The document discusses regulatory challenges around real-world vehicle emissions testing. It summarizes results from a meta-study of 15 diesel passenger cars that found average NOx emissions were 7 times higher than Euro 6 limits. It also discusses advanced emissions measurement technologies and trends, and various vehicle technologies that can help meet 2020 emissions targets, such as hybrid systems, electric vehicles, and fuel efficiency improvements.

1. Regulatory outlook for real-
world emissions
Vicente Franco, Peter Mock
vicente@theicct.org
International Conference: Engine Optimisation for RDE
20-21 January 2015. NH Hotel Frankfurt-Mörfelden, Germany

2. Regulatory outlook for real-world emissions
 Current challenges: results from Diesel
PC meta-study
 Advanced systems and trends for
emission measurement
 Technologies to meet 2020 targets

3. 3
Real Driving
Emissions
Current challenges:
results from Diesel PC
meta-study

4. ‘Translator’
script
Source
A
Source
B
Source
C
ICCT
ICCT
ICCT
‘Calculator’
functions
MATLAB environment
DB
results
‘Renderer’
functions
IN: PEMS
datasheets
(Excel)
OUT: standard
PEMS charts/tables
Automatic
operation
Manual
operation
PEMS data analysis

5. Windowed emissions
• by CO2 window (assessment of
‘on-road compliance’)
Other
• Time and distance shares
• Transience metrics
Average distance-specific emissions (CO2,
CO, NOX and THC)
• by trip
• by vehicle (collection of trips)
• by operating conditions
• velocity
• acceleration*velocity
• gradient
• exhaust temperature
ICCT
ICCT
ICCT
‘Calculator’
functions
DB
results
PEMS data analysis

6. Diesel PC meta-study
Real-world Emissions Report 2014: Modern Diesel Cars
• Multiple data sources
• 15 vehicles (3 Tier 2 Bin 5 + 12 Euro 6)
• 5 different sources
• 96 trips/ 140 hrs / 6,400 km of recorded data
• One multi-level analysis and reporting framework
• Raw emission factors (trip averages)
• Windowed emissions (‘on-road compliance’)
• Situation-specific emissions
• Instantaneous emissions
http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars

7. ‘Raw’ average distance-specific emissions, by vehicle
Diesel PC meta-study: Overall results
http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars

8. Euro 6 conformity factor for NOX, all vehicles
Meta-study: Results for NOx
Mean CF = 7.1
Best vehicle: 1.0
Worst vehicle: 25

9. Euro 6 conformity factor for CO, all vehicles
Meta-study: Results for CO
Mean CF = 0.40

10. Real-world CO2 ratios, all vehicles
Meta-study: Results for CO2
Mean on-road/type-approval ratio = 1.43

11. Meta-study: Results in more detail

12. Situation-specific analysis: undemanding driving conditions
Meta-study: Results by driving condition

13. NOX emission factors [mg/km]
Meta-study: Results by driving condition

14. Diesel PC meta-study: Results

15. 15
Real-world NOX:Euro 6 Diesel PCs are (on average)
worse than they should have been 15 years ago

16. 16
Real Driving
Emissions
Advanced systems and
tends for emission
measurement

17. 17
From laboratory to road: PEMS makes it possible to
accurately measure real-world emissions
Road tests with PEMS
Chassis dyno measurements
Photo credit: AVL / ERMES Group
Vehicle photos unrelated to the results shown
http://www.theicct.org/use-emissions-testing-light-duty-diesel-vehicles-us

18. 18
Trust is good – control is better!
Vehicle emissions certification/testing in the EU and US
Pre-production testing
Certificate of Conformity
Manufacturer
Conformity tests
about 10% of vehicles
EPA
vehicle design and build 0 km 100,000 km50,000 km
Selective Enforcement Audit +
Confirmatory Road Load Testing
EPA
In-use verification
tests on random sample
Manufacturer
In-use surveillance
random / selected sample
EPA
1
2
3
4
5
Pre-production testing
Certificate of Conformity
Manufacturer
1
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/bought-tiger-got-hello-kitty-how-fix-vehicle-fuel-economy-fraud-china

19. 19
Upon the introduction of CO2 standards for passenger
cars in Europe, emission reduction rates increased
sharply
http://www.theicct.org/co2-emissions-new-passenger-cars-eu-car-manufacturers%E2%80%99-performance-2013

20. 20
The actual CO2 emissions from new cars
are about 30% higher than type-approval values
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/trend-that-cant-continue-europes-car-co2-emissions-gap

21. 21
This means that more than half of CO2 reductions
only happened on paper
http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update

22. 22
A chain is only
as strong...
...as its weakest
link
A solid CO2 regulation requires:
• A modern test procedure
• Independent retests
• On-road testing
• Transparency of test results
Fazit und These zur Diskussion
Photo credit: http://photoopia.com/view/6856-Schwaches+Glied+in+der+Kette.html
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/trend-that-cant-continue-europes-car-co2-emissions-gap
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/will-new-test-procedure-solve-problem-latest-developments-eu-vehicle-testing
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/art-cooking-popcorn-and-2013-eu-statistical-pocketbook
http://www.theicct.org/wltp-how-new-test-procedure-cars-will-affect-fuel-consumption-values-eu
http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update
http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars
http://www.theicct.org/wltp-november2013-update
More info:

23. 23
Real Driving
Emissions
Technologies to meet
2020 targets

24.  There are many different technologies
available to reduce vehicles’ CO2
emissions
 Technical efficiency, low-CO2 options
 Petroleum efficiency
 Gasoline
 Diesel
 Hybrid
 Alternative fuels
 Compressed natural gas
 Biofuels
 Electric-drive
 Plug-in hybrid electric
 Electric
 Fuel cell electric
24Electric
Turbo
Hybrid
Plug-in hybrid
Fuel cell
Stop-start
Advanced
materials and
design
Low rolling
resistance tires
Aerodynamics
Efficient
accessories
Direct injection
Diesel
6+ Speed
Variable valve
controls
Low-friction
lubricants
HFO
1234yf
Ricardo vehicle simulations
Efficiency, low CO2 technologies

25. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%
Additionaldirectmanufacturingcosts[EUR]
relativeto2010baseline
95g/km
corresponding
fleet targets
90g/km
80g/km
70g/km
60g/km
Ford Focus2010
159 g/km
2012
109 g/km
-31%
2010
164 g/km
2012
79 g/km
(hybrid)
-52%
Toyota Yaris
2020
CO2 / fuel consumption
relative to 2010 baseline
95 g/km in 2020:
Fuel cost savings: ≈350-450 € / year [BEUC, 2012]
Avoided oil imports: ≈160 million tons 2020-2030 [EC, 2012]
Reduction in CO2: ≈420 million tons 2020-2030 [EC, 2012]
Investment in technology: <1000 € / vehicle [ICCT, 2013]

26. 26
US EPA / CARB / ICCT
Vehicle computer simulation
RICARDO (Detroit)
Tear-down cost assessment
FEV (Detroit)
ICCT
Vehicle computer simulation
RICARDO (Shoreham + Detroit)
Tear-down cost assessment
FEV (Aachen + Detroit)
Significantly improved method to assess technology potential and costs

27. Accelerating Technology Introduction
Source: 2013 EPA Fuel Economy Trends Report – Cars only
GDI Turbo 6 speed 7+ speed CVT Hybrid
2004 - 4% 5% 0.4% 2% 1%
2005 - 2% 6% 0.4% 3% 2%
2006 - 3% 12% 2% 3% 2%
2007 - 4% 16% 2% 10% 3%
2008 3% 4% 19% 3% 11% 3%
2009 4% 4% 19% 3% 11% 3%
2010 9% 4% 33% 3% 14% 5%
2011 18% 8% 54% 5% 12% 3%
2012 28% 10% 58% 6% 15% 5%
2013 38% 16% 61% 8% 17% 6%

28. 28
Standards drive technology upgrades…
(example: high-selling passenger cars in the US, 2010 to 2014)
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6
Fueleconomy(km/l)
Vehicle footprint (m2)
2014 4-cylinder sedans
2010 4-cylinder sedans
Fusion
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Accord
Camry
Mazda 6
Mazda 6
i-eLOOP
Altima

29. Thank you for your attention!
Vicente Franco, Peter Mock
vicente@theicct.org
International Conference: Engine Optimisation for RDE
20-21 January 2015. NH Hotel Frankfurt-Mörfelden, Germany