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Prtr non point estimate method in japan

This document provides an overview and examples of techniques used to estimate releases of chemicals outside of notification requirements in Japan. It summarizes the overall picture of estimated releases, which account for 60% of total releases. It then describes two main estimation techniques - top-down and bottom-up. Top-down is preferred when data is available, using national statistics. Bottom-up involves sample surveys. Examples are provided for how releases are estimated for pesticides, mobile sources like cars, paints, and household products using various data sources and emission factors. Keys to the estimations include classifying sources and having substance composition data.

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Yayoi Hayashi Research Institute for Environmental Strategies, Inc. 2012.7.20
2 1. Overall picture of Estimated Releases Outside Notification Release Sources Estimated; Overall Picture Estimated Releases; Overall Picture 2. Estimation Techniques; Examples General descriptions Pesticides Cars Paints Households (detergents; surfactants, insecticides; termite control agents) Listed Industries under the Reporting Thresholds Very Brief Notes on Prefectural Distribution 3. Summary Keys for Estimating Releases
1. Overall picture 3
1. Overall picture 4 Classification Release (1,000 t/y) Compos- ition Notified 183 40% Estimated Listed Industries 47 10% Non-listed Industries 90 20% Households 59 13% Mobile Sources 75 17% Total 270 60% Grand Total 453 100%
1. Overall picture 5 0 届 出 ( 2 1 Release (t/y) No. Pre- fectures 21,000 or more 2 14,000 - 21,000 10 7,000 - 14,000 11 0 - 7,000 24
1. Overall picture 6 63 32 14 0.13 14 13 0.019 0.30 0.097 0.98 50 45 17 28 1.9 3.0 15 14 12 8.8 0 50 100 150 toluene xylene ethylbenzene poly(oxyethylene)alkyl ether(alkyl C=12-15) dichloromethane n-hexane n-alkylbenzenesulfonic acid and its salts(alkyl C=10-14) chlorodifluoromethane dichlorobenzene benzene Grand Total Top 10 Substances Notified Estimated (113) (77) (32) (9.8) (28) (16) (16) (15) (14) (12) （ ）: Grand total releases （1,000 t/y）
1. Overall picture 7 Notified & Estimated Releases for Specific Class I Designated Chemical Substances (※) PRTR Substances Notified （kg/y） Estimated（kg/y） Grand Total （kg/y）Listed Industries Non-listed Industries Households Mobile Sources Total 400 benzene 976,095 131,885 776,822 62,243 7,875,720 8,846,670 9,822,765 411 formaldehyde 384,925 614,900 131,413 94,050 6,793,502 7,633,866 8,018,791 305 lead compounds 3,622,822 63,322 40,166 103,488 3,726,310 351 1,3-butadiene 100,117 111 33,360 76,265 2,230,821 2,340,556 2,440,673 332 arsenic and its inorganic compounds 1,150,558 483 483 1,151,041 309 nickel compounds 498,927 102,241 102,241 601,168 56 ethylene oxide 243,606 134,688 134,688 378,293 94 chloroethylene 231,257 1,800 1,800 233,057 75 cadmium and its compounds 122,543 100 100 122,643 88 chromium(VI) compounds 9,202 3,750 9,243 12,994 22,196 385 2-bromopropane 5,278 0.2 0.2 5,278 394 beryllium and its compounds 17 663 663 680 33 asbestos 0 70 70 70 397 benzylidyne trichloride 0.1 0 0.1 243 dioxins 353,659 34,943 14,824 60 1,000 50,827 404,486 Total 7,345,347 1,053,944 991,005 232,558 16,900,113 19,177,620 26,522,966
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 8 Example Method Description 1. Paints Top–down Estimated from national shipment 2. Pesticides Semi-top down Estimated from prefectural shipment 3. Cars (hot start) Semi-bottom up Estimated from traffic volume & emission factor, but only highways are covered (smaller streets are not) 4. Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds Top-down & Bottom-up Combined One part estimated from national shipment, Another part estimated from mean amounts of substances handled per business operator Discussion Points ① Two estimation methods Top-down & Bottom-up
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 9 Discussion Points ② In general, the results from Top-down method are better in terms of uncertainty = preferred method  Statistics, other data = critical factor for estimation projects common to all countries ③ When Top-down method is not possible;  Bottom-up method can be envisaged through sample surveys in order to gather emission factors, amounts of substances used, etc.  it may be necessary to conduct a new set of survey specifically for PRTR ④ In addition to ①-③ above;  an estimation result needs to be assorted into notified release & release outside notification, in order to avoid double-counting
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 10 Categories Examples of Release Sources Products containing substances Pesticides, paints, adhesives, detergents, etc. Mobile sources Cars, motorbikes, ships, aircrafts, etc. Others Drinking water (trihalomethane), Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 11 Release Sources Examples of Existing Data Data Source Databasedon legal requirement National statistics Business Associations’ voluntary survey Others Pesticides Shipment (t/y) by pesticide & prefecture Active Substances’ contents (%) by pesticide “Pesticides Catalogue” (handbook) published by Japan Plant Protection Association ✓ Paints Shipment (t/y) by paint type & application Standard chemical contents (%) by paint type & application Standard emission rate (%) during painting Voluntary survey by Japan Paint Manufacturers’ Association ✓ Cars Traffic volume (no. of cars travelled/24h) by highway & its sector “Road Traffic Census” by MLIT ✓ Emission factor (mg/km-travelled) Research by MOE ✓ Listed Industry under the reporting thresholds Shipment (t/y) by paint type & application (same as “Paints” above) etc. Business associations ✓ Notified release (kg/y) by business category & substance “PRTR Data” published by MOE/METI ✓
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 12 Release Sources Examples of Data Specifically Collected for PRTR Data Sources Termite control agents  Volume of substance (kg/y) used for producing the agents Sample survey with manufacturers by MOE Railroad (breaking pads’ abrasion etc.) Number of breaking pads etc. (piece) containing asbestos Survey with railroad companies by MLIT Aircrafts Number of landing (time/y) by airport & fleet type Survey results compiled by business association (Scheduled Airlines Association of Japan) Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds Volume of substance (kg/y-business operator) used by application Sample survey with business operators in all business categories by METI
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 13 Application Estimation division Source Classifications Listed Industries Non-listed Industries House- holdsAgri- culture Forestry Services Rice Rice paddies ✓ Fruits Orchards ✓ Vegetables Crop fields ✓ Others Households ✓ Golf courses ✓ Forestry ✓ Others ✓ ✓
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 14 Pesticide name Pesticide A Pesticide B Pesticide C Pesticide D Pesticide … Pesticide code 10313 10316 1030 10353 10360 Prefecture Hokkaido 1.6 4.8 - 98.2 2.6 Aomori 13.7 5.0 - 303.4 0.6 Iwate 2.1 9.5 - 15.7 6.9 …
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 15 Pesticide code Pesticide name Active agent Support agent 10809 BPMC/MEP Emulsion MEP (251), BPMC (428) Xylene (80) 22300 thiram/TPN wettable powder TPN (260), Thiram (268) N.A. 33987 xxxx powder N.A. poly(oxyethylene)alkyl ether(alkyl C=12-15) (407) 44562 xxxx emulsion pendimethalin (49), linuron (174) Xylene (80), naphthalene (302), Methyl-naphthalene (438)
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 16 Content (%) of substance per pesticide Release (t/y) by substance, prefecture & application Shipment (t/y) by pesticide, prefecture & application Composition of used amount (%) by application (rice, fruits, vegetables etc.) per pesticide Shipment (t/y) by pesticide & prefecture
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 17 Households Crop fields Orchards Rice paddies Others Hokkaido Aomori Iwate National
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 18 Prefecture Release (t/y) Rice paddies Orch ards Crop fields Househ olds Golf courses Forests Others Total Hokkaido 17 2 11 4 0 0.1 0.2 34 Aomori 4 6 1 0.5 0.001 0 0.02 12 Iwate 4 3 1 1 0.01 0.1 0.1 9 National Total 161 145 74 109 1 9 65 564
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 19 Release Estimation Combustion Engine Hot-start ✓ Cold-start ✓ Evaporation ✓ Abrasion ※ not estimated (necessary data not available)
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 20 Travelled Distance (km/y-car) Release (kg/y-car) by substance THC Emission Factor (mg/km) Substance/THC Ratio (weight %) By substance
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 21 Travelling speed (km/h) Travelling speed (km/h) THCEmissionFactor(mg/km-travelled) Passenger Cars Trucks THCEmissionFactor(mg/km-travelled)
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 22 Gasoline cars Diesel passenger cars Substance/THC Ratio (weight %) Substance/THC Ratio (weight %)
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 23 Highway Obser- vation Point Average number of cars passed in 24 hours (weekdays) Motor- bikes Passenger cars Trucks Total CarsPassenger cars Busses Light trucks Heavy trucks 1 Chuo Express way Point A 740 61,099 1,624 12,827 12,341 87,891 Point B 777 62,858 1,270 13,162 13,042 90,332 … … … … … … … 16 National Route 16 Point A 1,614 47,489 624 13,757 20,163 82,033 Point B 1,805 33,238 215 9,774 13,450 56,677 … … … … … … … 20 National Route 20 Point A 2,434 25,546 333 9,936 5,034 40,849 Point B 22,589 329 7,028 6,454 36,400 … … … … … … … … …
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 24 Paint Application Releases Outside Notification Notified Releases Non-listed Industries HouseholdsBuilding Construction (excluding building) Road pavingHousing Other buildings Building ✓ ✓ Other construction ✓ Traffic paints ✓ Households ✓ Other applications (e.g. manufacturing) ✓
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 25 Paint type Shipment (t/y) Building materials Ships Cars(new) Carrepair Machinery Metal product … Total Solvents Acrylic Synthetics Room- temperature 2,131 1,785 2,432 5,096 585, 766 … 37,125 Bake & Dry … … … … … … … 40,775 Bake & Dry high solid … … … … … … … 8,992 … … … … … … … … … … Solution … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Total 69,680 122,048 192,159 26,497 36,551 118,585 … 1,362,939
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 26 Paint type Solvent Plasticizer Pigments Thinner Subst- amceA ubst- amceB … ubst- amceC … ubst- amceD … ubst- amceE … Dilution Rate Solvents Acrylic Synthetics Room- temperature 3% 11% … 0.5% … 0.2% … 8% … 16% Bake & Dry 2% 8% … - … 5% … 15% … 25% Bake &Dry high solid … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Solution … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 27 Standard Contents of Substances (%) by Paint type Release (t/y) by substance Emission Rate (%) National Shipment (t/y) by Paint type & Application Use (t/y) by substance
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 28 Application Releases Outside Notification Non-listed Industries Households Cosmetics ✓ Body soaps ✓ Kitchen detergents etc. ✓ Industrial detergents ✓ Fertilizers ✓
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 29 Application Substance A Substance B … Total Perfume & medical products 113 29 … 6,602 Body soaps 67 5 … 7,745 Kitchen detergents … … … … Laundry detergents … … … … Industrial detergents (kitchens) … … … … Industrial detergents (laundry & house cleaning) … … … … Fertilizers … … … … Others … … … … Total 54,836 3,747 … 199,575
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 30 Release (t/y) by substance Emission Rate (%) National Shipment (t/y) by Application & Substance
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 31 Substance Shipment (kg/y) TotalBusiness use House- holds 22 5-amino-1-[2,6-dichloro-4-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]-3- cyano-4-[(trifluoromethyl)sulfinyl]pyrazole 8,599 8,599 30 n-alkylbenzenesulfonic acid and its salts(alkyl C=10-14) 1,104 1,104 53 ethylbenzene 16 16 57 ethylene glycol monoethyl ether 546 546 64 2-(4-ethoxyphenyl)-2-methylpropyl 3-phenoxybenzyl ether 3,674 500 4,174 80 xylene 6,116 6,116 … … … … Total 61,751 49,213 110,964
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 32 Release (t/y) by substance Emission Rate (%) National Shipment (t/y) by Substance
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 33 Estimated releases Notified releases Amounthandledperyear perbusinessoperator 1t (0.5t) 21 Number of workers per business operator
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 34 2 Approaches Combined I. Estimation By Release Sources  Focus on End Products (paints, adhesives, etc.)  Statistics on shipments are available II. Estimation Based On Average Amounts Of Substances Handled  Focus on Average Amount of Substances Handled  Data by industry & by substance are specifically collected for PRTR ※ Releases overlapping 1. above will be subtracted later-on
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 35 Release Sources Descriptions 1. Paints Solvents used in paints painted on industrial products, thinner 2. Adhesives Solvents used in adhesives for industrial products, pressure-sensitive tapes, sheets, etc. 3. Printing inks Solvents used in printing inks for industrial products, thinners 4. Industrial cleaners Industrial cleaning solvents, dry-cleaning solvents, etc. 5. Rubber glues Solvents used in adhesives for industrial rubber products 6. Fuel evaporation Vapor loss at gas stations 7. Chemical feedstock Feedstock, reaction solvent 8. Removers Paint removers 9. Sterilizer, disinfectants Chemical agents to remove microbes 10. Surface finishers Acid agents to clean metal surface etc. …
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 36 Releases from business operators < thresholds (kg/y) in Industry A = Release from Industry A (kg/y) …(1) x Under-thresholds ratio (%) (※) …(2)
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 37 Paint type Shipment (t/y) Building materials Ships Cars (new) Carrepair Machinery Metal product … Total Solvents Acrylic Synthetics Room- temperature 2,131 1,785 2,432 5,096 585, 766 … 37,125 Bake & Dry … … … … … … … 40,775 Bake & Dry high solid … … … … … … … 8,992 … … … … … … … … … … Solution … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Total 69,680 122,048 192,159 26,497 36,551 118,585 … 1,362,939 Standard Contents of Substance (%) by Paint type In Automobile Industry Release (t/y) by substance In Automobile Industry Emission Rate (%) In Automobile Industry National Shipment (t/y) by Paint type In Automobile Industry Use (t/y) by substance In Automobile Industry Business Category using Paints e.g. “Cars (new)” => Listed Industry e.g. Automobile Industry
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 38 Release (t/y) by substance In Industry A Under-thresholds ratio (%) In Industry A Release (t/y) of business operators < thresholds by substance In Industry A Data on number of workers In Industry A Data on standard amounts of substances handled per year In Industry A (1)
Estimated releases Notified releases Amounthandledperyear q = 1t (0.5t) p = 21 2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 39 Parameters p q Workers < 21 Handled amount < 1t (0.5t) E1 = A×p×（1-q） E2 = A×q A: Release from Industry A Number of workers Estimated releases 1 (E1) Estimated releases 2 (E2) Release from Industry A
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 40 p q Workers < 21 Handled amount < 1t (0.5t) “Economic Census” & other statistics concerning number of workers per business operator Sample survey with business operators in all business categories, specifically conducted for PRTR
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 41
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 42
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 43 Rank Handle per Year Total Release per Year 1 2 3 4 Chemical Industry Metal/Machinery Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Non- Manufacturing kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion 1 100kg < 460 0.1% 1,816 0.1% 1,198 0.1% 352 2.3% 2 100～500kg 1,878 0.4% 5,575 0.3% 10,677 0.6% 834 5.5% 3 500kg～1t 1,732 0.4% 19,405 0.9% 11,718 0.7% 445 3.0% 4 1～10t 38,297 8.5% 401,939 18.2% 137,093 7.7% 13,444 89.2% 5 10～100t 230,952 51.0% 1,438,421 65.2% 924,117 51.7% 6 100～1,000t 127,456 28.2% 338,316 15.3% 703,345 39.3% 7 1,000～10,000t 51,832 11.5% 8 10,000 ～100,000t 9 100,000t or more Grand Total 452,609 100.0% 2,205,471 100.0% 1,788,149 100.0% 15,076 100.0%
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 44 Rank Handle per Year Total Release per Year 1 2 3 4 Chemical Industry Metal/Machinery Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Non- Manufacturing kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion 1 100kg < 460 0.1% 1,816 0.1% 1,198 0.1% 352 2.3% 2 100～500kg 1,878 0.4% 5,575 0.3% 10,677 0.6% 834 5.5% 3 500kg～1t 1,732 0.4% 19,405 0.9% 11,718 0.7% 445 3.0% 4 1～10t 38,297 8.5% 401,939 18.2% 137,093 7.7% 13,444 89.2% 5 10～100t 230,952 51.0% 1,438,421 65.2% 924,117 51.7% 6 100～1,000t 127,456 28.2% 338,316 15.3% 703,345 39.3% 7 1,000～10,000t 51,832 11.5% 8 10,000 ～100,000t 9 100,000t or more Grand Total 452,609 100.0% 2,205,471 100.0% 1,788,149 100.0% 15,076 100.0%
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 45 PRTR Substance Main Application 20 2-aminoethanol Detergents 31 antimony and its compounds Flame retardants 127 chloroform Sterilizers 133 2-ethoxyethyl acetate Solvents for paints, inks, etc. …
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 46 No. of business operators < thresholds by substance In Industry A Standard release (kg/y) per Substance In Industry A Release (t/y) of business operators < thresholds by substance In Industry A Data on standard amounts of substances handled per year In Industry A ※ same as Sample Survey Emission Rate (%) per Substance In Industry A ※ same as Sample Survey No. of business operators In Industry A ※ same as “Economic Census” Rate (%) of business operators by substance In Industry A ※ same as Sample Survey No. of business operators which notified PRTR release by substance In Industry A ※ PRTR data
2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 47 3 patterns for distribution ① Releases are proportional to industrial activities  Distribution index based on economic data (e.g. Economic Census, PRTR Notification Data)  Ex. Listed Industries < thresholds, Paints etc. (excluding releases from households) ② Releases are proportional to population or households  Distribution index based on population data (e.g. Population Census)  Ex. Paints, Insecticides, etc. (only releases from households) ② Releases are proportional to other index  Distribution index based on other data (e.g. distance travelled by car, number of breaking pads)  Ex. Cars, Railroad Wagons, etc. ② Estimation made at the prefecture level  Ex. Pesticides, Aircrafts, etc.
3. Summary 48 Keys for Estimating Releases ① Shared interests among stakeholders regarding the target release sources & substances  Stakeholders include the regulators and regulated alike  The interests in estimating which substances and which release sources are commonly shared ② Availability of statistics and other data  Data include national statistics on business and population, as well as the data from the business associations ③ Close collaboration with business associations and inter- ministerial cooperation  Especially conducting surveys with enterprises  Data and statistics may be available from MLIT etc.
☺ Presentation materials are also available in electric forms ☺ Your enquiries are welcome at… Yayoi Hayashi, Research Division <y.hayashi@ries.co.jp> 49

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Prtr non point estimate method in japan

  • 1.
    Yayoi Hayashi Research Institutefor Environmental Strategies, Inc. 2012.7.20
  • 2.
    2 1. Overall pictureof Estimated Releases Outside Notification Release Sources Estimated; Overall Picture Estimated Releases; Overall Picture 2. Estimation Techniques; Examples General descriptions Pesticides Cars Paints Households (detergents; surfactants, insecticides; termite control agents) Listed Industries under the Reporting Thresholds Very Brief Notes on Prefectural Distribution 3. Summary Keys for Estimating Releases
  • 3.
  • 4.
    1. Overall picture 4 Classification Release (1,000 t/y) Compos- ition Notified183 40% Estimated Listed Industries 47 10% Non-listed Industries 90 20% Households 59 13% Mobile Sources 75 17% Total 270 60% Grand Total 453 100%
  • 5.
    1. Overall picture 5 0 届出 ( 2 1 Release (t/y) No. Pre- fectures 21,000 or more 2 14,000 - 21,000 10 7,000 - 14,000 11 0 - 7,000 24
  • 6.
    1. Overall picture 6 63 32 14 0.13 14 13 0.019 0.30 0.097 0.98 50 45 17 28 1.9 3.0 15 14 12 8.8 050 100 150 toluene xylene ethylbenzene poly(oxyethylene)alkyl ether(alkyl C=12-15) dichloromethane n-hexane n-alkylbenzenesulfonic acid and its salts(alkyl C=10-14) chlorodifluoromethane dichlorobenzene benzene Grand Total Top 10 Substances Notified Estimated (113) (77) (32) (9.8) (28) (16) (16) (15) (14) (12) （ ）: Grand total releases （1,000 t/y）
  • 7.
    1. Overall picture 7 Notified& Estimated Releases for Specific Class I Designated Chemical Substances (※) PRTR Substances Notified （kg/y） Estimated（kg/y） Grand Total （kg/y）Listed Industries Non-listed Industries Households Mobile Sources Total 400 benzene 976,095 131,885 776,822 62,243 7,875,720 8,846,670 9,822,765 411 formaldehyde 384,925 614,900 131,413 94,050 6,793,502 7,633,866 8,018,791 305 lead compounds 3,622,822 63,322 40,166 103,488 3,726,310 351 1,3-butadiene 100,117 111 33,360 76,265 2,230,821 2,340,556 2,440,673 332 arsenic and its inorganic compounds 1,150,558 483 483 1,151,041 309 nickel compounds 498,927 102,241 102,241 601,168 56 ethylene oxide 243,606 134,688 134,688 378,293 94 chloroethylene 231,257 1,800 1,800 233,057 75 cadmium and its compounds 122,543 100 100 122,643 88 chromium(VI) compounds 9,202 3,750 9,243 12,994 22,196 385 2-bromopropane 5,278 0.2 0.2 5,278 394 beryllium and its compounds 17 663 663 680 33 asbestos 0 70 70 70 397 benzylidyne trichloride 0.1 0 0.1 243 dioxins 353,659 34,943 14,824 60 1,000 50,827 404,486 Total 7,345,347 1,053,944 991,005 232,558 16,900,113 19,177,620 26,522,966
  • 8.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 8 Example Method Description 1. Paints Top–down Estimated from national shipment 2. Pesticides Semi-top down Estimated from prefectural shipment 3. Cars (hot start) Semi-bottom up Estimated from traffic volume & emission factor, but only highways are covered (smaller streets are not) 4. Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds Top-down & Bottom-up Combined One part estimated from national shipment, Another part estimated from mean amounts of substances handled per business operator Discussion Points ① Two estimation methods Top-down & Bottom-up
  • 9.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 9 Discussion Points ② In general, the results from Top-down method are better in terms of uncertainty = preferred method  Statistics, other data = critical factor for estimation projects common to all countries ③ When Top-down method is not possible;  Bottom-up method can be envisaged through sample surveys in order to gather emission factors, amounts of substances used, etc.  it may be necessary to conduct a new set of survey specifically for PRTR ④ In addition to ①-③ above;  an estimation result needs to be assorted into notified release & release outside notification, in order to avoid double-counting
  • 10.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 10 Categories Examples of Release Sources Products containing substances Pesticides, paints, adhesives, detergents, etc. Mobile sources Cars, motorbikes, ships, aircrafts, etc. Others Drinking water (trihalomethane), Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds
  • 11.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 11 Release Sources Examples of Existing Data Data Source Databasedon legal requirement National statistics Business Associations’ voluntary survey Others Pesticides Shipment (t/y) by pesticide & prefecture Active Substances’ contents (%) by pesticide “Pesticides Catalogue” (handbook) published by Japan Plant Protection Association ✓ Paints Shipment (t/y) by paint type & application Standard chemical contents (%) by paint type & application Standard emission rate (%) during painting Voluntary survey by Japan Paint Manufacturers’ Association ✓ Cars Traffic volume (no. of cars travelled/24h) by highway & its sector “Road Traffic Census” by MLIT ✓ Emission factor (mg/km-travelled) Research by MOE ✓ Listed Industry under the reporting thresholds Shipment (t/y) by paint type & application (same as “Paints” above) etc. Business associations ✓ Notified release (kg/y) by business category & substance “PRTR Data” published by MOE/METI ✓
  • 12.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 12 Release Sources Examples of Data Specifically Collected for PRTR Data Sources Termite control agents  Volume of substance (kg/y) used for producing the agents Sample survey with manufacturers by MOE Railroad (breaking pads’ abrasion etc.) Number of breaking pads etc. (piece) containing asbestos Survey with railroad companies by MLIT Aircrafts Number of landing (time/y) by airport & fleet type Survey results compiled by business association (Scheduled Airlines Association of Japan) Listed Industries under the reporting thresholds Volume of substance (kg/y-business operator) used by application Sample survey with business operators in all business categories by METI
  • 13.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 13 Application Estimation division Source Classifications Listed Industries Non-listed Industries House- holdsAgri- culture Forestry Services Rice Rice paddies ✓ Fruits Orchards ✓ Vegetables Crop fields ✓ Others Households ✓ Golf courses ✓ Forestry ✓ Others ✓ ✓
  • 14.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 14 Pesticide name Pesticide A Pesticide B Pesticide C Pesticide D Pesticide … Pesticide code 10313 10316 1030 10353 10360 Prefecture Hokkaido 1.6 4.8 - 98.2 2.6 Aomori 13.7 5.0 - 303.4 0.6 Iwate 2.1 9.5 - 15.7 6.9 …
  • 15.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 15 Pesticide code Pesticide name Active agent Support agent 10809 BPMC/MEP Emulsion MEP (251), BPMC (428) Xylene (80) 22300 thiram/TPN wettable powder TPN (260), Thiram (268) N.A. 33987 xxxx powder N.A. poly(oxyethylene)alkyl ether(alkyl C=12-15) (407) 44562 xxxx emulsion pendimethalin (49), linuron (174) Xylene (80), naphthalene (302), Methyl-naphthalene (438)
  • 16.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 16 Content (%) of substance per pesticide Release (t/y) by substance, prefecture & application Shipment (t/y) by pesticide, prefecture & application Composition of used amount (%) by application (rice, fruits, vegetables etc.) per pesticide Shipment (t/y) by pesticide & prefecture
  • 17.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 17 Households Crop fields Orchards Rice paddies Others Hokkaido Aomori Iwate National
  • 18.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 18 Prefecture Release (t/y) Rice paddies Orch ards Crop fields Househ olds Golf courses Forests Others Total Hokkaido 17 2 11 4 0 0.1 0.2 34 Aomori 4 6 1 0.5 0.001 0 0.02 12 Iwate 4 3 1 1 0.01 0.1 0.1 9 National Total 161 145 74 109 1 9 65 564
  • 19.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 19 Release Estimation Combustion Engine Hot-start ✓ Cold-start ✓ Evaporation ✓ Abrasion ※ not estimated (necessary data not available)
  • 20.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 20 Travelled Distance (km/y-car) Release (kg/y-car) by substance THC Emission Factor (mg/km) Substance/THC Ratio (weight %) By substance
  • 21.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 21 Travelling speed (km/h) Travelling speed (km/h) THCEmissionFactor(mg/km-travelled) Passenger Cars Trucks THCEmissionFactor(mg/km-travelled)
  • 22.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 22 Gasoline cars Diesel passenger cars Substance/THC Ratio (weight %) Substance/THC Ratio (weight %)
  • 23.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 23 Highway Obser- vation Point Average number of cars passed in 24 hours (weekdays) Motor- bikes Passenger cars Trucks Total CarsPassenger cars Busses Light trucks Heavy trucks 1 Chuo Express way Point A 740 61,099 1,624 12,827 12,341 87,891 Point B 777 62,858 1,270 13,162 13,042 90,332 … … … … … … … 16 National Route 16 Point A 1,614 47,489 624 13,757 20,163 82,033 Point B 1,805 33,238 215 9,774 13,450 56,677 … … … … … … … 20 National Route 20 Point A 2,434 25,546 333 9,936 5,034 40,849 Point B 22,589 329 7,028 6,454 36,400 … … … … … … … … …
  • 24.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 24 Paint Application Releases Outside Notification Notified Releases Non-listed Industries HouseholdsBuilding Construction (excluding building) Road pavingHousing Other buildings Building ✓ ✓ Other construction ✓ Traffic paints ✓ Households ✓ Other applications (e.g. manufacturing) ✓
  • 25.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 25 Paint type Shipment (t/y) Building materials Ships Cars(new) Carrepair Machinery Metal product … Total Solvents Acrylic Synthetics Room- temperature 2,131 1,785 2,432 5,096 585, 766 … 37,125 Bake & Dry … … … … … … … 40,775 Bake & Dry high solid … … … … … … … 8,992 … … … … … … … … … … Solution … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Total 69,680 122,048 192,159 26,497 36,551 118,585 … 1,362,939
  • 26.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 26 Paint type Solvent Plasticizer Pigments Thinner Subst- amceA ubst- amceB … ubst- amceC … ubst- amceD … ubst- amceE … Dilution Rate Solvents Acrylic Synthetics Room- temperature 3% 11% … 0.5% … 0.2% … 8% … 16% Bake & Dry 2% 8% … - … 5% … 15% … 25% Bake &Dry high solid … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Solution … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …
  • 27.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 27 Standard Contents of Substances (%) by Paint type Release (t/y) by substance Emission Rate (%) National Shipment (t/y) by Paint type & Application Use (t/y) by substance
  • 28.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 28 Application Releases Outside Notification Non-listed Industries Households Cosmetics ✓ Body soaps ✓ Kitchen detergents etc. ✓ Industrial detergents ✓ Fertilizers ✓
  • 29.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 29 Application Substance A Substance B … Total Perfume & medical products 113 29 … 6,602 Body soaps 67 5 … 7,745 Kitchen detergents … … … … Laundry detergents … … … … Industrial detergents (kitchens) … … … … Industrial detergents (laundry & house cleaning) … … … … Fertilizers … … … … Others … … … … Total 54,836 3,747 … 199,575
  • 30.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 30 Release (t/y) by substance Emission Rate (%) National Shipment (t/y) by Application & Substance
  • 31.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 31 Substance Shipment (kg/y) TotalBusiness use House- holds 22 5-amino-1-[2,6-dichloro-4-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]-3- cyano-4-[(trifluoromethyl)sulfinyl]pyrazole 8,599 8,599 30 n-alkylbenzenesulfonic acid and its salts(alkyl C=10-14) 1,104 1,104 53 ethylbenzene 16 16 57 ethylene glycol monoethyl ether 546 546 64 2-(4-ethoxyphenyl)-2-methylpropyl 3-phenoxybenzyl ether 3,674 500 4,174 80 xylene 6,116 6,116 … … … … Total 61,751 49,213 110,964
  • 32.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 32 Release (t/y) by substance Emission Rate (%) National Shipment (t/y) by Substance
  • 33.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 33 Estimated releases Notified releases Amounthandledperyear perbusinessoperator 1t (0.5t) 21 Number of workers per business operator
  • 34.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 34 2 Approaches Combined I. Estimation By Release Sources  Focus on End Products (paints, adhesives, etc.)  Statistics on shipments are available II. Estimation Based On Average Amounts Of Substances Handled  Focus on Average Amount of Substances Handled  Data by industry & by substance are specifically collected for PRTR ※ Releases overlapping 1. above will be subtracted later-on
  • 35.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 35 Release Sources Descriptions 1. Paints Solvents used in paints painted on industrial products, thinner 2. Adhesives Solvents used in adhesives for industrial products, pressure-sensitive tapes, sheets, etc. 3. Printing inks Solvents used in printing inks for industrial products, thinners 4. Industrial cleaners Industrial cleaning solvents, dry-cleaning solvents, etc. 5. Rubber glues Solvents used in adhesives for industrial rubber products 6. Fuel evaporation Vapor loss at gas stations 7. Chemical feedstock Feedstock, reaction solvent 8. Removers Paint removers 9. Sterilizer, disinfectants Chemical agents to remove microbes 10. Surface finishers Acid agents to clean metal surface etc. …
  • 36.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 36 Releases from business operators < thresholds (kg/y) in Industry A = Release from Industry A (kg/y) …(1) x Under-thresholds ratio (%) (※) …(2)
  • 37.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 37 Paint type Shipment (t/y) Building materials Ships Cars (new) Carrepair Machinery Metal product … Total Solvents Acrylic Synthetics Room- temperature 2,131 1,785 2,432 5,096 585, 766 … 37,125 Bake & Dry … … … … … … … 40,775 Bake & Dry high solid … … … … … … … 8,992 … … … … … … … … … … Solution … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Total 69,680 122,048 192,159 26,497 36,551 118,585 … 1,362,939 Standard Contents of Substance (%) by Paint type In Automobile Industry Release (t/y) by substance In Automobile Industry Emission Rate (%) In Automobile Industry National Shipment (t/y) by Paint type In Automobile Industry Use (t/y) by substance In Automobile Industry Business Category using Paints e.g. “Cars (new)” => Listed Industry e.g. Automobile Industry
  • 38.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 38 Release (t/y) by substance In Industry A Under-thresholds ratio (%) In Industry A Release (t/y) of business operators < thresholds by substance In Industry A Data on number of workers In Industry A Data on standard amounts of substances handled per year In Industry A (1)
  • 39.
    Estimated releases Notified releases Amounthandledperyear q =1t (0.5t) p = 21 2. Estimation Techniques; Examples 39 Parameters p q Workers < 21 Handled amount < 1t (0.5t) E1 = A×p×（1-q） E2 = A×q A: Release from Industry A Number of workers Estimated releases 1 (E1) Estimated releases 2 (E2) Release from Industry A
  • 40.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 40 p q Workers < 21 Handled amount < 1t (0.5t) “Economic Census” & other statistics concerning number of workers per business operator Sample survey with business operators in all business categories, specifically conducted for PRTR
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 43 Rank Handle per Year Total Release per Year 1 2 3 4 Chemical Industry Metal/Machinery Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Non- Manufacturing kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion 1 100kg < 460 0.1% 1,816 0.1% 1,198 0.1% 352 2.3% 2 100～500kg 1,878 0.4% 5,575 0.3% 10,677 0.6% 834 5.5% 3 500kg～1t 1,732 0.4% 19,405 0.9% 11,718 0.7% 445 3.0% 4 1～10t 38,297 8.5% 401,939 18.2% 137,093 7.7% 13,444 89.2% 5 10～100t 230,952 51.0% 1,438,421 65.2% 924,117 51.7% 6 100～1,000t 127,456 28.2% 338,316 15.3% 703,345 39.3% 7 1,000～10,000t 51,832 11.5% 8 10,000 ～100,000t 9 100,000t or more Grand Total 452,609 100.0% 2,205,471 100.0% 1,788,149 100.0% 15,076 100.0%
  • 44.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 44 Rank Handle per Year Total Release per Year 1 2 3 4 Chemical Industry Metal/Machinery Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Non- Manufacturing kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion kg/y Contribut- ion 1 100kg < 460 0.1% 1,816 0.1% 1,198 0.1% 352 2.3% 2 100～500kg 1,878 0.4% 5,575 0.3% 10,677 0.6% 834 5.5% 3 500kg～1t 1,732 0.4% 19,405 0.9% 11,718 0.7% 445 3.0% 4 1～10t 38,297 8.5% 401,939 18.2% 137,093 7.7% 13,444 89.2% 5 10～100t 230,952 51.0% 1,438,421 65.2% 924,117 51.7% 6 100～1,000t 127,456 28.2% 338,316 15.3% 703,345 39.3% 7 1,000～10,000t 51,832 11.5% 8 10,000 ～100,000t 9 100,000t or more Grand Total 452,609 100.0% 2,205,471 100.0% 1,788,149 100.0% 15,076 100.0%
  • 45.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 45 PRTR Substance Main Application 20 2-aminoethanol Detergents 31 antimony and its compounds Flame retardants 127 chloroform Sterilizers 133 2-ethoxyethyl acetate Solvents for paints, inks, etc. …
  • 46.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 46 No. of business operators < thresholds by substance In Industry A Standard release (kg/y) per Substance In Industry A Release (t/y) of business operators < thresholds by substance In Industry A Data on standard amounts of substances handled per year In Industry A ※ same as Sample Survey Emission Rate (%) per Substance In Industry A ※ same as Sample Survey No. of business operators In Industry A ※ same as “Economic Census” Rate (%) of business operators by substance In Industry A ※ same as Sample Survey No. of business operators which notified PRTR release by substance In Industry A ※ PRTR data
  • 47.
    2. Estimation Techniques;Examples 47 3 patterns for distribution ① Releases are proportional to industrial activities  Distribution index based on economic data (e.g. Economic Census, PRTR Notification Data)  Ex. Listed Industries < thresholds, Paints etc. (excluding releases from households) ② Releases are proportional to population or households  Distribution index based on population data (e.g. Population Census)  Ex. Paints, Insecticides, etc. (only releases from households) ② Releases are proportional to other index  Distribution index based on other data (e.g. distance travelled by car, number of breaking pads)  Ex. Cars, Railroad Wagons, etc. ② Estimation made at the prefecture level  Ex. Pesticides, Aircrafts, etc.
  • 48.
    3. Summary 48 Keys forEstimating Releases ① Shared interests among stakeholders regarding the target release sources & substances  Stakeholders include the regulators and regulated alike  The interests in estimating which substances and which release sources are commonly shared ② Availability of statistics and other data  Data include national statistics on business and population, as well as the data from the business associations ③ Close collaboration with business associations and inter- ministerial cooperation  Especially conducting surveys with enterprises  Data and statistics may be available from MLIT etc.
  • 49.
    ☺ Presentation materialsare also available in electric forms ☺ Your enquiries are welcome at… Yayoi Hayashi, Research Division <y.hayashi@ries.co.jp> 49