Our global ecosystem is evolving. We have entered a new era, characterised by an increasingly complex mesh of interconnections and linkages across the world’s major resource groups: land, biomass, energy, fresh water, chemicals, manpower, and metals and minerals. Another parallel phenomenon is emerging: our digital and bio-based worlds are also converging. We are living in what we call the ‘Age of Confluence’. It is time for industries to understand and master the bio-economic implications of these interconnections – or risk facing serious issues, which cut deep into the core of a sustainable future.

1. Pöyry Point of View:
Shaping the next future
Areyoureadyfor
theAgeof
Confluence?

2. 2 | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
Our global ecosystem is evolving. We
have entered a new era, characterised
by an increasingly complex mesh of
interconnections and linkages across the
world’s major resource groups: land, biomass,
energy, fresh water, chemicals, manpower,
and metals and minerals. Another parallel
phenomenon is emerging: our digital and
bio-based worlds are also converging. We are
living in what we call the ‘Age of Confluence’.
It is time for industries to understand and
master the bio-economic implications of
these interconnections – or risk facing serious
issues, which cut deep into the core of a
sustainable future.
TheAgeof
Confluence
In this landmark Point of View we explore
the tensions as our bioeconomy unfolds and
reshapes. We consider the practical ways to
overcome these challenges and drive for a
sustainable biofuture. Key questions include:
• Why does the ethical dimension of a
sustainable biofuture matter?
• Why do we need to re-calculate costs based
on the bigger picture?
• Why do we need to re-plan sustainable
strategies outside the silos?
• How do we achieve real end-to-end
sustainability in biofuels?
Rio+20, entitled ‘The
Future We Want’
In June 2012, world leaders approved the
outcome document for Rio+20, entitled
‘The Future We Want’. The foundations
for social, economic and environmental
well-being were set out and calls
were made for a wide range of actions
wherein sustainability continues to play a
fundamental role in how nations live and
do business. Albeit criticised for lacking
commitment, detail and measurable
targets, these global initiatives together
with national mandates and obligations,
generate a renewed call for industry
to pioneer the next generation of
technologies to tackle climate change.
Why does the ethical dimension of a
sustainable biofuture matter?
The Rio+20 agreement recognises that
people are at the centre of sustainable
development and reaffirms the importance of
the Universal Declaration of Human Rights as
well as other related international instruments.
These human aspects form the intrinsic part
of the social dimension of sustainability, which
affects the very fabric of society, culture and
human development. The ethical dimension is
implemented in policy frameworks, operating
guidelines, and business codes of conduct
that govern our daily actions and activities.
The ethical aspects are becoming more
and more important and are recognised
as a fundamental part of the sustainable
development and production of biofuels,
which should not be practiced at the expense
of people’s essential rights. Instead biofuels
should develop in accordance with trade

3. 3PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
A properly planned and implemented
agroforestry system contributes to
all key dimensions of sustainability –
economic, environmental and social.
principles that are fair and recognise the
rights of people to just reward. It’s widely
recognised that basic human rights are
breached when production endangers local
food security or displaces local population
from the land they depend on for their daily
subsistence. [1] Indeed, the ‘food versus fuel’
debate is one of the most controversial topics
related to increased demand for biomass
sources. This discussion is mostly linked
to agriculture in respect of the adoption of
new land for production purposes, changes
in the types of crops grown, and changing
the intensity of variable inputs for individual
crops. The topic of food versus fuel continues
to remain in the spotlight despite the many
efforts showing that the role of biofuels has
a significantly smaller role in increasing food
prices compared to other factors such as the
increasing price of oil, variations in the crop
yields, and speculative trade.
Re-calculating costs based on the
bigger picture
Economic sustainability affects people’s
livelihoods, the economy and equitable wealth
distribution. The costs and benefits of bio-
based production should be distributed in a
fair way and the economic evaluation should
consider absolute costs and also compare
them to other options; when the costs of
biofuels are evaluated, other alternative
energy sources should also be considered
[1]. In addition to the actual absolute costs,
opportunity costs merit similar attention to
ensure a full assessment of the total costs in
comparison to the benefits and alternative
uses of the feedstock. For example, biomass
may be needed and used in cooking or
heating, which both service the fundamental
needs of local population, instead of making
use of it as a source of biofuels or other bio-
based products. Therefore, the economic
sustainability requires a much broader
approach than the simplistic evaluation of
the costs and return of investment of the
production plant only.

4. 4 | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
In our view, we are entering into the ‘Age of Confluence’ , wherein these interconnections
and linkages between all key resources are becoming more challenging yet essential to
master: land, biomass, energy, fresh water, chemicals, manpower and metals and minerals.
Achieving this complex balance and overcoming tensions calls for global expertise across
the value chain. Governments, investors and industry players alike need to become
conscious of the bigger picture interrelationships and re-think traditional approaches which
no longer serve strategies within the bioeconomy.
Masteringthecritical
interconnections:
societyandenvironment
Re-planning sustainable strategies
outside the silos
Efforts to achieve environmental sustainability
also in turn affect the biosphere, nature and
biodiversity. Scientific, political and public
concerns have been raised on the direct
and indirect impact of biomass harvesting
on land use. The environmental impact and
true greenhouse gas reduction potential of
biofuels are in doubt. The rapid growth of
energy crops could divert too much cropland
to energy crop production and/or to lead to
the cultivation of previously uncultivated land.
The changes in land use could bring about
significant CO2
emissions and thereby reduce
carbon sinks via deforestation and threaten
biodiversity by increasing monocultures.
Moreover, increasing the amount of
plantations can increase the use of fertilisers
and need for fresh water. Therefore, the new
cultivations could very well jeopardise the
expected environmental benefits of bio-based
production if not planned and implemented in
full compliance with sustainable practices.
The global dimensions of biomass sourcing
reflect the complexity of the value chain.
Transitioning to biofuel crops in one region
could mean import of food from another and/
or increase prices of common commodities
thereby making them less affordable for
daily subsistence. What this demonstrates
is that the interconnected effects of land use
are hard to trace and extremely difficult to
manage. It has even recently been argued
that large-scale bioenergy up to 20% of
current primary energy consumption from
additional harvest of forest biomass is neither
sustainable nor greenhouse gas neutral [2].
Achieving real end-to-end
sustainability in biofuels
Sustainable land use and sustainable
feedstock sourcing are without doubt key
factors for success for all industry sectors.
The Forest industry has for a long time
recognised the importance of sound forestry
and plantation practices and the importance
of certification. The quest for alternative fibre
sources has already started; for example,
Kimberly-Clark Corp. has committed to
cut the amount of wood fibre it uses from
natural forests by 50 percent by 2025 [3].
This implies that sustainability is increasingly
important, while the global certification of
biomass for fibre, energy and fuels still poses
a challenge as no broadly accepted common
criteria exist. [4] Large plants as a rule need
a huge amount of feedstock, which is not
necessarily locally available and may require
a multi-sourcing approach. The long term
security of supply with guaranteed access to
sustainable and certified feedstock poses a
major challenge to all new entrants.
Furthermore, it is not only the feedstock
sourcing but the entire biofuels’ production
and supply chain that has to be sustainable.
The abidance to this sustainability
requirement in the EU can be achieved either
via checking by Member States or through
voluntary schemes, which are approved by
the European Commission (EC). [5] Altogether
12 voluntary schemes have been recogniced
as of November 2012
Several EU Member States – Austria,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Ireland, Italy and the Netherlands – have

5. 5PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
introduced double counting provisions in
their national biofuel legislation. This means
that biofuels made from waste or cellulosic
feedstock are counted twice against the
national biofuel quotas. It is thus possible
to improve the competitive edge of new
production by making use of the waste and
residues from agriculture, forestry operations
or urban living. This approach benefits from
the complementary use of feedstocks and
allows at least a part of the residue materials
to be extracted for valuable products. New
agroforestry practices may also contribute
to feedstock sourcing as might algae once
it becomes economically attractive and
available in large enough amounts.

6. 6 | PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW
We are entering a new era: “Age of
Confluence”
When considering the concomitant growth
of population and increasing need of food,
energy, and fuels, while also increasing the
share of biomass, balancing the competing
demands for nutrients, water and raw materials
are essential for success. Consequently, it is
becoming increasingly important to address
and understand the complexity, and the
critical interconnections with the environment
and society, along the value chain from fields
to markets.
Pöyry has for decades contributed to creating
a sustainable future by building on the strong
heritage of the company in forest industry.
Currently, our “Engineering balanced
sustainabilityTM” approach strives to achieve
the optimal balance between economic,
environmental and social dimensions for
every project. However, we know this is only
the beginning. The old Chinese curse ‘May
you be born in interesting times’ has hit us.
It seems obvious that we are heading for a
discontinuity, where global roles and actions in
trade, politics, industry, technology and social
interaction are in the cooking pot, being stirred
heavily: and we can be sure that the outcome
will change daily life within a globalised world.
There are more questions than answers.
Sources
[1] Biofuels: ethical issues, Nuffield Council on
Bioethics, April 2011
[2] E-D. Schulze, C. Körner, B.E. Law, H. Haberl and
S. Luyssaert, GCB Bioenergy, 2012, 1-4
[3] Press Release, Kimberly Clark, June 19 2012
[4] J. van Dam, Initiatives in the field of biomass and
bioenergy certification, IEA Bioenergy Task40, April
2010
[5] http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/biofuels/
sustainability_schemes_en.htm
Bioeconomy encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and their
conversion into food, feed, bio-based products and bioenergy. It includes agriculture, forestry,
fisheries, food and pulp and paper production as well as parts of chemical, biotechnological
and energy industries. Its sectors have a strong innovation potential due to their use of a
wide range of sciences (life sciences, agronomy, ecology, food science and social sciences),
enabling and industrial technologies (biotechnology, nanotechnology, information and
communication technologies and engineering) and local and tacit knowledge.
Hence, we dedicate a great deal of effort
trying to understand the emerging key drivers
and finding the way through the ongoing
transition for us and our client industries and
consumers.
‘The Age of Confluence’ is one of the central
game changers we have identified, and it
is closely related to the reshaping of the
bioeconomy – another game changer. It is in
our opinion actually not even necessary to talk
about a sustainable future: that is the only real
option we have.
Strivingtoachievezero
wasteandbest-in-class
performance

7. 7PÖYRY POINT OF VIEW |
Copyright © 2012 Pöyry Management Consulting Oy
All rights are reserved to Pöyry Management Consulting Oy.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form without the prior written permission of
Pöyry Management Consulting Oy (“Pöyry”).
Disclaimer
While Pöyry considers that the information and opinions given in this publication are sound, all parties must rely upon their own skill and judgement when making use of it. This
publication is partly based on information that is not within Pöyry’s control. Therefore, Pöyry does not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the
accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication. Pöyry expressly disclaims any and all liability arising out of or relating to the use of this publication.
This publication contains projections which are based on assumptions subjected to uncertainties and contingencies. Because of the subjective judgements and inherent
uncertainties of projections, and because events frequently do not occur as expected, there can be no assurance that the projections contained herein will be realised and actual
results may be different from projected results. Hence the projections supplied are not to be regarded as firm predictions of the future, but rather as illustrations of what might
happen.
Staying on top of your game means keeping
up with the latest thinking, trends and
developments. We know that this can
sometimes be tough as the pace of change
continues...
At Pöyry, we encourage our global network
of experts to actively contribute to the debate
- generating fresh insight and challenging
the status quo. The Pöyry Point of View is
our practical, accessible and issues-based
approach to sharing our latest thinking.
We invite you to take a look – please let us
know your thoughts.
AboutthePöyry
PointofView
R
www.linkedin.com/
company/Poyry
@PoyryPlc
#PoyryPOV
www.youtube.com/
PoyryPlc
www.facebook.com/
PoyryPlc
Join the debate

8. www.poyry.com
Pöyry is an international consulting and engineering company. We serve clients globally across
the energy and industrial sectors and locally in our core markets. We deliver strategic advisory
and engineering services, underpinned by strong project implementation capability and
expertise. Our focus sectors are power generation, transmission & distribution, forest
industry, chemicals & biorefining, mining & metals, transportation, water and real estate
sectors. Pöyry has an extensive local office network employing about 6,500 experts.
AUSTRALIA
Melbourne
Phone: +61 3 9863 3700
AUSTRIA
Vienna
Phone: +43 1 6411 800
BRAZIL
Curitiba
Phone: +55 41 3252 7665
São Paulo
Phone: +55 11 5187 5555
CHINA
Shanghai
Phone: +86 21 6115 9660
FINLAND
Helsinki
Phone: +358 10 3311
FRANCE
Paris
Phone: +33 156 88 2710
GERMANY
Düsseldorf
Phone: +49 211 175 2380
Munich
Phone: +49 89 954771 62
INDONESIA
Jakarta
Phone: +62 21 527 5552
ITALY
Milano
Phone: +39 02 3659 6900
NEW ZEALAND
Auckland
Phone: +64 9 918 1100
NORWAY
Oslo
Phone: +47 4540 5000
RUSSIA
Moscow
Phone: +7 495 937 5257
SINGAPORE
Phone: +65 6733 3331
SPAIN
Madrid
Phone: +34 615 457 290
SWEDEN
Stockholm
Phone: +46 8 528 01200
SWITZERLAND
Zurich
Phone: +41 44 288 9090
THAILAND
Bangkok
Phone: +66 2 657 1000
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Dubai
Phone: +971 4 6069 500
UNITED KINGDOM
London
Phone: +44 207 932 8200
Oxford
Phone: +44 1865 722 660
USA
Atlanta
Phone: +1 404 351 5707
New York
Phone: +1 646 651 1547
Pöyry Management Consulting
Photo: colourbox.com