Prtr non point estimate method in japan

Yayoi Hayashi
Research Institute for Environmental Strategies, Inc.
2012.7.20

2
1. Overall picture of Estimated Releases Outside
Notification
Release Sources Estimated; Overall Picture
Estimated Releases; Overall Picture
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples
General descriptions
Pesticides
Cars
Paints
Households (detergents; surfactants, insecticides; termite
control agents)
Listed Industries under the Reporting Thresholds
Very Brief Notes on Prefectural Distribution
3. Summary
Keys for Estimating Releases

1. Overall picture
4
Classification
Release
(1,000
t/y)
Compos-
ition
Notified 183 40%
Estimated
Listed
Industries
47 10%
Non-listed
Industries
90 20%
Households 59 13%
Mobile Sources 75 17%
Total 270 60%
Grand Total 453 100%

1. Overall picture
5
0
届出
(
2
1
Release (t/y)
No. Pre-
fectures
21,000 or more 2
14,000 - 21,000 10
7,000 - 14,000 11
0 - 7,000 24

1. Overall picture
6
63
32
14
0.13
14
13
0.019
0.30
0.097
0.98
50
45
17
28
1.9
3.0
15
14
12
8.8
0 50 100 150
toluene
xylene
ethylbenzene
poly(oxyethylene)alkyl ether(alkyl C=12-15)
dichloromethane
n-hexane
n-alkylbenzenesulfonic acid and its salts(alkyl
C=10-14)
chlorodifluoromethane
dichlorobenzene
benzene
Grand Total Top 10 Substances
Notified Estimated
(113)
(77)
(32)
(9.8)
(28)
(16)
(16)
(15)
(14)
(12)
（）: Grand total releases
（1,000 t/y）

1. Overall picture
7
Notified & Estimated Releases for
Specific Class I Designated Chemical Substances (※)
PRTR Substances
Notified
（kg/y）
Estimated（kg/y）
Grand Total
（kg/y）Listed
Industries
Non-listed
Industries
Households
Mobile
Sources
Total
400 benzene 976,095 131,885 776,822 62,243 7,875,720 8,846,670 9,822,765
411 formaldehyde 384,925 614,900 131,413 94,050 6,793,502 7,633,866 8,018,791
305 lead compounds 3,622,822 63,322 40,166 103,488 3,726,310
351 1,3-butadiene 100,117 111 33,360 76,265 2,230,821 2,340,556 2,440,673
332
arsenic and its inorganic
compounds
1,150,558 483 483 1,151,041
309 nickel compounds 498,927 102,241 102,241 601,168
56 ethylene oxide 243,606 134,688 134,688 378,293
94 chloroethylene 231,257 1,800 1,800 233,057
75 cadmium and its compounds 122,543 100 100 122,643
88 chromium(VI) compounds 9,202 3,750 9,243 12,994 22,196
385 2-bromopropane 5,278 0.2 0.2 5,278
394 beryllium and its compounds 17 663 663 680
33 asbestos 0 70 70 70
397 benzylidyne trichloride 0.1 0 0.1
243 dioxins 353,659 34,943 14,824 60 1,000 50,827 404,486
Total 7,345,347 1,053,944 991,005 232,558 16,900,113 19,177,620 26,522,966

8
Example Method Description
1. Paints Top–down Estimated from national shipment
2. Pesticides Semi-top down Estimated from prefectural shipment
3. Cars (hot start) Semi-bottom up Estimated from traffic volume &
emission factor, but only highways are
covered (smaller streets are not)
4. Listed Industries
under the reporting
thresholds
Top-down &
Bottom-up
Combined
One part estimated from national
shipment,
Another part estimated from mean
amounts of substances handled per
business operator
Discussion Points
① Two estimation methods
Top-down & Bottom-up

9
Discussion Points
② In general, the results from Top-down method are better in
terms of uncertainty = preferred method
 Statistics, other data = critical factor
for estimation projects common to all countries
③ When Top-down method is not possible;
 Bottom-up method can be envisaged through sample surveys in
order to gather emission factors, amounts of substances
used, etc.
 it may be necessary to conduct a new set of survey specifically
for PRTR
④ In addition to ①-③ above;
 an estimation result needs to be assorted into notified release &
release outside notification, in order to avoid double-counting

10
Categories Examples of Release Sources
Products containing
substances
Pesticides, paints, adhesives, detergents, etc.
Mobile sources Cars, motorbikes, ships, aircrafts, etc.
Others Drinking water (trihalomethane),
Listed Industries under the reporting
thresholds

11
Release
Sources
Examples of Existing Data Data Source
Databasedon
legal
requirement
National
statistics
Business
Associations’
voluntary
survey
Others
Pesticides Shipment (t/y) by pesticide & prefecture
Active Substances’ contents (%) by
pesticide
“Pesticides Catalogue”
(handbook) published by
Japan Plant Protection
Association
✓
Paints Shipment (t/y) by paint type & application
Standard chemical contents (%) by paint
type & application
Standard emission rate (%) during painting
Voluntary survey by Japan
Paint Manufacturers’
Association ✓
Cars Traffic volume (no. of cars travelled/24h)
by highway & its sector
“Road Traffic Census” by
MLIT ✓
Emission factor (mg/km-travelled) Research by MOE ✓
Listed
Industry
under the
reporting
thresholds
Shipment (t/y) by paint type & application
(same as “Paints” above) etc.
Business associations
✓
Notified release (kg/y) by business
category & substance
“PRTR Data” published by
MOE/METI ✓

12
Release Sources
Examples of Data Specifically
Collected for PRTR
Data Sources
Termite control agents  Volume of substance
(kg/y) used for producing
the agents
Sample survey with
manufacturers by MOE
Railroad (breaking pads’
abrasion etc.)
Number of breaking pads
etc. (piece) containing
asbestos
Survey with railroad
companies by MLIT
Aircrafts Number of landing (time/y)
by airport & fleet type
Survey results compiled by
business association
(Scheduled Airlines
Association of Japan)
Listed Industries under
the reporting thresholds
Volume of substance
(kg/y-business operator)
used by application
Sample survey with
business operators in all
business categories by METI

13
Application
Estimation
division
Source Classifications
Listed
Industries
Non-listed Industries
House-
holdsAgri-
culture
Forestry Services
Rice Rice paddies ✓
Fruits Orchards ✓
Vegetables Crop fields ✓
Others
Households ✓
Golf courses ✓
Forestry ✓
Others ✓ ✓

14
Pesticide
name
Pesticide
A
Pesticide
B
Pesticide
C
Pesticide
D
Pesticide
…
Pesticide
code
10313 10316 1030 10353 10360
Prefecture
Hokkaido 1.6 4.8 - 98.2 2.6
Aomori 13.7 5.0 - 303.4 0.6
Iwate 2.1 9.5 - 15.7 6.9
…

15
Pesticide
code
Pesticide name Active agent Support agent
10809
BPMC/MEP
Emulsion
MEP (251),
BPMC (428)
Xylene (80)
22300
thiram/TPN
wettable powder
TPN (260),
Thiram (268)
N.A.
33987 xxxx powder N.A.
poly(oxyethylene)alkyl
ether(alkyl C=12-15) (407)
44562 xxxx emulsion
pendimethalin (49),
linuron (174)
Xylene (80),
naphthalene (302),
Methyl-naphthalene (438)

16
Content (%) of substance per
pesticide
Release (t/y) by substance,
prefecture & application
Shipment (t/y) by pesticide,
prefecture & application
Composition of used amount
(%) by application (rice, fruits,
vegetables etc.) per pesticide
Shipment (t/y) by
pesticide & prefecture

17
Households
Crop fields
Orchards Rice paddies
Others
Hokkaido Aomori
Iwate National

18
Prefecture
Release (t/y)
Rice
paddies
Orch
ards
Crop
fields
Househ
olds
Golf
courses
Forests Others Total
Hokkaido 17 2 11 4 0 0.1 0.2 34
Aomori 4 6 1 0.5 0.001 0 0.02 12
Iwate 4 3 1 1 0.01 0.1 0.1 9
National
Total
161 145 74 109 1 9 65 564

19
Release Estimation
Combustion Engine
Hot-start ✓
Cold-start ✓
Evaporation ✓
Abrasion
※ not estimated
(necessary data not available)

20
Travelled Distance
(km/y-car)
Release (kg/y-car)
by substance
THC Emission
Factor
(mg/km)
Substance/THC
Ratio (weight %)
By substance

21
Travelling speed (km/h) Travelling speed (km/h)
THCEmissionFactor(mg/km-travelled)
Passenger Cars Trucks
THCEmissionFactor(mg/km-travelled)

22
Gasoline cars
Diesel
passenger
cars
Substance/THC Ratio
(weight %)
Substance/THC Ratio
(weight %)

23
Highway
Obser-
vation
Point
Average number of cars passed in 24 hours (weekdays)
Motor-
bikes
Passenger cars Trucks
Total
CarsPassenger
cars
Busses
Light
trucks
Heavy
trucks
1
Chuo
Express
way
Point A 740 61,099 1,624 12,827 12,341 87,891
Point B 777 62,858 1,270 13,162 13,042 90,332
… … … … … … …
16
National
Route
16
Point A 1,614 47,489 624 13,757 20,163 82,033
Point B 1,805 33,238 215 9,774 13,450 56,677
… … … … … … …
20
National
Route
20
Point A 2,434 25,546 333 9,936 5,034 40,849
Point B 22,589 329 7,028 6,454 36,400
… … … … … … … … …

24
Paint
Application
Releases Outside Notification
Notified
Releases
Non-listed Industries
HouseholdsBuilding Construction
(excluding
building)
Road
pavingHousing
Other
buildings
Building ✓ ✓
Other
construction
✓
Traffic paints ✓
Households ✓
Other
applications
(e.g.
manufacturing)
✓

25
Paint type
Shipment (t/y)
Building
materials
Ships
Cars(new)
Carrepair
Machinery
Metal
product
…
Total
Solvents
Acrylic
Synthetics
Room-
temperature
2,131 1,785 2,432 5,096 585, 766 … 37,125
Bake & Dry … … … … … … … 40,775
Bake & Dry
high solid
… … … … … … … 8,992
… … … … … … … … … …
Solution … … … … … … … … … …
… … … … … … … … … … …
Total 69,680 122,048 192,159 26,497 36,551 118,585 … 1,362,939

26
Paint type
Solvent Plasticizer Pigments Thinner
Subst-
amceA
ubst-
amceB
…
ubst-
amceC
…
ubst-
amceD
…
ubst-
amceE
…
Dilution
Rate
Solvents
Acrylic
Synthetics
Room-
temperature
3% 11% … 0.5% … 0.2% … 8% … 16%
Bake & Dry 2% 8% … - … 5% … 15% … 25%
Bake &Dry
high solid
… … … … … … … … … …
… … … … … … … … … … … …
Solution … … … … … … … … … … … …
… … … … … … … … … … … … …

27
Standard Contents of
Substances (%) by
Paint type
Release (t/y) by
substance
Emission Rate
(%)
National
Shipment (t/y) by
Paint type &
Application
Use (t/y) by
substance

28
Application
Releases Outside
Notification
Non-listed
Industries
Households
Cosmetics ✓
Body soaps ✓
Kitchen detergents etc. ✓
Industrial detergents ✓
Fertilizers ✓

29
Application
Substance
A
Substance
B
… Total
Perfume & medical products 113 29 … 6,602
Body soaps 67 5 … 7,745
Kitchen detergents … … … …
Laundry detergents … … … …
Industrial detergents (kitchens) … … … …
Industrial detergents (laundry &
house cleaning)
… … … …
Fertilizers … … … …
Others … … … …
Total 54,836 3,747 … 199,575

30
Release (t/y) by
substance
Emission Rate
(%)
National
Shipment (t/y) by
Application &
Substance

31
Substance
Shipment (kg/y)
TotalBusiness
use
House-
holds
22 5-amino-1-[2,6-dichloro-4-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]-3-
cyano-4-[(trifluoromethyl)sulfinyl]pyrazole
8,599 8,599
30 n-alkylbenzenesulfonic acid and its salts(alkyl C=10-14) 1,104 1,104
53 ethylbenzene 16 16
57 ethylene glycol monoethyl ether 546 546
64 2-(4-ethoxyphenyl)-2-methylpropyl 3-phenoxybenzyl ether 3,674 500 4,174
80 xylene 6,116 6,116
… … … …
Total 61,751 49,213 110,964

32
Release (t/y) by
substance
Emission Rate
(%)
National
Shipment (t/y) by
Substance

33
Estimated releases
Notified
releases
Amounthandledperyear
perbusinessoperator
1t (0.5t)
21 Number of workers
per business operator

34
2 Approaches Combined
I. Estimation By Release Sources
 Focus on End Products (paints, adhesives, etc.)
 Statistics on shipments are available
II. Estimation Based On Average Amounts Of
Substances Handled
 Focus on Average Amount of Substances Handled
 Data by industry & by substance are specifically collected for
PRTR
※ Releases overlapping 1. above will be subtracted later-on

35
Release Sources Descriptions
1. Paints
Solvents used in paints painted on industrial products,
thinner
2. Adhesives
Solvents used in adhesives for industrial products,
pressure-sensitive tapes, sheets, etc.
3. Printing inks
Solvents used in printing inks for industrial products,
thinners
4. Industrial cleaners Industrial cleaning solvents, dry-cleaning solvents, etc.
5. Rubber glues
Solvents used in adhesives for industrial rubber
products
6. Fuel evaporation Vapor loss at gas stations
7. Chemical feedstock Feedstock, reaction solvent
8. Removers Paint removers
9. Sterilizer, disinfectants Chemical agents to remove microbes
10. Surface finishers Acid agents to clean metal surface etc.
…

36
Releases from business operators < thresholds (kg/y)
in Industry A
= Release from Industry A (kg/y)
…(1)
x Under-thresholds ratio (%) (※)
…(2)

37
Paint type
Shipment (t/y)
Building
materials
Ships
Cars
(new)
Carrepair
Machinery
Metal
product
…
Total
Solvents
Acrylic
Synthetics
Room-
temperature
2,131 1,785 2,432 5,096 585, 766 … 37,125
Bake & Dry … … … … … … … 40,775
Bake & Dry
high solid
… … … … … … … 8,992
… … … … … … … … … …
Solution … … … … … … … … … …
… … … … … … … … … … …
Total 69,680 122,048 192,159 26,497 36,551 118,585 … 1,362,939
Standard Contents
of Substance (%) by
Paint type
In Automobile
Industry
Release (t/y) by substance
In Automobile Industry
Emission Rate (%)
In Automobile
Industry
National
Shipment (t/y)
by Paint type
In Automobile
Industry
Use (t/y) by substance
In Automobile
Industry
Business Category using
Paints e.g. “Cars (new)”
=> Listed Industry e.g.
Automobile Industry

38
Release (t/y) by substance
In Industry A
Under-thresholds ratio (%)
In Industry A
Release (t/y) of business
operators < thresholds by
substance
In Industry A
Data on number of workers
In Industry A
Data on standard amounts of
substances handled per year
In Industry A
(1)

Estimated releases
Notified
releases
Amounthandledperyear
q = 1t
(0.5t)
p = 21
39
Parameters
p q
Workers < 21
Handled amount
< 1t (0.5t)
E1 = A×p×（1-q）
E2 = A×q
A: Release from Industry A
Number of workers
Estimated
releases 1 (E1)
Estimated releases 2 (E2)
Release from
Industry A

40
p q
Workers < 21 Handled amount < 1t (0.5t)
“Economic Census” & other statistics
concerning number of workers per
business operator
Sample survey with business operators
in all business categories, specifically
conducted for PRTR

41

42

43
Rank
Handle per Year
Total Release per Year
1 2 3 4
Chemical Industry
Metal/Machinery
Manufacturing
Other Manufacturing
Non-
Manufacturing
kg/y
Contribut-
ion
kg/y
Contribut-
ion
kg/y
Contribut-
ion
kg/y
Contribut-
ion
1 100kg < 460 0.1% 1,816 0.1% 1,198 0.1% 352 2.3%
2 100～500kg 1,878 0.4% 5,575 0.3% 10,677 0.6% 834 5.5%
3 500kg～1t 1,732 0.4% 19,405 0.9% 11,718 0.7% 445 3.0%
4 1～10t 38,297 8.5% 401,939 18.2% 137,093 7.7% 13,444 89.2%
5 10～100t 230,952 51.0% 1,438,421 65.2% 924,117 51.7%
6 100～1,000t 127,456 28.2% 338,316 15.3% 703,345 39.3%
7 1,000～10,000t 51,832 11.5%
8 10,000 ～100,000t
9 100,000t or more
Grand Total 452,609 100.0% 2,205,471 100.0% 1,788,149 100.0% 15,076 100.0%

44
Rank
Handle per Year
Total Release per Year
1 2 3 4
Chemical Industry
Metal/Machinery
Manufacturing
Other Manufacturing
Non-
Manufacturing
kg/y
Contribut-
ion
kg/y
Contribut-
ion
kg/y
Contribut-
ion
kg/y
Contribut-
ion
1 100kg < 460 0.1% 1,816 0.1% 1,198 0.1% 352 2.3%
2 100～500kg 1,878 0.4% 5,575 0.3% 10,677 0.6% 834 5.5%
3 500kg～1t 1,732 0.4% 19,405 0.9% 11,718 0.7% 445 3.0%
4 1～10t 38,297 8.5% 401,939 18.2% 137,093 7.7% 13,444 89.2%
5 10～100t 230,952 51.0% 1,438,421 65.2% 924,117 51.7%
6 100～1,000t 127,456 28.2% 338,316 15.3% 703,345 39.3%
7 1,000～10,000t 51,832 11.5%
8 10,000 ～100,000t
9 100,000t or more
Grand Total 452,609 100.0% 2,205,471 100.0% 1,788,149 100.0% 15,076 100.0%

45
PRTR Substance Main Application
20 2-aminoethanol Detergents
31 antimony and its compounds Flame retardants
127 chloroform Sterilizers
133 2-ethoxyethyl acetate Solvents for paints, inks, etc.
…

46
No. of business operators <
thresholds by substance
In Industry A
Standard release (kg/y) per
Substance
In Industry A
Release (t/y) of business
operators < thresholds by
substance
In Industry A
Data on standard amounts of
substances handled per year
In Industry A
※ same as Sample Survey
Emission Rate (%) per
Substance
In Industry A
No. of business operators
In Industry A
※ same as “Economic Census”
Rate (%) of business
operators by substance
In Industry A
No. of business operators
which notified PRTR release
by substance
In Industry A
※ PRTR data

47
3 patterns for distribution
① Releases are proportional to industrial activities
 Distribution index based on economic data (e.g. Economic Census, PRTR
Notification Data)
 Ex. Listed Industries < thresholds, Paints etc. (excluding releases from
households)
② Releases are proportional to population or households
 Distribution index based on population data (e.g. Population Census)
 Ex. Paints, Insecticides, etc. (only releases from households)
② Releases are proportional to other index
 Distribution index based on other data (e.g. distance travelled by car,
number of breaking pads)
 Ex. Cars, Railroad Wagons, etc.
② Estimation made at the prefecture level
 Ex. Pesticides, Aircrafts, etc.

3. Summary
48
Keys for Estimating Releases
① Shared interests among stakeholders regarding the target
release sources & substances
 Stakeholders include the regulators and regulated alike
 The interests in estimating which substances and which release sources
are commonly shared
② Availability of statistics and other data
 Data include national statistics on business and population, as well as the
data from the business associations
③ Close collaboration with business associations and inter-
ministerial cooperation
 Especially conducting surveys with enterprises
 Data and statistics may be available from MLIT etc.

☺ Presentation materials are also available in electric forms
☺ Your enquiries are welcome at…
Yayoi Hayashi, Research Division
<y.hayashi@ries.co.jp>
49

Prtr non point estimate method in japan

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