidance aims to improve quality, usefulness, and transparency by clarifying roles, avoiding duplication, and communicating the process to authorities and stakeholders. A stepwise approach is recommended that identifies needs, produces concept papers, allows for discussion and adoption, and publishes the final documents.
Luc Mohimont - Priorities of the PPR panelcropprotection
The PPR Panel is responsible for providing EFSA's scientific opinions on pesticides. Composed of 21 members with a 3-year renewable mandate, it is supported by working groups of external experts. The PPR Panel adopts scientific opinions, guidance documents, and statements on areas like human and environmental risk assessment of pesticides. It has adopted 58 opinions since 2004, including 41 on generic issues and guidance and 17 on specific compounds. Guidance development will increasingly be handled by EFSA working groups including PPR Panel experts. The PPR Panel has ongoing mandates through 2017 on topics like aquatic ecotoxicology and terrestrial ecotoxicology.
Aija Kazocina - Update on risk assessment of MRLscropprotection
The document provides an update on EFSA's progress in assessing maximum pesticide residue limits (MRLs) according to Articles 10 and 12 of Regulation (EC) No 396/2005. [1] EFSA is responsible for assessing new MRL proposals under Article 10 and reviewing existing MRLs under Article 12 to ensure they are safe for consumers. [2] From 2008-2012, EFSA assessed 432 new MRL applications under Article 10 and is ongoing in its review of existing MRLs for 167 substances approved before 2008 and 243 approved after under Article 12. [3] The document notes some priorities and challenges for applicants in the MRL assessment process.
Daniela Brocca - Pesticide residues in food: Monitoring programmes in Europe ...cropprotection
The document summarizes monitoring programs and findings related to pesticide residues in food in Europe. It discusses the legal framework for monitoring in EU countries, EFSA's annual reports on pesticide residues, and a new EU data collection system. The main findings from EFSA's 2009 annual report are that over 97% of samples did not exceed maximum residue levels, with exceedances more common in imported and unprocessed foods. EFSA also conducts cumulative risk assessments of pesticide residues.
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Pavel Vavra
1. OECD‐
OECD‐FAO
Agricultural Outlook 2011‐2020
Agricultural Outlook 2011‐
Pavel Vavra
OECD Trade and Agriculture
The Outlook for EU Agriculture, COPA-COGECA, Brussels, 29 June, 2011
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
• Agricultural Outlook ‐ a set of
conditional projections
published in an OECD‐FAO
bli h d i OECD FAO
annual report
• Comprehensive, dynamic partial
equilibrium model
• The datasets are available at
www.agri‐outlook.org
i tl k
OECD Trade & Agriculture 2
1
2. Key macroeconomic assumptions
• Global economic recovery
underway (fragile in OECD, but
more robust in BRICs)
• 2.2% Inflation in OECD area but
higher elsewhere
• Weak US dollar and higher oil
prices
• Stable policy regimes
OECD Trade & Agriculture 3
Slowdown in population growth
Annual percentage change
OECD Trade & Agriculture 4
2
3. Urbanisation – a key driver
Rural Population Urban Population
9000
8000
7000
• Rural population numbers are
6000
expected to stagnate.
ons
5000
Millio
4000
• All additional population is to 3000
live in urban areas 2000
1000
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
4500
4000
3500
• Move to urban areas to take 3000
Millions
2500
place mainly in developing 2000
countries 1500
1000
500
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Developed urban Developing Urban
OECD Trade & Agriculture 5
World oil prices to remain relatively high
USD/Barrel
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
OECD Trade & Agriculture 6
3
4. Main commodity projections
• Commodity prices in real terms to remain above last
decade average levels
– Income, population and biofuels growth
– Higher cost structure
• Latin America and Eastern Europe are the fastest growing
production regions
• Developing countries driving the global demand and trade
gains
• G
Growing food deficits expected in Sub-Saharan countries
i f d d fi it t di S bS h ti
• Meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar should
experience the highest increases in demand
OECD Trade & Agriculture 7
Most commodity prices at higher average levels
Percentage change in world prices in real terms relative to 2001-2010 base
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
OECD Trade & Agriculture 8
4
5. Production shifts to developing countries
Share of global agricultural and fish production gains
Production gains between 2008/10 - 2020 valued at world reference prices (2004/06)
N.America
10%
Oceania
2%
L.America
21%
Asia&Pacific
45%
W.Europe
3%
E.Europe&C.Asia
7%
N.Africa&M.East
S.S.Africa 3%
9%
0-15% over the decade 15-30% over the decade +30% over the decade
OECD Trade & Agriculture 9
Production shifts to developing countries
Share of global agricultural and fish production gains Sugar, vegetable oil and poultry production
Production gains between 2008/10 - 2020 valued at world reference prices (2004/06) are expected to record the highest growths
SMP
WMP
N.America
10% Cheese
Butter
Oceania
2%
Poultry
Pigmeat
L.America
Beef
21%
Asia&Pacific
45% Fish
Sugar
W.Europe
3% Veget. Oils
E.Europe&C.Asia
EE &C A i Protein meals
7% Oilseeds
N.Africa&M.East
S.S.Africa 3%
9% Rice
Coarse grains
0-15% over the decade 15-30% over the decade +30% over the decade Wheat
0 10 20 30 40
Per cent change: 2020 compared to 2008-2010 average
OECD Trade & Agriculture 10
5
6. Large differences in milk production gains
OECD Trade & Agriculture 11
Fish production growth driven by aquaculture
Capture Aquaculture
Million tonnes
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
OECD Trade & Agriculture 12
6
7. Ethanol production growing steadily
Feedstocks used for ethanol production over the projection period
160
140 Other
120 Sugar beet
100 Non agricultural
feedstock
80 Molasse
60 Wheat
40 Biomass-based
Sugar Cane
20
Coarse grains
-
Bnl 2008- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2010
OECD Trade & Agriculture 13
Strong growth of global biodiesel production
Feedstocks used for biodiesel production over the projection period
Bnl
40
Jatropha
35
30
Non
25 agricultural
feedstock
20
Biomass-
based
15
10
Vegetable oil
5
-
2008-2010011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2
OECD Trade & Agriculture 14
7
8. Biofuels production represents an important share of global
feedstock utilisation
Share of feedstocks used for biofuel production from global production
2020 2008‐2010
Percent
35%
30%
25%
20%
15% + 90 Mt
10%
5%
0%
Sugar cane Vegetable oil Coarse Grains Sugar beet Wheat
OECD Trade & Agriculture 15
Food remains the main driver for wheat
Food Use Feed Use Biofuel Use Other use
Developing 2008/10
+ 34 Mt
Developing 2020
Developed 2008/10
Developed 2020
0 100 200 300 400 500
Million tonnes
World
2008/10
World
2020
0 200 400 600 800
OECD Trade & Agriculture 16
8
9. …while feed and fuel push coarse grain demand up
Food Use Feed Use Biofuel Use Other use
Developing 2008/10
Developing 2020 + 50 Mt
+ 50 Mt
Developed 2008/10
Developed 2020
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Million tonnes + 90 Mt
World
2008/10
World
2020
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400
OECD Trade & Agriculture 17
Driven by economic growth, meat consumption
increases especially in developing countries
Consumption of meat from 2008-10 average to 2020, per cent
World Developing/Developed
Developing
Beef
Developed
D l d
Pork
Poultry
Sheep
0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40
OECD Trade & Agriculture 18
9
10. Outlook for dairy products consumption
Butter Cheese SMP WMP
OECD Trade & Agriculture 19
Per capita consumption evolution differs by product
Per capita consumption of WMP Per capita consumption of cheese
OECD Trade & Agriculture 20
10
11. Global trade to grow by 10-30%
Imports : Share of the import gains Vegetable oils, rice and SMP
trade growing the fastest
N.America
10%
Oceania
L.America
SMP
1%
Asia&Pacif 9% WMP
ic Cheese
37%
Butter
W.Europe
15%
poultry
E.Europe&
C.Asia Pigmeat
S.S.Africa N.Africa& 4% Beef
9% M.East
15%
Fish
Exports: Share of the export gains
Sugar
N.America
13%
Veget. Oils
Oceania
4% Protein meals
Oilseeds
Asia&Paci
fic
38% L.America Rice
27%
Coarse grains
S.S.Africa Wheat
‐1%
E.Europe W.Europe 0 10 20 30 40
N.Africa&
&C.Asia 6%
M.East Per cent change 2020 compared to 2008-2010 average
11%
0%
OECD Trade & Agriculture 21
Sugar exports remain highly concentrated
and lead by Brazil
2008‐10 2020
Million tonnes r.s.e .
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
World Brazil Thailand Australia Mexico India South
Africa
OECD Trade & Agriculture 22
11
12. While sugar imports are more diversified
OECD Emerging economies
Million tonnes r.s.e. Million tonnes r.s.e.
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
European United Korea Japan
China Indonesia Russia India
Union States
2008‐10 2020
OECD Trade & Agriculture 23
Stochastic analysis of projected agricultural production
Impact on world coarse grain prices
• Monte Carlo simulations on yields, oil and fertiliser prices, macroeconomic variables.
• 500 model runs show more upside potential for world coarse grains prices
10% percentile baseline median 90th percentile
USD/t
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
OECD Trade & Agriculture 24
12
13. Key Market Drivers
Income changes impact mainly demand for meat and dairy products
1 % additional income growth p.a. 1% less income growth p.a.
beef and veal
sheep meat
cheese
butter
sugar
poultry meat
whole milk powder
whole milk powder
pork
coarse grains
wheat
vegetable oil
rice
‐2,5% ‐2,0% ‐1,5% ‐1,0% ‐0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5%
Impact of a 1% increase/decrease of annual GDP growth on global commodity consumption (average over projection period)
Yield growth and changes have important impact on global commodity prices
yields increase by 5% yields decrease by 5%
wheat
i
rice
coarse grains
protein meals
poultry meat
oilseeds
‐30% ‐20% ‐10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Impact of 5% increase/decrease in yields of cereals on world commodity prices (average over projection period)
OECD Trade & Agriculture 25
Key Market Drivers
• Demand growth – above all in
developing countries
• C
Convergence i consumption
in ti
patterns
• Developing countries raise meat
consumption
• Increased health and nutrition
concerns
• Supply adjusting to higher
production costs
• International investment
OECD Trade & Agriculture 26
13
14. Key issues and uncertainties
• Traditional uncertainties:
– Weather and economic stability
– Developments in trade and
domestic policies
• Biofuels policies and biofuel
developments
• Food security and climate
change
• Increased price volatility
OECD Trade & Agriculture 27
OECD Trade and Agriculture
www.oecd.org/agriculture
Contact
tad.contact@oecd.org
OECD Trade & Agriculture 28
14