1. as determined through
the UNEP’s Foresight Process
&
the UNEP’s GEO Process
Emerging Environmental
Issues

2. What?
A systematic procedure for canvassing top
experts every two years  identify and
rank critical emerging issues.
Foresight Panel
22 distinguished scientists/experts – Broad
regional & disciplinary representation
Process:
1) Canvass of UNEP community 
identified 68 issues
2) Foresight Panel meetings  debated
95 issues  selected 21 priority issues
3) Electronic Consultation (Survey)  933
scientists worldwide  428 responses
The UNEP Foresight Process:
Regional Profile of Respondents to
Electronic Consultation
North
America
18%
West Asia
10%
Africa
17%
Europe
27%
Asia-Pacific
15%
Latin
America
and The
Caribbean
13%
Total responses from Scientists= 423
North
America
24%
West Asia
3%
Africa
19%
Asia-Pacific
19%
Europe
29%
Latin
America
and The
Caribbean
6%
Total Responses from Major Stakeholders= 329
Output  21 Issues for the 21st
century

3. Emerging themes: 10 most relevant issues
for LAC
i. Cross-Cutting Issues
Aligning governance to the challenges of global
sustainability
Broken bridges: Reconnecting science and policy
Social tipping points? Catalysing rapid and transformative
change in human behaviour for the environment
ii. Food, Land and Biodiversity issues
New challenges for ensuring food safety and food security
for the nine billion projected for 2050
The need for novel governance arrangements to promote
sustainable land management
iii. Freshwater and marine issues
The new challenges to water availability require that this
resource be used efficiently
The potential collapse of oceanic systems requires
integrated ocean governance
iv. Climate change
The need to take action in the face of signs of climate
change which manifest as increased frequency of extreme
weather events
v. Energy, Technology, and Waste Issues
Accelerating the implementation of renewable energy
systems
Greater risk than necessary? The need for new
approaches to minimising risks from new technologies

4. Cross-cutting Issues
Aligning Governance to the Challenges of Global Sustainability
Challenge: Current system of international environmental governance
(complexity of MEAs) unsuited for the 21st century? System lacks
representativeness, accountability, and effectiveness for the transition to
sustainability
Action: Higher level of participation and transparency. Harmonization of MEAs.
Explore range of governance structures – public-private partnerships; alliances
of civil society groups.

5. Broken Bridges: Reconnecting Science and Policy
The Challenge: Weakening connection between the policy and
science communities: public confidence lower, knowledge
fragmented across many institutions and databases. Hinders
development of solutions to global environmental change.
Actions: Need to re-examine how science is organized and how
science-policy interface can be improved: participatory
assessments, improved communication tools, innovative
approaches?
Social Tipping Points? Catalyzing Rapid and Transformative
Change in Human Behaviour for the Environment
Egypt, 2011
The Challenge: New social science research  How public policy can “rapidly” modify human
behaviour in positive direction (e.g. public attitudes towards smoking).
Actions: How to apply to sustainable consumption? What public incentives –
economic, informative, prohibitive – would work best to achieve a transition to sustainable
consumption?
Cross-cutting Issues

6. Food, Land and Biodiversity Issues
New Challenges for Ensuring Food Safety and Food Security
for the 9 Billion projected for 2050
Challenge – Competition from bioenergy production,
diminishing phosphorus supplies, increasing water
scarcity …
Actions – Improving the food-processing pathway, reducing
food waste, boosting agricultural efficiency, new Green
Revolution?
Challenge – Current land management approach seems to be
unsustainable. A new governance approach is needed.
Actions – Sustainable land management can be achieved through
new governance approach supported by four pillars:
• an economic system that values natural resources
• addressing competing demands for food, fuel, and animal feed
• creating sustainable consumption patterns that recognize and reduce
resource depletion and ecosystem degradation
• fostering capacity building and inclusive participatory approaches that
recognize local/indigenous values to land management.
Need for new governance approaches to promote sustainable land management

7. Freshwater and Marine Issues
Potential Collapses of Oceanic Systems Requires Integrated
Ocean Governance
Challenge – Acidification, overfishing, land & marine-based pollutions,
widespread habitat destruction and proliferation of invasive species 
posing threat to long-term integrity of oceans  current management
approach are ineffective for avoiding potential ocean collapse because
responsible bodies are currently widely dispersed
Actions – Reforms and new form of governance system which would
encourage countries to partner or have similar approach to governance
is needed  This could also take the form of a new coordinating body
under which countries can cooperate.
New Challenges to Water Availability Demands Efficient Water Usage
Challenge – Although water scarcity is not a new issue, new
challenges such as pollution caused by emerging contaminants
including pharmaceuticals, personal care products,
nanoparticles and microplastics and unsustainable usage
patterns, are worsening water availability.
Actions – Apart from finding solution to threats to water
availability caused by emerging contaminants, the efficient
usage of available water, demands adequate monitoring using
emerging metrics such as virtual water and water footprint, so
as to ensure an equitable distribution.

8. Climate Change Issues
Acting on the Signal of Climate Change in the Changing Frequency of
Extreme Weather Events
Challenge – Recent studies comparing modelling
and observatory results have confirmed hypothesis
that climate change could alter the frequency of
occurrence of extreme weather events.
Actions – These new
studies underline the urgency
for adapting to a changing
frequency of extreme
weather events and suggest
that “medium term” early
warning systems may be
possible.

9. Energy, Technology and Waste Issues
Accelerating the Implementation of Environmentally-
Friendly Renewable Energy Systems
Challenge – As the world seeks solutions to climate change it
looks increasingly towards implementing renewable energy
systems  But the large potential for renewable energy has not
been realized due to many barriers.
Actions – An important task is to identify the
means to remove the economic, regulatory,
and institutional disadvantages that make
renewable energy less competitive than
other conventional sources.

10. Greater Risk than Necessary: The Need for New Approaches to
Minimizing Risks of Novel Technologies and Toxic Chemicals
Challenge – We are fixed in a pattern by which society first produces new
technologies and chemicals and then ex post facto tries to evaluate their
impacts; e.g., synthetic biology and nanotechnology
Actions – A new approach is needed in which the implications of new
technologies and chemicals are first systematically and
comprehensively assessed before they reach production phase with the
aim to minimize their risks to society and nature.
Energy, Technology and Waste Issues

11. Summing Up Emerging Environmental Issues
 Compelling issues with broad consequences for many audiences
 Cover all major themes  climate, biodiversity, hazardous
substances and
waste, freshwater, land/food, energy, cities, oceans, coastal zone
 But also cross-cutting issues  governance, resource
consumption, human capabilities, science-policy chasm, social
tipping points, migration
 Cover both natural science & social science perspectives
 Based on credible & legitimate process – beyond ad hoc approach:
Derived from debate amongst a distinguished, representative
Foresight Panel with wide consultations within UNEP and external
scientific communities

12. as determined through
the UNEP’s Foresight Process
&
the UNEP’s GEO Process
Emerging Environmental
Issues